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Reports on many of these topics are also published in our W.Y.S.K-What-You-Should-Know (Asia Pacific and Europe), Net Value (NV), People-in-Travel (PinT), ZERO (the travel business and the environment) monthly-reports. Also in blogs (Foxtrots, Trottings), and social and business media (Facebook, Linked In). These may include some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
11 June 2021
[] IATA* reports air traffic for April (comparisons with same period in 2019, not 2020, unless otherwise noted):
-Worldwide RPKs -65.4%, ASKs -54.5%, load factor 63.3% -19.8pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -57.2%, Europe -81.5%, North America -50.7%.
-International RPKs -87.3% - Asia Pacific -94.4%, Europe -87.7%, North America -77.9%.
-Domestic RPKs -25.7% - Australia -34.4%, Brazil -60.9%, China +6.8%, India -42.0%, Japan -54.9%, Russia +11.0%, US -34.9%.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
[] Among the findings from a survey* for the UK government by Emburse*:
-45% said if offered a business trip, they would look forward to a break away from their household.
-44% of married respondents say they would be ‘excited’ to escape the house through business travel.
-47% with children say they would travel for work in order to get a break from their household.
-52% of those aged 18-34 would be keen to escape the house for business travel. 38% for those aged 55+.
-54% of those who take business trips look forward to travelling again.
-34% of those aged 18-24 (not 34, as above) are eager to get back travelling, 20% for those aged 45-54; data for ages 24-45 not given.
-37% look forward to staying in ‘nice hotels’.
-26% most look forward to exploring new cities and countries.
*Notes:
-Emburse provides expense management and accounts payable automation.
-Presented as a serious study, but we find most of the findings of little market value, and not even entertainment value.
[] Travel plans in France from a PAP Vacances* survey:
-May bookings for summer +30.7% (compared with 2019, not 2020 - although no explanation given for that), and +65.1% for holiday-home rentals.
-Seaside bookings were +24.4%, for a 77%share. CDA* was +47%.
-Top-5 seaside regions - Var (includes Ste Maxime, St Tropez) +56.1%, South Corsica +46.9%, North Corsica  +44.9%, Bouches-du-Rhone +43.9%, Gironde +43.6%.
-Top-5 seaside destinations - Les Issambres +103.2%, Ste Maxime +59.9%, Cap Breton +54.8%, Cap-Ferret +38.0%, Lacanau +35.9%.
-House rental prices grew about 13-16%.
*Notes:
-France-based PAPV rents holiday homes.
-CDA = Cote d’Azur in France - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is brand identity; knowing what is meant by CDA.

