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Selected market indicators, latest
26 February 2021
Every Friday, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] China Southern Airlines seat sales Jan -46.9%.
[] Frankfurt airport passengers Jan -80.9%.
[] US travel agency US$ sales Jan -85.6%. ARC.

Two travel-techs report
26 February 2021
[] 2020 revenue for Spain-based Amadeus was US$2.4bn (€2bn) -61%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] The first public financial report for US-based AirBnB shows:
Q4.
-Revenue US$859mn -22%.
-Loss US$3.9bn.
-Gross booking value US$5.9bn -31%.
-‘Nights and Experiences’ booked 46.3mn -39%.
2020.
-Revenue US$3.4bn -30%.
-Loss US$4.6bn.
-Gross booking value US$23.9bn -37%.
-‘Nights and Experiences’ booked 193.2mn -41%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Hotel business updates
25 February 2021
[] STR* results reports on US hotels, weekly:
-14-20 February occupancy 48.1% (-23.8%), average room rate US$101.57 (-22.1%).
-7-13 February 45.1% (-29.0%) US$99.21 (-25.7%).
-31 January-6 February 40.9% (-30.5%) US$91.44 (-29.0%).
-24-30 January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%).
-17-23 January 40.0% (-30.6%) US$90.13 (-28.1%).
-10-16 January 40.1% (-31.8%) US$89.39 (-31.9%).
-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).
-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).
-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).
-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates
24 February 2021
[] Leonardo Hotels* (LH) has signed with IWG* to convert 2000sqm on three floors of its Amsterdam Leonardo hotel from rooms into private offices for rental.
The target is to do similar conversions at 13 ‘other locations’ - dates and additional information not given. LH also adds it is also planning to expand ‘abroad’. We presume this means outside Ntherlands, where it has 13 hotels.
*Notes:
-Germany-based LH, owned by Israel-based Fattal Hotels, operates about 200 hotels in Europe.
-IWG = International Workplace Group, Switzerland-based, which operates as Regus, its name until 2016.
-We understand this conversion covers about 50 rooms. Details are not clear, but we understand LH manages these offices fror IWG.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

US travel agencies, weekly
23 February 2021
ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -72.60%. 2. -82.50%. 3. -85.60%. 4. -62.20%. 5. -74.20%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-February 21. 1. -64.1%. 2. -79.9%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -46.5%. 5. -67.9%.
-February 14. 1. -66.6%. 2. -81.0%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -51.0%. 5. -69.3%.
-February 7. 1. -66.9%. 2. -81.5%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -50.4%. 5. -70.1%.
-January 31. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.
-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.
-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.
-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.
-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: a selection of latest travel data, world
19 February 2021
Every Friday, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Dec: AsPac -61.9%, Europe -69.9%, North America -65.2%, world -65.9%. IATA.
[] Singapore visitor arrivals YT-Dec 2.74mn -85.7%.
[] Visitor arrivals, YT-Dec: AsPac -84.1%, Europe -70.4%, North America -67.0%, world -73.9%. WTO.

Travel business updates
19 February 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels in January: occupancy 39.3% -28.3%, average room rate US$90.79 -27.8%.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for January: air tickets sold US$1.3bn  -86%; average US roundtrip ticket US$335, which we calculate is -30.0%; passenger trips 8.0mn -72% (domestic 5.5mn -69%, international 2.4mn -77%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$2.52mn -71%; EMD transactions 50.3k -66%.
-For January (compared with December 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +21%; passenger trips +23% (domestic +31%, international +8%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel business updates
18 February 2021
[] STR* results reports on US hotels, weekly:
-7-13 February occupancy 45.1% (-29.0%), average room rate US$99.21 (-25.7%).
-31 January-6 February 40.9% (-30.5%) US$91.44 (-29.0%).
-24-30 January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%).
-17-23 January 40.0% (-30.6%) US$90.13 (-28.1%).
-10-16 January 40.1% (-31.8%) US$89.39 (-31.9%).
-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).
-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).
-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).
-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).
-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] PCW* reports that gross bookings for US OTAs fell -59% in 2020.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] US travel agencies, weekly
ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -73.1%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -83.9%. 4. -63.0%. 5. -74.7%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-February 14. 1. -66.6%. 2. -81.0%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -51.0%. 5. -69.3%.
-February 7. 1. -66.9%. 2. -81.5%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -50.4%. 5. -70.1%.
-January 31. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.
-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.
-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.
-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.
-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.
-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
16 February 2021
[] Cotri* reports there were 2mn outbound travellers from China in Q4 (biggest destination Macau).
*Notes:
-Fall not given. Our database shows Macau counted 1.73mn -73.2% arrivals from China in Q4 - an ‘arrival’ is not the same number as a ‘departure’. That represented 92.4% of arrivals in Macau, whose total fell -79.6% in Q4.
-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in January at 2.55mn -64.4%.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, February
15 February 2021
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions.%age change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.
[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 146; Nov 117; Oct 117; Sep 122; Aug 132; Jul 112. TBA.
[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Nov -70.3%; Oct -70.6%; Sep -72.8%; Aug -75.3%. IATA.
[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 178; Nov 175; Oct +144; Sep 147; Aug 153; Jul 132. TBA.
[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 187; Nov 177; Oct 139; Sep 142; Aug 154; Jul 132. TBA.
[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 139; Nov 131; Oct 91; Sep 99; Aug 103. Net Value.
[] World visitor arrivals: 2020: Oct -83.4%; Sep -79.6%; Aug -76.7%; Jul -79.6%; Jun -91.2%. WTO.
[] AsPac air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Nov -61.6%; Oct -61.6%; Mar -59.9%; Feb -41.3%; Jan +0.4%. IATA.
[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 49; Nov 50; Oct 44; Sep 44; Aug 45. TBA.
[] AsPac visitor arrivals, estimate: 2020: Oct -97.2%; Sep -97.5%; Aug -95.6%; Jul -95.9%. TBA.
[] Europe airport passengers, total: 2020: Oct -75.6%; Sep -73.1%; Aug -68.9%; Jul -77.7%. ACI.
[] Europe air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Nov -82.2%; Oct -77.6%; Mar -51.8%; Feb +0.7%; Jan +1.6%. IATA.
[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 163; Nov 154; Oct 114; Sep 122; Aug 132. TBA.
[] Europe visitor arrivals: 2020: Oct -76.1%; Sep -71.5%; Aug -66.8%; Jul -71.0%; Jun -88.1%. WTO.

Germany travel trends
12 February 2021
ITBB* and Statista* survey on Germany’s travel business includes:
-*In 2018 57% of German nationals (note, not other residents) aged 18-64 favoured beach holidays. Then VFR 38.7%, ‘long’ weekend trips 35.3%, all-inclusive resorts 34.5%, lakes/mountains 28.3%, sightseeing 30.6%, camping/caravanning 16.0%, shopping 17.9%, charter/package holiday 17.4%, cruise & ‘stay’ 15.7%.
-*In 2020, 21.0% 15.8% 14.8% 13.5% 12.9% 11.6% 7.1% 6.4% 6.3% 5.3%. Lakes/mountains grew from 6th to 5th, camping/caravanning from 9th to 7th, sightseeing fell from 5th to 6th, shopping from 7th to 8th. Not noted is that charter/package holiday fell from 8th to 9th. The 2020 total is much less than 2018 - near 120%.
-*In Summer 2020, Google searches for hiking tours grew +44.3%, cycle tours grew +47.7%.
-*Komoot a website for planning outdoor activities, recorded 8.5mn hits in July 2020 (+113%, our calculation on Statista data).
-Those who agree that ‘Sustainability is an important aspect for me when travelling’ have grown from 10.8% in 2018 to 17.8% in 2020.
-Those who agree that ‘I always look for the cheapest offer when travelling’ have grown from 28.5% in 2018 to 35.0% in 2020.
-*Over 2000-09 there were 38 new companies whose focus was on sustainable travel. Over 2010-19 175, which we calculate is +360.5%.
-*New companies for ‘custom’ travel were 336.
-Statista reports ‘corona’-related measures. ‘Corona’ is either the outer atmosphere of the sun or a beer, launched in Mexico but now owned by Europe’s AB InBev.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
11 February 2021
[] STR* results reports on US hotels, weekly:
-31 January-6 February occupancy 40.9% (-30.5%), average room rate US$91.44 (-29.0%).
-24-30 January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%).
-17-23 January 40.0% (-30.6%) US$90.13 (-28.1%).
-10-16 January 40.1% (-31.8%) US$89.39 (-31.9%).
-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).
-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).
-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).
-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).
-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).
-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] WTTC* reports:
-*In 2020 174mn jobs were ‘impacted’ globally.
-*Over 2011-19, Southeast Asia travel GDP annual average growth rate was +6.7%. It notes this was the fastest compared its +3.7% all-GDP. It provides data for just one other region - Middle East +3% +0.3%.
-*For every 34 visitors in a destination, one new job is created. In Africa it is 11, Asia Pacific 13, Middle East 24.
-For every US$1 generated in direct travel GDP globally, US$2 is generated indirectly.
-For every direct job globally, two new jobs are created indirectly or induced - effectively creating three jobs.
*Notes:
-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] STR* reports on hotel results in January:
-Berlin occupancy 12.1% (-81.3%), average room rate US$77 (€63.34 -25.3%).
-Sydney 26.6% (-64.7%) US$141 (A$191.20 -7.3%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
10 February 2021
[] The VVF holiday-package company reports for France’s February school holidays:
-Mountain bookings occupancy 46% -32pts. 
-Seaside bookings occupancy 31% -22pts.
[] PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association, a Bangkok-based regional promotional body) reports:
-Arrivals in 2023 could reach 96% of the total in 2019 - under the best scenario. Under the medium scenario 74%, severe 49%.
-In the Pacific 102% 78% 52%.
-Asia ‘slight deficit’ (not specified), medium not specified, severe 50%.
-South Asia mild 14% in 2021 (not 2023, as others). Other scenarios not specified.
Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] US travel agencies, weekly
ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -70.2%. 2. -79.7%. 3. -82.3%. 4. -60.5%. 5. -71.8%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-February 7. 1. -66.9%. 2. -81.5%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -50.4%. 5. -70.1%.
-January 31. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.
-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.
-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.
-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.
-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.
-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
9 February 2021
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 135 in December. Index previous month 131. Index end-2019 157.
  Comments:
-AirBnB was listed, in the US, starting last December. No growth to calculate yet.
-Another recovery-month, although index is still below end-2019.
-All but one (Lastminute) of our eight stocks grew, with growth in double-digits for eDreams, Trip Advisor, Trivago.
-However, three are still below their baseline prices - Trip, Trip Advisor, Trivago.
-Encouraging for the sector is that all but two stocks - Lastminute, Trip - performed above their local stockmarkets.
-(We note comparison with end-2019. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)
-In August, Booking became the first to recover above end-2019 prices, but it dropped down again. At year-end, three were above their end-2019 prices - Booking, Expedia, Trip (just).
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Dec 20

Nov 20

Oct 20

Dec 19

Dec 18

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

AirBnB

147

na

na

na

na

na

na

3.7

101

75

Amadeus

59.6

57.5

41.0

72.8

60.8

40.7

3.7

0.0

180

134

Booking╪

2227

2028

1623

2054

1722

1275

9.8

5.7

195

145

eDreams

4.16

3.74

2.22

4.27

2.38

1.90

11.1

0.0

252

187

Expedia

132

124

94.2

108

113

124

6.4

3.7

155

115

Lastminute

26.0

26.8

15.7

46.0

17.5

13.1

-3.0

2.2

174

129

Trip╪

33.7

33.6

28.8

33.5

27.1

46.8

0.4

3.7

72

54

Trip Advisor

28.8

26.1

19.1

30.4

53.6

NA

10.3

3.7

62

46

Trivago

2.42

2.19

1.35

2.62

5.63

na

10.5

3.7

21

15

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
8 February 2021
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in January for US hotel companies was 4,199 -8.2% (over previous month). Our database shows their end-2019 Index was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 168. Previous month 178; end-2019 195.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 138. Previous month: 146; end-2019 211.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 172, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 149, US 320. Previous month: World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 127. Previous month 131; end-2019 160.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 90. Previous month 95; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Selected market indicators, latest
5 February 2021
Every Friday, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Dec: AsPac -61.9%, Europe -69.9%, North America -65.2%, world -65.9%. IATA.
[] Singapore visitor arrivals YT-Dec -85.7%.
[] Spain visitor arrivals YT-Nov -78.9%.
[] Visitor arrivals, YT-Dec: AsPac -84.1%, Europe -70.4%, North America -67.0%, world -73.9%. WTO.

Travel business updates
4 February 2021
[] PCW* reports:
-Spain’s 2020 travel gross bookings were estimated to have been US$10.9bn (at US$1 to €0.82) -70%, with online bookings US$5.5bn -66%.
-Forecasts* for total market - 2021 US$22bn, 2022 US$27bn, 2023 US$29bn, 2024 US$35bn.
-Forecasts* for online market - 2021 US$11bn, 2022 US$20bn, 2023 US$21bn, 2024 US$22bn.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data.
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Travel Mole reports that Thailand’s government forecasts 5mn visitors this year. Its previous forecast was for 10mn.
[] IATA* reports:
For December:
-Worldwide RPKs -69.7%, ASKs -56.7%, load factor -24.6pt.
For all-2020:
-Worldwide RPKs -65.9%, ASKs -56.5%, load factor -17.8 pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -61.9%, Europe -69.9%, North America -65.2%.
-International RPKs -75.6% - Asia Pacific -80.3%, Europe -73.7%, North America -75.4%.
-Domestic RPKs -48.8% - Australia -69.5%, Brazil -49.0%, China -30.8%, India -55.6%, Japan -53.6%, Russia -23.5%, US -59.6%.
Forecast 2021:
-Worldwide RPKs +50.4%.
*Notes:
-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel business updates
3 February 2021
[] US hotel updates. STR* results reports, weekly:
-17-23 January occupancy 40.0% (-30.6%), average room rate US$90.13 (-28.1%).
-10-16 January 40.1% (-31.8%) US$89.39 (-31.9%).
-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).
-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).
-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).
-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).
-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).
-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).
-22-28 November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%).
-15-21 November 41.2% (-32.6%) US$88.54 (-29.0%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] HNN (Hotel News Now) reports on US hotel deals:
-Q2 2020 6 -83% single-asset trades at at least US$10mn.
-Q3 12, which we calculate is -70%; HNN reports -80%.
-Q4 32, which we calculate is -41%; HNN reports -75%.
-All-2020 79 -52%.
-All-2020 value US$5.3bn -70%; average price per key US$273,000 -25%.
[] US travel agencies, weekly. ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -68.9%. 2. -78.2%. 3. -80.6%. 4. -59.6%. 5. -70.4%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-January 31. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.
-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.
-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.
-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.
-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.
-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.
-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel stocks; 20-year review
2 February 2021
Our full report on travel stock prices over the periods since 2015, 2010, 2000 is included in our February W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report.
  We include excerpts here for the US, rest-of-world, travel-tech, and stockmarkets. Excerpts for Asia Pacific and Europe travel stocks were published here last week.
[] US.
-Total. In 2020, travel stocks fell -21%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was +0.3%; 2010-20 +8%. *Not 2000-20, as most other categories; our full records had not started then.
-Airlines. -32%; -8%; +10%.
-Hotels. -9%; +6%; +7%.
-Others. -27%; +2%; +5%.
[] Rest-of-world.
A new section for us, with comparison possible only against end-2019. In 2020, travel stocks fell -54%.
[] Travel-tech.
-In 2020, travel-tech stocks fell -6%.
-Over 2015-20*, their AAGR (annual average growth rate) was +8%, best of all our sectors. *Not 2010-20 or 2000-20, as most other categories; our full records had not started then.
[] Stockmarkets.
-All. In 2020, world stockmarket indices fell grew +3%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was +5%; 2010-20 +5%.
-Asia Pacific. +8%; +6%; +4%.
-Europe. -12%; -2%; +6%.
-US. +12%; +11%; +5%.

