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Travel-Industry-Data News

Reports on many of these topics are also published in our W.Y.S.K-What-You-Should-Know (Asia Pacific and Europe), Net Value (NV), People-in-Travel (PinT), ZERO (the travel business and the environment) monthly-reports. Also in blogs (Foxtrots, Trottings), and social and business media (Facebook, Linked In). These may include some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
19 October 2021
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in September at 3.72mn +227.8%, YTD 22.4mn +11.6%.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -49.9%. 2. -65.4%. 3. -73.7%. 4. -30.8%. 5. -53.8%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-October 17. 1. -30.1%. 2. -46.9%. 3. -54.3%. 4. -8.8%. 5. -32.0%.
-October 10. 1. -31.8%. 2. -48.9%. 3. -56.3%. 4. -11.3%. 5. -32.5%.
-October 3. 1. -34.9%. 2. -52.2%. 3. -57.9%. 4. -13.8%. 5. -38.2%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-September. 1. -38.0%. 2. -55.9%. 3. -60.6%. 4. -16.0%. 5. -42.7%.
-August. 1. -43.0%. 2. -60.1%. 3. -64.3%. 4. -24.3%. 5. -46.3%.
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Reuters reports on ITA, Italy’s new airline that took over from closed Alitalia October 16:
-ITA paid US$103mn (at US$1 to €0.87) for Alitalia's brandname, for which  Alitalia was hoping for US$310mn.
-Italy will invest US$1.55bn over three years in ITA.
-ITA will start with 52 aircraft and 2800 employees; Alitalia had 110/10,000.
-ITA needs to be profitable by end-2025.
-The 7000 Alitalia workers not hired by ITA will be on a planned temporary scheme paid for by the government until ‘at least’ end-2022.

Amadeustravel survey
18 October 2021
Some findings from research on travellers* by Amadeus (not compared with earlier surveys unless shown):
-*77% want to travel in the next year.
-*50% of travellers expect to take a business flight later this year. Note 2. Hard to understand, when BT is generally 20-30% of total travel. Amadeus notes ‘travellers’, although study notes ‘consumers’; we don’t know if here, these are the same.
-35% said guidelines on where and how to travel are confusing - related to covid restrictions.
-If requested, 93% would provide personal data for health certification; it was 91% in February 2021.
-*48% of business travellers and 36% of leisure travellers would be willing to provide their health data for travel activity.
-Main current concerns for travellers: 41% catching covid while travelling; also 41% self-isolation or quarantine before/after travel; 37% changing restrictions resulting in last-minute cancellations.
-97% said that technology would increase their confidence to travel; 91% in February 2021, 84% September 2020.
  Favoured technologies:
-44% support applications giving on-trip notifications and alerts.
-41% self-service check-in.
-41% contactless mobile payments (such as Apple or Google Pay, PayPal, Venmo).
-40%  automated and flexible cancellation policies.
  On travel and sustainability, and what would help the travel business become more sustainable longterm:
-*46% said greater availability of green modes of transport - such as electric planes, trains - ‘might help’.
-*44% said ‘making sustainable travel more cost effective would be beneficial’. Note 2. Also valueless; Amadeus appears to be using ‘cost effective’ not for its proper meaning, but ‘lower cost’, although that more clearly shows the question/answer has no value.
-*41% said ‘transparency around travel companies’ sustainability policies would help’.
*Notes:
-Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*), are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
15 October 2021
[] GD* forecasts arrivals from Europe in GCC* destinations will be 13.3mn in 2024, a +17.5% AAGR*. Other data:
-Totals: 2024 +3.9%; 2023 12.8mn +5.8%; 2022 12.1mn +47.6%; this year 8.2mn +110.3%; 2020 3.9mn -67% (GD rounded); 2019 11.8mn. Growths are our calculations except GD for 2020; 2019 growth not given.
-Arrivals from the UK forecast at 3mn a +21.7% AAGR, presumed to be 2019-24.
*Notes:
-AAGR = annual average growth rate. GD notes ‘by 2024’, which is probably end-2024. Start year is not clear, but presumed to be 2019.
-GCC = Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
-GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-9 October (against comparable week in 2019, not 2020) occupancy 63.9% (-9.6%), average room rate US$134.63 (+2.4%).
-2 October 61.7% (-9.2%) US$130.87 (+1.2%)
-25 September 63.2% (-11.0%) US$133.69 (-2.0%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-August 61.0% (-8.4%) US$131.91 (+3.2%)
-July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] BTN* reports on Europe-US air travel:
-Midoco reports Europe-US (one direction) Week 38 air bookings +50% compared with Week 37.
-Travel Counsellors (TC) reports Week 38 UK-US (one direction) bookings were +255% compared with Week 1, +385% Week 39, +280% Week 40, +540% Week 41.
-TC’s UK-US pre-covid share was 25%, this September 24%, overtaking domestic UK bookings 21%, the UAE 12%.
-TC’s total corporate bookings grew +40% over four weeks in September. Week 39 corporate bookings were +50% over pre-covid, highest this year.
-TC’s top-3 US corporate-booking trip shares were New York 23%, California 13%, Florida 12%.
*Notes: BTN is UK-based publication, Business Travel News.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
14 October 2021
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in September for US hotel companies was 5,167 +5.2% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +13.0%. Our database shows: their end-2020 Index was 4,574 -13.2%, end-2019 5,270 +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, published in the current editions of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know:
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 204. Previous month 200; end-2020 178; end-2019 195.
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 162. Previous month: 154; end-2020 146; end-2019 211.
-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 219, Asia Pacific 53, Europe 167, US 437. Previous month: World 206, Asia Pacific 51, Europe 163, US 404. End-2020 World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+AirBnB, Amadeus) was at 166. Previous month 151; end-2020 139; end-2019 160.
-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China travel companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 95. Previous month 93; end-2020 95; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

UK travel business
13 October 2021
WTTC* reports on the travel business (TTB) in the UK:
-Visitor spend this year forecast to fall 50%. A comparison with 2019 might be more valuable, as Jan-Mar 2020 was the start of the big fall.
-TTB’s contribution to the economy forecast to grow 32% this year; all-world is +30.7%. Most (? ‘primarily spurred’) UK growth was from domestic travel; domestic spend forecast to grow +49%.
-2021 outbound travel spend forecast to fall -50%.
-In 2020, jobs in TTB in the UK fell -307,000. No growth is forecast for this year.
-In 2022, TTB’s contribution to GDP forecast to grow +53%, which would represent an additional US$89.2bn (at US$1 to £0.74).
-In 2022, Visitor spend forecast to be US$39.2bn, -20% against pre-covid 2019.
-In 2022, jobs in TTB in the UK forecast to be 4.7mn +14%, which we calculate would be +10.5% above 2019.
*Notes:
-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
-This year, WTTC has started to claim that it ‘represents’ the worldwide travel business. This is wrong (it does not represent us, for example), and surprisingly narcissistic. We hope this is a temporary editorial mis-statement.
-Where rounded, by WTTC.