Travel business updates
10 June 2021
[] STR* reports on India hotels (categories as presented by STR):
-February occupancy 53.9%, 73% of February 2019. April 31.0%. May 23-30 (week of) 21.5%. 
-May 23-30 Mumbai city 43.2%, 60% of comparable week in 2019. Chennai state 38.3%, Gujarat state 32.2%.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-5 June occupancy 61.9% (-14.0%), average room rate US$123.49 (-6.7%)
-29 May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-15 May 59.1% (-16.4%) US$113.54 (-15.4%)
-8 May 56.7% US$110.19
-1 May 57.1% US$108.80
End-month 7-day periods:
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -64.2%. 2. -77.4%. 3. -84.1%. 4. -48.1%. 5. -67.3%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-June 6. 1. -33.0%. 2. -51.0%. 3. -67.5%. 4. -7.6%. 5. -38.9%.
-May 30. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-May 16. 1. -42.2%. 2. -60.0%. 3. -72.9%. 4. -16.5%. 5. -49.2%.
-May 9. 1. -46.4%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -75.2%. 4. -22.0%. 5. -53.0%.
-May 2. 1. -45.6%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -76.0%. 4. -19.4%. 5. -52.0%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
9 June 2021
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in May for US hotel companies was 5,148 -2.8% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +12.6%. Our database shows their end-2019 Index was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 208. Previous month 215; end-2019 195.
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 172. Previous month: 170; end-2019 211.
-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 219, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 178, US 428. Previous month: World 221, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 173, US 438. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+AirBnB, Amadeus) was at 169. Previous month 164; end-2019 160.
-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China travel companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 110. Previous month 106; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Travel business updates
8 June 2021
[] Travel Mole reports that JTB, Japan's largest travel agency group, reported an ‘annual’ loss of US$964mn (at US$1 to ¥109), compared to a US$14.5mn profit the ‘previous year’. TM does not define dates; JTB’s financial year is usually Apr-Mar.
[] WTTC* reports on the travel business (TTB) in Korea in 2020:
-TTB GDP US$39.9bn -45.5%. It was 2.4% of Korea’s total GDP; 2019 4.4%.
-Jobs in TTB 1.3mn -6.2%. (World -18.5%.)
-Domestic visitor spend -34%, international visitor spend -68%. (World -70%.)
-*If ‘mobility and international travel resume’ by June, WTTC forecasts world TTB contribution to GDP will be +48.5%.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, May
7 June 2021
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2021: Mar -58.4%E; Feb -76.9%P; Jan -79.6%. 2020: Dec -78.9%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2021: Mar -74.1%E; Feb -81.7%P; Jan -88.8%. 2020: Dec -91.2%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2021: Mar -64.2%E; Feb -80.8%P; Jan -81.1%. 2020: Dec -82.5%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2021: Mar -9.9%E; Feb -65.0%P; Jan -66.6%. 2020: Dec -68.9%.
[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2021: Apr 170; Mar 173; Feb 170; Jan 138. 2020: Dec 146; Nov 117. TBA.
[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Mar -26.3%; Feb -70.3%; Jan -72.0%. 2020: Dec -69.7%; Nov -70.3%. IATA.
[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Apr 215; Mar 207; Feb 205; Jan 178. 2020: Dec 178; Nov 175. TBA.
[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Apr 221; Mar 213; Feb 206; Jan 172. 2020: Dec 187; Nov 177. TBA.
[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2021: Apr 164; Mar 166; Feb 158; Jan 127. 2020: Dec 139. Net Value.
[] World visitor arrivals: 2021: Jan -86.7%. 2020: Dec -85.3%; Nov -87.7%; Oct -83.4%; Sep -79.6%. WTO.
[] AsPac air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Mar +11.8%; Feb -56.7%; Jan -71.5%. 2020: Dec -63.8%; Nov -61.6%. IATA.
[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Apr 52; Mar 54; Feb 52; Jan 46. 2020: Dec 49. TBA.
[] AsPac visitor arrivals, estimate: 2021: Jan -95.9%. 2020: Dec -95.1%; Nov -94.9%; Oct -97.2%. TBA.
[] Europe airport passengers, total: 2021: Feb -83.6%; Jan -80.3%. 2020: Dec -79.4%; Nov -83.2%. ACI.
[] Europe air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Mar -62.0%; Feb -82.8%; Jan -77.4%. 2020: Dec -77.5%; Nov -82.2%. IATA.
[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Apr 173; Mar 171; Feb 171; Jan 149. 2020: Dec 163. TBA.
[] Europe visitor arrivals: 2021: Jan -85.1%. 2020: Dec -85.3%; Nov -87.3%; Oct -76.1%; Sep -71.5%; Aug -66.8%. WTO.
[] US hotel occupancy: 2021: Mar +38.6%; Feb -29.6%; Jan -28.7%. 2020: Dec -32.5%; Nov -34.8%. STR.
[] US outbound travel, overseas: 2021: Feb -80.2%; Jan -80.2%. 2020: Dec -75.9%; Nov -81.9%; Oct -85.9%.
[] US travel agency sales: 2021: Apr +569.4%; Mar +120.4%; Feb -78.7%; Jan -85.6%. 2020: Dec -82.8%. ARC.
[] US travel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Apr 438; Mar 414; Feb 395; Jan 320. 2020: Dec 348. TBA.
[] US visitor arrivals, overseas (2017 restated Sep 18): 2021: Mar -56.3%; Feb -90.2%; Jan -87.0%.

Selected market indicators, latest
4 June 2021
On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Mar: AsPac -38.8%, Europe -74.1%, North America -48.6%, world -56.2%. IATA/TBA-estimates.
[] Germany visitor arrivals YT-Feb -92.3%.
[] Ryanair seat sales YT-Apr -87.8%.
[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, YT-Apr -94.7%.
[] Singapore visitor arrivals YT-Mar -97.4%.
[] US hotel occupancy YT-Mar % -10.2%. STR.
[] US travel agency US$ sales YT-Apr -48.3%. ARC.