TBA Tracking: January travel stocks; down we go again
1 February 2021
Commentary (category numbers below):
-Not a good start to 2021. Down -3%, and -24% over end-2019.
-Above their end-2019 price (excluding various special reasons), only 5 of our 34 travel stocks in AsPac (3 in China), 1 of 23 in Europe, 4 of 27 in the US, 0 of 4 outside those three regions.
-Most airlines fell. In our five separate regions, only 5 of the 37 we track grew - none in Europe.
-China’s recovery has stalled. Half of our listed 10 fell, and still 6 below their end-2019 price.
-In the US, unlike other regions, hotels performed worse than airlines. Choice, however, almost covid recovered; just -3% on end-2019.
-Also, not good for travel-tech - 6 of our 9 fell. There has been see-sawing, but Expedia and Travel Advisor are above their end-2019 prices.
-In the US, semi-merger (revenue-sharing) talks between American and Jet Blue probably helped American’s +9% and JB’s (only) -1%.
-No-hope airlines. Expectations of positive changes boosted prices of Jet India and Norwegian end-2020, but a return to reality has hit, and down they go again.
-On the last day of the month, China-based HNAG* was in the news concerning possible fraud of around US$10bn, and other related turmoil. But its stock in China grew +1% over the month, in Hong Kong +6%. *HNA was originally the official (mis-)acronym for Hainan Airlines; now a no-meaning corporate name for a Hainan-based conglomerate. We use ‘HNAG’ when covering the group.
-In Europe, ICAG hit harder than similar groups Air France-KLM, Lufthansa - -11%, -5%, -2%.
-Fall at no-frills Wizz -4% was region’s smallest fall. And Wizz is the only airline above its end-2019 price.
-Travel group TUI worst performer in Europe (except no-hoper Norwegian), -24%.
-AirBnB added to our Travel-Tech section (we will probably also include in Hotels at a later date); it had a good first-clear-month start, +25%.
Selected category-specifics:
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern -2%, Delta -6%, ICAG -11/10% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -2%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia -21%, Easyjet -12%, Norwegian -33%, Ryanair -12%, Southwest -6%, Spring China +6%, Wizz -4%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor -6%, InterContinental -4%, Marriott -12%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +3%, Shangri-La -4%.
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM -9%, Sands -19%, Wynn -12%.
-Planemakers. Airbus -7%, Boeing -9%, Embraer -1%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -10%, Fraport -8%, Guangzhou -2%.
-Cruisers. Carnival -14%, RCC -13%, Star flat.
-Travel-tech heavies. Amadeus -9%, Booking -13%, Expedia -6%, Trip -6%.
-No-hopers. Hertz flat, Jet India -35%, Norwegian -33%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt -2%, Hong Kong +4%, London -1%, Tokyo +1%, US (average of our five -1%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks). Compared with previous month: -3%. Compared with end-2019: -24%.
-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific -3%, Europe -10%, US -5%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -25%, Europe -37%, US -26%.
-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines -9%, Hotels -0.2%, Others -0.3%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -19%, Hotels -20%, Others -36%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -10%, Hotels -6%, Others -13%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -44%, Hotels -28%, Others -40%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines -1%, Hotels -10%, Others -4%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -33%, Hotels -20%, Others -19%.
-China +0.4%; compared with end-2019, +22%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -2%; compared with end-2019, +6%.
-Rest-of world. Compared with previous month: +4%. Compared with end-2019: -54%.
-Travel-tech -2%. Compared with end-2019: -11%.
-Stockmarkets -0.2%. Compared with end-2019: +7%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 172, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 149, US 320. Index previous month: World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 90. Index previous month 95. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 127. Index previous month 139. Index end-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel stocks; 20-year review
29 January 2021
Our full report on travel stock prices over the periods since 2015, 2010, 2000 is included in our February W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report.
  We include excerpts here for Asia Pacific and Europe travel stocks. Excerpts of other regions, other categories, stockmarkets - and the January report - are due here next week.
[] Sectors, Asia Pacific.
-Total. In covid-struck-2020, travel stocks fell -13%. Over 2015-20, their annual average growth rate (AAGR) was -7%; 2010-20 -6%; 2000-20 -1%.
-Airlines. -5%; -5%; -5%; -2%.
-Hotels. -20%; -3%; -7%; +2%.
-Others. -34%; -28%; -14%; NA.
[] Sectors, Europe.
-Total. In 2020, travel stocks fell -28%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was -6%; 2010-20 +1%. 2000-20 NA.
-Airlines. -21%; -10%; -2%; NA.
-Hotels. -23%; -3%; +3%; NA.
-Others. -36%; -2%; +4%; NA.

2020 visitor arrivals
28 January 2021
WTO* reports:
-Visitor arrivals fell -1bn -74% in 2020. We presume this is WTO’s initial estimate; it does not clarify.
-The fall compares with -4% ‘during the 2009 global economic crisis’. The world economic crisis started September 2008 and is generally defined as 2008/9. Our database shows +2% in 2008, -4% 2009, +7% 2010.
-WTO estimates visitor spend was -US$1.3tn - 11x the fall in 2009.
-It puts 100-120mn direct travel jobs at risk. Period not given.
-According to a WTO survey:
  -45% of respondents forecast better prospects for this year compared with 2020, 25% similar, 30% worse.
  -50% forecast a ‘rebound’ in 2022; in October 2020 the share was 21%. The other 50% forecast a ‘potential rebound’ this year; in October 2020 the share was 79%. WTO does not define if these ‘rebounds’ relate to 2019 or 2020 arrivals. We believe it almost certain that the Dead Cat Bounce* will result in arrivals growth this year against 2020.
  -43% forecast a return to 2019 levels in 2023, 41% in 2024 or later. Forecasts of the 16% balance not given.
  WTO’s commentary has been challenged by Cotri* (edited for reasons of space):
-‘...to show the real extent of covid’s impact, it would make more sense to compare Mar-Dec 20, because arrivals in Jan/Feb in most parts of the world were not yet affected by covid. Apart from the fall in arrivals in China in February.
-‘The ‘worst year on record’? What about 1942-44? We should keep things in perspective.’
*Notes:
-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
-Dead Cat Bounce. In general, a year after a fall for a specific reason, there would be a rebound. The financial world has an unkindly term for that - a Dead Cat Bounce. Even a dead cat bounces after a fall.
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Selected market indicators, latest
27 January 2021
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Nov: AsPac -61.7%, Europe -69.3%, North America -65.0%, world -65.6%. IATA.
[] China Southern Airlines seat sales YT-Dec 96.9mn -36.1%.
[] Frankfurt airport passengers YT-Dec 18.8mn -73.4%
[] Lufthansa seat sales, group, YT-Sep 32.2mn -71%.
[] Ryanair seat sales YT-Dec 52.0mn -65.9%.
[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, YT-Dec 7.01mn -81.6%.
[] Singapore visitor arrivals YT-Nov 2.72mn -84.4%.
[] US hotel occupancy YT-Dec 44.0% -33.3%. STR.
[] US travel agency sales YT-Dec US$23.0bn -76.4%. ARC.
[] Visitor arrivals, YT-Oct: AsPac -82.3%, Europe -68.5%, North America -67.6%, world -71.9%. WTO.

TBA Tracking: Travel Traffic, Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world
26 January 2021
Our ‘TBA Travel Industry Indices’ from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows the following monthly traffic growths*.
World
2020: Nov -79.7%E; Oct -79.6%P; Sep -79.7%; Aug -77.6%.
Asia Pacific
2020: Nov -92.4%E; Oct -92.5%P; Sep -93.0%; Aug -91.4%.
Europe
2020: Nov -81.8%E; Oct -79.8%P; Sep -78.4%; Aug -71.1%.
US
2020: Nov -71.2%E; Oct -72.4%P; Sep -73.7%; Aug -75.3%.
*Notes:
-Aggregates of airline seats sold, airline RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency sales, visitor arrivals.
-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

Travel business updates
25 January 2021
US travel agencies, weekly
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -67.66%. 2. -76.63%. 3. -78.98%. 4. -58.66%. 5. -69.01%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.
-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.
-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.
-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.
-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.
-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.
-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-November 22. 1. -71.2%. 2. -81.7%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.4%. 5. -72.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on hotel results in 2020:
-Asia Pacific occupancy 44.5% (-35.6%), average room rate US$74.99 (-22.2%).
-Central/South America 30.0% (-48.7%), US$78.75 (-10.1%).
-Europe 33.1% (-54.2%), US$114 (€93.34 -18.2%).
-Middle East 45.9% (-30.3%), US$117.23 (-17.3%).
-UK 40.5% (-47.7%), US$99 (£72.08 -23.9%).
-US 44.0% (-33.3%), US$103.25 (-21.3%). Unsold roomnights 1bn; in 2009, during the 2008/9 financial fall, there were 786mn.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] Vista Jet reports*:
-Subscriber growth +29% - Europe 43% share of new members, North America 25%, Asia 18%, Middle East 10%.
-Bookings growth +15%.
-Flights - Europe 46% share, North America 26%. China 28% share of Asia. UAE 34% share of Middle East.
*Notes: VJ gives no data that puts these percentage growths into perspective.

Travel business updates
22 January 2021
[] 2020 visitor arrivals in Macau 5.90mn -85.0%.
[] STR* results reports on US hotels, weekly:
-10-16 January occupancy 40.1% (-31.8%), average room rate US$89.39 (-31.9%)
-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).
-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).
-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).
-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).
-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).
-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).
-22-28 November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%).
-15-21 November 41.2% (-32.6%) US$88.54 (-29.0%).
-8-14 November 43.2% (-32.7%) US$90.58 (-28.6%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
21 January 2021
[] Sales at CDA* for its Q1, Oct-Dec 20, were US$32.8mn (at US$1 to €0.82) -81.3%. Ski was US$2.21mn -97.0%, leisure resorts US$30.1mn -69.3%.
*Notes:
-CDA = France-based Compagnie des Alpes. Despite that name, it has not only 10 ski resorts (including Val d’Isere), but also 13 leisure resorts in France (including Futuroscope, Parc Asterix). And international - in Austria (one), Belgium (four), Canada (one), Netherlands (one), Switzerland (one; Chaplin’s World). Plus management and/or technical contracts in China, Georgia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Russia, Turkey), and shares in four other ski resorts in France (including Chamonix).
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Global Data reports that Norwegian Air* ending its longhaul routes ‘emphasises flaws in its business model’.
  Travel Business Analyst first criticised NA’s businessplan in 2015, when we also suggested it should change its name. We suggested Union Air, Air Europe.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Asia Pacific arrival forecasts
21 January 2021
PATA* forecasts:
-2020 arrivals 121.84mn - assumed to be an estimate but not shown as that.
-Highest forecast for this year 152mn, which we calculate would be +24.9% on PATA’s estimate for 2020. For 2022 406mn +167.0%; 2023 677mn +66.7% - still below the 2019 count.
-(PATA selected) comments on regions:
   -Asia Pacific in 2023 arrivals -4% on 2019 on the best outlook.
   -Americas no growth until 2022. This year, arrivals to fall by 3.59mn to as much as almost 23.8mn.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Germany’s travel results
20 January 2021
Statista* reports some 2020 travel data for ITBB*:
-*The ‘travel market is set to recover’ from the covid-provoked fall ‘by 2023’.
-*2021 ‘travel revenue’ to grow +50%.
-2025 ‘revenue’ +23% against 2019.
-*‘Projects’ -55% ‘turnover loss’ for ‘tourism industry’ for 2020.
-Sources WTO* to report Jan-Oct 20 visitor arrivals -72%.
-*Sources WTO to report April hotel ‘visitors’ in Germany -91%.
-*Sources Germany’s DRV travel association to report 2020 turnover fall of -US$34bn (at US$1 to €0.82) -80%.
-*Sources ZDF-Polit Barometer to report that covid ‘affected’ travel plans of 50% of travellers from Germany.
-*Sources Allianz to report that before covid, 22% of German nationals (thus excluding other residents in Germany) favoured longhaul destinations; 6% after covid began. Those preferring staycations* grew from 30% to 61%.
-*In 2019 Germany’s domestic travel accounted for US$316bn, ‘85% of Germany’s domestic [travel] revenues, whereas for 2020 the share is projected to be 91%’ (US$211bn).
-*‘Turnover’ in Germany’s international tourism market is forecast to shrink by -60%, from US$55bn to US$20bn.
-Germany’s domestic travel ‘turnover’ is forecast to return to the level in 2019 in 2022.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
19 January 2021
[] WTTC* forecasts:
-Travel business jobs recovered worldwide in 2021 - 84mn worst outlook (25% below 2019; 82mn fewer jobs), 100mn medium (comparison with 2019 not given), 111mn best (17% 54mn).
-WTTC reports that ‘during the height of the pandemic’, it forecast 174mn jobs were at risk in 2020. Our database shows that in June it forecast 198mn (but also 197mn) jobs could be lost in 2020; and earlier it had forecast 100mn.
-Under its best outlook, the travel business’s contribution to global GDP would fall -17% compared with 2019, to US$7.4tn. Under a ‘more conservative’ outlook (not clarified if ‘medium’ or ‘worst’), the travel business’s contribution would drop -27%, to US$6.5tn.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
 [] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -66.19%. 2. -74.88%. 3. -77.18%. 4. -57.51%. 5. -67.45%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.
-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.
-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.
-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.
-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.
-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-November 22. 1. -71.2%. 2. -81.7%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.4%. 5. -72.1%.
-November 15. 1. -67.4%. 2. -78.9%. 3. -70.12%. 4. -53.59%. 5. -61.79%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels for all-2020: occupancy 36.7% -32.3%, average room rate US$91.96 -27.6%.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
18 January 2021
[] MKG* (a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown) reports hotel results in France and Europe in 2020. A selection:
-France occupancy 32.4% -36.2pts, average room rate US$94.5 (at US$1 to €0.82) -18.1%.
-Paris 22.4% -57.6pts, US$157.2 -20.8%.
-Cote d’Azur 33% -32.8pts, US$111.8 -19.3%.
-MKG also reports hotel revenue in Europe. Our estimates on MKG data show hotels in France lost -62% of their revenue (Europe’s best performance). Then Germany -64%, Poland -69%, Luxembourg -70%, Switzerland -70%, UK -72%, Austria -73%, Lithuania -73%, Belgium -74%, Netherlands -75%, Spain -76%, Portugal -77%, Italy -78%, Greece -79%, Hungary -81%, Czech R -84%.
*Notes:
-MKG also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
-Any rounding by MKG.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports new funding at US-based Hipcamp, which books accommodation such as camping, of US$57mn brings its value to US$300mn - double its 2019 value.
  GD also adds other pro US-domestic information* to support outlook for Hipcamp:
-11% more consumers said they would travel less internationally (39%) than would travel less domestically (28%) post covid.
-79% are ‘quite’ or ‘extremely’ concerned about covid.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We believe such covid-related sentiments become obsolete almost as soon as they are released - as events overtake sentiments. Such as, recently, the approval of a vaccine, then another, then inoculation plans, inoculation progress, and so on.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US hotel updates
17 January 2021
STR* results reports, weekly:
-3-9 January occupancy 37.0% (-28.3%), average room rate US$87.97 (-27.1%).
-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).
-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).
-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).
-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).
-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).
-22-28 November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%).
-15-21 November 41.2% (-32.6%) US$88.54 (-29.0%).
-8-14 November 43.2% (-32.7%) US$90.58 (-28.6%).
-1-7 November 44.2% (-35.9%) US$91.40 (-31.1%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
16 January 2021
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 131 in November. Index previous month 91. Index end-2019 157.
  Comments:
-A strong recovery, although index is still below end-2019.
-Last month, we noted that we have been waiting for clear signs that travel-tech is performing better than all-travel. But we added that it needed rose-coloured glasses to see that. This month, those glasses worked; perhaps next month we can take them off and still see good times.
-Not only did all of our eight stocks grow, but growth was fast - the slowest was +17%. Even perpetual-loser Trivago grew - +62%!
-However, three are still below their baseline prices - Trip, Trip Advisor, Trivago.
-Encouraging for the sector is that all eight stocks performed well above their local stockmarkets. For most, their growth was more than double their stockmarkets’!
-(We now note comparison with end-2019. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)
-In August, Booking became the first to recover above end-2019 prices, but it dropped down again. This month, two had climbed above their end-2019 prices - Expedia, and (just) Trip.
-AirBnB was listed starting last month, in the US. Later we will include the company in this travel-tech section. (And perhaps also in Hotels; our decision not yet made.)
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Nov 20