Travel business updates
12 October 2021
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -50.6%. 2. -66.0%. 3. -74.3%. 4. -31.5%. 5. -54.5%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-October 10. 1. -31.8%. 2. -48.9%. 3. -56.3%. 4. -11.3%. 5. -32.5%.
-October 3. 1. -34.9%. 2. -52.2%. 3. -57.9%. 4. -13.8%. 5. -38.2%.
-September 26. 1. -38.0%. 2. -55.9%. 3. -60.6%. 4. -16.0%. 5. -42.7%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-August. 1. -43.0%. 2. -60.1%. 3. -64.3%. 4. -24.3%. 5. -46.3%.
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports Berlin hotels September occupancy was 61.3%, average room rate US$113 (€95.01). Against pre-covid September 2019, we calculate -27.3pts, -24.3% (on € rate). 
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Post-covid outlook
11 October 2021
WTTC* with OE* reports on the travel business (TTB):
-*Share of TTB to overall GDP estimated to grow 30.7% this year, which would mean US$1.4tn more. Note 1.
-*TTB generated US$9.2tn in 2019, US$4.7tn -49.1% in 2020, a forecast US$6.4tn +37.5% this year, US$8.6tn +34% in 2022. Note 2.
-Share of TTB to overall GDP forecast to grow +31.7% in 2022.
-*‘With the right measures’, jobs could pass 2019 levels ‘by 2022’. Note 3.
-*19mn jobs in TTB ‘in the balance’ this year. Note 4. We don’t know what WTTC’s ‘balance’ means, but guess that those jobs could be lost. Sometimes, WTTC includes ancillary jobs in its ‘travel’ total (for example, laundry workers providing clean sheets to hotels); clarification not given here.
-*In 2020, 62mn jobs in TTB lost. This year forecasts growth of +0.7%, in 2022 +18%. This year it reports TTB will add 19mn +6.8%. Note 5.
-*Forecasts 349mn +20.1% jobs in TTB in 2021, which it notes as being above 2019. Note 6.
*Notes:
-All our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
8 October 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
- 2 October (against comparable week in 2019, not 2020) occupancy 61.7% (-9.2%), average room rate US$130.87 (+1.2%)
-25 September 63.2% (-11.0%) US$133.69 (-2.0%)
-18 September 63.0% (-11.6%) US$131.04 (-2.6%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-August 61.0% (-8.4%) US$131.91 (+3.2%)
-July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] GD* forecasts VFR* trips from the UK will grow from a forecast 10.6mn in 2021 to 20.5mn in 2024. We calculate that would be a +24.6% AAGR*; GD calculates +24.8%.
*Notes:
-AAGR = annual average growth rate. GD does not note that 2021 total would be greatly below the pre-covid 2019 total, and thus 2021-24 would likely result in a higher AAGR. For a clearer AAGR indicator, GD should have calculated from the 2019 total.
-GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.
-VFR = visiting friends or relatives.

Travel business updates
7 October 2021
[] BTN reports that CWT* plans a bankruptcy filing in the US. CWT wants to reduce its debt by 50% - which means not pay 50% of its bills.
*Notes: CWT was Carlson Wagonlits (properly Wagons-Lits) Travel, where the WL part of the name came from now-departed owners, the Accor group.
[] Skift reports on staffing at three corporate travel agencies, and business travel:
-US-based American Express had 17,000 employees worldwide before covid, and now has 14,000,, which we calculate is -17.7%.
-US-based BCD Travel 14,900, 11,900, -20.1%.
-FCTG (Australia-based Flight Centre Travel Group) 20,000, 14,000, -30.0%.
-Certares, a private equity company, forecasts business travel volume (probably US only; not clarified) will be 80% of 2019 by end-2023. We don’t know why Certares does not project when business travel will reach 100%, but it seems a reasonable assumption that that would be in 2024.

Travel business updates
6 October 2021
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -51.3%. 2. -66.6%. 3. -74.8%. 4. -32.3%. 5. -55.2%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-October 3. 1. -34.9%. 2. -52.2%. 3. -57.9%. 4. -13.8%. 5. -38.2%.
-September 26. 1. -38.0%. 2. -55.9%. 3. -60.6%. 4. -16.0%. 5. -42.7%.
-September 19. 1. -39.4%. 2. -59.2%. 3. -61.7%. 4. -16.2%. 5. -45.6%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-August. 1. -43.0%. 2. -60.1%. 3. -64.3%. 4. -24.3%. 5. -46.3%.
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] IATA* reports and forecasts on results for the airline business:
-Net loss estimate for 2020 at -US$137.7bn (in April it estimated -US$126.4bn).
-Net loss forecasts - -US$51.8bn this year (in April it forecast -US$47.7bn), for 2022 -US$11.6bn.
-RPKs this year forecast to be 40% of 2019, for 2022 61%.
-Seat sales this year forecast to be 2.3bn, for 2022 3.4bn. There were 4.5bn in 2019. 2020 not reported.
-Domestic RPKs this year forecast to reach 73% of 2019 levels, for 2022 93%.
-International RPKs this year forecast to reach 22% of 2019 levels, for 2022 44%.
-Profits and losses (IATA does not clarify if operating- or net-) by region. Asia Pacific this year forecast losses -US$11.2bn, for 2022 -US$2.4bn. Europe -US$20.9bn, -US$9.2bn.  North America NA, profit +US$9.9bn. 
-Regional RPKs forecast: World -59.7% for 2022, -39.2% for this year; Asia Pacific -47.3%, -65.8%; Europe-40.8%, -64.3%;  North America-18.8%, -40.0%.

Travel business updates
5 October 2021
[] MKG* reports on the hotel business in Europe this past summer*:
-Europe occupancy 52.4% +16.8pts.
-Destination measures are Seaside and Excluding Seaside; totals are not given. We take ES on the basis that the seaside is not important in certain markets, such as Germany. Occupancy - Europe 51%, France 55%, Germany  47%, Italy 45%, Netherlands 44%, Spain 47%, UK 58%.
*Notes:
-MKG, a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown.
-MKG also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
-Period July 1-August 21 (sic), prompting us to wonder why MKG did not wait 10 days until end-Aug to provide a full Jul-Aug report.
-Most are our estimates on MKG data.
[] The Economist reports (with our comments):
-25mn visitors are forecast for Dubai’s Expo 2020 which opened last week, delayed because of covid. Dubai spent US$7bn on construction projects for the Expo.
-637mn domestic visitors were counted* for China’s Golden Week holiday, spending US$68.6bn* - which would indicate US$108* per-traveller, and US$15.38 per-traveller-per-day based on 7-days*. The forecast for this year is 650mn, which would be (a surprisingly small) +2.0%; no forecast given for spend.
*Notes:
-China (or The Economist) has never clarified how this figure is measured. It is too small to be all travellers (ie, such as those getting on a bus or train). Yet it cannot be arrivals in accommodation, for instance, because many, perhaps most, of those travellers in for this period would be VFRs. And research studies that might produce such a figure, are rare, and did not exist when these figures were first produced; our database starts in 1984.
-The per-traveller spend matches some earlier data from our database. We show US$93 in 2012.
-Some calculations show what appear to be low figures (such as per-traveller-per-day). There are often inexplicable results from mathematical manipulations, not just in China.
-Earlier data from China is much bigger; pre-covid, closer to 3bn. However, this may be a different measure, even if both are termed ‘domestic’ travel.

TBA Tracking: September travel stocks; more ups than downs!
4 October 2021
Commentary (category/sector/index numbers below):
-Good monthly growth; not big numbers but what commentators usually define as ‘solid’.
-US travel stocks just -2% below their pre-covid prices. Even if travel numbers are still greatly below 2019 levels, investors appear to have confidence that recovery may be close - start 2022?
-China’s airlines quoted in Hong Kong and Shanghai fell in HK; indicating that the HK market may be the problem rather than the companies. HK’s stockmarket fell -5% (although a few other markets in the world were as bad or worse).
-Of our ‘no-hopers’, Hertz +16% and Jet +38% had hopeful growth! Hertz has made structural changes, which make comparisons difficult, but it is almost back at its highs thru-2017, although end-2020 it was -90%. Jet is still -88% off its end-year peak in 2017.
-Part of the Hertz boost would also be the boost in car rentals, notably this past summer. Avis Budget, for instance, was +28%, fastest growth in the US.
-In general, airlines had a good month, albeit some puzzles - why ICAG +12%, and Lufthansa -2%?
-Also in general, travel-tech had a good month, apart from perennial loser, Trivago’s -13%.
-We place AirBnB in both hotels and travel-tech. It out-performed in both, and by the same growths in both - +8% for ABB, against +5% for each of the two sectors.
-Bad month for Las Vegas hotel groups, -11%. Is that a bad signal for leisure or meetings? Cruisers did well, +5%, so perhaps Vegas’s problem is meetings?
-Prices for China’s troubled Hainan travel group did not seem troubled - +7% in China, +4% in Hong Kong.
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +0.3%, Delta +5%, ICAG +12/12% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -2%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +14%, Easyjet -17%, Ryanair +3%, Southwest +3%, Spring China +3%, Wizz +3%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor +6%, AirBnB +8%, InterContinental +3%, Marriott +10%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +1%, Shangri-La -10%.
-Big travel groups. China United +3%, Flight Centre +31% (sic), TUI +2/2% (Frankfurt/London).
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +1%, Sands -18%, Wynn -17%.
-Planemakers. Airbus -1%, Boeing +0.2%, Embraer -1%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +11%, Fraport +10%, Guangzhou +14%.
-Cruisers. Carnival +4%, RCC +8%, Star -3%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirBnB +8%, Amadeus +10%, Booking +0.2%, Expedia +13%, Trip +4/1% (HK/NY).
-No-hopers. Hertz +16%, Jet India +38%, Norwegian +4%. See Commentary above.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt -4%, Hong Kong -5%, London -0.5%, Tokyo +5%, US (average of our four -4%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks), last month: +4%.Previous month: +4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -12%.
-World, last month: Airlines +4%, Hotels +1%, Others +6%.Previous month: Airlines -1%, Hotels -2%, Others +1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -23%, Hotels -9%, Others -11%.
-Regions, all sectors, last month: Asia Pacific +5%, Europe +4%, US +3%.Previous month: Asia Pacific +3%, Europe -3%, US +1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -14%, Europe -27%, US -2%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China, last month: Airlines +6%, Hotels +1%, Others +7%. Previous month: Airlines +2%, Hotels +1%, Others +6%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -3%, Hotels -8%, Others -32%.
-China, last month: +4%. Previous month: +11%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -2%.
-China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US), last month: +2%. Previous month: +9%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +2%.
-Europe, last month: Airlines +3%, Hotels +2%, Others +7%. Previous month: Airlines -5%, Hotels flat, Others -4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -42%, Hotels -20%, Others -20%.
-US, last month: Airlines +3%, Hotels +0.2%, Others +5%. Previous month: Airlines +0.1%, Hotels +2%, Others +2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -23%, Hotels -0.1%, Others +18%.
-Rest-of world, last month: +4%. Previous month: +10%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -15%.
-Travel-tech, last month: +5%.Previous month: -1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +13%.
-Stockmarkets, last month: *2%. Previous month: +3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +14%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index, last month: World 219, Asia Pacific 53, Europe 167, US 437. Previous month: World 206, Asia Pacific 51, Europe 163, US 404. End-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), last month 95. Previous month 93. End-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index, last month 166. Previous month 151. End-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Monthly All-World Market Indicators
1 October 2021
On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic, RPKs, YT-Jul: world +95.8%, AsPac +37.7%, Eur +166%, N America +319%. IATA/TBA-estimates.
[] China Southern Airlines seat sales YT-Aug +32.8%.
[] Germany visitor arrivals YT-Jul -55.6%.
[] Ryanair seat sales YT-Aug -20.4%.
[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, YT-Aug -86.5%.
[] US hotel occupancy YT-Aug +25.0%. STR.
[] US travel agency US$ sales YT-Aug +30.7%. ARC.