US travel business updates
4 June 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-29 May occupancy 61.8% (-4.2%), average room rate US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-15 May 59.1% (-16.4%) US$113.54 (-15.4%)
-8 May 56.7% US$110.19
-1 May 57.1% US$108.80
-24 April 57.3% US$108.10
End-month 7-day periods:
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -65.1%. 2. -78.1%. 3. -84.5%. 4. -49.4%. 5. -68.2%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-May 30. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-May 16. 1. -42.2%. 2. -60.0%. 3. -72.9%. 4. -16.5%. 5. -49.2%.
-May 9. 1. -46.4%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -75.2%. 4. -22.0%. 5. -53.0%.
-May 2. 1. -45.6%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -76.0%. 4. -19.4%. 5. -52.0%.
-April 25. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Arrivals - world, AsPac
3 June 2021
[] WTO* reports Q1 world visitor arrivals -180mn -83%. Asia Pacific -94%, Europe -83%, Americas -71%. All-2020 was -73%. 
  Other findings:
-Visitor spend in 2020 fell -64% in real terms (local currencies, constant prices), equivalent to -US$900bn. Our database shows WTO reported US$1.47bn +3.0% in 2019.
-Loss in export revenues from visitor arrivals (including passenger transport) is -US$1.1tn. Asia Pacific -70%; other regions not given.
-60% of ‘experts’ surveyed by WTO forecast a ‘rebound’ in arrivals in 2022; the share was 50% in WTO’s January survey. 40% forecast a ‘potential rebound’ this year; ‘down slightly’ on January survey. 50% forecast a return to 2019 arrivals levels ‘before 2024 or later’ (presume mis-stated, as it means from now to any time in the future). 37% forecast a return to pre-covid levels in 2023; ‘somewhat decreased’ on January survey.
*Notes:
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-No additional clarification of phrases in quotation marks - none of which have a precise/useful meaning.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] PATA* forecasts/reports for Asia Pacific:
-Its revised data shows 126.5mn visitor arrivals* in 2020; earlier it reported 121.8mn. Our database shows WTO* reported 57.1mn -84.2% in 2020, 360.4mn +4.0% in 2019; WTO* has different criteria from PATA.
-Asia 2021 arrivals +51%. Asia Pacific +27%.
-Total 2021 arrivals 23% of 2019 arrivals. 2022 27-61% of 2019 arrivals, depending on the scenario, 2023 51-99%.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks; bad again?!
2 June 2021
Commentary (category numbers below):
-Wait a minute. Economic activity in some parts of the world, notably Europe and the US, are starting to recover from the covid damage. Why do travel-stock prices not match this?
-All airlines +1%, hotels -3%, Others flat. See below for regions.
-Our NFAs, no-frills-airlines, all fell; well, Ryan was +0.2%. FSAs, full-service-airlines, did better.
-Travel-tech is now +24% above pre-covid.
-Hotels fell in each our three regions. Our four giants, see below, all fell. And Wyndham, which counts itself world-biggest in some measures, fell -29%.
-Trying hard to find good-news stock, among sizeable companies, and we can identify only Korean Air +19%.
-Surprise. Hainan Airlines, sort-of untouchable and a continuing candidate for our no-hope category, grew +31%.
-It seems investors don’t believe in the save-Norwegian plan - it fell -57%.
-(Ex) darling AirB&B fell -19%, ending below its Dec 20 listing price.
-Stockmarkets were sluggish, only +1%, although they are +17% on pre-covid.
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +0.3%, Delta +2%, ICAG +0.1/2% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -1%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia -4%, Easyjet -3%, Norwegian -57%, Ryanair +0.2%, Southwest -2%, Spring China +1%, Wizz -2%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor -2%, AirB&B -19%, InterContinental -4%, Marriott -3%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin flat, Shangri-La -2%.
-Big travel groups. China United -10%, Flight Centre -9%, TUI -0.2/+0.3% (Frankfurt/London).
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +5%, Sands -6%, Wynn +3%.
-Planemakers. Airbus +7%, Boeing +5%, Embraer +12%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +7%, Fraport +6%, Guangzhou -5%.
-Cruisers. Carnival +6%, RCC +7%, Star -9%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirB&B -19%, Amadeus +9%, Booking -4%, Expedia +0.4%, Trip +7%.
-No-hopers. Hertz -21%, Jet India +8%, Norwegian -57%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +2%, Hong Kong +1%, London +1%, Tokyo -3%, US (average of our four +1%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks).Compared with previous month: +2%. Compared with end-2019: -11%.
-World. Airlines +1%, Hotels -3%, Others flat. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -15%, Hotels -7%, Others -14%.
-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific -1%, Europe flat, US -1%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -14%, Europe -24%, US +2%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China. Compared with previous month: Airlines +5%, Hotels -2%, Others -6%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -2%, Hotels -7%, Others -33%.
-China +4%; compared with end-2019, +12%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +3%; compared with end-2019, +13%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -5%, Hotels -1%, Others +5%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -36%, Hotels -13%, Others -23%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines +3%, Hotels -6%, Others -1%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -8%, Hotels +1%, Others +15%.
-Rest-of world. Compared with previous month: +10%. Compared with end-2019: -32%.
-Travel-tech +2%. Compared with end-2019: +24%.
-Stockmarkets +1%. Compared with end-2019: +17%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 219, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 178, US 428. Index previous month: World 221, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 173, US 438. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 110. Index previous month 106. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 169. Index previous month 164. Index end-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
31 May 2021
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 164 in April. Index previous month 166. Index end-2019 157.
Comments:
-Surprised again. A drop back - five of our nine fell, most at a sizeable rate.
-Hard to see any pattern. Some US up, some down, and the same in Europe.
-Trivago not only fell again, but also fell heavily, -17%.
-Last month, we wondered why Trip was not doing better. It is based in China - where covid-recovery started to happen months ago - but it is quoted in the US, where covid-recovery movement started in April. Well, it fell again, albeit by only -1%.
-(Trip opened a listing in Hong Kong April. We will start to include that in our tracking from end-May.)
-Newly-listed AirBnB had the fastest growth January, the biggest falls in February and March, and a continued fall in April. This seems unrelated to covid, and appears to show the market thinks its issue price was over-priced.
-(We also note comparison with end-2019. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)
-There is one important pattern related to covid recovery. All five of eight stocks (the 9th, AirBnB, was not quoted pre-covid) above their end-2019 prices are US quoted - even including troubled Trivago.
-Only one non-US, eDreams, is back above end-2019.
-That leaves just Amadeus and Lastminute still below end-2019.
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-21


