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Reports on many of these topics are also published in our W.Y.S.K-What-You-Should-Know (Asia Pacific and Europe), Net Value (NV), People-in-Travel (PinT), ZERO (the travel business and the environment) monthly-reports. Also in blogs (Foxtrots, Trottings), and social and business media (Facebook, Linked In). These usually include some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
https://www.facebook.com/travelbusinessanalyst
https://www.facebook.com/peopleintravel
https://www.facebook.com/technologyintravel
http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/travel-business
http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/trottings

Selected market indicators, latest
7 May 2021
On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Feb: AsPac -67.4%, Europe -64.1%, North America -80.1%, world -71.2%. IATA/TBA-estimates.
[] Frankfurt airport passengers YT-Mar: -77.6%.
[] Ryanair seat sales YT-Mar -91.5%.
[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, YT-Mar -90.2%.
[] Spain visitor arrivals YT-Dec -77.3%.
[] US travel agency US$ sales YT-Mar -67.6%. ARC.
[] US visitor arrivals, overseas YT-Mar -83.9%.
[] Visitor arrivals, world Jan: AsPac -95.9%, Europe -85.1%, North America -71.3%, world -86.7%. WTO.

Travel business updates
6 May 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-1 May occupancy 57.1%, average room rate US$108.80
-24 April 57.3% US$108.10
-17 April 57.3% US$107.16
-10 April 59.7% US$112.22 
-3 April 57.9% US$112.76 
End-month 7-day periods:
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] Radar Box reports that China’s 7-day daily average domestic flights totalled 12,612 in the last week of April. In the same week 2020, 4939 flights; 2019, 9949.
[] STR* reports US hotel revenue per available room in March was US$86.61, which it reports as 50% of 2019. Comparison with 2020 not given.
*Notes: STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

Travel business updates
5 May 2021
[] IATA* reports air traffic for March (comparisons with same period in 2019, not 2020):
-Worldwide RPKs -67.2%, ASKs -56.8%, load factor 62.3% -19.7pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -60.4%, Europe -81.7%, North America -57.2%.
-International RPKs -87.8% - Asia Pacific -94.8%, Europe -88.3%, North America -80.9%.
-Domestic RPKs -32.3% - Australia -45.8%, Brazil -54.0%, China -2.6%, India -32.4%, Japan -58.3%, Russia +8.5%, US -43.9%.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -68.6%. 2. -80.7%. 3. -86.2%. 4. -54.4%. 5. -71.2%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-May 2. 1. -45.6%. 2. -62.9%. 3. -76.0%. 4. -19.4%. 5. -52.0%.
-April 25. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-April 18. 1. -47.3%. 2. -65.5%. 3. -77.7%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -52.6%.
-April 11. 1. -47.6%. 2. -65.6%. 3. -79.4%. 4. -22.8%. 5. -53.0%.
-April 4. 1. -52.9%. 2. -68.6%. 3. -81.0%. 4. -29.8%. 5. -59.1%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
4 May 2021
[] Cotri* reports Q1* China outbound travel was 2mn, with 1.6mn to Macau, and around 10k arrivals* each to Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore.
*Notes:
-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.
-Fall not given. It reported the same, 2mn, for Q4.
-Our database shows: Hong Kong counted 11.6k -99.6% arrivals from China in Q1 - an ‘arrival’ is not the same number as a ‘departure’. That represented 70.1% of arrivals in Hong Kong, whose total fell -99.5% in Q1; Macau 1.57mn -31.7% 90.0% -46.0%.
[] TBA-Tracking. Our Worldwide Index on travel companies’ stock prices in April was 221. End-2020 187. Pre-covid/End-2019 233. The ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006.

TBA Tracking: April travel stocks - hesitant growth
3 May 2021
Commentary (category numbers below):
-Hesitant growth - just +1%. Airlines actually fell, and by a sizeable -4%. World growth held back by AsPac - the whole region was -2%, and their airlines -6%. Even China, -8%!
-Perhaps these moves are a reflection of covid-news - which is very good, encouraging, or disastrous, depending on the market.
-This month we add a new category, big travel groups. See below.
-Don’t look for logic - travel-tech prices -4% for the month, but +20% against pre-covid levels.
-Only two of our eight travel-tech stocks have not recovered their pre-covid prices - Lastminute and ‘blue-chip’ Amadeus.
-All our airline giants fell (except ICAG in London). No-frillers were better; only troubled Air Asia fell (that’s excluding no-hoper Norwegian).
-AirBnB, which we list in both hotels and travel-tech, fell a clunky -8%.
-Good covid news in the US probably help our Las Vegas hoteliers grow as well as two strong US-market-heavy cruisers Carnival and RCC.
-Thai Airways, hurting badly from a covid-closed Thailand, crashed -51%.
-Air France-KLM fell a big -9%, even as its Paris market grew +3%. As the (AF) airline is getting a (France) government US$5bn payout, why the fall?
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern -8%, Delta -3%, ICAG +2/-1% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -5%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia -11%, Easyjet +6%, Norwegian -15%, Ryanair +2%, Southwest +3%, Spring China +8%, Wizz +2%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor +4%, AirBnB -8%, InterContinental +4%, Marriott +0.3%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +10%, Shangri-La -5%.
-Big travel groups. China United +22%, Flight Centre -7%, TUI +14/17% (Frankfurt/London).
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +7%, Sands +1%, Wynn +2%.
-Planemakers. Airbus +4%, Boeing -8%, Embraer +10%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +5%, Fraport +6%, Guangzhou -9%.
-Cruisers. Carnival +5%, RCC +2%, Star -5%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirBnB -8%, Amadeus -6%, Booking +6%, Expedia +2%, Trip -1%.
-No-hopers. Hertz +31% (but note US$2 compared with US$22 peak), Jet India +0.3%, Norwegian -15%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +1%, Hong Kong +1%, London +4%, Tokyo -1%, US (average of our four +4%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks).Compared with previous month: +1%. Compared with end-2019: -13%.
-World. Airlines -4%, Hotels +3%, Others +2%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -17%, Hotels -4%, Others -14%.
-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific -2%, Europe +2%, US +1%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -13%, Europe -25%, US +3%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China. Compared with previous month: Airlines -6%, Hotels +2%, Others -3%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -4%, Hotels -6%, Others -28%.
-China -8%; compared with end-2019, +8%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -2%; compared with end-2019, +9%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels +5%, Others +5%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -36%, Hotels -13%, Others -27%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels +2%, Others +3%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -10%, Hotels +6%, Others +14%.
-Rest-of world. Compared with previous month: +5%. Compared with end-2019: -37%.
-Travel-tech -4%. Compared with end-2019: +20%.
-Stockmarkets +2%. Compared with end-2019: +17%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 221, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 173, US 438. Index previous month: World 213, Asia Pacific 54, Europe 171, US 414. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 106. Index previous month 106. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 164. Index previous month 166. Index end-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

WTTC: gaffs galore
30 April 2021
Commentary from Travel Business Analyst:
Earlier this month, WTTC* held its annual conference in Mexico. Its gaffs are even more stunning given that it sets itself as the professional representation of the travel business.
  The travel business could learn from a rock concert in Barcelona, see below, and not WTTC’s meeting in Mexico. 
  Here are three WTTC statements about its event:
1. ‘..regular testing was made available’. That means testing was not mandatory. Even we know a negative-result person can infect others. That makes WTTC’s event potentially a super-spreader event.
2. ‘..complying with strict world-class health and hygiene protocols’. We have seen event coverage showing non-masked delegates (the majority?) at the event. That is not healthy, let along ‘world-class’ healthy - albeit that ‘world-class’ is a PR-word that has no practical meaning.
3. ‘..by observing the latest health and safety protocols’. Are there no editors at WTTC? The ‘latest (etc)’ in this sense does not exist. Firstly, because there are no worldwide protocols, so that means country-wide or even state-wide protocols. Secondly, we would guess that at least 100 new protocols came out in all administrations during the WTTC event. Thus WTTC did not comply with all those.
  Apply these shortcomings to the travel business overall, and it seems clear that ‘best practices’ are unlikely to happen.
  Shamefully, WTTC’s event happened after another non-travel event that set standards for travelling again - a test that WTTC failed:
-On March 28 a rock concert was held in Barcelona, with 5000 attendees. All were antigen-tested on site at the event, and all had to wear FFP2 masks throughout the event.
-Also, toilet capacity was reduced. We are puzzled by that. If attendees were allowed to jump up and down to the music, why was it more risky to jump up and down waiting to use the toilet?
-Six people tested covid-positive 15 days after the event, but it is believed in at least four of those cases, transmission did not take place during the concert.
*Notes: WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.