Oct 20

Sep 20

Dec 19

Dec 18

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

Amadeus

57.5

41.0

47.6

72.8

60.8

40.7

40.2

25.2

174

132

Booking╪

2028

1623

1711

2054

1722

1275

25.0

11.8

178

136

eDreams

3.74

2.22

2.31

4.27

2.38

1.90

68.5

25.2

227

173

Expedia

124.5

94.2

91.7

108

113

124

32.2

12.7

146

111

Lastminute

26.8

15.7

19.1

46.0

17.5

13.1

71.2

9.3

179

137

Trip╪

33.6

28.8

31.1

33.5

27.1

46.8

16.8

12.7

72

55

Trip Advisor

26.1

19.1

19.4

30.4

53.6

NA

36.6

12.7

56

43

Trivago

2.19

1.35

1.55

2.62

5.63

na

62.2

12.7

19

14

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Travel business updates
15 January 2021
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in December at 2.19mn -68.8%, all-2020 25.2mn -70.0%.
  Our selection of some all-2020 counts: Argentina 9.96mn -77.1%, Armenia 0.83mn -74.1%, Brazil 9.09mn -52.3%, Italy 1.97mn -76.0%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for December: air tickets sold US$1bn  -83%; average US roundtrip ticket US$336, which we calculate is -29.4%; passenger trips 6.51mn -66% (domestic 4.2mn -64%, international 2.3mn -70%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$2.66mn -61%; EMD transactions 53.4k -56%.
-For December (compared with November 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: passenger trips -6% (domestic -9%, international -1%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-Any rounding by ARC.
[] STR* reports on hotels in December:.
-Dubai occupancy 71.0% (-10.0%), average room rate US$166 (Dh608.92 -9.1%).
-London 24.0% (-70.3%), US$117 (£85.58 -46.2%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

US travel agencies, weekly
14 January 2021
ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -64.69%. 2. -73.16%. 3. -75.36%. 4. -56.26%. 5. -65.91%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.
-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.
-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.
-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.
-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.
-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-November 22. 1. -71.2%. 2. -81.7%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.4%. 5. -72.1%.
-November 15. 1. -67.4%. 2. -78.9%. 3. -70.12%. 4. -53.59%. 5. -61.79%.
-November 8. 1. -68.4%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -54.3%. 5. -69.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Our outlook
13 January 2021
The following extracted from our input for an external report.
1 What is your assessment of performance in your business September-December 2020 compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Worse.
2 What have been the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] in the last 4-month period?
Covid-19.
3 What are prospects for performance in your business January-April compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Worse.
4 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] for that period?
Worse, although better than outlook, say, two months ago. The reason is the arrival of vaccines for covid 19.
5 What is your assessment of performance in your business in 2020 as compared to 2019?
Worse.
6 What are your prospects for performance in your business in 2021 as compared to 2020?
Much better.
7 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] in 2021?
Vaccines for covid 19 will prompt a restart, but still a long way from 2019.
8 What will be the major travel trends in 2021?
Selected from choices provided:
-Domestic tourism, travel close to home
-Last-minute booking
-Health and safety measures
  But all still linked to the progress of covid-19 vaccines. And their presumed efficiency. For instance, slower restart in Bali - because Indonesia has approved China's Sinovac-made vaccines, and if there is still no clear information on tests for these, and still not approved in US and Europe.
9 Will the vaccine contribute to accelerate the recovery of [the international travel business]?
(There is not a ‘vaccine’ (singular); there are many covid vaccines.)
Yes, but there may be twists - see #8.
10 When do you expect a rebound in [the international travel business] in your country?
We don't have a 'country'. But a ‘rebound’ will start with a Dead Cat Bounce from the big falls starting February and March 2020. So this February.
11 When do you expect [the international travel business] to return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels in your country?
We don't have a 'country'. However, worldwide - broadly - summer 2021, but with many differences.
12 What are the three main factors weighing on the recovery of [the international travel business]?
Selected from choices provided:
-Travel restrictions
-Slow virus containment
-Low consumer confidence
13 Is domestic [travel] driving the recovery in your destination?
We don't have a 'destination'. However, worldwide - broadly - yes.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
8 January 2021
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in December for US hotel companies was 4,574 +5.0% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -13.2%. Our database shows their end-2019 Index was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 178. Previous month 175; end-2019 195.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 146. Previous month: 117; end-2019 211.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. Previous month: World 177, Asia Pacific 50, Europe 154, US 326. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 139. Previous month 131; end-2019 160.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 95. Previous month 98; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Airline business update, November
8 January 2021
IATA* reports for November:
-Worldwide RPKs -70.3%, ASKs -58.6%, load factor 58.0% -23.0pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -61.6%, Europe -82.2%, Middle East -84.5%, North America -67.6%.
-International RPKs -88.3% - Asia Pacific -95.0%, Europe -87.0%, Middle East -86.0%, North America -83.0%.
-Domestic RPKs -41.0% - Australia -79.8%, Brazil -34.5%, China -4.8%, India -49.6%, Japan -39.5%, Russia -23.0%, US -59.9%.
*Notes:
-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US hotel updates
7 January 2021
STR* results reports, weekly:
-27 December-2 January occupancy 40.6% (-17.2%), average room rate US$107.93 (-21.5%).
-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).
-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).
-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).
-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).
-22-28 November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%).
-15-21 November 41.2% (-32.6%) US$88.54 (-29.0%).
-8-14 November 43.2% (-32.7%) US$90.58 (-28.6%).
-1-7 November 44.2% (-35.9%) US$91.40 (-31.1%).
-25-31 October 44.4% (-29.0%) US$91.56 (-27.4%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

2020 air traffic
29 December 2020
Cirium* reports on air traffic in 2020:
-World passenger traffic (presumed to be RPKs) estimated -67%; to same levels as 1999.
-Airlines cut flights to 16.8mn -49%.
-Domestic flights 13mn (Cirium rounded) -40%. International 3.8mn -68%.
-Domestic flights 77% of total.
-Highest daily flights 95.0k January 3; lowest 13.6k -86% April 25.
-Worldwide, Southwest Airlines operated most flights, 854.8k. In Asia Pacific, China Southern Airlines operated most, 487.7k; Europe Ryanair 205.0k; Middle East Qatar 82.4k.
-Worldwide, Atlanta busiest airport, 245.0k arriving flights. Worldwide busiest air route Seoul-Jeju, 70.7k flights.
-Narrowbody aircraft operated 6-7 hours daily in Q3; it was 9-10 in Q3 2019.
-Most-used aircraft type A320, 5.49mn flights.
-30% of world commercial fleet in storage.
-Q4 bookings -78%.
-Booking window fallen from 6-12 months to 6-8 weeks.
*Notes:
-Cirium is a UK-based data and analysis company owned by publicly-quoted Relx (sic).
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US hotels in 2021
23 December 2020
HNN* forecasts for US hotels in 2021:
-Average room rate 83.2 (indexed to 100 in 2019) +5%; 2022 89.6, 2023 93.5, 2024 97.5. Return to 2019 levels, not known, but not until at least 2025.
-Pipeline ‘in construction’, currently 213,000 rooms, will fall; no numerical forecast given. Earlier peak R211.7k 2007; earlier trough R49.9k 2011
*Notes:
-HNN = Hotel News Now, the publication division of STR (Smith Travel Research).
-HNN also forecasts hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
11 December 2020
[] IATA* forecasts for Europe (see also table):
-2020 Europe RPKs -70%, Middle East (-73%). Other regions not given.
-2021 Asia Pacific (50%), Europe RPKs +47.5%, Middle East (-73%), North America (60.5%). Other regions not given.
-Intra-EU bookings -81% (on a period believed to be  August to 10 January 2021) compared to the usual pattern for this period.
-Since 2019, connectivity -68% in Frankfurt, -67% London, -67% Paris, -66% Istanbul, -64% Moscow, -53% Amsterdam.
*Notes:
-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-Where rounded, IATA rounded.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Forecast falls in airline business in Europe, 2020


Market

Seat sales fall,%

Seat sales fall,mn

Airline revenue fall,US$bn

Jobs at risk,x1000

GDP fall,US$bn

Made in:

Apr

Dec

Apr

Dec

Apr

Dec

Apr

Dec

Apr

Dec

France

-55

-74

-80

-109

-14

-19

-393

-511

-35

-46

Germany

-57

-74

-103

-132

-18

-21

-484

-603

-34

-43

Russia

-54

-60

-63

-70

-9

-10

-404

-480

-9

-11

Spain

-54

-76

-114

-160

-16

-22

-901

-1117

-59

-74

Turkey

-51

-63

-55

-68

-7

-9

-519

-620

-23

-27

UK

-55

-76

-140

-194

-26

-36

-661

-859

-50

-66

Notes: Full table in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report. Source: IATA = International Air Transport Association.

Travel business updates
4 December 2020
[] ECM* reports on Europe travel in 2019:
-Bednights 690mn +4.3% in European cities (it also reports +4.4% and +4.9% growth); it was +4.2% in 2018. Capacity +4.9%
-Top-5 cities (it reports ‘performing cities’, but this seems a size ranking) - London, Paris, Berlin, Rome, Istanbul (growth +14.1%; others not given).
-Highest bed occupancy - Dublin 85.7%, London 83.6%, Rome 78.1%.
-Fastest source growth - Italy +17.5%, Germany +5.3%, Japan +4.1%. Lowest growth (presumably of ECM-selected major markets?) UK +0.2%.
-Meetings +7.6%, bednights +7.6% . ECM is not clear; this may be the same measure.
-Meetings participants +49.2%; 2018 -3% (ECM rounded).
-Meetings participant days +47.6%. No data for 2018.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-ECM = European Cities Marketing, a France-based association which tracks arrival trends into its 110 city members in Europe.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.


Travel business updates
3 December 2020
[] Excerpts from II* findings on outbound travel from Germany:
-33% of ‘German’ travellers (we believe the measure is actually residents in Germany, not just nationals) went on a trip June-August. That is above the 22% Europe average and the 19% worldwide average. The total of which these are a share is not clarified; 33% of the all-2020 total? All-2019? All Jun-Aug 19?
-60% of those from Germany travelled to a ‘neighbouring’ country . Not clear if this is only contiguous destinations.
-63% travelled by car, 25% air, 12% rail.
-66% said their trip was ‘better than expected’, 27% ‘as expected’, 7% were ‘less satisfied’.
-Those planning to travel abroad in the next 12 months has grown +6% compared with a survey in June. 
-Destinations, in order (no data), Spain, then Italy, Austria.
*Notes:
-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] Research by Montpellier Business School on travel from France found:
-61% hope/plan to fly within 12 months. It was 63% in 2019.
-However, 55% will wait six months before flying.
-Europe would be the destination for 71%, then France 61% .
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
20 November 2020
[] PCW* reports on loyalty programs (LP):
-25% LP members trip spend is at least US$6000, twice the share of those who are not LP members.
-74% of LP members are influences to select a particular brand when booking an airline, 72% when booking accommodation, 55% car rental, 41% cruise.
-For those not an LP member 57% 47% 33% 22%.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data.
-Believed to be US respondents; not clarified.
-A full report on this topic in our Net Value monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has been reported as forecasting 50% of business travel will ‘go away’* after covid has been stopped.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-Presumed to 50% of pre-covid travel.

Travel business updates
19 November 2020
[] Cotri* estimates/forecasts:
-18mn -90% international trips by China residents in 2020.
-100mn +445.6% in 2021.
-180mn +80.0% in 2022.
*Notes:
-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
18 November 2020
[] ECM-FK* report:
-At 27 October, inbound flight bookings to 27 EU* destinations (+UK) for Q4 fell -85.6%.
-Paris -82.3% was #2, but overtook #1 London (its fall not given).
-Lowest falls: Heraklion, Greece - 25.4% ; Faro, Portugal -48.7% ; Athens, -71.4%; Naples -73.4%; Larnaca, Greece -74.2%. Highest: Porto, Portugal -74.5%; Mallorca, Spain -74.6%; Stockholm -75.8%; Malaga, Spain -78.2%; Lisbon -78.8%.
*Notes:
-ECM=European Cities Marketing, FK=Forward Keys.
-From the ECM-FK Traffic Barometer.
-EU (European Union) comprises 27 countries since the UK left end-2019.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel trends
17 November 2020
ARC* and Expedia have published their Travel Trends Report for 2021. We extract less this year because we believe that forecasts during these covid times may have interest-value but less market-value.
  Extracts:
-*US domestic air ticket prices May-October were minus 25-35%.
-*International air ticket prices in the US ‘normalized’ to 2019 levels in mid-June, minus 30-35% ‘during the fall months’. 
-In 2019, the average flight booking was 35 days in advance. ‘During the onset of the pandemic’ it was 46 days, ‘now’ 29 days. First time ‘in years’ below 30 days.
-*This year, refundable accommodation rates were booked 10% more often.
-Average rates for refundable bookings were 20% cheaper this year.
-*Top-3 domestic ‘trending’ destinations this year: Lake Havasu, Arizona; New Bern, North Carolina; Hamptons, New York.
-*Most-searched destinations. Beach resorts: Cancun, Mexico #1; Riviera Maya, Playa del Carmen and Tulum, Mexico #2; Punta Cana, Dominican R #5. Vacation cities: Las Vegas #3; Orlando #4; Miami #8.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
16 November 2020
[] Cotri* reports 2019 China outbound travel from the China Tourism Academy:
-155mn +3.3% trips. Cotri’s own count is 170mn +4.9%.
-US$133.8bn +2% spend (quoted in US$). Our database, from WTO*, shows US$254.6bn -4.2% - giant differences.
-We calculate spend-per-trip at US$863 based on CTA/CTA figures (spend/trips), US$787 CTA/Cotri, US$1498 WTO/Cotri, US$1643 WTO/CTA.
*Notes:
-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Saudi Arabia visitor outlook
5 November 2020
GD* reports on Saudi Arabia’s visitor-arrival forecasts:
-SA claims to be on track to count 100mn visitors in 2030. GD says this would mean +600% on its 17mn* visitors in 2019.
-GD forecasts 21mn in 2023, but does not forecast for 2030.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-WTO data shows 17.5mn +14.3% visitors in 2019; GD reports 17mn (growth not given). GD also refers to SA’s pilgrim share, but provides no data. SA official data for 2019 indicates 2.5mn +4.9% for the 1-week hajj, 7.5mn for the umrah, which runs over a whole year; we believe that was +10.9%.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

Rail travel outlook
29 October 2020
A GD* survey on rail travel found:
-48% said reducing their environmental footprint is now more important than before covid, 37% said this is as important as before. No data on 15% balance. GD interprets this as a boost for rail travel on the basis that rail is considered more environmentally-friendly.
-36% want information/news on companies’ sustainability initiatives; in March this was 34%. We believe the 2-pt difference could be a margin of error, thus possibly no change, but GD interprets this as growth.
-In 2019, there were 2.1bn domestic rail trips worldwide and 1bn (GD rounded) air trips. Source not given. Or change. Or crucial qualifications on ‘trip’ as the number of rail journeys is vastly greater than 2.1bn; our database indicates that Japan alone, for instance (the largest domestic rail market), counts near 30bn. And air travel is counted in various ways, but rarely ‘trips’; is that the same as seats sold?
-In 2019, there were 41mn international rail trips worldwide and 735mn air trips. (Notes/comments broadly as for previous item.)
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