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Apr 21

Mar 21

Dec 20

Dec 19

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

AirBnB

173

188

147

na

na

-8.1

5.4

119

73

Amadeus

56.7

60.4

59.6

72.8

40.7

-6.1

2.7

171

104

Booking╪

2466

2330

2227

2054

1275

5.8

5.4

216

132

eDreams

4.84

4.71

4.16

4.27

1.90

2.8

2.7

293

178

Expedia

176

172

132

108

124

2.4

4.0

206

126

Lastminute

38.4

37.7

26.0

46.0

13.1

1.9

-0.2

257

156

Trip╪

39.1

39.6

33.7

33.5

46.8

-1.4

5.4

84

51

Trip Advisor

47.1

53.8

28.8

30.4

NA

-12.4

5.4

102

62

Trivago

3.58

4.30

2.42

2.62

na

-16.7

5.4

30

19

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Travel business updates
28 May 2021
[] WTTC* research shows contribution of the travel business (TTB) to the Caribbean’s GDP dropped -58% -US$33.9bn to US$24.5bn in 2020.
  Other data:
-TTB jobs 2.08mn -24.7%.
-Other business sectors did better. TTB’s share was 6.4%, compared with 14.1% in 2019.
-Domestic visitor spend* fell -49.6%, international visitor spend -68%.
-World contribution of TTB fell -49.1%. WTTC notes Bahamas* -68%, St Kitts/Nevis -72.3%, St Lucia -71.7%, St Vincent and the Grenadines* -67%, UK Virgin Islands -67.6%.
-Forecasts that if ‘mobility and international travel’ resume this June, TTB’s contribution to 2021 world GDP could grow +48.5%.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
[] GD* reports on space travel:
-Virgin Galactic has 600 bookings at US$200-250k each. Trip dates not fixed.
-Blue Origin’s New Shepard one seat US$2.8mn. Trip this year, possibly next month.
-SpaceX not included by GD.
*Notes: GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.

Travel business updates
27 May 2021
[] The annual statistical report of ICCA* on 2020 association meetings takes on a different form - because of the large cancellations. Most data presented is for specialists; some other (which we have extracted/calculated from ICCA’s report):
-743 -94.2% meetings.
-Postponed meetings 3714, a 44% share; Virtual 2505 30%; Cancelled 1211 14%; Hybrid 143 2%; Relocated 73 1%. (The 9% balance is those that took place, as previous item.)
-Attendance at postponed meetings: Postponed 1.56mn, a 38% share; Virtual 1.51mn 37%; Cancelled 596k 15%; Hybrid 44k 1%; Relocated 69 2%. Attendance at the 7% balance, unaffected, 280k.
-49.8% of the unaffected meetings took place in Jan/Feb.
*Notes:
-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.
-ICCA’s counts are meetings of associations (and follow precise definitions), and thus are just one segment of the big MICE business. We have not seen estimates, but we would be surprised if ICCA’s segment was more than 20% of the total. Why do these counts attract so much interest? (Possibly, we answer ourselves, because no other worldwide trade body tracks the whole MICE business.)
-A report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst, contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports on what it calls ‘slow travel(its definition of ST is, in essence, longer trips), which it says could be the next trend:
-A trip of 10+ nights is wanted (‘highly preferred’) by 22% of respondents, 1-day 10%, 1-3 nights 14%. Data for missing 4-10 nights not clarified as the remaining 54%, possibly because it weakens its arguments ).  
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] US-based Adventure Travel Trade Association reports on a travel-plan survey by Flywire, with which it works on payments:
-84% are as enthusiastic about travel as they have ever been. Has little value without more data.
-70% will spend more money on travel in 2022 than they have in the past five years. We presume this is compared with one year in (2016-20?). If yes, the criteria for that year needs to be noted (biggest spend?). If no (that is, 2020 compared with those the total of those five years), why such a giant jump?
-75% will look for ‘destinations where there are not a lot of people’. The usual dilemma - if 75% do what they say, then those destinations will have many people. This is based on the assumption that ATTA means ‘visitors’ not ‘people’, otherwise that would mean few visitors for destinations such as big-population Egypt, India, Mexico.
*Notes: At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
26 May 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-22 May occupancy 60.3% (-15.1%), average room rate US$115.57 (-13.6%)
-15 May 59.1% (-16.4%) US$113.54 (-15.4%)
-8 May 56.7% US$110.19
-1 May 57.1% US$108.80
-24 April 57.3% US$108.10
End-month 7-day periods:
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts Japan’s hotel market will reach US$23.5bn by 2026. Reported as US$1.76bn in 2020, which it indicates is a +54.0% AAGR* over 2020-26.
*Notes:
-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-We assume RM means hotel revenue by its term ‘hotel market’.
-To compare with 2020 and excluding pre-covid years has little value, and we are surprised RM does not know this. By calculation, we have determined RM means the six years through 2026 when it reports ‘by 2026’.
-AAGR = annual average growth rate.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
25 May 2021
[] Comprar Acciones, a Spain-based stock-trading company, reports on hotels in Europe:
-2021 revenue (believed to mean profits, but net, not operating) to fall -50%.
-2021 turnover +28%. Of 2020 turnover, 48% recorded in Q1.
-2021 turnover forecast to grow +28% - but 39% below 2019.
-2020 transaction volume US$10.4bn (at US$1 to €0.82) -69%. Believed to mean buying and selling. In January and February US$3.29bn +2.5%. Transaction numbers 291 -66%.
-Transactions had been US$3.78bn in 2009 after the 2007/8 financial crisis.
-‘In the next few years’, business travel could fall 10-30%. Too many variables to be valuable data.
[] Cotri* reports:
-‘Red tourism’* (RT) locations in China in 2019 counted 1.4bn visitors and US$60bn revenue - which would be US$43/visitor, which looks high. No other dates, data, comparisons.
-Most visitors are not the elderly nostalgic for places or events such as the Cultural Revolution. But during this year's May Day* holidays, 90% RT travellers were below 40 years.
-The Zunyi Conference Memorial Hall in Guizhou province, a major RT site, counted 210,000 visitors during the May holidays.
-Guangdong province has introduced a RT passport, covering 30 sites in the province.
-17% of flights during the Qingming* and May Day holidays in 2021 covered RT destinations. In 2022, London, Moscow, Tiflis, Wuppertal are due to be added back to RT destinations.
*Notes:
-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
-‘Red tourism’ refers to sites connected with the history of China’s Communist Party.
-Sometimes called just Labour Day holidays and generally considered April 30-May 5, which would be six days, but holiday-dates rarely clarified.
-Qingming festival April 4.