US travel business updates
29 April 2021
[] PCW* reports on US travellers:
-89% belong to a travel loyalty program.
-Pre-covid, 56% took more than two leisure trips. Of loyalty members 59% did.
*Notes: PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-24 April occupancy 57.3%, average room rate US$108.10.
-17 April 57.3% US$107.16
-10 April 59.7% US$112.22 
-3 April 57.9% US$112.76 
-27 March 57.9% US$108.31 
End-month 7-day periods:
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
-October 44.4% (-29.0%) US$91.56 (-27.4%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -69.5%. 2. -81.3%. 3. -86.6%. 4. -55.7%. 5. -72.0%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-April 25. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-April 18. 1. -47.3%. 2. -65.5%. 3. -77.7%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -52.6%.
-April 11. 1. -47.6%. 2. -65.6%. 3. -79.4%. 4. -22.8%. 5. -53.0%.
-April 4. 1. -52.9%. 2. -68.6%. 3. -81.0%. 4. -29.8%. 5. -59.1%.
-March 28. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-October. 1. -66.1%. 2. -79.2%. 3. -84.8%. 4. -49.6%. 5. -67.6%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
 
Travel business updates
28 April 2021
[] US inbound and outbound.
The US is reporting traveller data more quickly this year.
-Inbound.
  Q1 overseas arrivals (excluding contiguous Canada, Mexico) fell -83.9%. That’s good considering Jan-Feb 20 (start of the covid falls for the US) fell only -3.8%. And Mar 21 was only -56.3%, compared with Mar 20 -69.9%.
  Q1 arrivals from Canada not available, but Mexico Q1 was -0.6% thanks to +155.0% in March.
  (For Jan-Feb, Canada was -95.1%. Arrivals in Jan-Feb 20 grew; it was from March that the covid-fall started.)
-Outbound. Data released slower than for inbound.
  All-2020 just published. ‘Only’ -66.4%, partly because the 2020 fall did not start until March; Jan-Feb 20 was +4.9%. But the overseas fall was greater, -78.0%; North America -56.9%.
  2021 data only for January, and potentially misleading because, as noted above, the 2020 fall did not start until March. Total -66%, overseas -80%, NAm -55%.
[] GD* reports on longhaul travel:
-36% of respondents ‘would consider an international trip to a different continent’ in the next 12 months.
-28% would consider an international trip within their continent in the next 12 months.
*Notes: GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.

Travel business updates
27 April 2021
[] Q1 seat sales at Singapore Airlines not good - -96.3% for the group, and a fraction better at the core airline, -95.1%.
[] Southwest average fare Q1 was US$120.36 -22.5%.
[] PCW* reports on marketing at AirBnB (ABB) and Booking (BK):
-ABB signed 14mn new ‘active bookers’ Jan-Sep 20.
-Of ABB 2019 revenue, 69% was repeat-booker.
-Of ABB Q4 traffic, 90% was direct or unpaid. BK’s, ‘during the pandemic’, was 50%.
-SEMRush estimates BK search-engine marketing-spending for US market was US$5.1mn April 1-18, for ABB US$1.2mn.
-iSpot estimates ABB worldwide TV campaign started in March would have cost US$9mn in its first week,
*Notes: PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
[] Skift reports Expedia will ‘automatically’ add 25mn customers to its loyalty program; period not given.
[] OTA TravelGo forecast 250mn domestic trips in China over China’s April 30-May 5 holiday break. It reports 2020 was 115mn, and 2019 195mn. No commentary on why 2021 would be +28% on pre-covid 2019.
  Another OTA, the China-based Trip Group, earlier forecast 200mn ‘tourists’ for the holiday. Change not given.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
26 April 2021
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 166 in March. Index previous month 158. Index end-2019 157.
  Comments:
-Another mixed month. This may become standard over the next 2/3 months as the world begins to come out of the covid-caused travel drop. We can foresee a burst here, fallback there, reflecting travel/covid realities. And sometimes localised, which may sometimes be hidden in prices, sometimes not. Why, for instance, has Trip not done better? It is based in China - where covid-recovery started to happen months ago - but it is quoted in the US, where covid-recovery movement started only last month.
-(Trip opened a listing in Hong Kong last month. We will start to include that in our tracking from end-month.)
-In March, three of our nine stocks were down, two more-or-less flat, leaving four to grow. That is almost a perfect match of February.
-Newly-listed AirBnB had the fastest growth January, the biggest falls in February and March. Welcome to the roller-coaster.
-Lastminute showed impressive +37% growth in the month, after +19% in February. But it is still the furthest from getting back to its pre-covid price (=end-2019), -18%.
-(We also note comparison with end-2019. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)
-Six (of eight; AirBnB was not listed end-2019) are comfortably ahead of their pre-covid prices. Only Amadeus (surprise) and Lastminute are still below but seem on track to get back on track in the next two months.
-Some deserve special note. Expedia was the first travel-tech to recover from covid, end-2020, and it is now +59% ahead of its pre-covid price. But two others have boomed-back this year - Trip Advisor +77%, Trivago +64%!
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-21


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Mar 21

Feb 21

Dec 20

Dec 19

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

AirBnB

188

206

147

na

na

-8.9

0.4

130

78

Amadeus

60.4

57.5

59.6

72.8

40.7

5.0

4.2

182

110

Booking╪

2330

2329

2227

2054

1275

0.1

0.4

204

123

eDreams

4.71

5.00

4.16

4.27

1.90

-5.8

4.2

285

172

Expedia

172

161

132

108

124

6.9

3.9

202

122

Lastminute

37.7

27.5

26.0

46.0

13.1

37.1

4.8

252

152

Trip╪

39.6

39.5

33.7

33.5

46.8

0.5

0.4

85

51

Trip Advisor

53.8

49.6

28.8

30.4

NA

8.4

0.4

116

70

Trivago

4.30

4.34

2.42

2.62

na

-0.9

0.4

37

22

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Travel business updates
23 April 2021
[] Compagnie des Alpes’ H1 - Oct20-Mar21 - revenue was US$38.4mn (at US$1 to €0.82) -93.3%. Biggest revenue fall was at its ski resorts, usually 3x bigger than its leisure-park division in this period, -99.3% to US$3.0mn. Leisure-parks was -73.3% to US$33.7mn.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-17 April occupancy 57.3%, average room rate US$107.16
-10 April 59.7% US$112.22 
-3 April 57.9% US$112.76 
-27 March 57.9% US$108.31 
-20 March 58.9% US$108.07 
End-month 7-day periods:
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
-October 44.4% (-29.0%) US$91.56 (-27.4%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Canada helps travel business
22 April 2021
Canada’s funding for its visitor economy* in its budget includes:
-US$794mn (at US$1 to C$1.26) over three years.
-A US$400mn Tourism Relief Fund to give money for investments by local visitor businesses ‘adapting’ to covid. We don’t know what ‘adapting’ means in this context.
-US$65.5mn to Transport Canada for airports investing in covid-testing ‘infrastructure’.
-US$83.6mn over five years to work with international partners on Canada’s Known Traveller Digital Identity, also a covid-related project.
-US$472mn for businesses to hire back laid-off and new workers.
*Notes:
-The term ‘tourism’ is also used, although the definition of that is fluid.
-The items given add up to more than the US$794mn total; we do not know the reason why.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