Travel business updates
30 September 2021
[] A PCW* study found:
-Two in five travellers (which we would interpret as 40%) expect to fly this year; actual bookings were 50% in 2020, 60% in 2019.
-Three in five (60%) plan a hotel stay; 55% 68%.
-(10%) have not decided their travel details.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
-Most are our estimates on PCW data.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-25 September (against comparable week in 2019, not 2020) occupancy 63.2% (-11.0%), average room rate US$133.69 (-2.0%)
-18 September 63.0% (-11.6%) US$131.04 (-2.6%)
-11 September 60.0% (-13.6%) US$130.82 (-1.4%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-August 61.0% (-8.4%) US$131.91 (+3.2%)
-July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] IATA* reports air traffic for August (comparisons with same period in 2019, not 2020, unless otherwise noted):
-Worldwide RPKs -56.0%, ASKs -46.2%, load factor 70.0% -15.6pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -78.3%, Europe -48.7%, North America -30.3%.
-International RPKs -68.8% - Asia Pacific -93.4%, Europe -55.9%, North America -59.0%.
-Domestic RPKs -32.2% - Australia -83.3%, Brazil -20.7%, China -57.0%, India -44.8%, Japan -59.8%, Russia +31.9%, US -13.2%.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.

Travel business updates
28 September 2021
[] Travel Mole reports Air Asia X’s quarterly results (Q not clarified, but we presume Apr-Jun):
-Lost -US$5.9bn +800%. Conversion from MR not given. Qualifications not given; loss presumed to be post-tax.
-Ninth consecutive quarterly loss.
-Revenue fell less, -20%.
[] STR* reports on Glasgow hotels:
-Booked hotel occupancy 87-89% over 1-11 November for the UN climate conference next month. Given the size of the conference and the city’s capacity, we forecast occupancy will to be 100% November 2-10. STR gives no indication of the other crucial measure - average room rate - and thus no comparison with pre-covid results.
-Then 80% on the last day of the conference.
-Remainder of the year ‘below’ 40%.
-Neighbouring Edinburgh has ‘several days’ above 50% over the event period. 
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel room rate and revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
27 September 2021
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -51.9%. 2. -67.1%. 3. -75.4%. 4. -33.0%. 5. -55.8%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-September 26. 1. -38.0%. 2. -55.9%. 3. -60.6%. 4. -16.0%. 5. -42.7%.
-September 19. 1. -39.4%. 2. -59.2%. 3. -61.7%. 4. -16.2%. 5. -45.6%.
-September 12. 1. -40.8%. 2. -59.6%. 3. -62.9%. 4. -21.1%. 5. -44.2%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-August. 1. -43.0%. 2. -60.1%. 3. -64.3%. 4. -24.3%. 5. -46.3%.
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
27 September 2021
[] Oceania Cruises* claims +60% bookings on September 15, first booking day for the Apr-Nov 2023 season. Previous record, March. Data not given for either, reducing the value of the claim.
*Notes: Owned by Norwegian Cruises, which has 28 ships, 60,000 berths.
[] Update on France’s visitor business*:
-June visitor spend +38.3%, ‑49.2% against 2019. July +21.3% ‑34.2%. August NA.
-Apr-Jun visitor spend +55.6%, ‑58.8% against 2019. For China it was -33.0% -67.0%. Germany +24.6% -64.4%. Italy +44.9% -77.9%. US +16.1% -67.6%. Other important destinations - Spain, UK - data NA.
-Air arrivals, see table.
*Notes: From Atout France, the name of its DMO.

Air arrivals Jan-Aug, % change*

From

France

Spain

Italy

China

-99.5

-99.7

-99.9

Germany

-79.2

-48.2

-71.7

Italy

-72.3

-68.5

na

Russia

-95.3

-95.5

-94.3

Spain

-73.7

na

-74.7

UK

-87.3

-85.7

-90.3

US

-81.9

-78.5

-83.6

Total

-81.0

-68.9

-81.8

Notes: *Against 2019. Source: Atout France.

Travel business updates
24 September 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-18 September (against comparable week in 2019, not 2020) occupancy 63.0% (-11.6%), average room rate US$131.04 (-2.6%)
-11 September 60.0% (-13.6%) US$130.82 (-1.4%)
-4 September 61.3% (+0.7%) US$132.94 (+9.4%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-August 61.0% (-8.4%) US$131.91 (+3.2%)
-July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates
23 September 2021
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in August at 3.59mn +320.4%, YTD 18.7mn -1.3%.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -52.5%. 2. -67.6%. 3. -75.9%. 4. -33.7%. 5. -56.4%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-September 19. 1. -39.4%. 2. -59.2%. 3. -61.7%. 4. -16.2%. 5. -45.6%.
-September 12. 1. -40.8%. 2. -59.6%. 3. -62.9%. 4. -21.1%. 5. -44.2%.
-September 5. 1. -40.7%. 2. -60.0%. 3. -62.3%. 4. -19.7%. 5. -45.8%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-August. 1. -43.0%. 2. -60.1%. 3. -64.3%. 4. -24.3%. 5. -46.3%.
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

World travel survey
22 September 2021
KI* reports on a travel survey:
-*79% of consumers in 10 outbound markets will book a leisure trip in the next 24 months. 45% will book a business trip. Note 1.
-54% rate vaccine passports as ‘very or extremely’ important in ‘reviving’ travel, 60% a fall in new covid cases in travel destinations.
-*40% will book longhaul travel destinations in next 24 months; 26% both short- and long-haul. Note 2.
-*69% plan Europe destinations for their next leisure trip. Note 3.
-*Travelling for vacation or visiting family was the biggest reason for 52% of US travellers to travel more. Note 4.
-*27% of UK travellers plan Europe destinations, 23% North and Latin America. Note 5.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

People planning trips* in next 24 months,% share


Market

Leisure

Business

Australia

78

19

Brazil

83

58

China

93

77

France

62

35

Germany

76

41

India

79

63

Italy

79

41

UAE

89

62

UK

85

24

US

69

31

Notes: *Of those surveyed. Source: Kaleido Intelligence.