Visitor arrivals Jan-Aug
27 October 2020
WTO* reports on visitor arrivals:
-Total Jan-Aug arrivals fell -70%. August -79%, July -81%.
-Jan-Jul -700mn fewer arrivals compared with 2019, spend (estimated; WTO reports as actual) -US$730bn, 8x loss ‘on the back of’ the 2008-9 financial crisis.
-Americas Jan-Aug arrivals fell -65%, Asia Pacific -79%, Europe -68%, Middle East - 69%.
-Asia Pacific August -96%, July -96%, Europe -69% -72%. Data not given for other regions.
-All-2020 forecast -70%.
-Of WTO’s Panel of Experts, most (share not given) forecast a ‘rebound’ in arrivals in Q3 2021, 20% in 2022. ‘Rebound’ not defined. Statistically, a dead-cat-bounce may result in growth in Q2 2021, as WTO reports the Q2 fall this year was -94.9%, and only -28.5% in Q1; we estimate Q3 could be around -80%.
*Notes:
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Why people are not travelling
22 October 2020
A survey* on why people are not travelling, by PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data), found:
-Don’t want to travel with covid restrictions: France 28%, Germany 32%, Italy 30%, Spain 45%, UK 32%, US 28%.
-Concern for personal safety: 15% 18% 18% 28% 25% 26%.
-Health considerations: 13% 24% 5% 30% 25% 23%.
-Increased risk for covid: 18% 23% 8% 20% 22% 22%.
-No desire to travel: 23% 22% 18% 20% 25% 20%.
-Financial considerations: 32% 33% 45% 24% 26% 18%.
*Notes:
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Africa/Mideast air forecasts
21 October 2020
IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts*:
-For Africa for 2020, seat sales (to/from/within) 45mn, which we calculate is -71.0%. That would be 30% of the 2019 total; in July it forecast 45%. For 2021, it forecasts 70mn, which would be +55.6%. A return to 155mn as in 2019 is forecast for 2023.
-For the Middle East for 2020, seat sales (to/from/within) 60mn, which we calculate is -70.4%. Falls are the same as for Africa -30% of the 2019 total, against 45% forecast in July. For 2021, it forecasts 90mn, which would be +50.0%. A return to 203mn as in 2019 is forecast for 2024.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Airport passenger counts
19 October 2020
Passenger numbers through airports in Europe*, end of each month from March-September:
-All Europe March -96%, April -99%, May -98%, June -90%, July -72%, August -67%, September -72%.
-EU/EEA/Switzerland/UK -97% -99% -98% -91% -73% -70% -75%.
-Non-EU -90% -99% -97% -84% -68% -54% -55%.
-Benelux -97% -99% -96% -91% -74% -71% -78%.
-Eastern Europe -97% -99% -97% -93% -74% -68% -76%.
-Nordics/Baltics -96% -96% -96% -87% -74% -77% -79%.
-Southern Europe -98% -99% -98% -90% -70% -64% -69%.
-France -97% -99% -98% -88% -67% -60% -70%.
-Germany -97% -99% -98% -90% -75% -76% -79%.
-Italy -97% -99% -99% -90% -70% -63% -69%.
-UK -95% -99% -98% -96% -81% -73% -77%.
*Notes:
-Data from Airports Council International.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Canada/US travel survey
14 October 2020
WTTC* and Travel Leaders Group* (together, WT), following a survey*, report:
-99% of respondents (WL define them as travellers, but they are not yet that) in Canada and the US are ‘eager’ to travel again.
-54% say they are ‘dreaming’ of when they can travel again.
-45% have made or started to make travel plans.
-23% plan to travel by end-2020, 70% in 2021, 18% in 2022. As reported; total above 100%.
-Above 50% (figure not given) are concerned about: the risk of being infected when travelling; being stuck while away from home; being quarantined.
-Less than 50% (figure not given) are concerned about: them or family member contracting covid while travelling; getting a refund if trip is cancelled; family members with higher-risk health conditions.
-60% said a requirement for a negative covid test (ie, the patient does not have covid) on arrival would make no difference, or would be regarded as a ‘positive’ (positive requirement; not a positive test). 40% said a negative covid test on arrival would be a deterrent to travelling.
-Of those who plan a holiday, 47% would fly, 21% drive, 22% cruise. Details of remaining 10% not given.
-International ‘destinations of interest’ are 38% Europe, 34% Caribbean, 15% Mexico. The balance is for nearly everywhere else, but not enumerated, although WL add Canada for those surveyed in the US, but do not include the US for travellers from Canada.
-‘Anywhere uncrowded’ is ‘high on the list’ as a desirable destination. That reminds us of a Yogi Berra quote: ‘No one goes there anymore; it’s too crowded’. And our rejoinder: ‘Everyone goes there now; it’s so quiet’.
*Notes:
-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
-Travel Leaders Group is a US-based company that has 7000 owned, franchised, affiliate travel agencies mainly in Canada, US; other countries noted are Mexico, UK. Main Source: Wikipedia.
-Survey in September. Not clear if by the Travel Leaders Group for WTTC, or something else.
-At press time, WL had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel plans
7 October 2020
A survey (in July and August) by OAG* and JD Power* (together OJ):
-79% of those surveyed*, and 81% of those in North America*, plan to fly on domestic routes in the next six months.
-69% 73% plan to fly on international routes in the next six months.
-33% have not (and do not plan to) changed their travel plans because of covid. No separate data for North America. Not reported, but this might properly be termed as 66% have changed their plans because of covid. OJ thus provide no information on what, and in what way, those potential travellers changed/might change their plans.
-Millennials* and Generation-Z* are more likely to fly domestically (84% v 79%), and less likely to change their travel plans (66% v 70%). Region (world or North America) not noted.
-Travel agents (OJ noted only OTAs, although we presume people would want the same from offline travel agents) to provide health notifications on flights and hotels (61%) and covid transmission rates at destinations (53%). Region (world or North America) not noted.
-Safety measures those flying in North America want are: passengers and staff to wear masks; middle-seat empty; distribution of individual disinfectant wipes for personal areas. No separate comment for all-world.
*Notes:
-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

WTO on domestic travel
22 September 2020
WTO* reports on domestic travel - as a sector likely to recover from covid faster than international travel. (In fact, this is already happening, and seen in many statistics.)
  It reports:
-In 2018, there were 9bn domestic trips.
  WTO notes this was 6x international arrivals, but does not note growth, or estimates for 2019. Our database indicates growth was flat in 2018, or perhaps a fractional fall (-0.2%). For 2019 we estimated +3.5%, which is the same growth as for international travel.
  Travel numbers have less value because there are different types of measures, with many not comparable from one destination to the next. As noted above, WTO reports 9bn trips for 2018. We estimate 10bn but, as noted, the total itself does not have much value; country-by-country measures have more actionable value.
-WTO reports that domestic travel spend in (the 37) OECD* destinations is 75% of total travel spend, and in the EU* 1.8x higher than inbound travel spend.
  To partially match presentation of these two measures, we calculate that domestic travel spend: in the OECD is 3x higher than international spend; in the EU 64% of total travel spend.
  Note, however, that the WTO compares with outbound spend for the OECD measure, but with inbound spend for the EU measure. It does not attempt to harmonise these.
-Largest domestic markets in terms of spend are the US US$1tn, Germany US$249bn, Japan US$201bn, UK US$154bn, Mexico US$139bn. Changes or year not given.
-Some initiatives to boost domestic travel: Costa Rica moved all 2020-21 holidays to Mondays to create long weekends; Italy, per-capita (PC) contributions of US$595 (€500) to spend on domestic accommodation; Malaysia US$227 PC vouchers for domestic travel; Malta US$120 (€100) PC vouchers for retail spend; Thailand to subsidise 5mn hotel nights at 40% of ‘normal’ (whatever they are) room rates for five nights.
*Notes:
-OECD. (Most from Wikipedia.) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. An inter-governmental economic body with 37 member countries. Founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. Sometimes described as a ‘rich-country body’ as its members are in general the wealthiest developed countries.
-EU (European Union) comprises 27 countries since the UK left end-2019.
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Visitors; first half
17 September 2020
WTO* reports:
-Visitor arrivals fell -440mn -65% Jan-Jun, and -93% in June. Number not given.
-By region - Americas -55%, Asia Pacific -72%, Europe -66%, Middle East -57%.
-By sub-region - Northeast Asia -83%, Southern Mediterranean -72%. WTO lists just these two, noting their falls were the greatest.
-Visitor spend -US$460bn Jan-Jun, 5x the fall in 2009 after the 2008 world financial crisis.
-By early September, 53% of destinations had eased travel restrictions.
-In May, WTO forecast based on three scenarios, expecting 58-78% falls for all-2020. It now forecasts -70%.
-It forecasts a return to 2019 visitor arrival numbers will take 2-4 years.
*Notes:
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

France travellers
15 September 2020
A study by VVF* on France travellers found:
-Of those who took a holiday this past summer, 72% were satisfied; another 24% also, but felt concerned about the sanitary measures; 4% were not happy.
-Of the 83% who planned to take a holiday, 73% already did, 11% are due to go this month, 16% decided not to travel.
-Of that 16%, 60% were worried about covid, 17% did not have enough money, 13% problems related to travel agency or employer; 10% because they were concerned about ‘things’.
-90% travelled domestically this year, compared with 76% in 2019, and forecast to be 79% in 2021. Within Europe 9% 17% 15%. Outside Europe 1% 7% 6%.
-Accommodation shares. Camping/holiday centres etc were 77% this year, compared with 65% in 2019, and are forecast to be 74% in 2021. Friends/AirBnB-like 18% 24% 17%. Hotels 3% 11% 6%.
*Notes:
-VVF Ingenierie, a France-based consultant.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTTC forecasts spend in US
3 September 2020
WTTC* forecasts:
-Spend by visitors to the US this year will be US$155bn below what was originally forecast (we believe by WTTC), which would be -79%.
  Other relative past data:
-2019 visitor-spend US$195.1bn, a 16% share; domestic travel 84%.
-New York shares (in 2018) were 45% and 55%.
*Notes:
-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
-An important part of its work has been to explain to world governments how valuable was the travel business (which, in respect of its name, the WTTC must define as the meaningless ‘travel & tourism’).
-What the WTTC has been struggling to do in its 30 years of existence, was achieved in 4/5 months of the covid coronavirus this year. Surely everyone now knows the value of the travel business?
-Although not expected to disband, WTTC has not yet announced any new/replacement mission.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
20 August 2020
[] OE* forecasts visitor arrivals (VAs) will fall -57% this year, which would mean 847mn fewer arrivals. Other forecasts:
-VAs to return to 2019 levels ‘by 2024’. OE does not give totals, nor clarify if that is a total for 2023 or 2024; we believe it is 2024.
-Region VAs this year. North America -69% ((it also reports -70%) this year, Asia Pacific -57% or -203mn, Northeast Asia -61%, Europe -56% or -414mn arrivals.
-Destination VAs this year. Spain -55%, US -76.5% or -61mn VAs.
-City VAs this year, top-3 in three regions. Bangkok -66% (-14.5mn all-Thailand), Hong Kong -71%, Macau -60%. London -60% or -9.8mn, Paris -48%, Rome -53%. Los Angeles -77%, New York -79%, Orlando -78%.
-Domestic VAs forecast to return to 2019 levels ‘by 2022’. OE does not give totals, nor clarify if that is a total for 2021 or 2022; we believe it is 2022.
*Notes:
-OE = UK-based Oxford Economics, unrelated to the university.
-Topics and numbers selected by OE.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
13 August 2020
[] Cote d’Azur’s DMO reports onsummer (presumed July/August but report in mid-August):
-July hotel occupancy 58% - 39% in the first week, 72% at the end. (Comparison not given.)
-August 1st 2-weeks 85% -4pts.
-July visits, museums and monuments -40%. (Number not given.)
*Notes:
-Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is brand identity; knowing what is meant by CDA.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Findings from an ITB China (ITBC)survey on industry-participants in the China travel market include: 
-90% say travel is a preferred leisure activity.
-40% have recently received enquiries from consumers about outbound travel.
-Over May and June, 60% said their clients were interested in buying travel products.
-Annual spend in the next year. 10.5% estimate under US$700, 60% US$700-2800, 24% US$2800-7060, 5.5% above US$7060. (ITBC roundings.)
-During the Tomb-Sweeping public holiday in April, there were 43.3mn domestic visitors spending US$1.18bn. (Methodology and comparisons not given.)
-During public holidays in May, there were 115mn domestic visitors spending US$6.79bn. (Ditto.)
-During the Dragon Boat public holiday in June, there were 48.8mn domestic visitors spending US$1.75bn. (Ditto.)
-Highest visitor numbers to ‘popular destinations’ has grown +273% over previous period (believed to be start-July to mid-July). Highest number of ‘tourists from popular departure destinations’ +1200% month-on-month. (Methodology, descriptions, numbers, not given.)
*Notes:
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
31 July 2020
[] WTO* reports on covid closures:
-40% of destinations have eased travel restrictions at July 19. It was 22% June 15, 3% May 15.
-Of those 87 destinations, four have lifted all restrictions.
-Of the 87, 20 are small islands, many of which depend on tourism as an important part of employment, economy, development.
-Of the 87, 41 are in Europe.
-Of the 115 that have borders closed, 88 have been closed for more than 12 weeks.
*Notes: WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobbying body for the travel business.
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports on the UK travel market:
-Forecasts a fall greater than it forecast in early June - 2020 gross bookings to fall -55% to US$28bn (£22.6bn).
-Monthly changes (our Net Value estimates on PCW data) - Jul -80%, Aug -70%, Sep -60%, Oct -55%, Nov -45%, Dec -35%.
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
30 July 2020
[] Excerpts from II* findings on Germany outbound travel:
-70% will continue to travel abroad (precise period not given), 20% domestic, 10% no travel.
-80% wanted to holiday before end-2020.
-Spain first, then Italy, France, Austria. No data given.
-85% are anxious, and 80% see travel as posing an additional risk of infection.
-For shorthaul destinations, Germany rated safest, then Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria. For longhaul, Korea, Singapore, UAE. No data given.
*Notes:
-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts:
-RPKs to return to pre-covid levels in 2024; before it forecast 2023.
-Seat sales to return to pre-covid levels in 2023; before it forecast 2022.
-55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.
-2020 seat sales to fall -55%; in April it forecast -46%. 2021 seat sales to grow +62% (which would be down -30% on 2019).
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US visitors update
29 July 2020
[] The US DMO has published more data on characteristics of 2019 visitors:
-Total 40.4mn -1.3%, spending US$211.4bn, ‘down slightly’.
-Leisure and VFR (visiting friends or relatives) 33.1mn. Change shown only against 1997, when it was 18.8mn. We do not understand why a comparison is given with a year 22 years ago. We could understand 2000, but also would need a comparison with 2018.
-States visited 1.4 (1.6). Those visiting only one state 75.9% (63.1%).
-Length of stay 16.9 nights (15.4).
-Travel group size 1.7 persons (1.6).
-‘Conventional’ tour package 13.3% share (22.5%).
-Repeat travellers 78.7% (75.3%).
-Female share 48% (34%).
-89.3% rated their experience as ‘average/good/excellent’, 97.1% ‘met or exceeded expectations’, 97.7% expect to revisit. Comparison with 1997 not given.
-76.0% share stayed in hotels/motels for 1+ nights. Comparison with 1997 not given, but -0.2pts over 2018.
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
6 July 2020
[] Unctad* has issued a report on the travel business. As its base finding is wrong (unless mis-stated), we presume the report findings are also wrong.
  Unctad has used WTO* data to state that ‘tourism’ has grown ‘in value’ from US$490bn to US$1.6tn* in the last 20 years.
  It has not.
  Those WTO figures are visitor-spend in destinations. Not only are they subject to different methods of collection (and thus should better be defined as an estimate), but they exclude some spending - most notably on air travel.
  That a United Nations body should make such a giant error - although the WTO is opaque on its methodology - is disturbing for those trying to analyse its analysis of the travel business.
*Notes:
-Unctad = United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Wikipedia reports Unctad, established in 1964, is part of the UN secretariat, dealing with trade, investment, development issues.
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobby group for the travel business.
-Our WTO database shows US$1.5tn visitor spend in 2019, a US$100bn difference.

If outbound travel switched to domestic
22 June 2020
See table for our calculation. Excerpts:
-Both China and India would actually have more ‘visitors’ if some of its residents switched from travelling outbound.
-Biggest loser would be Hong Kong. In addition to our statistical finding, we believe that few (less than 5%?) of outbound travellers would switch to a domestic ‘break’.
-Likewise for Singapore.
-For Australia, Japan, and possibly Korea, we believe those switching to domestic would be greater than our statistics indicate.
-For India, our calculation indicates a gain for the inbound market if 40% switched.

If outbound travel switched to domestic
If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xxx% of visitor arrivals


Market

Share*,%

Australia

47.8

China

173.7

Hong Kong

9.3

India

117.1

Japan

25.2

Korea

65.6

Singapore

22.4

Notes: Based on 2019 data. TBA=Travel Business Analyst. TBA manipulation on counts of inbound and outbound travel. China and Hong Kong include technically-domestic travel between China, Hong Kong, Macau. Source: DMOs for all except Australia (government), China (TBA estimates), Hong Kong (government for outbound), India (TBA estimates for outbound), Singapore (government).