IATA travel forecasts
22 April 2021
[] IATA* airline forecasts:
-RPKs will be 43% of 2019 levels this year, +26% on 2020.
-RPKs by region, this year against 2019: World -57.0%; North America -41.5%; Europe -66.3%; Asia Pacific -57.8%.
-We calculate that IATA forecasts seat sales this year will be 2.4bn, 53% of 2019 levels, which we calculate is +33% on 2020.
-International RPKs H2 2021 will be 34% of 2019 levels. Comparison with 2020 not given.
-Domestic RPKs H2 2021 will be 96% of 2019 levels, +48% on 2020.
-Airlines will lose -US$47.7bn this year. That is net; we prefer ‘gross’ because non-airline factors can affect ‘net’ results significantly. In 2020 net loss was -US$126.4bn.
*Notes:
-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

GD reports
21 April 2021
Two reports from GD* - on South America and Twitter ‘influencers’.
[] On South America:
-*Visitor arrivals -48% in 2020. Our database indicates WTO’s* count was sizeably different - -72.5% to 9.7mn. GD may have (wrongly) included Central America in its definition of ‘South America’.
-Our estimates on GD data indicate a count of 18mn visitors in 2020, 34mn this year, 37mn 2022, 39mn 2023, 40mn 2024.
-*On GD data, Peru fell most, -73%, then Venezuela -71%, Ecuador -70%. Chile fell least, -25%, then Argentina -27%, Colombia -30%. Once again, our database of WTO data shows great differences from GD data: the top-3 destinations Argentina -72%, Brazil no data but we estimate -80-85%, Chile -75%.
-*The region’s ‘tourism market’ will not reach ‘pre-pandemic’ levels until at least 2022. Not clear if ‘tourism market’ is same as ‘visitor arrivals’ for GD; or if ‘pre-pandemic’ means 2019. Or if GD forecasts 2023 for a return, or another year. Despite this, its own data indicates 2022 will be above the previous 2018 peak, before a fall in 2019 (WTO shows a -4.7% fall in 2019).
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
[] On Twitterinfluencers’:
-Top-10 travel* influencers on Twitter Q1 - Melvin Bocher 100*, Stefan Arestis and Sebastien Chaneac 90, Simon Calder 82, Christina and Kevin Wagar 74, Nicolette Orlemans 69, Scott Eddy 68, Lina & David 67, Megan Claire 66, Craig Makepeace 63, Don Nadeau 62.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
19 April 2021
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -70.4%. 2. -81.9%. 3. -87.0%. 4. -57.1%. 5. -72.8%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-April 18. 1. -47.3%. 2. -65.5%. 3. -77.7%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -52.6%.
-April 11. 1. -47.6%. 2. -65.6%. 3. -79.4%. 4. -22.8%. 5. -53.0%.
-April 4. 1. -52.9%. 2. -68.6%. 3. -81.0%. 4. -29.8%. 5. -59.1%.
-March 28. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-March 21. 1. -49.5%. 2. -68.2%. 3. -82.3%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -56.3%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-October. 1. -66.1%. 2. -79.2%. 3. -84.8%. 4. -49.6%. 5. -67.6%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* and TE* report on Mumbai hotels:
-*‘Recaptured 65% of demand’ in February ‘compared with pre-pandemic levels’.
-*Group demand was 70% of ‘pre-pandemic levels’.
-*International visitor share of nights in Mumbai was 23% before the pandemic. Demand, presumably mainly from domestic travel, was 50% of previous levels before ‘the new surge’ in covid. No dates given.
-*Forecast a ‘sedate 2022’. No clarification of what this means.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
16 April 2021
[] The China-based Trip Group (TG) forecasts 200mn ‘tourists’ for China’s 5-day May holiday break. We believe this figure represents all travellers resident in China, primarily domestic but also international. Change not given.
  Other data from TG:
-Air bookings +23%. Average economy air fare US$672 (Y1021). Trip reports this as growth, but does not give figure.
-Hotel bookings +43%. Share for ‘high-end’ hotels 50%.
-Attractions bookings +114%.
-Inter-provincial travel share 70%.
-Car rental bookings +126%; inter-provincial share 90%.
-TG bookings for April 4 Qingming festival +300%. Trip says that is compared with 2019, but we believe this is a mistake for 2020. There is no reason for such a big increase on what was a ‘normal’ pre-covid travel year 2019.
-TG bookings for the May holiday to Macau +20%.
Notes:
-TG provides no data to put these percentage growths into perspective.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for March: air tickets sold US$2.8bn  +120%; average US roundtrip ticket US$382, which we calculate is +1%; passenger trips 14.3mn +29% (domestic 9.9mn +34%, international 4.4mn +19%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$5.79mn +43%; EMD transactions 125.3k +127%.
-For the month (compared with February), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +82%; passenger trips +54% (domestic +50%, international +66%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-Starting March 2021, some percentage growths will reflect the Dead Cat Bounce and show big growths following big falls in 2020.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
15 April 2021
[] STR* reports on hotel pipeline end March:
-Americas. In Construction 240,635 rooms -11.6%. Final Planning R254,389 -13.4%. Planning R265,702 +2.8%. Most openings, in the world, were in the US. Most rooms in construction in the region in the US (figure not given), Mexico R14,491, Canada R8804.
-Asia Pacific. R462,795 -3.4%. R183,105 +17.5%. R270,350 +4.0%. Most rooms in construction in the region in China R283,893, then Vietnam R28,657.
-Europe. R258,129 +26.9%. R181,101 +23.7%. R155,615 -8.8%. Most rooms in construction in the region in Germany R51,785, UK R36,919.
*Notes: STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
[] PCW* reports on online travel in China:
-In 2015, online share 30%. In 2020, 61%.
-Online bookings in 2019 US$95.7bn.
-China’s OTAs' share of online bookings 44% in 2020.
*Notes: PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-10 April occupancy 59.7%, average room rate US$112.22 
-3 April 57.9% US$112.76 
-27 March 57.9% US$108.31 
-20 March 58.9% US$108.07 
-13 March 52.1% (-1.4%) US$102.62 (-14.5%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
-October 44.4% (-29.0%) US$91.56 (-27.4%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates
14 April 2021
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in March at 1.98mn -44.0%, Q1 6.54mn -61.8.
[] STR* reports on hotels in March in:
-Beijing occupancy 57.9%, average room rate US$86 (Y603.19). Growth not given, but ‘substantial’ because big fall (not given) in 2020.
-Berlin 16.2% -36.7%, US$80 (€65.77 -35.6%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] GD* reports there were 108 +40.3% corporate deals (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the travel business* in March*.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ - which may be only part travel-business.
-Compared with February. GD sometimes compares with average of previous 12 months, which is a better comparison.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -71.2%. 2. -82.5%. 3. -87.3. 4. -58.4%. 5. -73.5%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-April 11. 1. -47.6%. 2. -65.6%. 3. -79.4%. 4. -22.8%. 5. -53.0%.
-April 4. 1. -52.9%. 2. -68.6%. 3. -81.0%. 4. -29.8%. 5. -59.1%.
-March 28. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-March 21. 1. -49.5%. 2. -68.2%. 3. -82.3%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -56.3%.
-March 14. 1. -56.5%. 2. -72.2%. 3. -83.1%. 4. -37.6%. 5. -59.4%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-October. 1. -66.1%. 2. -79.2%. 3. -84.8%. 4. -49.6%. 5. -67.6%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
13 April 2021
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in March for US hotel companies was 5,131 -0.2% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +12.2%. Our database shows their end-2019 Index was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 207. Previous month 205; end-2019 195.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 173. Previous month: 170; end-2019 211.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 213, Asia Pacific 54, Europe 171, US 414. Previous month: World 206, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 171, US 395. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+AirBnB, Amadeus) was at 166. Previous month 158; end-2019 160.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China travel companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 106. Previous month 90; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Travel business updates
12 April 2021
[] STR* reports on hotel rooms in Q1:
-Top-5 markets by openings: US 26,057 rooms; China 12,418; Japan 2499; Australia 2382; UK 2214.
-Under construction in the US: 186,269 rooms (peak 220,207 in April 2020; sic); planning 237,703; final planning 214,287.
-Top-4 US markets in room construction: New York 21,055; Las Vegas 8579; Los Angeles 6395; Atlanta 5407.
*Notes: STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
[] IATA* reports air traffic for February (comparisons with same period in 2019, not 2020):
-Worldwide RPKs -74.7%, ASKs -63.1%, load factor 55.4% -25.3pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -74.9%, Europe -82.8%, North America -66.1%.
-International RPKs -88.7%  - Asia Pacific -95.2%, Europe -89.0%, North America -83.1%.
-Domestic RPKs -51.0%  - Australia -60.5%, Brazil -34.9%, China -51.2%, India -30.8%, Japan -72.8%, Russia +2.9%, US -56.1%.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.