Travel business updates
21 September 2021
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for August: air tickets sold US$3.2bn +328%; average US roundtrip ticket US$398, which we calculate is +24.0%; passenger trips 15.2mn +151% (domestic 10.9mn +145%, international 4.3mn +168%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$6.36mn +249%; EMD transactions 129.7k +265%.
-For the month (compared with July), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold -20.0%; passenger trips -10% (domestic -10%, international -10%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
20 September 2021
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 157 in July. Index previous month 165. Index end-2020 135; end-2019 157.
  Comments:
-All, last month: -8%.Previous month: -4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +11%.
-Yet another bad month. Only one of our 10 grew (eDreams); the previous month it was just two.
-Worse, all except eDreams performed worse than their local stockmarket.
-Heavies. AirBnB -6%, Amadeus -7%, Booking -0.5%, Expedia -2%, Trip -22/27% (HK/NY).
-For the 2nd month, China-based Trip fell heavily in both its markets, making us wonder if this is related to anti-China movement in the US, and politically-related negatives in Hong Kong.
-Newly-listed AirBnB had the fastest growth January, the biggest falls in February and March, more falls in April and May, growth in June, then yet another fall last month. We now believe the market thinks its issue price was over-priced.
-No fewer than four are still below their base-price in our listing - Trip (HK/NY), Trip Advisor, Trivago. Recovery looks possible this year for Trip HK and Trip Advisor, but with non-stop bad news, perhaps not.
-(We also note comparison with end-2019 prices. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)
-Now three of our eight stocks (9th and 10th, AirBnB and Trip HK, were not quoted pre-covid) have not recovered their end-2019 prices - Amadeus and Lastminute were joined last month by Trip US.
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes one company quoted in Asia Pacific, three in Europe, and six in the US - one of which, Trip-US, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Trip also listed in Hong Kong starting Apr 21. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip-US, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago, end-2020 for AirBnB, Apr 21 for Trip-HK.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-21


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Jul 21

Jun 21

Dec 20

Dec 19

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

AirBnB

144

153

147

na

na

-6.0

1.2

100

63

Amadeus

55.2

59.3

59.6

72.8

40.7

-6.9

-1.6

167

106

Booking╪

2178

2188

2227

2054

1275

-0.4

1.2

191

122

eDreams

6.98

6.79

4.16

4.27

1.90

2.8

-1.6

423

269

Expedia

161

164

132

108

124

-1.7

0.3

188

120

Lastminute

38.6

40.5

26.0

46.0

13.1

-4.7

1.5

258

164

Trip-HK

215

276

na

na

na

-22.1

-9.9

80

51

Trip-US╪

25.9

35.5

33.7

33.5

46.8

-26.9

1.2

55

35

Trip Advisor

38.0

40.3

28.8

30.4

NA

-5.8

1.2

82

52

Trivago

2.94

3.31

2.42

2.62

na

-11.2

1.2

25

16

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Travel business updates
17 September 2021
[] PCW* reports on Asia Pacific travel:
-Travel bookings forecast to be US$184bn -58% in 2020. Sic; forecast for 2020 in report published this month.
-Forecast to reach its 2019 size (US$444bn) by 2024.
-Booking shares 2024. Airline supplier/direct 33%, OTA 30%, offline 37%. Accommodation supplier/direct 9%, OTA 50%, offline 41%.
-Booking shares 2020. Airline supplier/direct 30%, OTA 25%, offline 45%. Accommodation supplier/direct 8%, OTA 45%, offline 47%.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-11 September (against comparable week in 2019, not 2020) occupancy 60.0% (-13.6%), average room rate US$130.82 (-1.4%)
-4 September 61.3% (+0.7%) US$132.94 (+9.4%)
-28 August 61.0% (-8.4%) US$131.91 (+3.2%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] GD* reports 57 company deals done (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the travel business in August, -17.4% over the previous month. GD sometimes compares with average of previous 12 months, which is a better measure.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ - which may be only part travel-business.
[] According to GD*, the decision by Delta Airlines to increase its healthcare premium for employees not vaccinated against covid to US$200 monthly caused a growth in influencer conversations around ‘vaccines’ on Delta’s dashboard. It was +150% June-August.
  Plus (our estimates on GD data):
-280 tweets, 330 influencers.
-For most of 2020, growth in Delta job postings was single-digit. This year, listings grew from 101 jobs in January to 474 in August. Job postings grew +55% in Q3 against Q2.
*Notes: GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.

Inmarsat travel survey
16 September 2021
Findings from an Inmarsat* survey on travel plans include:
-*60% of passengers feel happy about flying by year-end; it was 47% in 2020. Note 1.
-*Highest are those in Greece, 29%; Australia 29%; Brazil 20%. Note 2.
-*Passengers who expect to travel less frequently has dropped -6%. Note 3.
-*84% say their travel habits ‘are likely’ to change post-covid. Note 4.
-*37% were less confident, about covid matters, than taking a bus compared to a flight. Highest are those in Brazil 70%, India 48%, UAE 42%. Note 5.
-40% were less confident, about covid matters, than taking the metro compared to a flight.
-*Top-3 barriers to travel were quarantines 51%, unexpected border closures 41%, confusing safety protocols 36%. Note 6.
-Post-covid, ‘passenger service’ regarded as most-important factor for flight enjoyment for 46% - highest India 67%, Brazil 67%, Indonesia 59%, China 57%.
-84% say covid vaccine passports are a good idea; 50% say they should be used now, 34% when everyone ‘has been offered the vaccine’. 16% say covid vaccine passports are not fair on those who refuse vaccination, or are worried about giving too much personal data, or had no opinion.
-62% want all airlines to follow the same hygiene practices; highest, Australia 63%.
-47% say digital covid passports are a pre-flight confidence booster; it was 37% in 2020. In Greece 36% have concerns about digital covid passports, in terms of personal data and fairness; in the UAE 12%. Japan, Canada, Germany say they are unfair.
-41% say inflight WiFi has become more important post-covid, 30% say inflight entertainment. Inflight WiFi is the most important factor for the US 55%, Canada 41%.
-72% +12% are satisfied with airlines’ responses to covid.
-50% say the reputation of airlines is key to boosting confidence of passengers.
-*32% +8%, the highest share, in the Americas will travel only with ‘trusted’ airlines. Note 7.
-28% of passengers aged 18-44 said they were more likely to fly only with ‘trusted airlines’, to 20% of passengers aged 45-65.
-In the Americas, passengers say that inflight WiFi, passenger service, inflight entertainment, are more important now than before covid. In EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), they say free baggage and extra legroom is more important.
-Passengers aged 18-44 place more importance on loyalty programs, sustainability, airport locations, ticket prices.
*Notes:
-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
15 September 2021
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -53.1%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -76.3%. 4. -34.4%. 5. -56.9%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-September 12. 1. -40.8%. 2. -59.6%. 3. -62.9%. 4. -21.1%. 5. -44.2%.
-September 5. 1. -40.7%. 2. -60.0%. 3. -62.3%. 4. -19.7%. 5. -45.8%.
-August 29. 1. -43.0%. 2. -60.1%. 3. -64.3%. 4. -24.3%. 5. -46.3%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in August for US hotel companies was 4,911 -3.4% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +7.4%. Our database shows: their end-2020 Index was 4,574 -13.2%, end-2019 5,270 +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, published in the current editions of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know:
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 200. Previous month 193; end-2020 178; end-2019 195.
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 154. Previous month: 154; end-2020 146; end-2019 211.
-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 206, Asia Pacific 51, Europe 163, US 404. Previous month: World 204, Asia Pacific 48, Europe 169, US 396. End-2020 World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+AirBnB, Amadeus) was at 151. Previous month 157; end-2020 139; end-2019 160.
-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China travel companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 93. Previous month 86; end-2020 95; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Travel business updates
14 September 2021
[] STR* reports on hotels in August:
-Australia. Occupancy 30.8%, average room rate US$120 (A$163.22).
-Dubai. 58.4% US$102 (Dh373.61).
-London. 56.8% US$154 (£112.58).
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] Findings from an OAG* survey on US travellers include:
-68% are interested in or want domestic vaccine passports, and 70% believe vaccine passports should be required for international travel.
-56% of unvaccinated travellers will not get vaccinated even if vaccination was required to travel.
-Domestic air capacity June-August +81%.
-70% of consumers have booked flights. Of the 30% balance, 40% are waiting for vaccination rates and regulations to improve, 30% are waiting for vaccine passports to be required.
-15% of non-vaccinated travellers plan to get vaccinated before their next trip.
-62% of business travellers said their company is planning air travel in the next 12 months, for 20% their company has no plans, for 18% has not specified plans.
-Of the 38% who said they usually fly for their holidays, only 40% did so in 2020. But this year 85% did. Unclear finding because survey taken after main Jul/Aug holiday season, and OAG was reporting ‘plans’.
-For Thanksgiving week (TG day is November 25; OAG does not date the ‘week’) domestic seats booked currently +47%.
-‘Nearly’ 50% are booking 2-4 weeks in advance, 50% are booking at least two months in advance. Not clear if the (tiny) balance is between 4-8 weeks in advance.
-88% forecast ticket prices will increase in the next 12 months.
*Notes:
-UK-based OAG (formerly/formally Axio Aviation Holdings; nee Official Airlines Guide) provides comprehensive data on airline flights from 900 airlines and 4000 airports. Its flight-status database provides 35mn flight status updates daily, and processes 1.4mn requests. It is owned by UK-based Vitruvian Partners, a private-equity firm.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Our outlook
13 September 2021
The following extracted from our input for an external report:
1 What is your assessment of performance in your business May-August compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Worse.
2 What have been the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] May-August?
Reduction of covid infections in main travel-generating markets (except special-case China). Important problem with question - 'expect...that time of year'. Giant difference between pre-covid and 2020; our answer is compared with pre-covid expectations.
3 What are prospects for performance in your business September-December compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Worse.
4 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] September-December?
Continued improvements in falling covid infections. Important problem with question - 'expect...that time of year'. Giant difference between pre-covid and 2020; our answer is compared with pre-covid expectations.
5 Is the current vaccination rollout contributing to the effective resumption of [the travel business] in your country in 2021?
Partly. Our answer is just to continue survey; we do not have a 'country'.
6 Has your country experienced growth in [the international travel business] this year?
Yes. Our answer is just to continue survey; we do not have a 'country'.
7 When do you expect a rebound in [the international travel business] in your country?
By Q2 2022. Our answer is just to continue survey; we do not have a 'country'.
8 When do you expect [the international travel business] to return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels in your country?
2022. Our answer is just to continue survey; we do not have a 'country'.
9 What are the three main factors weighing on the recovery of [the international travel business]? (Selection from choices provided.)
Travel restrictions. Slow virus containment. Lack of coordinated response among countries.
10 What are the three main factors that could contribute to an effective recovery of [the international travel business] in your destination? (Selection from choices provided.)
Major lifting of travel restrictions. Rapid and widespread vaccination roll-out. Coordinated action among countries on travel protocols. Our answer is just to continue survey; we do not have a 'destination'.