Travel business updates
24 May 2021
[] STR reports hotel occupancies in the Middle East during the Ramadan moslem festival:
-Highest occupancy 53.1%, May 10-16.
-During that week, highest occupancies were Sharjah 67.2%, Doha 65.5%, Abu Dhabi 63.6%, Al Khobar (Saudi Arabia) 63.5%.
-Other centres - Dubai 59.7%, Jeddah 58.6%.
-Others not given.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -66.0%. 2. -78.8%. 3. -85.0%. 4. -50.7%. 5. -69.0%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-May 23. 1. -39.2%. 2. -56.6%. 3. -71.6%. 4. -13.7%. 5. -44.9%.
-May 16. 1. -42.2%. 2. -60.0%. 3. -72.9%. 4. -16.5%. 5. -49.2%.
-May 9. 1. -46.4%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -75.2%. 4. -22.0%. 5. -53.0%.
-May 2. 1. -45.6%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -76.0%. 4. -19.4%. 5. -52.0%.
-April 25. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
21 May 2021
 [] GD* forecasts ‘strong’* UK domestic travel:
-*2021 ‘visitation’ -17% (GD rounded) against 2019 levels. (Outbound travel forecast to be -47.7% on 2019.)
-*TUI reduced its 2021 ‘operations’ from 80% to 75% of 2019 levels.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-15 May occupancy 59.1% (-16.4%), average room rate US$113.54 (-15.4%)
-8 May 56.7% US$110.19
-1 May 57.1% US$108.80
-24 April 57.3% US$108.10
-17 April 57.3% US$107.16
End-month 7-day periods:
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for April: air tickets sold US$3bn +569%; average US roundtrip ticket US$404, which we calculate is +20.2%; passenger trips 14.8mn +579% (domestic +603%, international +528%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$5.98mn +608%; EMD transactions 125.6k +1012%.
-For the month (compared with March 2021), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +8%; passenger trips +3% (domestic +4%, international +1%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTTC gaffs updated
20 May 2021
An announcement from WTTC containing additional information about its April conference in Mexico reads like a response to our criticism of its health protocols for the event (‘Gaffs Galore’).
  Normally, after that, we would move on. But WTTC has not moved on, and thus we feel further reporting is required.
  WTTC headed its (undated, but apparently May 17) announcement - ‘WTTC Global Summit showed the world how major live corporate events and conferences can be staged safely’.
  That seems related to our crucial critique, but the opposite - that WTTC’s Mexico event set a poor example on how the travel business should safely manage events. We gave a rock festival in Barcelona as an example of how to handle large events.
  For us, WTTC failed badly.
  Previously, WTTC gave no health-related data on its event, just reporting in essence that it did things safely. We extract key data that WTTC has now provided:
-(Previous data: 600 delegates from 40 countries.)
-1500 PCR and antigen covid tests taken after arrival, during, and at departure.
-99.8% of tests were negative.
-Two (would-be) delegates tested positive on arrival and were declined admittance.
-One tested positive before departure. WTTC is coy about this, because the phrase presumably means ‘during’ the event; otherwise the term would be ‘at/on departure’.
  Our comments:
-Maths. If 600 delegates had tests on arrival and departure, that leaves 300 ‘during’. We presume non-delegate support staff were also tested, and we estimate there were at least 200 such people. If they were not tested, that is not good. If they were tested, then WTTC’s numbers do not match its claim.
-WTTC also claims it followed ‘enhanced’ protocols at the event. But it amplifies that as meaning ‘mask wearing and physical distancing’, which are normal, not ‘enhanced’ protocols. In addition, pictorial evidence from the event indicates neither mask-wearing nor distancing were common.