Travel business updates
9 April 2021
[] Travel Mole reports that China-based OTA Trip plans to raise US$1.4bn by listing on the Hong Kong stockmarket. It is already listed on the Nasdaq stockmarket in the US.
  Its Hong Kong opening share price has been set at HK$333 (US$42.95).
  Our database shows Trip’s US price was US$39.63 end-March, flat against end-February but +15.9% against its end-2019/pre-covid price. It was listed starting 2013, and its end-year price was US$26.27.
[] Wyndham* Hotels growth in EAME* (Europe Africa Middle East):
-Signed for 38 new hotels in 2020.
-Firsts in 2020: its Super 8 brand in the UAE; Ramada Encore in Nepal; La Quinta in Dubai.
-20 hotels due to open this year. 
-Firsts this year: Wyndham in Cyprus; Days Inn in Dubai, Istanbul; Trademark (sic) in Brussels, Budapest, Dusseldorf.
*Notes:
-US-based Wyndham has 8900 franchised hotels in 95 countries. Its best-known brands are Days Inn, Ramada, Wyndham.
-Wyndham also includes the Indian sub-continent in EAME. That region is generally included in an Asian category.
[] Travel News Digest reports 65% of ‘Indian tourists’ are ‘determined to travel’ this year. TND gives no more information, or definition, to put this into context.

US travel business updates

8 April 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-3 April occupancy 57.9%, average room rate US$112.76 
-27 March 57.9% US$108.31 
-20 March 58.9% US$108.07 
-13 March 52.1% (-1.4%) US$102.62 (-14.5%)
-6 March 49.0% (-20.5%) US$98.30 (-21.9%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
-October 44.4% (-29.0%) US$91.56 (-27.4%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -72.1%. 2. -83.0%. 3. -87.6%. 4. -59.7%. 5. -74.3%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-April 4. 1. -52.9%. 2. -68.6%. 3. -81.0%. 4. -29.8%. 5. -59.1%.
-March 28. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-March 21. 1. -49.5%. 2. -68.2%. 3. -82.3%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -56.3%.
-March 14. 1. -56.5%. 2. -72.2%. 3. -83.1%. 4. -37.6%. 5. -59.4%.
-March 7. 1. -56.4%. 2. -73.7%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -37.3%. 5. -60.4%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-October. 1. -66.1%. 2. -79.2%. 3. -84.8%. 4. -49.6%. 5. -67.6%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] HNN (Hotel News Now) reports that hotels in Las Vegas have added- and added-back rooms. These include:
-Virgin Hotels opened 1500 rooms on the site where the Hard Rock Hotel closed 14 months ago.
-MGM Resorts, which had closed its Mandalay Bay, Mirage, Park MGM hotels for midweek bookings, has now opened all-week bookings.
-Caesars Entertainment, which closed Planet Hollywood and Linq Hotel for midweek bookings, has now opened all-week bookings.
-Newly opened is the 777-room Circa Resort.
-Resorts World is due to open three Hilton-brand hotels this summer.
-Wynn Resorts’ 2034-room Encore is still closed for mid-week reservations.
  The city’s 2020 visitor arrivals were 19mn, only -55%.

Airline share prices
7 April 2021
[] As we reported 2 March, IATA* would find airline stock prices showing good growth in February. It has now reported this, see table.
  Other notes:
-Our February totals for World, Europe, North America closely match those from IATA. But for Asia Pacific our +7% compares with IATA’s +14%.
-For historical comparisons, our measures are different. We use end-2019 as pre-covid prices, IATA uses a one-year measure. As a result, IATA’s measures will show a Dead Cat Bounce before ours do.
-Last month we said good news was coming for IATA. For March prices, we must warn IATA that the good news has gone. Stock prices still grew but not as much - only +1% for airlines in Europe, for example. The good news is that airlines in Asia Pacific have recovered their pre-covid prices. However, that is primarily due to growth for airlines in China.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.

Airline share prices, % growth

Item

IATA

TBA

Feb26

Jan29

Mar31

Feb26

Jan29

Notes:

1mth

1yr

1mth

1yr

1mth

end19

1mth

end19

1mth

end19

World

20.8

2.7

-6.0

-29.5

3.3

-15.0

23.3

-14.4

-6.7

-32.3

Asia Pacific

13.9

-2.8

-4.1

-23.9

8.3

2.1

7.1

-3.4

-1.6

-10.3

Europe

21.4

9.5

-9.3

-27.1

0.8

-35.6

18.9

-33.5

-10.2

-44.3

North America

29.1

9.3

-4.3

-31.2

5.3

-26.9

27.8

-30.7

-6.5

-46.0

Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association, TBA = Travel Business Analyst. Source: IATA, TBA.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, April
6 April 2021
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2021: Jan -80.4%E. 2020: Dec -78.5%P; Nov -79.5%; Oct -78.5%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2021: Jan -86.0%E. 2020: Dec -89.4%P; Nov -89.6%; Oct -89.8%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2021: Jan -76.4%E. 2020: Dec -82.3%P; Nov -85.1%; Oct -79.9%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2021: Jan -71.8%E. 2020: Dec -69.6%P; Nov -69.3%; Oct -71.4%.
[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2021: Feb 170; Jan 138. 2020: Dec 146; Nov 117; Oct 117; Sep 122. TBA.
[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Jan -72.0%. 2020: Dec -69.7%; Nov -70.3%; Oct -70.6%; Sep -72.8%. IATA.
[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Feb 205; Jan 178. 2020: Dec 178; Nov 175; Oct +144; Sep 147. TBA.
[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Feb 206; Jan 172. 2020: Dec 187; Nov 177; Oct 139; Sep 142. TBA.
[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2021: Feb 158; Jan 127. 2020: Dec 139; Nov 131; Oct 91. Net Value.
[] World visitor arrivals: 2020: Dec -85.3%; Nov -87.7%; Oct -83.4%; Sep -79.6%; Aug -76.7%. WTO.
[] Africa air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Jan -63.9%. 2020: Dec -67.7%; Nov -75.6%; Oct -76.3%; Sep -85.6%; Aug -75.3%. IATA.
[] Africa visitor arrivals: 2020: Dec -80.4%; Nov -82.5%; Oct -87.4%; Sep -87.9%; Aug -86.5%. WTO.
[] AsPac air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Jan -71.5%. 2020: Dec -63.8%; Nov -61.6%; Oct -61.6%; Sep -63.5%. IATA.
[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Feb 52; Jan 46. 2020: Dec 49; Nov 50; Oct 44. TBA.
[] AsPac visitor arrivals, estimate: 2020: Dec -95.1%; Nov -94.9%; Oct -97.2%; Sep -97.5%. TBA.
[] Europe airport passengers, total: 2020: Dec -79.4%; Nov -83.2%; Oct -75.6%; Sep -73.1%. ACI.
[] Europe air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Jan -77.4%. 2020: Dec -77.5%; Nov -82.2%; Oct -77.6%; Sep -75.8%. IATA.
[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2021: Feb 171; Jan 149. 2020: Dec 163; Nov 154; Oct 114. TBA.
[] Europe visitor arrivals: 2020: Dec -85.3%; Nov -87.3%; Oct -76.1%; Sep -71.5%; Aug -66.8%; Jul -71.0%; Jun -88.1%. WTO.
[] Middle East air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Jan -80.7%. 2020: Dec -81.3%; Nov -84.5%; Oct -85.5%; Sep -88.9%; Aug -91.3%. IATA.
[] North America air traffic, total RPKs: 2021: Jan -67.5%. 2020: Dec -68.9%; Nov -67.6%; Oct -70.1%; Sep -74.7%; Aug -77.8%. IATA.
[] US hotel occupancy: 2021: Jan -28.3%. 2020: Dec -32.5%; Nov -34.8%; Oct -30.3%; Sep -28.2%. STR.
[] US outbound travel, overseas: 2020: Nov -81.9%; Oct -85.9%; Sep -90.2%; Aug -91.2%; Jul -93.8%.
[] US travel agency sales: 2021: Feb -78.7%; Jan -85.6%. 2020: Dec -82.8%; NInternational travel into domestic
5 April 2021
According to Bernstein, a research firm, if 60% of international-travel spending is diverted towards domestic travel, biggest loser would be Iceland, which could lose 9.2% of its pre-covid GDP.
  We have calculated what could happen if international travel switched to domestic, see table. Destination gaining most would be Germany; its domestic total would more than double. Worst would be Greece, because it has a small outbound total.

If outbound travel from selected markets in Europe switched to domestic

Market

Share*,%

Share*,%

Of inbound

Of domestic

Austria

15.4

38.0

Belgium

57.5

138.1

Denmark

21.8

23.3

France┼

11.8

6.3

Germany

111.7

27.2

Greece

1.2

6.1

Italy

9.3

10.6

Netherlands

43.9

35.3

Poland

26.0

10.7

Spain

7.9

4.7

Switzerland

52.2

91.8

UK╪

67.1

19.5

Notes:
-TBA manipulation on ES counts on outbound and domestic travel, on WTO counts on inbound travel.
-*If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xx% of the annual inbound-visitor or domestic-traveller count.
-┼ES has also given an implausible, but unexplained, figure that would near double the shares shown.
-╪Based on 2013 data; even before it decided to leave the European Union, the UK cooperated poorly with EU institutions.
Source: ES=Eurostat, TBA=Travel Business Analyst, WTO=World Tourism Organization.

Selected market indicators, latest
3 April 2021
On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic (RPKs), Jan: AsPac -71.5%, Europe -77.4%, North America -67.5%, world -72.0%. IATA.
[] China Southern Airlines seat sales YT-Feb -46.0%.
[] Frankfurt airport passengers YT-Feb -82.6%.
[] Ryanair seat sales YT-Feb -68.3%.
[] Singapore visitor arrivals YT-Feb -98.3%.
[] US hotel occupancy YT-Feb -30.4%. STR.
[] US travel agency US$ sales YT-Feb -82.5%. ARC.

US travel business updates
2 April 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-27 March occupancy 57.9%, average room rate US$108.31 
-20 March 58.9% US$108.07 
-13 March 52.1% (-1.4%) US$102.62 (-14.5%)
-6 March 49.0% (-20.5%) US$98.30 (-21.9%)
-27 February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
-October 44.4% (-29.0%) US$91.56 (-27.4%)
-September 48.7% (-31.5%) US$96.38 (-29.6%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
 [] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -72.9%. 2. -83.6%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -60.9%. 5. -74.9%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-March 28. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-March 21. 1. -49.5%. 2. -68.2%. 3. -82.3%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -56.3%.
-March 14. 1. -56.5%. 2. -72.2%. 3. -83.1%. 4. -37.6%. 5. -59.4%.
-March 7. 1. -56.4%. 2. -73.7%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -37.3%. 5. -60.4%.
-February 28. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-October. 1. -66.1%. 2. -79.2%. 3. -84.8%. 4. -49.6%. 5. -67.6%.
-September. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -86.3%. 4. -51.2%. 5. -71.3%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: March travel stocks’ good - almost
1 April 2021
Commentary (category numbers below):
-(Reminder - AirBnB added into both Hotels and Travel-Tech sectors. In both it fell further, -9%, than other companies in those sectors.)
-Stockmarkets are leaving the travel business behind - they are now +14% above their pre-covid prices.
-Europe dragged into negative territory by the fall for Hotels. But if this is related to bad covid news, why does it not affect Airlines and Others in the same way?
-On the basis of non-travel news (which currently equals covid-news), the US should be doing well, with roaring vaccination and money-stimulus programs. Yet the figures are mixed. Taking the biggest (in some measures, from each sector), Delta is +1%, Marriott flat, Booking flat, and Disney -2%.
-Some segments in some regions getting close to their pre-covid (=end-2019) prices. Perhaps one more month? Within 10% - airlines and hotels AsPac, US. (Already above - China +8%, travel-tech +26%, US Others +11%.)
-Hotels hurt. Down in Europe and US - worse than for airlines.
-NFAs worse than FSAs? Certainly in Europe - Easyjet and Wizz down, Ryanair flat.
-AsPac airlines, including China, doing well - +2% above pre-covid.
-In travel-tech all except Amadeus and Lastminute above pre-covid.
-The hope of relaunching Jet India appears to have faded; it fell one-third.
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +13%, Delta +1%, ICAG +3/4% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -8%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +7%, Easyjet -1%, Norwegian +21%, Ryanair flat, Southwest +5%, Spring China -3%, Wizz -9%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor -7%, AirB&B -9%, InterContinental -1%, Marriott flat.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +5%, Shangri-La -2%.
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +1%, Sands -3%, Wynn -5%.
-Planemakers. Airbus +1%, Boeing +20%, Embraer +15%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -3%, Fraport -1%, Guangzhou +1%.
-Cruisers. Carnival -1%, RCC -8%, Star +20%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirB&B -9%, Amadeus +5%, Booking flat, Expedia +7%, Trip flat.
-No-hopers. Hertz flat, Jet India -31%, Norwegian +21%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +8%, Hong Kong -2%, London +4%, Tokyo +1%, US (average of our four +5%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks). Compared with previous month: +6%. Compared with end-2019: -14%.
-World. Airlines +3%, Hotels -1%, Others +3%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -15%, Hotels -9%, Others -14%.
-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific +5%, Europe -2%, US +2%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -12%, Europe -27%, US +1%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China. Compared with previous month: Airlines +3%, Hotels +6%, Others +5%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -2%, Hotels -9%, Others -25%.
-China +7%; compared with end-2019, +8%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -1%; compared with end-2019, +4%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines +1%, Hotels -6%, Others flat. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -36%, Hotels -16%, Others -29%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines +6%, Hotels -2%, Others +3%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -8%, Hotels -2%, Others +11%.
-Rest-of world. Compared with previous month: +18%. Compared with end-2019: -41%.
-Travel-tech +5%. Compared with end-2019: +26%.
-Stockmarkets +3%. Compared with end-2019: +14%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 213, Asia Pacific 54, Europe 171, US 414. Index previous month: World 206, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 171, US 395. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 106. Index previous month 100. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 166. Index previous month 158. Index end-2019 157.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel business updates
31 March 2021
[] WTO* reports:
-January visitor arrivals -87%.
-Americas -79%, Asia Pacific -96%, Europe -85%.
-Q1 2021 forecast -85% (over Q1 2019).
-Rest-of-2021 forecast dependent on two WTO scenarios, mostly related to travel restrictions, vaccination programs, vaccination passports.
-Best scenario based on July rebound, resulting in +65% growth for all-2021 against 2020, -55% against 2019.
-Worst scenario based on September rebound, resulting in +30% against 2020, -67% against 2019.
*Notes: WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
[] GD* reports on corporate deals (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the travel business in February. Deals done 77 -3.8% over the previous month (GD sometimes compares with average of previous 12 months, which is a better comparison).
*Notes: GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in Q4 at 5.1mn -75.6%, all-2020 25.2mn -70.0%.
[] Trading Platforms reports that Trip Advisor 2020 revenue was US$604mn -61%. There had also been a (slight) fall in 2019 - US$1.56bn against TA’s high of US$1.61bn in 2018.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
30 March 2021
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 158 in February. Index previous month 127. Index end-2019 157.
  Comments:
-A mixed month - matching all-travel stocks. Two of our nine down, three more-or-less flat, leaving four to grow.
-Newly-listed AirBnB had the fastest growth January, then the biggest fall in February. Welcome to the roller-coaster.
-Lastminute showed impressive +37% growth in the month, but it is still the furthest from getting back to its pre-covid price (=end-2019), -18%.
-China’s travel-tech darling, Trip, was weak. But it is listed in the US, and official moves against China companies in the last months of the Trump presidency may have slowed sentiment. Even though the Biden presidency is less malevolent towards China companies, there may still be some leftover negative concern.
-(We also note comparison with end-2019. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)
-Six (of eight; AirBnB not in the index) are comfortably ahead of their pre-covid prices. Only Amadeus (surprise) and Lastminute are still below but seem on track to get back on track in the next two months.
-Expedia deserves special note. Not only was it the first travel-tech to recover from covid, but it is now +59% ahead of its pre-covid price!
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-21