US travel forecast to fall
18 June 2020
TE* forecasts for USTA* a -45% fall in total travel spend in the US this year. That is a bigger fall than the -31% expected in domestic and international travel. That means travellers are forecast to spend less when they do travel.
  This matches TE’s May forecast for STR* - a -46% fall in 2020 US hotel occupancy, then +46% in 2021.
  Other findings:
-Domestic traveller spend -40% to US$583bn.
-International visitor spend -75% to US$39bn, with most of the percentage fall from Overseas visitors, -69% to US$12bn. (Spend from Canada and Mexico visitors is bigger, totalling US$17bn.)
-Although recovery is forecast from 2021 in all sectors, some sectors are forecast to be below 2019 results at the end of this forecast period, 2023.
-Still below would be 2023 total visitor arrivals (although Canada and Mexico are forecast to have passed their 2019 totals). But 2023 spend is still forecast to be below 2019 - domestic and international.
-Of course, AAGRs (annual average growth rates) are forecast to be much slower. Of those, where our database has earlier forecasts, USTA forecast a +2.5% AAGR 2018-24 for visitor arrivals; now we calculate it forecasts a -4.9% AAGR over a different 2019-23. (Even if we extrapolate, an AAGR 2019-24 would still be negative, -1.7%.)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-TE = Tourism Economics. Part of Oxford Economics, and unrelated to the university.
-USTA = US Travel Association. Member- not government-funded. Acts as an industry association, not a promoting body such as a DMO.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel Trottings: A bumbling bureaucrat
17 June 2020
See https://wp.me/pTv9-qq
Excerpt:
...‘Our interpretation is that Guterres (Antonio, head of the United Nations) tells us that travelling can help the world recover from the damage caused by the covid coronavirus.
...‘Now for the most egregious countering fact - travel was the sole cause of the worldwide spread of covid. If the virus started in Wuhan, China, as generally believed, then it would likely have not gone further if the first carrier/s stayed in Wuhan. But they travelled, as did others, and so spread the virus worldwide.
...‘To have the chutzpah not only to ignore this fact, but to add that travel can help the recovery, seems shockingly irresponsible - if not plain stupid.’

WTTC on job/business losses
12 June 2020
The WTTC* has reissued forecasts on job losses due to the covid coronavirus. Its earlier forecasts, in late-April, contained mistakes, some of which we refer to here.
  WTTC did not respond to our questions, and so we were unable to provide all corrections. Its reissued forecast is better presented than its first, although some mistakes are repeated.
  WTTC has forecast for three different scenarios, see below. Its current forecast for the worst-case (see below) includes:
-198mn (WTTC also reports 197mn) travel jobs will be lost due to covid. Previously WTTC did not clarify the period; its new forecast is for 2020. It earlier forecast -101mn job losses, but as the period was not provided, we cannot determine how its current forecast compares with the previous one. WTTC presents this as ‘new research’ and as a +96% growth from the -101mn jobs lost, so it would appear to be the same period, thus 2020.
Regions:
Regions in the ‘worst case’ (numbers rounded by Travel Business Analyst):
-Americas. -30mn (WTTC also reports -31mn) jobs lost (in April it forecast -14mn), -US$5.5tn loss in TGDP (travel GDP) (-US$791bn).
  We cannot understand the 7x difference between the old and new GDP forecasts, particularly as job losses are under 2x.
  Previously, we calculated that sub-regions North America, Latin America, Caribbean, were included in the Americas total. WTTC did not clarify that, but now it does.
  However, WTTC’s geographical knowledge on the Americas remains wrong - surprising given the fact that the organisation’s head is from Mexico! To explain (again), Mexico is part of North America as well as WTTC’s (non-geographical and technically incorrect) ‘Latin America’ (think of the three non-Latin ‘Guyanas’).
  We presume WTTC has not double-counted Mexico’s total, but that it has (wrongly) excluded the country from North America and included it in Latin America.
-Asia Pacific. -115mn -$1.9tn TGDP (-63mn -$1041bn). ThePacific’ was not shown in the earlier report; we presumed it was included in the Asia total but not so marked. WTTC has corrected what we now know was an error.
-Europe. -30mn -$1.6tn TGDP (-13mn -$709bn).
-Sub-region North America -18.2mn -$1.5tn TGDP (-8mn -$681bn).
Scenarios:
[] Worst-case. Current restrictions starting to ease from September for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from October for medium-haul, from November for longhaul. WTTC forecasts that this would cause a -73% fall in arrivals, and -64% in domestic travel - presumably for all-2020. WTTC notes domestic ‘arrivals’, but it is not clear if this is for arrivals in accommodation units, or something different.
[] Mid-case. Current restrictions starting to ease from June for regional travel, from July for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from August for medium-haul, from September for longhaul. That would cause a -53% fall in arrivals, and -34% in domestic travel.
[] Best-case: Current measures starting to ease from June for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from July for medium-haul, from August for longhaul. That would cause a -41% fall in arrivals, and -26% in domestic travel.
*Notes:
-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business. It terms all this a travel GDP (gross domestic product), which we usually reduce to TGDP.
-Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
-WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-WTTC reports that the travel business in 2019 represented a 10% (330mn) share of jobs, 25% of new jobs, 10.3% of world GDP.
-At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers. See https://wp.me/pTv9-q8
15 May 2020
Excerpt:
If outbound travel from selected markets in Europe switched to domestic


Market

Share*,%

 

Of inbound

Of domestic

Austria

15.4

38.0

Belgium

57.5

138.1

Denmark

21.8

23.3

France┼

11.8

6.3

Germany

111.7

27.2

Greece

1.2

6.1

Italy

9.3

10.6

Netherlands

43.9

35.3

Poland

26.0

10.7

Spain

7.9

4.7

Switzerland

52.2

91.8

UK╪

67.1

19.5

Notes:
-TBA manipulation on ES counts on outbound and domestic travel, and on WTO counts on inbound travel.
-*If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xx% of the annual inbound-visitor or domestic-traveller count.
-┼ES has also given an implausible, but unexplained, figure that would near double the shares shown.
-╪Based on 2013 data; even before it decided in 2016 to leave the European Union, the UK cooperated poorly with EU institutions.
Source: ES=Eurostat, TBA=Travel Business Analyst, WTO=World Tourism Organization.

France, Spain summer forecasts
14 May 2020
Home Exchange (HE) and Happydemics (together, HH) have forecast summer travel plans for the France and Spain markets. (HH reports as ‘French’ and ‘Spanish’, but indications are that this is not passport-defined.) Some findings:
[] France.
-49% plan to take a summer holiday. That is -20pts on a 2019 study by Trip Advisor (TA).
-21% have no plans; 13% will not take a summer holiday.
-76% will travel in France, with 15% internationally. We presume the 9% balance is undecided.
-58% will stay in their own holiday home, family home, or private home. HH commentary indicates this is to avoid hotels or holiday centres, to avoid crowding, but no data given. This share looks high, and as it is HE’s business area, perhaps the survey recipients were targetted.
[] Spain.
-43% plan a summer holiday - but with the (cancelling-out) proviso of ‘if the situation gets better’. No comparison given with 2019.
-62% plan to travel in Spain, 27% internationally. As this is 100%, the shares must be of those who plan to travel. In 2019 TA reported 39% planned their summer vacation in Spain. We do not know if we can deduce from this that the 2019 international share was 61%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, HH had not answered our request for clarifications.

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers
12 May 2020
Bernstein* appears to have taken OECD data to calculate winners and losers in dollars if international outbound travel this year switches to domestic travel.
-Top-3 losers - Spain -US$52.4bn, US -US$52.0bn, Turkey -US$32.5bn.
-Top-3 gainers - China +US$238.0bn, UK +US$31.4bn, Germany +US$30.3bn.
*Notes:
-Bernstein is a respected US-based research company, but at press time, it had not answered our request for clarifications.
-We believe its data is for 2018 and takes, say, visitor inbound spend, and deducts outbound spend by residents. We do that with WTO data and get US$55bn for Spain - close to Bernstein’s US$52bn.
-More complicated is China. Does Bernstein include Hong Kong and Macau, which are technically domestic areas? Again, our calculation is US$243bn without HK&M, which appears to indicate HK&M are not included in Bernstein’s China total.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTO 2020 forecast
8 May 2020
The WTO* forecasts all-2020 visitor arrivals (what it terms ‘international tourism’) minus 60-80%. Other data/forecasts:
-Details: World -22% Q1 2020, against +4% all-2019; AsPac -35% +4%; Europe -19% +4%; Americas -15% +2%.
-Fall in Q1 visitor spend (what WTO terms ‘exports’) -US$80bn. It also reports that figure for only March. Our database shows annual total US$1.5tn, so a monthly average US$122bn, but normally around US$100bn monthly in Q1.
-March visitor arrivals -57%.
-WTO’s 2020 forecast-falls are based on three different scenarios: 1, gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July, -58%; 2, same but in early September, -70%; 3, same but in early December, -78%.
-Fall in 2020: visitor arrivals, minus 0.85-1.1bn; visitor spend minus US$0.91-1.2tn.
-Direct ‘tourism’  jobs at risk 100-120mn. Unclear how WTO measures this, as some travel-industry jobs include not just those related to the inbound visitor business but also, say, domestic and outbound.
  WTO also asked some managers in the travel business to forecast:
-Q1: When do you expect tourism demand in your destination will start to recover? Contradiction with other data, some of which comments just on the inbound visitor business, and some of which are unclear.
-Q2: When do you expect international demand for your destination will start to recover? Different from Q1 in that this seems to be for the inbound visitor business.
    -Selected findings, Q1: May-Jun (domestic 14%, intl 3%); Jul-Sep (45%, 24%); Oct-Nov (25%, 34%); 2021 (15%, 39%).
    -Q2: May-Jun (AsPac 4%, Europe 2%, Americas 0 %); Jul-Sep (26%, 28%, 10%); Oct-Nov (31%, 31%, 40%); 2021 (39%, 39%, 50%).
*Notes:
-WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO), is a lobby group for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Full-year results
29 April 2020
Selected* (by TBA) 2019 counts from our database. All sourced from relevant principles except Air Asia (our additions of available data), Europe inbound (from Tourmis).
US
Aviation
[] New York JFK AP passengers 62.6mn +2%.
[] Southwest AL seats sold 134.0mn -1%.
Inbound
[] Hawaii 10.3mn +5%.
[] US 40.4mn +1%.
ASIA PACIFIC
Aviation
[] Air Asia (group) seats sold 92.1mn +13%.
[] Air China (group) seats sold 114.8mn +5%.
[] Cathay (group) seats sold 35.2mn -1%.
[] China Eastern (group) seats sold 121.2mn +9%.
[] China Southern (group) seats sold 151.6mn +8%.
[] Hong Kong AP passengers 71.5mn -4%.
[] Japan AL seats sold 35.5mn +2%.
[] Qantas (group) seats sold 56.4mn +1%.
[] Singapore AL (group) seats sold 38.1mn +7%.
[] Singapore AP passengers 69.8mn +3%.
Inbound
[] Australia 9.5mn +6%.
[] Bali 6.2mn +3%.
[] Hong Kong 12.1mn -14%.
[] India 10.9mn +3%.
[] Japan 31.9mn +2%.
[] Maldives 1.7mn +15%.
[] Singapore 19.1mn +3%.
Outbound
[] Australia 11.3mn +2%.
[] Japan 20.1mn +6%.
[] Korea 28.7mn +0.1%.
[] Singapore 10.7mn +3%.

EUROPE

Aviation
[] Air France (not group) seats sold 52.5mn +2%.
[] British AW (not group) seats sold 47.7mn +2%.
[] Easyjet seats sold 96.7mn +9%.
[] Frankfurt AP passengers 70.6mn +2%.
[] London Heathrow AP passengers 80.9mn +1%.
[] Lufthansa (not group) seats sold 71.3mn +2%.
[] Paris CDG AP passengers 76.2mn +5%.
[] Ryanair seats sold 150.2mn +7%.
[] Turkish AL seats sold 74.5mn +3%.
Inbound
[] Berlin 5.5mn +1%.
[] Germany 39.6mn +2%.
[] Madrid 5.4mn +4%.
[] Paris 12.8mn -3%.
[] Switzerland 9.2mn -11%.
[] UK 38.9mn +3%.
Outbound
[] UK 73.0mn +2%.

*Notes: Additional entries due in next month’s WYSK, with a selection included on this site.

WTTC wrong counts
28 April 2020
The WTTC* has issued estimates/forecasts on job losses due to the covid coronavirus that appear to include some mistakes.
  We believe these apparent mistakes are the result of poor presentation, not poor data. As WTTC has not responded to our questions, we are not able to provide corrections.
  It reports/forecasts:
-In one month 25mn jobs lost in the travel business. Period not clear; presumed Mar 25-Apr 24.
-Job losses in the travel business +30% in the last month. Period not clear; presumed Mar 25-Apr 24.
-101mn job losses due to the covid coronavirus. Period not clear.
-Economic loss US$2.7tn off world GDP; it forecast US$2.1tn end-March. Period not clear; presumed 2020.
-1mn jobs lost daily. Period not clear.
  WTTC has also provided regional breakdowns, although these also hide apparent mistakes, see below. (Numbers rounded by Travel Business Analyst.)
-Regions: Americas -14mn jobs lost, -US$791bn loss to GDP; Asia -63mn $1041bn; Europe 13mn $709bn; Middle East 3mn $96bn. Sub-region North America 8mn $681bn.
-Pacific not shown; we presume this is included in the Asia total but not so marked.
-We calculate that sub-regions North America, Latin America, Caribbean, are included in the Americas total - although WTTC does not clarify that.
-Mexico is part of North America and WTTC’s non-geographical Latin America. We presume WTTC has not double-counted Mexico’s total, but that it is (wrongly) excluded from North America and included in Latin America.
*Notes:
-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business.
-Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
-WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Asia Pacific visitor forecasts
24 April 2020
PATA* forecasts:
-Visitor arrivals in 2020 in Asia Pacific 500mn -32%; fall ranging from -16% to -44%.
-Regions. Americas -12%, Northeast Asia -51%, South Asia -31%, Southeast Asia -22%, West Asia (believed to be Middle East) -6%, Pacific -18%. Asia data not given.
-Visitor spend in 2020 in Asia Pacific US$594bn -27%. PATA’s earlier forecast was US$811bn.
-Regions. Americas expected to lose -US$35bn -13% in visitor spend, Asia -US$170bn -36%, Northeast Asia -US$123bn -48%, South Asia -US$13.3bn -33%, Southeast Asia -US$34.6bn -20%, Pacific -US$18bn -18%. West Asia data not given.
*Notes:
-PATA = Pacific Asia Travel Association, a regional promotional body.
-PATA’s 46 destinations include many not usually associated with Asia Pacific – such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, US, and sometimes Turkey (yes). PATA’s data should thus be read with that qualification in mind.
-The top-5 destinations, in order, are China, US, Hong Kong, Turkey, Macau. We have problems with all five. We believe Turkey and US should not be included in an Asia Pacific travel study. And China, Hong Kong, Macau are all ‘China’ - a fact endorsed by PATA adding the moniker ‘SAR’ (Special Administrative Region, of China) for HK&M. Thus many of these ‘visitors’ are actually domestic travellers.
-PATA might be unwilling to make a change that would probably upset all three destinations – likely to ‘lose’ millions of visitors (50mn total?). Also, China not only likes to come top in any ranking, but dislikes even more being down-rated.
-PATA gives no support (including response to questions) to non-member subscription publications such as ours, and so we are unable to clarify what may be misleading.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

New IATA 2020 forecasts
23 April 2020
IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts for 2020:
-Revenue loss by Europe’s airlines in 2020 -US$89bn, RPKs -55%. (March 24 forecasts, US$76bn, -46%.)
-Current 90% fall in air traffic puts 6.7mn jobs at risk (JAR), and a GDP impact of -US$452bn in Europe.
  Forecasts for top-5 biggest-fall markets:
  -France. Forecast -80mn fewer seats sold, -US$14.3bn revenue loss, 392.5k JAR, -US$35.2bn contribution to France’s GDP.
  -Germany. -103mn -US$17.9bn 483.6k -US$34bn.
  -Italy. -83mn -US$11.5bn 310.4k -US$21.1bn. 
  -Spain. -114mn -US$15.5bn 901.3k -US$59.4bn.
  -UK. -140mn -US$26.1bn 661.2k -US$50.3bn.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTO’s 2020 visitor/spend forecasts
31 March 2020
WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO, a loose lobby group for the travel business) forecasts for 2020:
-Visitor arrivals will fall 20-30%. Our database shows a 2019 total of 1.46bn +3.8%, which would mean 1.02-1.17bn arrivals, a 29-44mn fall.
-Visitor spend minus US$300-450bn -33%. Our database shows a 2018 (2019 not available) total of US$1462bn +5.7%; 2019 would probably have been US$1560bn. WTO’s forecast would put the 2020 total at US$1110-1260bn, a 19-28% fall.
-In 2009, the year following the worldwide financial fall, visitor arrivals fell -4%. In 2003, the year of the SARS coronavirus outbreak mainly contained in Asia, arrivals fell -0.4%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Our Air Asia 2019 counts
23 March 2020
The Air Asia group (AAG) sold 92.1mn +12.5% seats in 2019.
  These are our counts on AAG-released data. AAG does not provide all this data (for instance, releasing growth percentage only, not totals, on some measures), and does not add all AAG airlines. Air Asia X, for instance, is counted separately. Our total includes all.)
  Other findings:
-That growth compares with +15.9% in 2018, +13.0% 2017.
-The primary Malaysia division (excluding AAX) still accounts for a large share - 38% 2019, 39% 2018, 41% 2017.
-Of the two newest divisions, India seat sales were just short of 10mn +35.6%, and Japan just short of 500k +85.3%.
-Japan’s seat factor too low, at 79%; should be closer to 85%.
-AAX seat factor seriously low, at 81%. We believe it should be in the high-80s.
-The Thailand division, once a star performer seemingly on track to catch Malaysia, now slipping. Growth only +2.7% in 2019. Share 24%, 26% in 2018, 28% 2017.
-Indonesia, after some bad years earlier in the decade, grew +37.9%. But its total, 8.0mn, is not much better than the 7.9mn it counted in 2013.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