Travel business updates
19 May 2021
[] HNN (Hotel News Now) reports on Virgin Hotels:
-Currently five hotels.
-Opened Nashville July 2020, Las Vegas March 2021.
-New Orleans due this August, New York early 2022, Edinburgh spring 2022.
[] GD* reports on Mexico outbound travel:
-5.62mn -73% (GD rounded) in 2020. Biggest fall in the Americas after Peru -76%.
-GD forecasts Mexico outbound will not ‘recover’ until 2024. *Note 1.
-GD reports Mexico’s ‘short-term recovery’ will depend on its ‘thriving domestic’ travel market. *Note 2.
-GD forecasts domestic ‘trips’ will recover by 2022. *Note 3.
-In 2019, domestic trips were 275mn; change not given. In 2020, the fall was -55%. *Note 4.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details of those marked here with an asterisk and numbered are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
18 May 2021
[] Cotri* reports new census results indicates that Chinese aged 60 now number 264mn, a 19% share of the population. Cotri adds 6% - women retiring at 50-55 to reach 25% of the population are retirees, the "Silver Travellers".
*Notes: Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -66.9%. 2. -79.5%. 3. -85.4%. 4. -52.0%. 5. -69.8%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-May 16. 1. -42.2%. 2. -60.0%. 3. -72.9%. 4. -16.5%. 5. -49.2%.
-May 9. 1. -46.4%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -75.2%. 4. -22.0%. 5. -53.0%.
-May 2. 1. -45.6%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -76.0%. 4. -19.4%. 5. -52.0%.
-April 25. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-April 18. 1. -47.3%. 2. -65.5%. 3. -77.7%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -52.6%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] TE* reports from a study on Europe’s convention business:
-Recovery will not start ‘in earnest’ until 2022. Visits are expected ‘to recover’ by 2024.
-Small domestic-oriented cooperate meetings and events ‘almost reaching’ 2019 levels by end-2022.  
-All types of events will not recover before 2023.
-Attendance levels for all events will stay below 2019 levels until 2024, lagging behind event numbers by two years. 
*Notes: TE = Tourism Economics, US-based. Part of Oxford Economics, UK-based, and unrelated to Oxford University.

Our outlook
17 May 2021
The following extracted from our input for an external report:
1 What is your assessment of performance in your business January-April compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Worse.
2 What have been the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] January-April?
Covid, and linked travel restrictions.
3 What are prospects for performance in your business May-August compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Better.
4 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] May-August?
Gradual lifting of covid-related travel limitations; 'health passports'.
5 What are your prospects for the international [travel business] performance in your business in 2021 as compared to 2020?
Better.
6 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of the [travel business] in 2021?
As 2 - covid, and linked travel restrictions.
7 Will the vaccination rollout  contribute to the resumption of the international [travel business] in 2021?
Yes. But why 'resumption'? The international travel business did not stop; it just fell greatly.
8 When will there be a rebound in the international [travel business] in your country?
By 2022. Our business does not have a 'country' and so we have replied for ‘our business’, but because a growth from 1 to 2 is a 'rebound', it is not clear what this question measures. We have replied as a recovery to pre-covid levels, but if there was a choice for after 2022, we would hesitate between forecasting 2022 and 2023.
9 When will the international [travel business] return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels in your country?
2023. See 8.
10 What are the three main factors weighing on the recovery of the international [travel business]? (Selection from choices.)
Travel restrictions. Slow virus containment. Lack of coordinated response among countries.
11 Is the domestic [travel business] driving the recovery in your destination?
(Our business does not have a 'destination'.)

Travel business updates
14 May 2021
[] Shanghai reports 16.9mn +138.9% visitors over China’s May Day holiday*. From ‘other provinces and cities*’ there were 6.25mn, a 37% share.
  Spend* is put at US$6.18bn (Y40bn).
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
[] Travel Mole reports world hotel occupancy in April was 46% +33pts. TM reports that Amadeus put ‘pre-pandemic’ occupancy at 70% - but does not clarify if this is Apr 19 or a different date.
[] Micenet (MN) reports that Business Events Sydney (BES) has won 10 events for New South Wales this year. These are due to have 14,450 delegates for Sydney, spending US$35.7mn (at US$1 to A$1.29) which we calculate would be US$2468 per delegate. MN does not give delegate numbers for the rest of NSW, nor the period of the events.
  BES has 89 events booked for 2021-26, worth US$388mn, which we calculate would be worth US$4.36mn per event. MN does not indicate if that 86 includes the 10 booked this year.
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in April at 1.62mn +1342.4% (-75.7% against Apr 19), YTD 8.16mn -52.6%.

Travel business updates
13 May 2021
[] Cotri* reports on China:
-Domestic trips during the Labour Day holidays* 230mn, +3% over 2019; change over 2020 not given.
-Spend US$17.0bn (Y110bn), which Cotri puts at 77% of 2019. We calculate that would be US$74 per visitor.
-Our database shows forecasts (thus before the holiday) from others: TravelGo 250mn (2020 115mn, 2019 195mn); Trip Group 200mn (change not given).
*Notes:
-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
-Sometimes called just the May holidays and generally considered April 30-May 5, which would be six days, but holiday-dates rarely clarified.
[] GD* reports 71 -34.3% corporate deals (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the travel business in April. Change over the previous month (GD sometimes compares with average of previous 12 months, which is a better comparison).
*Notes:
-Details as reported by Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ - which may be only part travel-business.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

Hotel business updates
12 May 2021
STR* reports:
[] Hotels in:
-Dubai occupancy 59.7%, average room rate US$157.04 (Dh576.33).
-London 28.6% US$91.96 (£67.13).
-Sydney 56.7% US$151.31 (A$195.19).