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Feb 21

Jan 21

Dec 20

Dec 19

 

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

AirBnB

206

184

147

na

 

na

12.4

0.9

143

90

Amadeus

57.5

54.1

59.6

72.8

 

40.7

6.3

6.1

174

110

Booking╪

2329

1944

2227

2054

 

1275

19.8

0.9

204

129

eDreams

5.00

3.75

4.16

4.27

 

1.90

33.5

6.1

303

191

Expedia

161

124

132

108

 

124

29.7

3.9

189

119

Lastminute

27.5

23.1

26.0

46.0

 

13.1

19.0

-0.4

184

116

Trip╪

39.5

31.8

33.7

33.5

 

46.8

23.9

0.9

84

53

Trip Advisor

49.6

31.0

28.8

30.4

 

NA

60.2

0.9

107

68

Trivago

4.34

2.52

2.42

2.62

 

na

72.2

0.9

37

23

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Post-covid outlook
26 March 2021
A recent presentation by our editor provided some revised and new elements to covid’s effect on the travel business in Asia Pacific. We have extracted (and summarised) some elements here:
Firstly, the bad news
In effect, there is so much, it has become difficult to decide which are more important. In 2020, broadly:
-62mn travel-industry-related jobs were lost.
-Outbound travel fell -70%, Asia -80%, Europe -66%, North America -69%. 
-World air traffic -70%; AsPac -62%.
-World visitor arrivals -83%; AsPac -97%.
-Current travel-related stock prices, compared with end-2019: World -16%, AsPac -9%, Europe -25%, US -1%.
-To put figures into perspective, there was a 75-90% fall in most travel measures in 2020. It does not matter too much about the exact figure - a -75% fall is as serious as a 95% fall.
Now for some good (ish) news
-Some of the following is from rich countries - OECD members:
-One is ‘Excess Saving’. Many people were locked-down in some form in 2020, yet many received support money from their governments. As a result, they may have saved more - partly because there has been less on which to spend their money.
-One figure indicates that savings would normally have been US$3tn in 2020. But it has been estimated at US$6tn, meaning some people have twice as much to spend as normal. Hopefully, some of this spending will go on travel.
-Economic growth forecast for this year is +6.2%. At the end of 2020, the forecast growth for this year was for +3.3%, meaning economists forecast growth will be double what they forecast just three months ago.
-Growth in discretionary spend forecast - such as on restaurants and travel. But as you cannot buy more than one meal, travel may do well.
-Bank balances of US nationals this year against 2020; +25% for the richest, for instance.
-The financial world has a not-very-nice phrase, the Dead Cat Bounce - if a dead cat drops, it will bounce. In the travel world, that means this year there will be some big growths in travel numbers. After a -46% fall in hotel revenue in 2020, it has been forecast to grow +43% this year. One early example is Macau - visitors in February grew +173%.
-It is likely that people will be encouraged when they see strong growth this year. Confidence will grow.
-A study on travel plans in China, Germany, US found planning at least one trip this year - 66% in China, 37% in Germany, 42% in the US.
Vaccines/health passports
Still many unknowns. For instance:
-Even if IATA issues an ‘IATA Travel Pass’ as a type of health certificate, countries will still decide whether to accept travellers.
-Will types of vaccines become important? For instance, Europe has authorised four types of vaccines - three made in the US, one in Europe. Not, so far, those from China and Russia. It seems unlikely that countries in Europe will accept a Travel Pass from someone who has had a vaccination with, for example, a China vaccine.

Travel business updates
25 March 2021
[] Travel News Digest reports Maldives targets 1.5mn visitors this year. Our database showed it counted 0.56mn -67.4% in 2020, 1.70mn +14.7% in 2019. Its 2021 target would require a +170.1% growth on 2020, but would be -11.9% on 2019.
[] GD* reports Royal Caribbean Cruises counted +200% ‘influencer conversations’ on Twitter.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-No figures to put this in context. Reminder: 1 to 3 is +200%.
-No definition of ‘influencer conversations on Twitter’. Wikipedia explains an influencer is ‘someone who has the power to affect the purchasing decisions of others because of his or her authority, knowledge, position, or relationship with his or her audience’.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
[] WTTC* reports on the travel business (TTB) in 2020:
-TTB ‘lost’ US$4.5tn. We believe WTTC’s figure is showing a fall in revenue; WTTC does not clarify.
-TTB’s contribution to GDP was US$4.7tn -49.1% (5.5% of total GDP), compared to total GDP fall of -3.7% (10.4%).
-In 2019, TTB contributed 10.6% (334mn) of all jobs. By end-2020, there were 272mn -18.5% TTB jobs.
-International TTB spend was down -69.4%, domestic -45% (WTTC rounded).
-WTTC forecasts TTB’s contribution to total GDP will be +48.5% this year, and +25.3% in 2022.
-It forecasts that if vaccine rollout continues ‘at pace’ (no further explanation), and travel restrictions are ‘relaxed’ (ditto) before the (northern) summer, the 62mn jobs lost in 2020 could be recovered ‘by 2022’ (we believe WTTC means ‘by end-2020’).
*Notes:
-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
-An important part of its work has been to explain to world governments how valuable was the travel business (which, in respect of its name, the WTTC must define as the meaningless ‘travel & tourism’).
-What the WTTC has been struggling to do in its 30 years of existence, was achieved in 4/5 months of the covid coronavirus in 2020. Surely everyone now knows the value of the travel business?
-Although not expected to disband, WTTC has not yet announced any new/replacement mission.
-WTTC has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business. It terms all this a travel GDP (gross domestic product).
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