SELECTED ENTRIES - MOSTLY SUPERCEDED TRAVEL COUNTS, AND FORECASTS OUTDATED DUE TO COVID-19 - DELETED STARTING HERE

 

IATA on the Covid coronavirus
6 March 2020
IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports:
-2020 drop in passenger revenue US$63-113bn. That’s $63bn if Covid is contained in current markets with over 100 cases by 2 March; $113bn if a broader spread of Covid.
-Earlier analysis (on 20 February) put lost revenues at US$29.3bn - which assumed Covid would be largely confined to markets associated with China.
-Airline share prices have fallen 25% since the outbreak began, 21pts more than the fall at a similar point in the SARS coronavirus in 2003.
  Our data is for a different period. Our data shows February airline share prices fell -12% for airlines in Asia Pacific (excluding China), -27% Europe, -23% US. Conversely, all categories of travel stocks (including airlines) in China grew - by +10%, and for all China-based travel stocks (wherever quoted) +5%.
-Forecast market falls, annual: Italy -24%, China -23%, Iran -16%, Korea -14%, Japan -12%, France -10%, Germany -10%, Singapore -10%.
-Forecast market falls, annual: Asia (excluding China, Japan, Korea, Singapore) -11%, Europe (excluding France, Germany, Italy) -7%, Middle East (excluding Iran) -7%.
-Of missed US$63bn revenue, China would account for US$22bn. Markets associated with Asia (including China) would account for US$47bn. We do not know why the totals add up, but we believe perfect precision is not necessary in this case.
-Extensive Spread - markets that at 2 March had at least 10 confirmed Covid cases. The US$113bn missed revenue would be on a financial scale equivalent to losses in the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
-Forecast market impact if extensive spread of Covid:
   -Australia, China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam: seat sales -23%; passenger revenues -US$49.7bn.
   -Rest of Asia Pacific: -9% -$7.6bn.
   -Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, UK: -24% -$37.3bn.
   -Rest of Europe: -9% -$6.6bn.
   -Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, UAE: -23% -$4.9bn.
   -Rest of Middle East: -9% -$2.3bn.
   -Canada, US: -10% -$21.1bn.
-Positive. Oil prices have fallen -US$13/barrel since start-2020. This could cut US$28bn from the airlines’ fuel bill this year.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.


Cote d’Azur in 2019
28 February 2020
CRT* reports 2019 visitor results for France’s Cote d’Azur* (CDA). Much categorisation is different from what CRT reported for 2018; when relevant, we have added information on 2018 from our database.
  Details (any rounding by CRT):
-CRT did not report number of stays (= visitors) in 2019, but reported 11mn in 2018.
-Growth of domestic stays in some categories (see below) compensated for the fall in foreign.
-Hotel stays 4.5mn +2.4% - ‘stable’ Jan-Sep, grew +9% Oct-Dec.
-Hotel nights (not specified if guest- or room-nights) 10mn +1.4%. Occupancy 63% +1pt. CRT also reported 63% +1pt in 2018; its rounding might have caused this apparent discrepancy.
-3-star hotel nights +5% (number not given); occupancy 64% +2pts. 4/5-star hotel nights (number, growth, not given); occupancy, 65% +0.5pt.
-Hotel nights by France nationals +5%, foreigners 'almost unchanged'. (Hoteliers register nationality and residence, but report the less-important nationality count - as does CRT.)
-Accommodation nights in mountain locations were +4% Oct-Dec. Other categories not given.
-Number of foreigners 58% -2pts. We are not clear how this figure (presumably hotel occupancy, but possibly market share), is measured, nor whether it is important marketing information.
-Private accommodation 1.2mn stays; growth not given.
-Holiday resorts 0.6mn -5% stays.
-Of foreign markets, most were ‘stable’ or ‘changed marginally’. Specified: Japan +20%, Russia +9%, Middle East -26%. In 2019, CRT provided no analysis on China - the world’s largest travel market.
-Main foreign markets, reason for order not given: Italy +3%, UK/Ireland (CRT still combines these, even more anachronistic as the UK leaves the European Union and Ireland stays in) -3%, Germany ‘stable’, US +1%.
-Top-5 foreign markets for all types of accommodation, in order - Italy, UK/Ireland, US, Germany, Scandinavia (CRT sometimes wrongly includes Finland in ‘Scandinavia’; specifics not given here).
-Visitor spend (including accommodation, meals, shopping, excursions) down (figure not given). Share of visitors who spend more than US$83 (€75) daily was below 50% (figure not given).
-In 2018, CRT gave hotel rates (via the MKG consultancy), but these were for all France, not CDA. Growth was +3% in 'average price’ (we believe this is ‘average room rate’).
-In 2018, the visitor business was 15% of the region's GDP. Change not given, nor share in 2019.
-90% of visitors were ‘very satisfied’ with their stay in 2019. Those who were not satisfied fell by 50%. Data to put these in context not given.
-Nice airport (which the CRT reports as though it is the only airport for CDA, although there are 10 smaller ones handling commercial flights) counted 14.5mn +4.6% passengers.
-Two markets have priority for CRT promotional activity this year - Russia, US (despite weak direct air links).
*Notes:
-Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is that - brand identity.
-CRT (Comite Regional de Tourisme Cote d’Azur), the regional visitor office for the Cote d’Azur.
-At press time, CRT had not answered our request for clarifications.
 
Cirium and STR on Covid and SARS
24 February 2020
[] Cirium* reports on Covid affect:
-200,000 flights cancelled or removed from schedules to, from and within China.
-January 23 to February 18 99,254 scheduled flights, 89% domestic, cancelled.
-January 23-28, 9807 scheduled flights, 100% domestic, cancelled.
-For the first eight weeks of the year, Cirium reports worldwide capacity fell -0.9%. Weeks 8-10 showed a -10% fall, of which China’s airlines cancelled 60% of their flights.
-Most-affected airlines over January 23 to February 18: Lucky Air, with 51.2% of flights cancelled out of 4857 scheduled; China Southern, 53.8% of 44,274; Xiamen, 56.2% of 14,495.
-Most-affected airports: Wuhan, with 94% of flights cancelled (meaning 3443 flights). Percentage not given for others - Urumqi 4506 flights cancelled; Guiyang 4321; Changsha 4757; Hangzhou 6084.
*Notes: Cirium is a UK-based data and analysis company owned by Relx (sic).
[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on the SARS coronavirus in China in 2003:
-Lowest occupancy was May, 18%, with average room rate at US$73.58 (at today’s US$1 to Y7.04).
-August 67% US$78.41.
-Beijing May occupancy 10%, July 52%, August 65%, September 72%. 
-Guangdong (province) July 56%. Other months not given.
-Hong Kong July 60%, August 75%.
-Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai July 60%.

ICCA and IATA on the Covid coronavirus
20 February 2020
[] ICCA* reports:
-1065 meetings this year in Asia Pacific in its system.
-44 meetings affected by Covid, a 4.1% share.
-34 postponed, five cancelled, five relocated.
-Outside Asia Pacific, two meetings in Europe and one in Africa are postponed.
[] IATA* reports:
-RPKs for Asia Pacific airlines -13% for all-2020. Original forecast was +4.8%, so net impact will be -8.2%.
-Revenue loss -US$27.8bn, of which -US$12.8bn in China’s domestic market.
-Airlines outside Asia Pacific forecast to lose -US$1.5bn, bringing total worldwide revenue loss to -US$29.3bn, -5% lower passenger revenues compared to what IATA forecast end-2019, meaning -4.7% fewer RPKs.
-In December, IATA forecast +4.1% worldwide RPK growth, so this loss would result in a -0.6% worldwide fall for 2020.
-In 2003, the SARS coronavirus caused a -5.1% fall in RPKs of Asia Pacific airlines. 
*Notes:
-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.
-International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body.

ATF; Asean Tourism Forum; Brunei blocks Asean
20 January 2020
This time of the year, we usually report on travel product and travel marketing developments in the 10 Asean* destinations.
  This year, the Brunei host-committee for the Asean Travel Forum this month in Brunei, blocked attendance by Travel Business Analyst.
  Our first reaction was disappointment, then umbrage. Then on reflection, perhaps this is a better way. We espouse liberalism in the travel business, so that should be applied to coverage of travel industry events.
  But there are other factors, most important is that Brunei should not decide for Asean.
  Organisers need to think the reason for media attendance in the first place – to encourage editorial coverage of travel-related developments in the 10 destinations, not just the host destination.
  As it is, we will wait until ITB in Berlin in March to get the information we usually collect at ATF. But, because of ITBB logistics, we will probably not cover some smaller destinations that are also less important to Asean – say Brunei, Laos, Myanmar.
  There needs to be a change in rules for host destinations.
  Asean should give host committees their 'must' list of media (and probably of other hosted sectors as well, such as buyers). This can be companies as well as individuals. For instance, TTG Asia could be on the 'must' list as could, say, some named media people.
  If a person or company is on the host destination’s 'banned' list, then the host committee would have to transmit its reasons for the 'no', and Asean could decide whether to accept those reasons or not.
   Incredibly, Brunei's host committee does not have to transmit to anyone why we were delisted. So it could have been one person on the committee who said no, or other reasons. But without knowing those reasons, there is little we could do to change the decision.
  As a result, Brunei - representing about 5% of Asean's travel business - has prevented us from reporting on the 95%. Worse, no one in Asean cares whether this is a good or bad situation.
  We are prompted to write this because of our own experience, but the reasons are professional. For sure this has happened to other people in other destinations.
  Hosting an Asean event is a privilege, and a service to Asean. But Brunei appears to have ignored both those factors.
*Notes:
-Asean = Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean writes ‘Southeast’, even though that should make the abbreviation ASAN). Asean members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
-We did not seek comments from Asean for this report. Unfortunately, our experience is no acknowledgement, and never have we received a comment. We believe that despite the economic importance of the travel business to many of the 10 destinations, matters of state, not economics, get most attention.

Americas outbound 2019
16 January 2020
Excerpts from II* findings on outbound travel from Latin America (LAm) and North America (NAm) over Jan-Aug.
  See Notes below, which include important caveats and qualifications.
-LAm -3% (II rounded). Number not given. Negatively affected by ‘high-volume’ Mexico (total not given, but our database shows almost 20mn arrivals in the US alone), -5%.
-NAm growth +4.5%. Number not given. Boosted by travel from the US (II uses the term ‘US-Americans’), +6%.
-All Americas growth +3.5%.
-Travel to Europe +7% (from the Americas). Travel to Spain +11%, Italy +10%. These two destinations are believed to have been listed because they were the fastest-growing; they are not the largest.
-Outbound travel within the Americas grew +3%. Trips to Asia also +3%.
-‘Holidays’ grew +5%; now 60% share. Business travel fall -1%; share not givenII do not make clear if it records other categories, such as VFR; no other categories are shown.
-The following categories are believed to be sub-categories under ‘holidays’ as above. City Breaks +10%, ‘Holidays in the Country’ +9%, Cruises +6%, ‘Round Trips’ +5%, ‘Sun & Beach’ -1%. 
-IPKI forecasts LAm outbound to grow +1% this year, NAm outbound +3%. Base (all 2019 or Jan-Aug) not clarified.
*Notes:
-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.
-A common fault with II reports concerns Mexico. II do not seem to be aware that Mexico is part of North America. They often include it in Latin America (correct, although LAm is not a geographical term and which II do not clearly define), but then comment separately on North America. Does II’s NAm include or exclude Mexico?
  We believe II exclude Mexico from North America, because they include it in LAm. (And sometimes in South America, which is wrong.)
-For ‘holiday travel’, we believe II mean non-business travel, sometimes known as ‘leisure travel’.
-In 2019, II introduced ‘roundtrips’ as a category in some reports. There has been no further definition although the term makes little sense, as presumably around 95% of trips are roundtrips.
-Also added are ‘Holidays in the Country’ (not clear if this is same as a previously-used category, ‘Countryside’, but definitions not known.
-In some reports, II have had a category ‘tour [sometimes ‘touring’] holidays’ (II have also never defined this, and as it is open to interpretation, we wonder how those questioned defined it).
-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

WTTC on medical tourism
19 November 2019
Excerpts from a WTTC* report on medical tourism:
[] US largest market for inbound and outbound spend.
[] US outbound spend, share 20%. US nationals spent US$2.3bn in 2017. Not clear how WTTC can separate-out non-citizens living in the US, and also add US nationals living in other countries.
[] Kuwait 2nd largest outbound spend US$1.5bn in 2015. Note 1, that year is different from US dates, 2, not specified whether Kuwait nationals only, or whether including the large number of foreigners living in Kuwait.
[] Nigeria 3rd largest outbound spend US$783mn in 2017, a 13.5% share of total outbound spend. Not the same category as for the US, which is share of total medical spend.
 [] 'Leading' (no other definition) emerging destinations for spend - Turkey, Thailand, Jordan, Costa Rica, Mexico. Reason for order not given.
[] Spend on international medical tourism US$11bn in 2017, up +358% since 2000. We calculate that as +9.4% AAGR (annual average growth rate).
[] Medical-spend share 1.2% of total visitor spend in 2017; 0.6% in 2000.
[] WTTC names Europe markets in the top-10 - Netherlands, France, Belgium, Austria, Germany. Again, reason for order not known. Spend in each of the five is put at US$300-678mn.
[] Inbound US spend US$4bn in 2017, a 36% share of medical tourism spend.
[] Following the US, largest inbound spend France US$800mn, Turkey US$763mn.
[] 'Emerging economies' for medical tourism noted were Thailand US$589 million 1.0% share of inbound visitor spend, Costa Rica US$451mn 12.1%, Mexico US$315mn 1.5%.
[] Inbound spend; five are European countries, with Belgium, the UK and Hungary joining France and Turkey, spending US$417-636mn.
*Notes: WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business.

Europe's domestic travel
26 September 2019
Eurostat (ES) has released domestic-travel data* for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from each market, they are not always comparable one to the other.
  We compare 2018 data with our database for 2017 to calculate progress.
  Unfortunately, the domestic market that is probably the EU's 4th biggest, the UK (after France, Germany, Spain), has been uncooperative with ES - even before its decision to leave the EU. Latest data for the UK is from 2013.
  Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):
-ES shows that France’s total fell -13%. We assume this is wrong, and that there has been a change in definitions.
-Because of that reported fall in France, there is a fall in the total markets already filed of -1.9%. Germany is a big enough market that its results will likely turn that into a small growth. We calculate Germany's growth in 2018 was +4-5%.
-Exclude France, and the total for the 18 grew +5.3%.
-Largest market reported so far is France; that reported -13.2% represents 26mn fewer travellers.
-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 50mn): Italy grew +20%. Spain, the EU’s 3rd-largest, grew only +1%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, ES had not answered our request for clarifications.