France updates
11 May 2021
[] France’s DMO (inexplicably named Atout France) announces a campaign to promote domestic travel, and visitation from 10 markets* in Europe. Budget for both, US$12.2mn (€10mn), including spend by 13 regions in France that together counted a 75% share of international visitors pre-covid and this year forecast an 85% share.
*Notes: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
[] The DMO for France’s Cote d'Azur* plans a US$1.71mn (at US$1 to €0.82) reopening promotion.
*Notes: Cote d’Azur (CDA) - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is brand identity; knowing what is meant by CDA.
[] Survey from PAP Vacances. April, comparisons with 2019, not 2020.
-Bookings +25.7%.
-86.6% share for seaside (PAP also reports 87.5%). It was 82.5% in 2019.
-Top-3 destinations - Var top, Morbihan, Charente-Maritime.
[] Survey fromQualimetrie. For respondents in France, unless stated otherwise.
-96% plan to take holidays in the next few months.
-66% plan weekends rather than a long stay.
-15% plan to travel internationally, 2x less than in 2019.
-1% of Dutch, English, Spanish, plan to visit France this summer, 15x less than ‘usual’. We believe: these measures are for residents, not nationals as stated; all UK, not just England; and we do not know what is ‘usual’.
-84% plan to use a ‘professional’ for their accommodation. If this means a travel agency, we believe this is too high, no matter if respondents replied this way to Qualimetrie.
-45% plan to use a hotel, 34% camping, 33% private accommodation, 23% holiday village. This totals above 100%; not clarified that this is a multi-choice question.
-43% plan accommodation like AirBnB. For the Netherlands, 14%. Other markets not given; Qualimetrie also studied Belgium, Spain, UK.
-Average spend (for 2 adults, 2 children) US$434 (at US$1 to €0.82) for a weekend, US$915 for 5-7 days, and US$1667 for above one week. For the Netherlands, US$511/NA/2035. Other markets not given.
-79% hope to visit a leisure park - share wanting Paris Disneyland 49%, Parc Asterix 17%; others under 10%.
[] Sunelia reports occupancy booked for its camping sites (actual, not web) May and June weekends 70-80%.

Travel business updates
10 May 2021
[] HNN (Hotel News Now) reports on Marriott:
-95% of its hotels are open.
-April occupancy 48%, March 45%, February 36%.
-China March occupancy 66%, ‘almost’ same as pre-covid March 2019. Business occupancy +5% on March 2019.
-Canada and US March occupancy 49%, January 33%; February not given. In March, ‘special corporate bookings’ 25% above February’s. April +13% over March.
-At end-March, booked group revenue 2022 -15% on pre-covid Mar 19 for 2020.
-Booked rates for groups Q1 2022 are +6% on pre-covid, for Q1 2023 +10%.
-Added 23,500 +60% rooms Q1 - 12,000 international rooms (for Marriott this means outside the US, possibly Canada/US), 7300 ‘conversion’ rooms. Other categories not given.
-At end-March, pipeline 2800/491,000 hotels/rooms. 222,000 rooms under construction; hotel count not given.
-Gross rooms growth +6%, net rooms growth 3-3.5%. No additional data given to put this into context.
-In Q1, occupancy 37.7% -15.3%.
[] TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks.
  The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in April for US hotel companies was 5,297 +3.2% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +15.8%. Our database shows their end-2019 Index was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 215. Previous month 207; end-2019 195.
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 170. Previous month: 173; end-2019 211.
-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 221, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 173, US 438. Previous month: World 213, Asia Pacific 54, Europe 171, US 414. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+AirBnB, Amadeus) was at 164. Previous month 166; end-2019 160.
-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China travel companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 106. Previous month 106; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Selected market indicators, latest
7 May 2021
On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Feb: AsPac -67.4%, Europe -64.1%, North America -80.1%, world -71.2%. IATA/TBA-estimates.
[] Frankfurt airport passengers YT-Mar: -77.6%.
[] Ryanair seat sales YT-Mar -91.5%.
[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, YT-Mar -90.2%.
[] Spain visitor arrivals YT-Dec -77.3%.
[] US travel agency US$ sales YT-Mar -67.6%. ARC.
[] US visitor arrivals, overseas YT-Mar -83.9%.
[] Visitor arrivals, world Jan: AsPac -95.9%, Europe -85.1%, North America -71.3%, world -86.7%. WTO.

Travel business updates
6 May 2021
[] Radar Box reports that China’s 7-day daily average domestic flights totalled 12,612 in the last week of April. In the same week 2020, 4939 flights; 2019, 9949.
[] STR* reports US hotel revenue per available room in March was US$86.61, which it reports as 50% of 2019. Comparison with 2020 not given.
*Notes: STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

Travel business updates
5 May 2021
[] IATA* reports air traffic for March (comparisons with same period in 2019, not 2020):
-Worldwide RPKs -67.2%, ASKs -56.8%, load factor 62.3% -19.7pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -60.4%, Europe -81.7%, North America -57.2%.
-International RPKs -87.8% - Asia Pacific -94.8%, Europe -88.3%, North America -80.9%.
-Domestic RPKs -32.3% - Australia -45.8%, Brazil -54.0%, China -2.6%, India -32.4%, Japan -58.3%, Russia +8.5%, US -43.9%.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.

Travel business updates
4 May 2021
[] Cotri* reports Q1* China outbound travel was 2mn, with 1.6mn to Macau, and around 10k arrivals* each to Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore.
*Notes:
-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
-Fall not given. It reported the same, 2mn, for Q4.
-Our database shows: Hong Kong counted 11.6k -99.6% arrivals from China in Q1 - an ‘arrival’ is not the same number as a ‘departure’. That represented 70.1% of arrivals in Hong Kong, whose total fell -99.5% in Q1; Macau 1.57mn -31.7% 90.0% -46.0%.
[] TBA-Tracking. Our Worldwide Index on travel companies’ stock prices in April was 221. End-2020 187. Pre-covid/End-2019 233. The ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006.