US travel business updates
25 March 2021
[] STR* reports on hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-20 March occupancy 58.9%, average room rate US$108.07 
-13 March 52.1% (-1.4%) US$102.62 (-14.5%)
-6 March 49.0% (-20.5%) US$98.30 (-21.9%)
-27 February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-20 February 48.1% (-23.8%) US$101.57 (-22.1%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
-December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%)
-November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%)
-October 44.4% (-29.0%) US$91.56 (-27.4%)
-September 48.7% (-31.5%) US$96.38 (-29.6%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] Travel agencies.
ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -73.6%. 2. -84.0%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -62.1%. 5. -75.5%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-March 21. 1. -49.5%. 2. -68.2%. 3. -82.3%. 4. -23.0%. 5. -56.3%.
-March 14. 1. -56.5%. 2. -72.2%. 3. -83.1%. 4. -37.6%. 5. -59.4%.
-March 7. 1. -56.4%. 2. -73.7%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -37.3%. 5. -60.4%.
-February 28. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-February 21. 1. -64.1%. 2. -79.9%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -46.5%. 5. -67.9%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
-December. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.
-November. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.
-October. 1. -66.1%. 2. -79.2%. 3. -84.8%. 4. -49.6%. 5. -67.6%.
-September. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -86.3%. 4. -51.2%. 5. -71.3%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
25 March 2021
[] IATA* reports on air accidents in 2020. Some figures show growth:
-Accidents 38 -27.5% over the 5-year 2016-20 average (‘5A’ hereafter). Fatal accidents 5 -34.2% over 5A.
-Accident rate 1.71 per 1mn flights; 5A 1.38/1mn. IATA member airlines 0.83/1mn; 5A 0.96/1mn. 
-Fatality risk 0.13; 5A same.
-Jet aircraft hull losses 0.21 per 1mn flights (equals 1 major accident every 4.8mn flights); 0.20 over 5A. Propeller aircraft hull losses 1.59 per 1mn flights (1 every 0.63mn flights); 1.07 over 5A.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
[] GD* reports on travel agencies (mainly in the UK):
-17% of travellers booked with an offline travel agency.
-UK-based STA Travel stopped operating in August 2020; it had 50 outlets.
-Australia-based Flight Centre closed 421 out of its 740 outlets (FC has about 1300 locations in all countries, mainly Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, UK, US; we believe this report covers the UK; GD does not clarify) ‘during’ covid (meaning not clear as covid is still infecting people in most markets).
-Germany-based TUI Travel to close 48 UK outlets this year; it closed 166 in 2020. It would then have 314 outlets.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
[] HNN (Hotel News Now) reports:
-World hotel occupancy will be 80-100% of 2019 levels by Q4 2022.
-Length of stay is growing - London up from average four nights to 10-12 nights; periods not given.
-2020 occupancies in Bogota, Buenos Aires, Marrakech, Nairobi, Rome, Sao Paulo were below 25%.
-Occupancies are more varied. In Edinburgh, variances in 2019 were 10-20%; in 2020 70-80%.

Travel business updates
22 March 2021
[] Some economic data indicates the reasonable possibility of a strong rebound in richer countries, once the first wave of vaccinations has been completed - say, June/July?
  A selection, all from a report in The Economist:
-Savings in the 21 richest countries (in, broadly, a 9-month period in a ‘normal’ year) estimated to be US$3tn. But in 2020, this was estimated at US$6tn - in other words, an ‘excess saving’ of US$3tn.
-OECD increased its GDP growth forecast for this year to +6.2%, double; its earlier forecast as +3.3%. Actual was -5.5% in 2020, +1.6% 2019.
-Growth in discretionary spend forecast - such as restaurants and travel. But as you cannot buy more than one meal, travel may do well.
-Bank balances of US nationals this year against 2020 - +40% for poorest, +25% for richest.
 [] The Dead Cat Bounce for the travel business this year has started. Visitor arrivals in Macau in February were +173.1%, mainly due to China’s +426.4%. However, total arrivals compared with February 2019 are still -88.0%.

Hotel business updates
18 March 2021
[] Statista* report in the hotel business shows:
-*World hotel business revenue forecasts: US$284.7bn +43.4% this year; US$342.6bn +20% in 2022; US$390bn (which we calculate would be +13.8%) in 2023; US$456.2bn in 2025 (2024 not given; we calculate an annual average +8.2% over the two years).
-*It puts 2020 at US$198.6bn -46%, 2019 at US$368bn (change not given).
-*‘Users’ in hotels (assumed to be guests) were 595mn -45.9% in 2020. Forecast to be 845.8mn +42.2% this year, and 1.19bn in 2023 (2022 not given; we calculate an annual average +18.6% over the two years).
-*US hotel ‘industry’ revenues forecast to be US$65.6bn +55% this year. It puts ‘before the pandemic’ (which we assume is 2019) at US$46bn. We do not know if Statista includes outside-US revenues, as the ‘industry’ includes international groups such as Marriott.
-*It reports some corporate hotel revenue. It puts Wyndham world largest by hotel numbers; US$1.3bn -36% in 2020. Choice, #2, US$774.1mn -31%. Marriott, #3, revenue down -US$10.4bn; period and comparative figures not given. Hilton, #4, revenue down -US$1.5bn in 2020; comparative figures not given.
-*For those four plus InterContinental, total revenue fell -US$14bn; period and comparative figures not given.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
17 March 2021
[] ITBB* reports its virtual exhibition* last week. Some results* (our calculations on comparison with its actual 2019 exhibition, unless stated otherwise):
-Registered exhibitors 3513 -64.9%.
-From 120 -33.7% countries.
-Visitors 65,700 -58.9%.
-Foreign share 64.5%. ITBB has not reported this before; we believe it is usually around 70%.
-There were conference-like events; ITBB reported numbers attending ‘program of events’ - 52,600 +87.9%. ITBB does not always report this number; the last time was in 2017.
-Media 1000 -81.7%. ITBB does not always report this number; the last time was in 2017.
*Notes:
-ITBB = ITB Berlin, the travel trade exhibition in the city.
-Its 2020 event was cancelled due to the covid pandemic.