Europe's outbound travel
25 September 2019
Eurostat (ES) has released outbound-travel data* for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from the market, they are not always comparable one to the other. And they do not always identify special cases - such as heavy work related border crossings.
  To date, 19 of the 31 markets have reported their 2018 data to ES. We calculate that this represents 45% of the total. The big market missing is Germany, which alone has an 30% share of the total. Germany should report within the next month.
  Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):
-Growth on those markets already filed is +5.8%. Germany is a big enough market that its results could change that total growth. We calculate Germany's growth in 2018 was +0-2%.
-Largest market reported so far is France; its -7.4% represents 2mn fewer travellers.
-Of the others, falls were recorded only for France and Norway -0.9%.
-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 10mn): Italy grew +26%, Netherlands with 20.9mn is on track to become larger than France, 26.3mn, in 2020. Spain grew +15%.
-Among medium markets (5-10mn): Czech R +9%.
-Among smaller markets (under 5mn): Estonia +61.7%, Bulgaria +23.9%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Russia outbound
26 July 2019
Some findings on the Russia outbound market, by RMAA (Russian Marketing and Advertising Agency):
[] 69% of respondents buy air tickets online. Almost as widespread as the US, where it is 77%.
[] If a traveller watches a video about their trip before travelling, 65% watch YouTube, 24% an airline video, 20% Facebook, 12% OTA, and then others.
[] Among those who flew domestically, 43% did not use offline at all, 28% used offline and online.
[] Digital travellers made up their mind faster: 31% of them decided to buy a ticket within several hours.
[] 60% use PC or laptop, 8% smartphones.
[] 53% travel on vacation in couples, 28% travel alone, 8% in a group.
[] 51% decide on a trip within several days of travel (not enumerated, NE). 15% book tickets for travel after a few hours (NE) after booking a flight. 8% buy tickets several months (NE) before a departure.
[] For 70%, the cost of the ticket is a priority.
[] 30% are members of loyalty programs.
[] 40% go on vacation in Europe, 31% domestic.
[] 38% take a 2-week vacation, 36% one week.
[] 33% of travellers change their mind on which airline during the booking process, 56% book tickets of the company that they considered from the beginning, 39% choose different offers at the end of the process.
[] 32% buy tickets of only one airline.
[] 72% rely on their experience, 2% on advertising, 9% word-of-mouth, 10% online search.
[] Of those that are loyalty program members, 45% always fly one airline, 12% would look only at offers from one airline, 43% considered offers from other airlines but eventually booked the original one.
[] For those who are not members of a loyalty program, the shares were 25% 30% 44%.

More meetings counts
19 June 2019
ICCA* has issued more data on its report for 2018. We include some baseline data here, but brief because ICCA’s data is based on single-year counts.
  Our main analysis is based on multi-year results. We are motivated by those working in the MICE segment of the travel business – who tell us that single-year figures can be misleading. As a result, we calculate average-annual totals based on 5-year periods - to balance out distortions caused by unusually-big or -small events in one year.
  Surprisingly, the industry itself still works on annual figures! Even more surprising is that in 2013 ICCA said it was following our lead and tracking results in 5-year averages. Despite that, all its analysis and observations continues to be based on single-year figures!
  Our report on this topic is due to be included in the August issue of our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. This contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

  Some excerpts from ICCA’s single-year data:
-Barcelona counted most participants, although, as reported earlier, Paris counted most meetings. No3 in participants is Vienna, then Munich, Berlin. This highlights the problem with single-year counts; on a 5-year count, Munich would not only be below Berlin, but about No8 - see WYSK. Munich is No35 in meeting numbers. Two big medical conferences - 32,858 and 27,700 participants - made 2018 an exceptional year.
-The US remains in the top country, Spain overtakes Germany to become No2, then France, Canada.
-Main topics are Medical Science (share 16.9%), Technology (14.2%), Science (13.5%).
-Spend on international meetings was US$12.4bn (we calculate +3.8% from ICCA-rounded €11bn and +4%).
*Notes:
-ICCA’s counts are meetings of associations (and follow precise definitions), and thus are just one segment of the big MICE business. We have not seen estimates, but we would be surprised if ICCA’s segment was more than 20% of the total. Why do these counts attract so much interest? (Possibly, we answer ourselves, because no other worldwide trade body tracks the whole MICE business.)
-Until 2009, ICCA gave us additional information for our analysis, but has refused this since. Full data is reserved for ICCA members; a policy with which we agree, even if it causes us some difficulty. As a result, however, our coverage is now limited to meetings numbers, rather than adding commentary on attendance numbers as well.
-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.

ITB Berlin falling
13 March 2019
Key measures for last week’s ITB Berlin (ITBB) travel trade exhibition appear to show static or falling results.
  However, organisers Messe Berlin (MB) do not always report the same category of data every year, and some are rounded over a few years - 60,000 public visitors every year 2015 to 2018, and in some years before that.
  And the number of measures is falling. MB has published as many as 17 separate measures on ITBB; for 2019 it published five.
  But potentially of more concern for MB is an apparent denial that not all is going well. The following are some of MB’s public statements on ITBB 2019:
-‘Robust and resilient.
-‘International demand remains stable.
-‘Increase in trade visitors.
-‘Uninterrupted growth at a high level’.
  Apart from the trade-visitor count, we cannot see how MB can create such positive comment. The following are our calculations on MB data for this year, compared with our database for 2018 results:
-Zero growth in exhibitors - 10,000.
-Fall, -2.7%, in countries represented - 181.
-Fall, -5.9%, in total visitors - 160k.
-Growth, +3.2%, in trade visitors - 114k.
-Great fall, -22.5%, in public visitors - 45k.
  Note, however, that MB has not published this 45k (we calculated it), and it may be related to MB’s reporting of imprecise data in earlier years.
  In addition, this year there was a separate public travel show in Berlin at the same time - Berlin Travel Festival, March 8-10, Fri-Sun - although obviously BTF did not have the same volume of ITBB.
  Surprisingly, BTF was partly funded (‘supported’, which has no clear definition) by MB, although it certainly competes with the two public days of ITBB, Saturday and Sunday. We presume there will eventually be an adjustment - will ITBB be just three trade days, and the new show will take over from the last two days of ITBB, on the weekend?

Asean travel study
7 February 2019
Key findings from our calculation of visitor forecast to arrive in the 10 Asean destinations* this year. Although these are based on forecasts by the DMOs, the figures are substantially different from official Asean figures.
  We are unable to determine the reasons for this; Asean does not generally reply to queries and/or provide details of its broad positive presentations. Worse, if falls are forecast, the relevant figures are simply omitted.
  In travel, Asean is a ‘good news’ operation, and professional reporting takes second position. We are unqualified to comment on Asean’s main activities, built around politics and economics.
  We find it impossible to reconcile Asean reported data with our compilation of data from DMOs, partly because Asean issues no qualifications. We thus report both data, for better reader interpretation.
-Asean reports Asean+India 2018 visitor arrivals at 139.5mn +7.4%. Based on our estimates for 2018 (full figures are not yet available), we count 143.3mn +6.8% (Asean 132.7mn +6.9%, India 10.6mn +5.0%).
-Asean reports Asean+China+Japan+Korea 2018 visitor arrivals at 191.5mn - growth not reported. Our estimates show a giant difference - 330.1mn +6.2%. The problem is almost-certainly data on China visitors, and whether arrivals from Hong Kong and Macau are included. They are included in China’s official figures, and we have included them. Asean appears to exclude them because that would take about 100mn off our total - putting ours closer to Asean’s count. Asean provides no qualifications.
  The following is our calculation of the principal figures. We believe these are a better report on market realities than Asean’s data:
-Based on official statements by the 10 Asean DMOs forecast, there will be 150.1mn +13.1% visitors this year in their 10 destinations. However, this is unlikely to be achieved; 2018 growth was only an estimated +6.9% to 132.7mn, and 2017 +8.3% to 124.1mn.
-Growing Singapore’s total (by 40%) to better match over-counting by Malaysia and Thailand to balance their over-counting (by including land arrivals; see next) would result in an Asean total of 139.9mn +6.7% in 2018, with their forecast to grow to 157.5mn +12.6% this year.
-Reducing the totals for Malaysia (by 50%) and Thailand (by 10%), Asean’s total would be 116.1mn +7.9% in 2018, with their forecast to grow to 132.8mn +14.3% this year.
  We believe these figures are closest to reality. These also result in faster average annual growth - +8.0% over 2015, +9.0% over 2010. But that cumulative forecast for 2019 still looks too high, based on past performance - +14.3%.
*A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Trump Slump Bumped
17 September 2018
-there have been extraordinary changes in US visitor counts that turn a fall into growth.
The US has produced a new set of figures on visitor arrivals in the US. It reverses the Trump Slump into a Bump. But the new counts do not correct what may have been a fault; they deliberately miscategorise figures, which produces a Trump Bump.
  We are shocked, but we have seen no other reports that have analysed the changes.
  Here is the story:
  Earlier this year, many reports on visitor arrivals in the US were reporting a ‘Trump Slump’ - a fall in visitors prompted by the negative actions and words of the newish US president, Donald Trump. When he was not banning or trying to ban certain types or citizens from visiting the US, his words were unfriendly.
  Not only did his words ascertain that the US was on its way to becoming great again, but, almost concomitantly, non-Americans (=foreigners) were not so good, at best.
  In those circumstances, there should have been little surprise that the number of visitors would fall. Even if the banned nationals were tiny suppliers of visitors to the US (we guess some country-markets in the hundreds, and maybe 10,000 over a year), many others would, sensibly, have reconsidered a visit to the US.
  Would a France national, moslem, born in France of parents from Morocco, continue to assume a visit to the US would be trouble free?
  But a fall in visitors, of course, even if a likely outcome of specific actions, was not welcomed by the US administration. Its discourse was, and is, that everything is better for everyone in the US, and possibly better than since the beginning of time.
  This is not to say that we accuse the US government of helping the US administration to falsify facts. But its actions nevertheless raise suspicions.
  Last April, the US government said it was checking visitor-arrival counts because some visitors may have been miscategorised.
  The country’s DMO (NTTO, National Travel and Tourism Office) says some arrivals were incorrectly reported as showing US as the country of residence. The passport country for many (NTTO says ‘a large number’, but provides no further definition to enable others to define it thus) of the affected records was Brazil, China, India.
  This month, NTTO announced that the problem has now been fixed.
  But, we declare, it has not been corrected.
  The NTTO says any visitor-arrival that listed the US as the country of residence has now been changed to show the passport country as the country of residence. This is actually changing what may have been a mistake (obviously most arrivals with India passports were/are not residents of the US, even if some were recorded as US residents) to a clear mistake (assuming all those non-US-citizen visitor-arrivals were/are not resident in the US).
  This exercise has reversed the Trump Slump into a Trump Bump.
  In general terms, based on our notes above about the unwelcome sentiment in Trump’s US for ‘foreigners’, the visitor-arrival count now seems wrong. That said, we accept that few figures ‘seem’ right all the time; there are always surprises.
  The NTTO says the change (it says ‘corrective’ but as we have noted, these are not corrections, this is just re-categorisation) means the mistake (if that is what it was) in 2017 affected 3.7mn visitors in 2017 - almost a full Trump Year - yet only 540,000 visitors in non-Trump 2016.
  The other broad figures (more, with an accompanying table, in a WYSK report, what-you-should-know, from Travel Business Analyst):
-The new figures show there were 38.9mn +2.0% overseas visitors in 2017. The old figures were 35.2mn -6.2%.
-For total visitors (ie including Canada, Mexico), new 76.9mn +0.7%, old 73.3mn -3.1%.
-There were no changes for visitors from Canada, Mexico in 2017, but changes in 2016 and 2015. Although the changes in those earlier years were small, why were those 2017 figures ‘corrected’ before the ‘mistake’ in the categorisation was discovered? Even though the Canada and Mexico visitor-arrival counts are so big (almost 40mn in 2017), no visitor was mis-categorised?
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

We Were Right; Singapore Airlines Group
18 May 2018
With the news that Silk Air is being merged into Singapore Airlines, the businessplan we outlined for SAG (Singapore Airlines Group) is almost complete.
  We synopsised our points in a November 2013 report following a meeting with a senior SAG executive. Some of these points we had noted before, and of course later. The three elements were:
1. Scoot should not have been established. SAG’s first NFA* Tiger should have been expanded instead. SAG did not own a majority in Tiger at that time, and so we suggested SAG should simply buy a bigger share.
  Three years later this all started to happen. SAG increased its shareholding in Tiger. Then the two airlines Scoot and Tiger were put under a single management control, then Tiger was merged into Scoot.
  Essentially then, this is what we suggested – just one (NFA) airline.
2. Similarly there has been no need (for the past 15 years at least) to have two FSAs*. The inanity of this was illustrated in that there were some routes on which both SIA and Silk were flying. Duh!
  There are nuances to our argument, of course, which make this not quite so blatantly stupid, but it was still was poor business management.
  Now, following this announcement, what we proposed is happening – just one (FSA) airline.
3. However, there was an element in our proposed businessplan for SAG that has not been implemented, and which in some ways makes the SIA/Silk merger the wrong move.
  We proposed that Silk become SAG’s LCA*. As an LCA, Silk’s routes could be new ones for SAG – where it is usually better to start with a lower-cost operation until the financial viability for SIA to operate such a route is clearer. Or a Silk LCA could operate additional frequencies on routes operated by SIA – again, which might not be profitable for SIA to expand.
  Perhaps SAG management believes Scoot will fill that market need – develop new routes. But as management knows, and says, Scoot serves a different market segment.
  Under this new arrangement for SIA/Silk, the full-service market segment is not properly served (because any extra demand from the FSA market will be fulfilled by non-SAG FSAs). That, or higher-costs SIA will add flights to fulfil this extra demand, and lose money, at least initially.
  Also, that would mean SAG’s market share would steadily fall – or at least not grow at the rate it could.
  Will SAG management understand this?
  The chances do not look good – back in 2013 they laughed (literally, but at the proposal, not the deliverer) at our three proposals – two of which they have now carried out.
*Notes: Our airline-type definitions:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs - cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for example), fewer fare types, may have first and business cabins as well as economy, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. If relevant, usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: shorthaul point-to-point routes; market freedom in terms of fares, routes; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; extremely-low fares when bought at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no (free) service frills; single economy-class cabin; no (free) seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

Misleading WTTC reports
23 March 2018
WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has published a series of comprehensive reports* for selected markets – some measures comparable, some not.
  Unfortunately, the group is so careless in its presentations that the professional observer is sometimes left to guess what WTTC’s research shows. We believe its presentations are in contrast with the professionalism of its research.
  As a result, the following is our (abridged) list of WTTC’s findings, with comments where necessary.
  (Note: WTTC mainly uses the awkward term ‘travel and tourism’*, which we change to the more-practical ‘travel business’*, abbreviated here to TB. Data for 2017, unless noted otherwise.)
[] World.
-TB turnover +4.6%. Visitor spend +4.3%. GDP growth a WTTC-rounded +3%.
[] North Africa.
-TB turnover (overall GDP, TB’s share of GDP): +22.6%; Egypt US$21.1bn +72.9% (+4.1%, 11.0%); Tunisia US$5.7bn +7.6% (WTTC-rounded +2%, 14.2%); Turkey US$98.4bn WTTC-rounded +17% (+7.0%, 11.6%). Note Turkey is part in Europe, part in Asia (Minor), which is sometimes a reason for including it in the Middle East. Including it in North Africa is incorrect.
-‘...well on track to return to pre-crisis levels’. Without a date, this is meaningless commentary; it was on that track the moment the TB stopped falling.
[] Australia.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$156bn/A$197.5bn +2.3% (+2.2%).
[] Canada.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$108bn/C$138.8bn +4.5% (a WTTC-rounded +3%). In a separate report, WTTC puts growth as +5.5%.
[] China.
-TB turnover +9.8%.
[] France.
-TB 50% faster than world average. Wrong? The same report showed that this was a comparison with the visitor business, not the overall TB.
-Visitors to France spent US$54.7bn (at US$1 to €0.81) +6.4%.
-TB turnover US$252.2bn, an 8.9% share.
[] Germany.
-TB turnover US$429.8bn +1.7%.
[] India.
-Forecast to overtake Germany as #3 by 2028.
[] Indonesia.
-TB turnover US$57bn/Rph787.1tn +6.4%; overall GDP +5.1%.
-Forecast +6.4% annual average growth rate 2018-27.
[] Italy.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$275.6bn +2.7%, a WTTC-rounded 13% share (+1.6%).
-Visitor spend US$48.9bn +6.5%.
[] Japan.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$350bn/¥37.1tn +3.4% (+1.6%).
-Forecasts 40mn visitors in 2020. Not clear if this is a WTTC forecast or a restatement of Japan’s government’s target.
[] Saudi Arabia.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$64bn/R240.9bn +4.6% (a WTTC-rounded +1%), a 9.4% share of GDP.
[] Spain.
-TB turnover a WTTC-rounded +7%.
[] UK.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$297bn/a-WTTC-rounded-£214bn +6.2% (+1.5%).
-Visitors +6.7%, outbound travellers +2.5% (+7.8% 2016, +9.9% 2015), domestic travellers +5.8%, spend by visitors to UK +7.9%, spend by domestic travellers +5.8%.
[] US.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$1.5tn +2.3% world’s largest (same, +2.3%).
*Notes:
-WTTC has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure will be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business.
  Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
  WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers - just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-Most US$ figures are our conversions from WTTC figures.
-A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTTC Research Director Rochelle Turner responds:
The methodology that WTTC uses aligns to the UN a statistical Methodology for accounting for Travel & Tourism (TSA RMF: 2008).  
The definition of the sector from the TSA RMF:2008 is as follows: ‘the activity of persons travelling to and staying in places outside of their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not remunerated from within the place visited’. 
Our approach has been independently audited and is fully available for view on our website, www.wttc.org. All country regions are fully explained on the final pages within each country report. 