Travel business updates
10 September 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-Occupancy week through September 4 61.3% +30pts.
-Labor Day weekend, Friday/Saturday 4/5th, occupancy 77%. For LD weekend in 2019 occupancy ‘nearly the same’.
-On total-availability, which includes temporarily-closed hotels, weekly occupancy was 58.8%. Temporarily-closed rooms 55,000 +14.6% against week before.
*Notes: STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-4 September (against comparable week in 2019, not 2020) occupancy 61.3% (+0.7%), average room rate US$132.94 (+9.4%)
-28 August 61.0% (-8.4%) US$131.91 (+3.2%)
-21 August 63.7% (-9.1%) US$135.77 (+5.1%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates
9 September 2021
[] PCW* reports on the Russia travel market:
-Total bookings 2020 US$15bn (quoted in US$), this year US$18bn, 2022 US$24bn, 2023 US$29bn, 2024 US$34bn.
-Forecasts online travel revenue this year US$8.4bn +16%.
-30% of small travel agencies have shut down. Period not given.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -53.7%. 2. -68.5%. 3. -76.8%. 4. -35.0%. 5. -57.5%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-September 5. 1. -40.7%. 2. -60.0%. 3. -62.3%. 4. -19.7%. 5. -45.8%.
-August 29. 1. -43.0%. 2. -60.1%. 3. -64.3%. 4. -24.3%. 5. -46.3%.
-August 22. 1. -41.5%. 2. -58.1%. 3. -63.5%. 4. -23.1%. 5. -44.2%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
8 September 2021
[] VDR (German Business Travel Association), reports on business travel in Germany in 2020:
-Spend US$12.0bn -81.7% (€10.1bn), lowest since VDR started collecting data in 2001.
-Trips 32.7mn -83.3%.
-3.3mn -74.9% business travellers.
-We calculate that would mean 9.91 trips per traveller, which looks high. But 14.9 trips in 2019, which looks even more unrealistic. (Fall in trips-per-person in 2020 would have been -33.5%.)
-83% of trips were domestic.
-28.6% of SMEs, and 24.2% of public-sector organisations, stopped all business trips.
-80% of larger companies, 72% of smaller ones, 81% in the public sector forecast a permanent 30% reduction in business travel. Period not given.
-84% of those responsible for business travel will include working from anywhere, including home-office, in their planning.
[] JR* reports on travel ticketing:
-Digital ticketing transactions worldwide forecast to be 33.8bn in 2023, above pre-covid Levels. Ticketing is all - air as well as ground transport and events.
-JR reports data for this year at 20.8bn. As the year still has three months left, we presume this also is a forecast although JR reports it as actual.
-JR reports this 34bn as +62%. We calculate +63% (62.5%), although that is +27.5% annually. JR reports growth ‘will be driven by’ growth in travel, and recovery in events ticketing.
-Bus/metro share 33% in 2023, the biggest segment.
-Contactless ticketing share 23% in 2026. JR reports as actual but obviously this is a forecast; it reports 10% share in 2019.
*Notes: JR is UK-based Juniper Research.

Travel business updates
7 September 2021
[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts China’s ‘outbound tourism market’ AAGR (annual average growth rate) will be +32% over 2021-26.
*Notes:
-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-We presume this is outbound travel trips, not spend, and all-travel not just leisure travel.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] ACI* forecasts for this year:
-$108bn -54.6% reduced revenue for airports this year. ACI does not clarify, so we assume: US$ (although ACI is based in Canada, it usually reports for an international audience; comparison is with 2019.
-5bn fewer passengers compared with its pre-covid forecast.
-Passengers -47.3%, compared with 2019.
-Domestic passengers 3.3bn 61.4% of 2019 levels.
-Passenger traffic to reach 2019 level by end-2023, and 20 years to reach previously-projected levels.
*Notes:
-ACI = Airports Council International. Canada-based association for commercial airports.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
6 September 2021
[] IATA* reports air traffic for July (comparisons with same period in 2019, not 2020):
-Worldwide RPKs -53.1%, ASKs -45.2%, load factor 73.1% -12.4pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -62.7%, Europe -56.5%, North America -28.5%.
-International RPKs -73.6% - Asia Pacific -94.2%, Europe -64.2%, North America -62.1%.
-Domestic RPKs -15.6% - Australia -75.4%, Brazil -19.6%, China -2.5%, India -59.4%, Japan -53.9%, Russia +28.9%, US -7.7%.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
[] PCW* reports Q1 (Apr-Jun) operating loss for Spain-based OTA Edreams Odigeo was US$2.3mn (€1.9mn) -14.7%.
*Notes: PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.

Travel business updates
3 September 2021
[] Monthly All-World Market Indicators
On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
-Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Jun: world +106%, AsPac +39.6%, Europe +204%, North America +332%. IATA/TBA-estimates.
-China Southern Airlines seat sales YT-Jul +54.2%.
-Europe airport passengers, total YT-Jun -36.2%. ACI.
-Ryanair seat sales YT-Jul -37.9%.
-Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, YT-Jul -88.7%.
-US hotel occupancy YT-Jul +28.6%. STR.
-US travel agency US$ sales YT-Jul +17.9%. ARC.
-Visitor arrivals YT-May: AsPac -86.2%, Europe -63.1%, North America -42.1%, world -65.1%. WTO.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-28 August occupancy 61.0% (-8.4%), average room rate US$131.91 (+3.2%)
-21 August 63.7% (-9.1%) US$135.77 (+5.1%)
-14 August 65.7% (-8.4%) US$139.18 (+5.9%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Airline stock prices
2 September 2021
Our findings on airline stock prices shows a surprising difference with those of IATA*, which we published on Monday.
  We publish end-month data, and IATA the 25th, but these would normally not make a difference greater than 1/2 points. IATA now matches our covid-related measure. Previously, IATA compared its current prices with those of 12-months earlier. We have always compared with the date we count as ‘pre-covid’, end-2019. IATA now does the same.
  We presume that IATA tracks more airlines than we do*. We track only the larger airlines and/or international ones. These total 37.
  The main points are:
-Our all-world count, although different, is reasonably close to IATA’s. And particularly for the change since end-2019 - IATA’s -27.5% compares with our -26.7%.
-Our AsPac coverage shows better results than IATA’s. Ours includes China’s airline quotes in both China and Hong Kong. These airlines have been recovering more quickly, and if IATA chooses just one market, presumably China, growth would be less - resulting in a bigger fall.
-For Europe, our results are worse than IATA’s, with no simple explanation. We double-count ICAG (in its Spain HQ, and in London).
-For North America our results are also worse. This could be a numerical explanation. We count only eight quoted airlines in the region, yet there are many more, all smaller ones.
*Notes:
-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-IATA response: ‘IATA use Reuters as the source for stock price index, therefore we do not create our own share price index for regions. There might be differences in weights depending the airlines, as well as in the coverage of airlines.’