Travel Trends
16 March 2021
[] II* on travel trends:
-*Outbound travel in 2020 fell -70%. -Asia -80%, Europe -66%, Latin America* -70%, North America -69%. Other regions not given.
-*Holiday trips -71%, business trips -67%, other private trips (definition not known) -62%.
-*In holiday travel, roundtrips (definition not known) -75%, city breaks -75%, beach holidays -53%, nature oriented holidays -53%.
-*Air travel -74%, international car -58%. Not clear if air, like car, is international. Other ground (rail, cruise, ship) not given.
-*Hotel industry -73%. Measure not clarified - whether hotel arrivals, guests, occupancy. Other accommodation types fall ‘less’ - data not given.
-Average spend -14% - data not given.
-*Survey indicates ‘66% of outbound travellers worldwide intend to travel abroad again in 2021’. Survey details not known. We presume this is 66% of the 2019 total; II do not clarify.
-II also report an IPKI* survey this January with apparently different results - showing 62% of international travellers worldwide intend to travel abroad this year.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Russia outbound
10 March 2021
Russia-based RMAA* on Russia’s outbound market:
-Nationals made 14mn -71% international trips in 2020, but a 54% share were in Q1.
-Abkhazia counted most from Russia, 2.8mn -41%. This territory is considered by most to be part of Georgia. Only Russia and a few acolytes consider it a separate country. So that technically would reduce Russia’s 2020 outbound count to 11mn; we don’t know what share Abkhazia took of the 48mn total in 2019.
-Turkey 2nd, 2.2mn -68%; Ukraine 3rd, 1.3mn -49%. This is probably not Ukraine proper, but the eastern part of the country that, as with Abkhazia, is a Russia-supported breakaway region.
-Most travel, data not given, to Abkhazia and Ukraine is VFR (visiting friends or relatives).
-Tourist (assumed leisure travel) were 3.7mn -79%. In size order: Turkey 1.48mn -72.1% (all changes are our calculations), Thailand 345k -58.1%, UAE 281k -62.8%, Germany 138k -81.7 %, 133k -86.2 %, Vietnam 130 k -69.0 %, Spain 83k -90.0 %, Czech R 79k -80.3 %, China 60k -93.5 %, France 59k -85.5 %, India 57k -56.5 %, Cuba 50k -58.0 %, Dominican R 49k - 65.0%, Austria 45k - 75.4%, UK 42k - 73.4%.
-RMAA also counts Apr-Dec 20. In order (change not available): Turkey 1.28mn, Tanzania 35k, UAE 31k, Maldives 18k, UK 9k, Cuba 7k, Egypt 4k, US 3k, Armenia 2k, Abkhazia 2k.
-Growth to Tanzania made it 2nd-biggest market source there. In September 2020, Russia was the leading source in the Maldives. In December 2020 Russian arrivals in Maldives +70%. In January 2021, largest source in the Maldives again. Russian arrivals (not Russian departures) were 21k +67.4%. All previous topics are RMAA selections.
-Business travel -64% in 2020. Biggest falls: China, Korea, Germany. Only growth was to Ukraine. Details, in size order: (all changes are our calculations), Kazakhstan 57k -21 %, Syria 17k -19%, Turkey 17k -43%, Germany 14k - 78%, Ukraine 11k +134%, Armenia 6k - 62%, UAE 6k - 73%, Finland 6k - 61%, Kyrgyzstan 5k - 38%, Uzbekistan 5k - 72%, China 5k - 92%, Korea 5k - 84%, Poland 5k - 29%, UK 4k - 66%, Azerbaijan 4k - 75%.
*Notes: RMAA = Russian Marketing & Advertising Agency, founded 2008, a marketing consultancy.

Travel business updates
5 March 2021
[] Finaria* reports on AirBnB (ABB):
-January bookings were 70% of pre-covid levels. Finaria does not say when ‘pre-covid’ was - usually it would be December 2019 or January 2020.
-In early March ABB’s market value was US$110.71bn; Expedia’s was US$20bn, Booking US$93bn, Trip Advisor US$5bn; Finaria rounded.
-In April 2020, ABB’s bookings were -72%. We do not know the relevance of this period.
-‘By June 2020’ domestic reservations (presumed US domestic) had doubled to reach 80%. We cannot calculate the value of this.
-Stays within 300km from home accounted for 56% of bookings, up from 31%. Period not known.
-By end January, bookings had recovered to 70% of pre-covid levels. Note as above.
*Notes:
-Finaria is an Italy-based financial trading company.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] PCW* reports on Latin America:
-Gross travel bookings, US$57.4bn +3% in 2019, ‘forecast’ to be US$21.7bn -62% in 2020. As this report was released this month, we assume that is PCW’s estimate.
-2021 forecast +88%, which we calculate would take it to US$40.8bn.
-Argentina ‘tourism’ will ‘rebound when travel with Brazil resumes’; we do not know the precise meaning of this. Brazil online share to reach 50% in 2023. Chile to return to 2018 level in 2023 when it reaches US$5bn. Colombia to recover to pre-covid levels in 2024, Mexico in 2023. Different measures by PCW, with no additional clarification.
-Airlines and hotels forecast to be 84% share in 2020. See note above on 2020.
-Forecasts travel bookings. Best outlook: 2021 $55.2bn, 2022 $66.2bn, 2023 $74.2bn, 2024 $83.1bn. Medium 41.0bn 51.0bn 57.0bn 62.0bn. Worst 31.0bn 46.5bn 51.2bn 56.3bn.
-Market share. Mexico 48%, Brazil 27%, Colombia 12%, Chile 10%, Argentina 2%. Presumed to be 2020.
-Online market share. Mexico 46%, Brazil 31%, Colombia 11%, Chile 10%, Argentina 2%. Presumed to be 2020.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Travel plans - China, Germany, US
3 March 2021
ITBB* and Statistica* (together, ITBS) report on travel behaviour in China, Germany, US:
-*70% are ‘thinking about’ ‘private’ trips this year.
-*Planning at least one trip this year - 66% in China, 37% in Germany, 42% in the US.
-*Spend. 35% in China, 25% in Germany, 25% in the US ‘believe they will spend’ more on travelling over the next 12 months than the previous 12 months.
-*50% in China, ‘think they [will] travel more on an ongoing basis’ after the covid pandemic ‘has passed’, 17% in Germany, 25% in the US.
-56% in China of those not planning to travel this year feel uneasy about taking trips during the covid pandemic, 50% in Germany, 34% in the US.
-45% in China give travel restrictions as their reason for staying at home, 23% in Germany, 21% in the US.
-*42% in China ‘take [beach holidays] into consideration’ in 34% in Germany, 36% in the US.
-*City breaks are most important for 49% in China. But VFR (visiting family or friends) is first for 37% in Germany, 42% in the US.
-*86% of ‘private’ travellers in China plan to stay in hotels, 42% in Germany, 56% in the US.
-16% in China plan to stay overnight with family or friends, 33% in Germany, 33% in the US.
-*50% in China believe their travel behaviour will change ‘long-term’, 35% in Germany, 38% in the US. Reasons given were environmental considerations (47% in China), covid (83% in China, 83% in Germany, 64% in the US).
-Among those who said their travel behaviour will change ‘long-term’, 88% in China, 76% in Germany, 77% in the US agree that “I will take more vacation in my country” (sic).
-Among those planning trips this year 29% in China plan to go ‘abroad’, 61% in Germany, 15% in the US.
-51% in China plan business trips this year, 27% in Germany, 34% in the US.
-*63% in China, 65% in Germany, 66% in the US agree that “I will take fewer business trips”.
-*91% in China, 61% in Germany, 68% in the US agree that “I will take more nature/outdoor trips”.
*Notes:
-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

We have good news for IATA
2 March 2021
A month can be a long time in the airline business. IATA* reports sizeable falls in the value of airline shares in January. It shows -6.0% against end-2020. Our TBA-Tracking shows similar, -6.7%.
  But there was a bump in February. IATA has not yet reported for that month, but we show +23.3% against January.
  For other findings, see table.
  Commentary:
-IATA shows its Index for World, 88.8, plus the three main regions. We calculate for World only - showing 138 in January, 170 in February. IATA’s 100 base is January 2014; our 100 base is earlier, December 2006. We plan to make the adjustment to the later date to match IATA.
-For end-January (over end-December) prices in the regions, there are differences between IATA growth and our growth, but not substantial.
-There are sizeable differences for the longer-term comparison. But IATA compares against ‘one-year’, which we assume is end-January 2020. Our comparison is with end-December-2019, as some stock prices in Asia Pacific started to show covid-related falls in January 2020.
  IATA’s comparison-period would theoretically show a lesser fall. Yet IATA shows -24% and we show -10%. Unfortunately, we have no explanation for this - except the general one that we presumably have different airlines in our measures.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.

END

 

 

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What-You-Should-Know, Asia Pacific: Asia Pacific visitor forecasts. Airline financial results compared, Travel Stocks Indices, March travel stocks, Airlines in Asia Pacific. Plus: Market Monitor; ZERO; Market Headlines; People-in-Travel; Net Value; and 10 regular tables of market data.

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