Easy v Ryan v Southwest v Norwegian v Air Asia
22 December 2017
On the occasion of the departure of Easyjet CEO, Carolyn McCall, and prompted by some comments by the airline on her performance over her seven years at the airline, we check the results at Easy and some other competing airlines. These indicate that Easy’s claims for McCall are not justified*.
  According to our database, Easy’s seat sales have shown a +7.0% average annual growth rate since she joined. That looks weak alongside some key competitors – +8.2% AAGR at arch-rival Ryanair, the world’s biggest NFA (no-frills-airline), +14.5% at (relative) newcomer Norwegian, although only +5.9% at US-based Southwest, overtaken two months ago as the world’s biggest NFA, and +15.9% at Air Asia, that region’s biggest NFA. Air Berlin, which has now shut down, was negative, -1.6%.
  The same pattern for Easy’s share price. At current prices, Easy’s share AAGR over end-2010 was +18.3%, Ryan +24.6%, Southwest +24.4%. Only two years for Norwegian, but -25.2%. Also negative for Air Asia, -2.0% over the seven years. Air Berlin was not a quoted airline.
  We calculate Easy’s seat sales have grown +49.7% since 2010, although Ryan has grown +60.6%, Norwegian +124.9%, Air Asia +109.3%, but Southwest +40.9%.
*A report on this topic in our People-in-Travel (PinT) monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Ryanair tops
8 December 2017
It happened in September and was confirmed in October. According to our counts, Ryanair has overtaken Southwest to become the world's biggest no-frills-airline.
  Seat sales Jan-Oct were 11.0mn on Ryan compared with 10.8mn on Southwest.

Asean@50; unhappy birthday?
23 January 2017
The reclusive Asean travel secretariat (ATS) has reiterated its 2017 visitor target for the 10 Asean destinations at 121mn. Yet the figures it has published indicate that it expects slower growth in this celebratory year than in the ‘normal’ year 2016.
  We’ll explain:
  The forecast is related to what is named ‘Asean@50’ (A50). This is a so-called (non-funded) promotional campaign this year to encourage greater visitation into the 10 Asean destinations – to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the formation of the Asean political association.
  We believe few travellers are motivated by political birthdays. In 2015, the visitor element of Singapore’s 50th-year independence/foundation celebrations was a flop. Arrivals growth that year was just 1%; something which no-one now mentions. Ironically, A50 was officially launched in Singapore, indicating that nothing has been learned from Singapore’s birthday failure.
  One year ago, ATS released data that would mean visitor totals for the 10 destinations in 2015 totalled 92.3mn. Since then, ATS has changed that total to 109mn and now to 108mn.
  We estimate that there was strong growth in visitors in 2016 – probably 8.5%, even though that was below the 12.8% forecast that we calculated after adding up DMO forecasts at the start of 2016.
  That +8.5% would put the 2016 Asean visitor total at 117mn – based on ATS’s restated 2015 total of 108mn. From there to the targetted 121mn this year would mean 3.2% growth this year. We have seen no commentary that this means, in effect, that ATS forecasts slower growth this A50 year than in 2016, a ‘normal’ year.
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis.

We Were Right!
11 November 2016
We have had a good couple-of-months - in vindication.
1. Frequently, since 2007, we have been saying that the Air Berlin businessmodel was wrong, suggesting simplification. In September 2016, the airline announced it was downsizing (about 40%), moving some of its leisure operations into a new company, and more, to change what it called its “complicated business model”. (There is still more to do, however.)
2. In 2015 we formalised our 7-year-old strategy for bigger airline groups. One section proposed expanding Hop, an Air France subsidiary, into a low-cost subsidiary to operate certain flights (short medium long) instead of AF and its associate KLM. In November 2016, the AF-KLM group said it planned to establish a low-cost subsidiary in 2017 to operate certain Asia and Atlantic flights instead of the two.
3. In April 2016 we said the reported plan by Alitalia to buy 49% of Air Malta would not happen. In October 2016, it was announced that the sale would not take place.
4. When Scoot was established in 2011 we said it should not have been, and Tiger expanded instead. This plan was dismissed by the owner of both, the Singapore Airlines group (SAG), end-2013. In November 2016, SAG said Tiger would operate under Scoot’s name starting 2017.
  For those interested in more:
-What full-service-airlines need to do to survive. See 
https://medium.com/@tbaoffice/airline-strategy-185fa3ef7d0c#.octgrysmf
-We’ve been reporting Air Berlin’s problems since 2006. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jJ
-AirFrance-KLM new subsidiary; we thought of it first. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jW
-Scoot = Tiger. We thought of it first. See http://wp.me/pTv9-k0
-How to save Air Malta and others. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jB 
-Alitalia to buy into Air Malta? See http://wp.me/pTv9-it
-Analysing Alitalia’s 2015 results. See http://wp.me/pTv9-in

Air Berlin surprise
5 October 2016
Why did it take so long to see the problems? We’ve been reporting them since 2006. PAGPFT. On http://wp.me/pTv9-jJ

Asean’s Faultlines.
13 June 2016
Asean’s Faultlines, by Murray Bailey
3500-word critique entitled Asean’s Faultlines – includes a section What To Do. On https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/aseans-faultlines-by-murray-bailey/

Shouting some shocks: Virgin, Fly Be, Wizz, Air Berlin.
20 May 2016
Virgin on trouble
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
  Figures we have seen on Virgin Atlantic (the airline does not publish them) indicate all is not going well. OK, they are bad.
  For all-year 2015 we have a 3% fall in seat sales to 5.8mn following a particularly-bad December - -14%.
  But this year has started worse. We have Q1 seat sales at -7%. The 1.1mn total that represents compares with 1.2mn sold in 2015, and the peak of 1.3mn in 2014 - which was a 4% growth on 2013.
  We are not saying VA is not long for this world. (That’s an improvement as we said they would collapse within two years after they were established - 30 years ago.)
  But will owners Branson and Delta clash? Branson was able to deal easily with his previous supporter, Singapore Airlines, but Delta may be harder to fool.
Fly Be, or not-to-be?
But if you are looking for doom in the UK, then look at Fly Be. True, its seat sales were +1% in Q1 (ie better than VA’s -7%), but its seat factor was a disastrous 66%. We reckon the airline needs at least 14pts more than that.
  We propose that FB management (that’s Fly Be, not Mr Zuckerberg) campaign strongly for Brexit. If the UK makes the wrong decision and quits the EU, FB can take over some of the many UK-EU routes that Ryanair will likely be forced to abandon.
Wizzing ahead
Ready for another? Wizz - Hungary-based but think East Europe - is on track to overtake (sorry, wiz past) Air Berlin in 2017.
  Poor Air Berlin. It is tumbling faster - -7% YTD, -8% latest month. And that change would follow on from the ignominy of being overtaken this Q1 by Nano-Norway’s Norwegian.

Analysing Alitalia’s 2015 results
6 May 2016
Alitalia’s heading: ‘On track for profitability by 2017; reports strong 2015 performance.’
Ours: ‘Alitalia revenue and traffic fall again; will it achieve its target for profits in 2017?’
2015 seemed to be another year of operational weakening at Alitalia. ‘Seemed’ because the company does not publish all the data every year.
  We normally look at seat sales, and when we look at finance, at revenue and operating profit (not net, which can be more easily manipulated). So:
-Alitalia’s peak year for seat sales (including Air One) seems to have been 2007, with 31.5mn.
-The company does not reveal growth in 2015 (and did not report 2014 data) – just the figure. That was 22.1mn, thus a shocking 29.9% fall against 2007 – an average annual 4.3% fall.
-Revenue. We have US$3.99bn (at US$1 to €0.90) for 2012 – no full-year since then. In 2015 US$3.68bn -7.8%, an average annual 2.7% fall.
-Operating profit. No data.
-From our file data, Alitalia’s revenue in 2012 calculates to US$165 per seat sold. In 2015 it was better, US$167, a 1.2% growth, so 0.4% average annual growth.
-Other. It provides other data, but without comparative information, most are essentially worthless. Such as US$262mn from ‘codeshare revenue’. Of course Alitalia indicates that this is good, but with no comparative or other data, how can we know? Its load factor (not further defined, but we have assumed RTK over ATK, not RPK over ASK) looks worryingly low, at 76.2%. We would have thought it needs at least 10-points higher. That said, it is actually an improvement on the latest data we have, for 2006, of 65.7%!

wow – ow – ouch – oh
9 March 2016
China’s airlines – wow
Although it was a Lunar New Year month (compared with non-LNY in 2015), growth in seat sales for China’s big-3 is impressive nevertheless.
  In January on international routes (by size), China Southern was +29%, Air China +43% (!), China Eastern +30%.
  (Numbers: 1.14mn 1.10mn 0.88mn.)
Macau - ow
We follow Macau’s RCT (Rolling Chip Turnover; can be considered as money spent on gambling).
  We have just seen the 2015 results for IKGH, a company operating certain high-rollers rooms in four casinos in Macau.
  Its RCT in 2015 fell an enormous 61%, and it is not getting much better – Q4 RCT was down 57% and Jan-Feb this year -44%. (Dollar amounts are not relevant in this report – but for those interested, the figures were US$6.4bn in 2015, and US$1.2bn in Q4.)
  If those results are an indicator for all-Macau, will Las Vegas take back its title as the world’s biggest gambling centre?
Malaysia Airlines – ouch
I estimate that Malaysia Airlines’ international seat sales fell even further in 2015, possibly to under 10mn. Was it only two years earlier in 2013 that its count soared passed that 10mn with 30% growth?
  Unsurprisingly, traffic fell in 2014 after it lost two aircraft, but it is surprising that monthly traffic is still falling.
  We thought there would be a Dead Cat Bounce for the last three months of 2015. Not only did that not happen, by a long way, but also the fall seems to have been greater – down around 25% in Q4.
  Of course, these falls are not entirely the result of those two 2014 tragedies. There is still hard competition from the Air Asia group (although AA is not doing as well as it was). And Malaysia’s current governmental turmoil and currency fall may be slowing traffic in and out of the country – possibly more business- than leisure-travel.
  Also, we think MA should have changed its name last year (it did, but from its formal abbreviation MAS to MAB; most did not notice). At least to Air Malaysia.
  Those aforementioned political spats may be reducing the pressure on MA to explain and reverse its continued fall. But expect political demands for a return to better times to happen soon – however unrealistic. In the next 4-6 months?
Virgin Australia – oh
It was not supposed to be like this.
  When Virgin Australia launched, it started fortuitously - its big would-be rival, Ansett, shut down the following year, in 2001. It continued to go well until, encouraged by an adoring crowd, it started international flights. Some are still there, but international expansion was not as easy as it seemed to think.
  Then Qantas launched Jetstar in Australia, and VA felt the competition heat more warmly. Worse, Singapore Airlines (which actually got burned badly in the Ansett collapse – but let’s not bring that up again) cheekily started a Tiger Air division in Australia.
  That went sort-of reasonably, until the authorities shut it down temporarily in 2011 for safety reasons. 18 months later Singapore Airlines – which left the impression it did not know what it was doing with Tiger, in Australia and Asia – sold the Australia company to VA.
  VA smugly said it was pleased to get back into the no-frills-airline business. Smug because its original businessplan was for a no-frills-airline (even though that did not fit the overall Virgin strategy). When Ansett collapsed, Virgin steadily ditched the NFA model.
  So here we are with 2015 results – our counts from Virgin data, because it has a different financial year.
  Seat sales down for Virgin international and down for Virgin domestic Australia. Ironically, only Tiger grew, and that because it can be considered a newish airline that had lost its direction, and is now under more-determined direction.
  VA’s total count is down. If this continues, watch for another change in direction soon – from CEO change to change in strategy on domestic, international and Tiger. Will Tiger’s name go?
  (Numbers: domestic -3%, international -2%, Tiger +9%; overall -1%.)

Euromonitor Puerilities
7 December 2015
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.
Research company Euromonitor (EM) has listed what it calls “top emerging travel trends” (a misnomer) in the WTM Global Trends Report. We have criticised some EM reports and statements before, including its now-14-years of work for the GTR. But this latest list of blathers we find an insult to travel industry professionals in that most have little or no meaning:
  EM’s TETTs are:
The new American dream: work less, play hard.
“A growing number of American companies offer unlimited vacation time to create a happier, loyal and motivated staff, which will have an effect on travel bookings.”
We know of no company (in the US or anywhere) that pays staff and allows them not to do any work. But we do accept that such employees would likely spend some of their money and great amount of free time on travel.
Smart technology drives travel to UK’s secondary cities.
“Digitalisation and hi-tech solutions are redefining the tourist offerings of UK urban centres to boost travel outside of London, currently the jewel in the crown of UK tourism.”
Smart technology is also driving travel to London, and everywhere. But what, we wonder, does ‘digitalisation and hi-tech’ do, in this case, for such travel that it does not do for others?
‘Hipster Holidays’ revolutionise European city break.
“Young and hip travellers’ interest in alternative city areas opens new business opportunities and helps diversifying urban attractions in European cities struggling with excessive tourism.”
We tried to understand this, but failed. And we wonder which cities are struggling, and what, indeed, is ‘excessive tourism’.
Travel 3.0: the advent of smart travel.
“Smart technology is transforming the tourism industry with personalised services to create enjoyable experiences suited to a traveller’s individual preferences.”
Well, yes, but is this an ‘emerging trend’? We would think personalisation has been around for at least five if not 10 years. And in some cases, much longer; such as Thomas Cooks’ trips from the UK to the French Riviera in the 1850s.
Iran: the next travel hotspot.
“The recent sanction lift sparked a scramble to open Iran to international visitors, attracted by its ancient Persian history, 17 World Heritage Sites, as well as natural attractions.”
Well, visitor growth was 4% in 2014, but that was before an agreement on sanctions (and, EM, should know, they have not been lifted, but some may be lifted.) On a 5mn total, small numerical increases could produce big percentage growth – but all this hardly deserves such puerile descriptions as ‘hotspot’ and ‘scramble’. We would be surprised if the 2015 total reaches as much as 6mn.
We also wonder if EM wants us to note that there is a difference for potential travellers between Iran’s ‘ancient Persian history’ and its ‘Persian history’. We are not qualified to make any comment on any difference.
Technology start-ups changing the face of Africa.
“With technology start-ups flourishing across the continent, Africa is entering a new era of innovation, which will help change the perception to international tourists.”
Although this ‘changing the face’ is a super-exaggeration, does the creation of start-ups – anywhere - motivate travellers?
Luxury hotels keeping in with the crowd.
“Luxury hotels are turning to crowdsourcing and crowdfunding to get their properties financed, rather than relying on traditional sources of investment.”
Please EM, put this into perspective. Under-1% of funding of the under-5% of hotels in the luxury category?
The sharing economy heads to China.
“After a shaky start, the sharing economy is taking off in China, with the rise of new local players in 2014, a trend boosted by the number of Chinese millennials.”
Finally, something we can agree with! But hardly news. And, of course, the sharing economy is taking off in most places, with or without the help from millennials.
Travel for the Indian unbanked.
“Travel firms are adopting ‘cash-on-delivery’ payments to cater to the half a billion Indians without a bank account.”
Yes again, but this is not a new phenomenon.

end

 

 


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What-You-Should-Know, Asia Pacific: Asia Pacific visitor forecasts. Airline financial results compared, Travel Stocks Indices, Travel stocks, Airlines in Asia Pacific. Plus: Market Monitor; ZERO; Market Headlines; People-in-Travel; Net Value; and 10 regular tables of market data.

What-You-Should-Know, Europe: WTTC wrong counts. IATA outlooks. Plus: Market Monitor; ZERO; People-in-Travel; Net Value; Market Headlines; and 10 regular tables of market data.

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