TBA Tracking: April travel stocks - hesitant growth
3 May 2021
Commentary (category numbers below):
-Hesitant growth - just +1%. Airlines actually fell, and by a sizeable -4%. World growth held back by AsPac - the whole region was -2%, and their airlines -6%. Even China, -8%!
-Perhaps these moves are a reflection of covid-news - which is very good, encouraging, or disastrous, depending on the market.
-This month we add a new category, big travel groups. See below.
-Don’t look for logic - travel-tech prices -4% for the month, but +20% against pre-covid levels.
-Only two of our eight travel-tech stocks have not recovered their pre-covid prices - Lastminute and ‘blue-chip’ Amadeus.
-All our airline giants fell (except ICAG in London). No-frillers were better; only troubled Air Asia fell (that’s excluding no-hoper Norwegian).
-AirBnB, which we list in both hotels and travel-tech, fell a clunky -8%.
-Good covid news in the US probably help our Las Vegas hoteliers grow as well as two strong US-market-heavy cruisers Carnival and RCC.
-Thai Airways, hurting badly from a covid-closed Thailand, crashed -51%.
-Air France-KLM fell a big -9%, even as its Paris market grew +3%. As the (AF) airline is getting a (France) government US$5bn payout, why the fall?
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern -8%, Delta -3%, ICAG +2/-1% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -5%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia -11%, Easyjet +6%, Norwegian -15%, Ryanair +2%, Southwest +3%, Spring China +8%, Wizz +2%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor +4%, AirBnB -8%, InterContinental +4%, Marriott +0.3%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +10%, Shangri-La -5%.
-Big travel groups. China United +22%, Flight Centre -7%, TUI +14/17% (Frankfurt/London).
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +7%, Sands +1%, Wynn +2%.
-Planemakers. Airbus +4%, Boeing -8%, Embraer +10%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +5%, Fraport +6%, Guangzhou -9%.
-Cruisers. Carnival +5%, RCC +2%, Star -5%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirBnB -8%, Amadeus -6%, Booking +6%, Expedia +2%, Trip -1%.
-No-hopers. Hertz +31% (but note US$2 compared with US$22 peak), Jet India +0.3%, Norwegian -15%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +1%, Hong Kong +1%, London +4%, Tokyo -1%, US (average of our four +4%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks).Compared with previous month: +1%. Compared with end-2019: -13%.
-World. Airlines -4%, Hotels +3%, Others +2%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -17%, Hotels -4%, Others -14%.
-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific -2%, Europe +2%, US +1%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -13%, Europe -25%, US +3%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China. Compared with previous month: Airlines -6%, Hotels +2%, Others -3%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -4%, Hotels -6%, Others -28%.
-China -8%; compared with end-2019, +8%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -2%; compared with end-2019, +9%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels +5%, Others +5%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -36%, Hotels -13%, Others -27%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels +2%, Others +3%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -10%, Hotels +6%, Others +14%.
-Rest-of world. Compared with previous month: +5%. Compared with end-2019: -37%.
-Travel-tech -4%. Compared with end-2019: +20%.
-Stockmarkets +2%. Compared with end-2019: +17%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 221, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 173, US 438. Index previous month: World 213, Asia Pacific 54, Europe 171, US 414. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 106. Index previous month 106. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 164. Index previous month 166. Index end-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

WTTC: gaffs galore
30 April 2021
Commentary from Travel Business Analyst:
Earlier this month, WTTC* held its annual conference in Mexico. Its gaffs are even more stunning given that it sets itself as the professional representation of the travel business.
  The travel business could learn from a rock concert in Barcelona, see below, and not WTTC’s meeting in Mexico. 
  Here are three WTTC statements about its event:
1. ‘..regular testing was made available’. That means testing was not mandatory. Even we know a negative-result person can infect others. That makes WTTC’s event potentially a super-spreader event.
2. ‘..complying with strict world-class health and hygiene protocols’. We have seen event coverage showing non-masked delegates (the majority?) at the event. That is not healthy, let along ‘world-class’ healthy - albeit that ‘world-class’ is a PR-word that has no practical meaning.
3. ‘..by observing the latest health and safety protocols’. Are there no editors at WTTC? The ‘latest (etc)’ in this sense does not exist. Firstly, because there are no worldwide protocols, so that means country-wide or even state-wide protocols. Secondly, we would guess that at least 100 new protocols came out in all administrations during the WTTC event. Thus WTTC did not comply with all those.
  Apply these shortcomings to the travel business overall, and it seems clear that ‘best practices’ are unlikely to happen.
  Shamefully, WTTC’s event happened after another non-travel event that set standards for travelling again - a test that WTTC failed:
-On March 28 a rock concert was held in Barcelona, with 5000 attendees. All were antigen-tested on site at the event, and all had to wear FFP2 masks throughout the event.
-Also, toilet capacity was reduced. We are puzzled by that. If attendees were allowed to jump up and down to the music, why was it more risky to jump up and down waiting to use the toilet?
-Six people tested covid-positive 15 days after the event, but it is believed in at least four of those cases, transmission did not take place during the concert.
*Notes: WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.

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