Airline share prices

IATA

TBA

Item

Growth,%

Growth,%

Aug25

Aug31

Jul31

Notes:

1mth

end19

1mth

end19

1mth

end19

World

0.7

-27.5

-1.0

-26.7

-6.7

-25.5

Asia Pacific

2.2

-27.0

6.3

-4.7

-11.1

-9.5

Europe

-1.7

-27.6

-5.2

-42.1

-1.4

-39.6

North America

1.6

-25.2

-0.9

-37.7

-5.4

-37.3

Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association, TBA = Travel Business Analyst. Source: IATA, TBA.

TBA Tracking: August travel stocks; any growth is good
1 September 2021
Commentary (category/sector/index numbers below):
-These averages are hiding still-too-many falls - see Sector results below.
-Worst region was Europe - see Sector results below.
-Too many company falls in many sectors. In the US for example, four of our seven airlines fell, 3/8 hotels, 6/14 Others. In Europe, 9/10 2/4, 9/9. AsPac was good by comparison.
-Catch-up to pre-covid prices seems like always ‘tomorrow’ - it never arrives. Even China, which in one month actually caught up, has now fallen back to below-2019 prices.
-Furthest away from catching up is Europe, -30% on its end-2019 prices, then AsPac -19%, RoW -18%, US -6%.
-Some big-company big falls - Amadeus -6%, Expedia -10%, ICAG -6%, Lufthansa -11%.
-FSAs (full-service-airlines) do better than NFAs (no-frills-airlines). We find that hard to understand. Does the market think FSAs have stronger finances? That might be true, but the other element is costs, traffic growth, flexibility, and so on.
-China goes fast again. Airlines +7-12% but faster for companies in other sectors: BTG and Jinjiang +24% +13%; China United +24%.
-Travel-tech big variance - even for Trip, up +5% in Hong Kong, +18% in New York. Overall, a disappointing -1%, although the sector is still +4% on end-2018 prices.
-AirBnB finally tops its end-2020 listing price.
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +8%, Delta +1%, ICAG -5/-6% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -11%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +12%, Easyjet -6%, Norwegian -10%, Ryanair -4%, Southwest -1%, Spring China +12%, Wizz -2%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor -2%, AirBnB +8%, InterContinental -2%, Marriott -7%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +4%, Shangri-La -1%.
-Big travel groups. China United +24%, Flight Centre +9%, TUI -7/-7% (Frankfurt/London).
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +14%, Sands +5%, Wynn +3%.
-Planemakers. Airbus flat, Boeing -3%, Embraer +26%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -3%, Fraport -2%, Guangzhou +8%.
-Cruisers. Carnival +12%, RCC +8%, Star +11%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirBnB +8%, Amadeus -6%, Booking +6%, Expedia -10%, Trip +5/18% (HK/NY).
-No-hopers. Hertz -10%, Jet India -16%, Norwegian -10%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +2%, Hong Kong -0.3%, London +1%, Tokyo +2%, US (average of our four +2%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks), last month: +4%.Previous month: -6%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -16%.
-World, last month: Airlines -1%, Hotels -2%, Others +1%.Previous month: Airlines -7%, Hotels -7%, Others -4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -27%, Hotels -13%, Others -17%.
-Regions, all sectors, last month: Asia Pacific +3%, Europe -3%, US +1%.Previous month: Asia Pacific -9%, Europe -2%, US -6%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -19%, Europe -30%, US -6%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China, last month: Airlines +2%, Hotels +1%, Others +6%. Previous month: Airlines -10%, Hotels -8%, Others -10%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -12%, Hotels -9%, Others -35%.
-China, last month: +11%. Previous month: -18%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -4%.
-China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US), last month: +9%. Previous month: -16%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -1%.
-Europe, last month: Airlines -5%, Hotels flat, Others -4%. Previous month: Airlines -1%, Hotels -2%, Others -3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -42%, Hotels -22%, Others -26%.
-US, last month: Airlines +0.1%, Hotels +2%, Others +2%. Previous month: Airlines -9%, Hotels -9%, Others +1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -26%, Hotels -1%, Others +10%.
-Rest-of world, last month: +10%. Previous month: +4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -18%.
-Travel-tech, last month: -1%.Previous month: -8%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +7%.
-Stockmarkets, last month: +3%. Previous month: -0.4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +21%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index, last month: World 206, Asia Pacific 51, Europe 163, US 404. Previous month: World 207, Asia Pacific 48, Europe 169, US 400. End-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), last month 93. Previous month 86. End-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index, last month 151. Previous month 157. End-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel business updates
31 August 2021
[] STR* reports gross operating profit for US hotels for July* at +111% compared with 2019.
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-We note that a single-month comparison for such a measure as profit is often misleading. STR preferably should show YTD data.
[] PCW* reports on ‘Generation Z’ travellers* (hereafter, GZTs):
-*Expedia reports that 66% of GZTs plan travel to make up for trips not taken during the covid pandemic. Note 1.
-GZ consumers are using OTAs 31% more than pre-covid.
-*33% of GZTs booked a dynamic package in 2020, which PCW reports is the highest share of any age category. Note 2.
-28% of GZTs are not members of a travel loyalty program. However, 28% (sic) are OTA loyalty members; for millennials*, the share is 33%.
-10% of GZTs reserved a hotel room in 2020 through Google's booking function.
-46% of GZTs say they are likely to spend US$100 annually to join a travel subscription service.
-*57% of GZTs say safety is their top concern for travel. Note 3.
-*38% of GZ consumers say ‘unique experiences’ have the greatest impact on their vacations. Note 4.
-*15% of GZTs say they budget US$51-100 per-person-per-day for ‘experiences’ on a trip. Note 5.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic, some of which are important for proper interpretation of the report, are too long to be practically shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details on request.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -54.2%. 2. -69.0%. 3. -77.3%. 4. -35.7%. 5. -58.0%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-August 29. 1. -43.0%. 2. -60.1%. 3. -64.3%. 4. -24.3%. 5. -46.3%.
-August 22. 1. -41.5%. 2. -58.1%. 3. -63.5%. 4. -23.1%. 5. -44.2%.
-August 15. 1. -41.1%. 2. -56.4%. 3. -62.4%. 4. -24.0%. 5. -43.4%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Airline stock prices
30 August 2021
IATA* reports on growth of airline stock prices at Aug 25*. Findings include:
-World +0.7% over past month, -27.5% against end-2019.
-Asia Pacific +2.2%, -27.0%.
-Europe -1.7%, -27.6%.
-North America +1.6%, -25.2%.
*Notes:
-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-Travel Business Analyst to report its figures for end-August this Wednesday.

Travel business updates
27 August 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-21 August occupancy 63.7% (-9.1%), average room rate US$135.77 (+5.1%)
-14 August 65.7% (-8.4%) US$139.18 (+5.9%)
-7 August 68.0% (-8.3%) US$140.97 (+5.1%
End-month 7-day periods:
-July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] PCW* reports on Eastern Europe:
  (We question PCW’s use of 2020 as a benchmark as results were substantially affected by covid. We believe this makes some data near useless for ongoing analysis.)
-The supplier share of the online travel market forecast to grow from 58% in 2020 to 59% in 2024, with OTAs therefore falling from 42% to 41%.
-But PCW’s $ figures* are forecast to grow greatly from US$6bn for OTAs, US$8bn for suppliers in 2020, to US$14/20bn in 2024.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.

Travel business updates
26 August 2021
[] MKG* has reported on hotel results in France for this summer. It has chosen the period Jul 1-Aug 21 (sic), making us wonder why it did not wait 10 days until end-Aug to provide a full Jul-Aug report?
  Main findings (based on period noted above, and against 2020 unless stated otherwise):
-Turnover +47% (-20.4% against summer 2019).
-Occupancy 58% +13pts (-16pts).
-Jan-Jul turnover -60.7% against 2019.
-5-star occupancy +20.9%; figure not given.
-Economy/2-star occupancy 65.4%; change not given.
-Paris, one-third of all-France turnover (with the surrounding Ile-de-France) -56.2% against 2019.
-Occupancy. Paris 41.7% (17% in 2020, 80% 2019). Mediterranean 80% (70% 86%).
-Mediterranean turnover +8.7% against 2019, occupancy +4.1%.
*Notes:
-MKG, a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown.
-MKG also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy, room rate, and turnover, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -54.8%. 2. -69.5%. 3. -77.8%. 4. -36.3%. 5. -58.6%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-August 22. 1. -41.5%. 2. -58.1%. 3. -63.5%. 4. -23.1%. 5. -44.2%.
-August 15. 1. -41.1%. 2. -56.4%. 3. -62.4%. 4. -24.0%. 5. -43.4%.
-August 8. 1. -34.8%. 2. -51.4%. 3. -54.8%. 4. -16.5%. 5. -41.1%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
23 August 2021
[] GD* forecasts on Japan:
-The country’s ‘tourism market’ will be US$3.1bn by 2026. RM gives no definition for ‘tourism market’ but its editorial comments indicate this is inbound travel only. We do not know if it includes segments other than leisure travel.
-A +11.65% AAGR (annual average growth rate) over 2020-6. RM describes this as ‘staggering’ but we would describe it as ‘seriously misleading’ because the period includes a fall of -77.2% in 2020 - according to our database. Any organisation that includes 2020 in data, and does not adjust for it, or comment on it, seems irresponsible.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] Travel Mole reports the US government will limit some Chinese airlines to 40% passenger capacity for four weeks. This comes after China imposed flight sanctions on United Airlines after it said five passengers who travelled San Francisco-Shanghai tested covid positive.
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled:
-July 3.15mn +459.3%.
-Jan-Jul 15.1mn -16.5%
-H1 at 12.0mn -31.7%.

US travel business updates
20 August 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-14 August occupancy 65.7% (-8.4%), average room rate US$139.18 (+5.9%)
-7 August 68.0% (-8.3%) US$140.97 (+5.1%
-31 July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for July: air tickets sold US$4.1bn +947%; average US roundtrip ticket US$458, which we calculate is +42.7%; passenger trips 16.8mn +229% (domestic 12.1mn +230%, international 4.7mn +226%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$7.16mn +311%; EMD transactions 151.6k +366%.
-For the month (compared with June), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: passenger trips -4% (domestic -2%, international -10%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Hotel business updates
19 August 2021
Two reports - on Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott.
[] Hyatt Hotels plans to buy Apple Leisure Group* from affiliates of KKR and KSL Capital for US$2.7bn in cash. The deal is expected to be finalised in Q4.
  Related developments:
-Hyatt forecasts it will have sold US$1.5bn of its hotel ownership this year, which will make US$3bn total since it announced its asset-sale program in 2017. It targets selling US$2bn of its hotel ownership by end-2024. At that time, 80% of its earnings will come from fees.
-The company expects to fund 80% of the ALG purchase with US$1.0bn from its cash reserves and new finance, and the balance with US$500mn from equity financing. It has a US$1.7bn financing commitment from the JPMorgan-Chase bank. And cash earned from its US$2bn asset-sale program are expected to be used to pay debt.
*Notes:
-Despite the name, ALG is unrelated to the Apple/Mac computer company.
-ALG provides management for resorts, most in the US but also in nine other countries. It has 100/33,000 resorts/rooms. Its loyalty program has 110,000 members, a +18% AAGR (annual average growth rate) over the last five years.
[] Hotel News Now reports outlook from hotel CEOs. Unfortunately, measures are not comparable one company to the other. Includes:
-Hilton. June occupancy 70%, average room rate 80% of 2019 levels. July occupancy 90% (ARR not given). Group occupancy (period not given) +20pts compared to Q1, June 50% of 2019 levels. Group bookings for 2022 are at rates above 2019 peaks. In Q4 forecast back to 70% of 2019 levels.
-Hyatt. ‘Business transient’ 40% recovered worldwide. (We do not know what this means.) In the US, urban markets such as Chicago, New York, San Francisco, Washington 20-30% recovered; other urban markets 50% recovered.
Group business ARR booked in Q2 for 2022 is +5% compared to 2019.
-Marriott. June corporate bookings +23% over May, +27% for most of July (presumed to be over June). Group advance bookings in the US -29% in June compared to 2019, -56% in March compared to 2019. ARR for group bookings flat for Q4, +3% for all-2022 (presumed to be compared to bookings at same time in 2019, but not clear).

Travel business updates
18 August 2021
[] GD* reports 69 -6.8% company deals done (sales, investments, etc) by companies in July. The comparison is with June; GD sometimes compares with average of previous 12 months, which is a better measure.
*Notes: GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.
[] An IATA* study found 52% of respondents expect air travel demand to recover to 2019 levels in 2023.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
[] STR* reports on Tokyo hotels following the Summer Olympics:
-July occupancy 47.2%, highest since February 2020.
-Occupancy 60.5% on the night before the opening ceremony (July 22) and 60.6% on the night.
-Occupancy 45.4% on the night of the closing ceremony (August 8), 29.2% the night after.
*Notes: STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -55.4%. 2. -70.0%. 3. -78.3%. 4. -37.1%. 5. -59.3%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-August 15. 1. -41.1%. 2. -56.4%. 3. -62.4%. 4. -24.0%. 5. -43.4%.
-August 8. 1. -34.8%. 2. -51.4%. 3. -54.8%. 4. -16.5%. 5. -41.1%.
-August 1. 1. -33.6%. 2. -48.5%. 3. -55.8%. 4. -14.6%. 5. -38.8%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-July. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
17 August 2021
[] GD* reports on North America:
-2020 arrivals fell -67%, spend -74.1%; totals not given. Figures from our database (via WTO*) show -68.1% (46.7mn), -61.4% (US$98.4bn).
-GD forecasts domestic travel (presumed within each of the three markets, not within NAm) will recover in 2022, arrivals in 2024, spend 2025.   
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-At press time, we had not received an answer from GD to our request for clarifications.
[] Omio* reports:
-40% of those in France would change their mode of transport if it was better for the environment, compared with 45% of those in Germany, 57% in the UK.
-35% of travellers in France would accept a trip up to 30 minutes longer if that was better for the climate, 25% up to 60 minutes.
  The problem is, of course, that most travellers do not change - even if they say they will change.
*Notes: Go Euro Travel, doing business as Omio, is an online travel website based in Berlin, Germany. Founded in 2012 by Naren Shaam. Source Wikipedia.
[] STR* on hotels in July:
-Berlin occupancy 48.5%, average room rate US$90.24 (€75.80).
-Sydney 18.7%, US$108.15 (A$147.08).
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates
16 August 2021
[] GD* reports on VFR (visiting friends or relatives) travel:
-2021-5 AAGR (annual average growth rate) forecast to be +17% (GD rounded), leisure +16.4%. Other categories not given.
-VFR departures ‘by 2025’ 242mn. Presumed same period, 2021-25; not clarified. Other categories not given.
-VFR 2nd biggest holiday-type in 2019, 46% share. Sun-and-beach 58%. GD also uses the term ‘getaways’; not clear if this is a shorter-period version of departures, or the same.
-VFR ‘prioritised’ by 53% of travellers in the US, Australia 52%, Canada 49%, India 64%, Saudi Arabia 60%. Other markets not given; these selected by GD because highest shares. Meaning of ‘prioritised’ in this sense not given.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] STR* and TE* forecast US hotels 2021 occupancy will be 54.7%, average room rate US$115.50. In November 2020 they forecast 52.2% (which we calculated was +23.7% on their contemporary forecast for 2020), US$109.21 (+5.4%).
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
-TE = Tourism Economics, US-based. Part of Oxford Economics, UK-based, and unrelated to Oxford University.

US travel business updates
13 August 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-7 August occupancy 68.0% (-8.3%), average room rate US$140.97 (+5.1%
-31 July 2021 70.1% (-6.2%) US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-24 July 71.4% (-7.8%) US$141.75 (+4.0%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -56.1%. 2. -70.6%. 3. -78.8%. 4. -37.9%. 5. -59.9%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-August 8. 1. -34.8%. 2. -51.4%. 3. -54.8%. 4. -16.5%. 5. -41.1%.
-August 1. 1. -33.6%. 2. -48.5%. 3. -55.8%. 4. -14.6%. 5. -38.8%.
-July 25. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports on the US travel market:
-US travellers average spend per resident was US$3505 in 2020. We believe GD is measuring per-traveller, not per-resident - which would mean a total spend around US$1 quintillion, whereas WTO puts the 2020 total at just under US$40bn, 3000-times smaller!
-After the US, Canada US$1576, Colombia US$1286.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
12 August 2021
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in July for US hotel companies was 5,086 +1.9% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +11.2%. Our database shows: their end-2020 Index was 4,574 -13.2%, end-2019 5,270 +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 193. Previous month 208; end-2020 178; end-2019 195.
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 154. Previous month: 161; end-2020 146; end-2019 211.
-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 204, Asia Pacific 48, Europe 169, US 396. Previous month: World 208, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 171, US 402. End-2020 World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+AirBnB, Amadeus) was at 157. Previous month 165; end-2020 139; end-2019 160.
-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China travel companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 86. Previous month 102; end-2020 95; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Travel business updates
11 August 2021
[] STR* on India hotels:
-Daily occupancy 20-30% in early June. End June ‘closer to 35%’, and 26 June 50.5%.
-‘Most’ days in July 40-60%; peak 17 July at 63.2%. 
-Delhi 79.7% on 17 July, highest in 2021.
-Mumbai 77.9% on 26 June, highest in 2021.
*Notes: STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
[] Travel Mole reports that China’s airline seat capacity fell -32% in one week end-July; world capacity -6.5%.
[] Ras Al Khaimah* reports:
-‘Exceptional growth’ in visitors. Not amplified, but see below.
-*Visitor arrivals -25% (period not given), which it reports as ‘3x less severe’ than the world average. Note 1.
-*Targets 3mn visitors in 2029. Note 2.
-*Plans to grow hotel room inventory by 70% ‘over the next few years’, with global brands including Anantara, InterContinental, Movenpick, Radisson. Note 3.
-*Plans US$132mn (quoted as £96mn) investment in the visitor business. Note 4.
-*RAK reports that (all) this investment will be in ‘sustainable’ projects. Note 5.
*Notes:
-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates
10 August 2021
[] Dusit Thani H1 revenue was US$57.3mn (Bht1.90bn) +15.3%. Unlike other hotel companies, Dusit said it closed most of its hotels to prevent the spread of covid, and not because there was little business.
[] Dubai-based Vista, which provides worldwide business flights, reports on H1:
-Annual subscription hours 8000 +67% (and +41% over 2019).
-Flight hours also +67%; Middle East +153%, North America +76%, Europe +41%. No other data to put these figures into perspective.
-North America share 71%. Ditto.
[] STR* reports on Australia hotels:
-For the week through 1 August, STR’s ‘Sydney Surrounding’ market (including the city) occupancy was 15.6-15.8%, lowest in 2021.  Comparisons with other periods not given.
-For the same week Adelaide was 30.0%, Brisbane 44.7%, Canberra 21.2%, Darwin 65.4% (it was 82.0% in late May; that may be a daily figure, not weekly), Melbourne 27.1%, Perth 48.1%.
-Queensland 61.8%. The only state detailed, although Sydney’s New South Wales had a heavier covid hit recently.
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
9 August 2021
[] PCW* reports on Russia’s travel:
-Travel market revenue was US$37.5bn in 2019. Change not given; or definition of ‘market revenue’; or an estimate for 2020 - we estimate -55%.
-Aviasales, a Russia-based search engine, has received US$43mn funding from Elbrus Capital and iTech Capital.
*Notes: PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
[] GD* reports on company deals done (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the travel business in Q2:
-Worth US$1.5bn. That was +421.4% over the previous Q, and +509.4% over average of last 4 Qs, which was US$242.88mn. GD did not give number of deals, as it usually does.
-Europe deals worth US$1bn. Change not given.
-Germany deals worth US$745.23mn. Change not given.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ - which may be only part travel-business.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Monthly All-World Market Indicators
6 August 2021
On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-May: world +126%, AsPac +52.3%, Europe +279%, North America +381%. IATA/TBA-estimates.
[] China Southern Airlines seat sales YT-Jun +62.3%.
[] Frankfurt airport passengers YT-Jun -46.6%.
[] Ryanair seat sales YT-Jun -61.9%.
[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, YT-Jun -90.9%.
[] US hotel occupancy YT-Jun % +24.8%. STR.
[] US travel agency US$ sales YT-Jun -3.2%. ARC.

Travel business updates
5 August 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-31 July 2021 occupancy 70.1% (-6.2%), average room rate US$142.76 (+6.8%)
-24 July 71.4% (-7.8%) US$141.75 (+4.0%)
-17 July 71.0% (-8.7%) US$139.19 (+1.8%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -56.9%. 2. -71.2%. 3. -79.5%. 4. -38.8%. 5. -60.7%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-August 1. 1. -33.6%. 2. -48.5%. 3. -55.8%. 4. -14.6%. 5. -38.8%.
-July 25. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-July 18. 1. -31.5%. 2. -46.4%. 3. -59.3%. 4. -9.5%. 5. -35.8%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
4 August 2021
[] Report* on Obilet, an OTA that operates only in Turkish:
-Forecasts selling 20mn +150% tickets* this year, with US$300mn revenue*.
-2016-19 AAGR (annual average growth rate) +77%.
-Forecasts 40mn +100% ticket sales in 2022, with US$500mn +66.7% revenue.
-Turkey’s intra-state bus market comprises 300 operators, 200mn tickets annually, with US$3bn revenue.
*Notes:
-Includes revenue following purchase of rival Biletall.
-We assume most value is for air tickets.
-Definition of ‘revenue’ not given.
[] During the July 1-5 US holiday period, government security checked 10.1mn travellers at US airports, -17.2% against 2019.

IATA’s annual stats report
3 August 2021
IATA* has published its annual WATS (World Air Transport Statistics), on 2020 data. The latest we have is for 2018 data, and thus our comparisons with that, if IATA does not provide 2019 comparison.
  Information includes* (all rounded percentage figures are IATA-rounded):
-Airlines seats sold 1.8bn -60.2% (in 2018 4.4bn +6.9%; 2017 4.1bn +7.3%; 2016 3.8bn +7%).
-Asia Pacific sold the most seats, 780.7mn -53.4%, share not given (1.6bn +9.2% 37.1%; 1.5bn +10.6% 36.3%, 1.3bn +11.3% 35%); Europe 389.9mn -67.4% (1.1bn +6.6% 26.2%; 1.1bn +8.2% 26.3%; 992.4mn +6.1% 26%); North America 401.7mn -60.8% (989.4mn +4.8% 22.6%; 941.8mn +3.2% 23%; 911.5mn +3% 24%).
-US$71.7 loss per seat sold, totalling US$126.4bn.
-Europe RPKs fell -69.7%. Other regions not given.
-China became the largest domestic market. Data not given.
-Top-5 airlines by total RPKs - American 124bn (change not given, 330.6bn +2.0% in 2018), China Southern 110.7bn (change not given), Delta 106.5bn (330bn +4.3%), United 100.2bn (329.6bn +6.0%), China Eastern 88.7bn (change not given). Out of the top-5 are Emirates (302.3bn +4.6% in 2018), Southwest (214.6bn +3.3%).
-Top-5 domestic city-pairs changed greatly in 2020, and mainly China routes: Jeju-Seoul Gimpo 10.2mn, +35.1%, Hanoi-Ho Chi Minh City 5.9mn +54.3%, Shanghai Hongqiao-Shenzhen 3.7mn +43.4%, Beijing Capital-Shanghai Hongqiao 3.6mn +11.8%, Guangzhou-Shanghai Hongqiao 3.5mn +41.2%. In 2018: Jeju-Seoul Gimpo 14.5mn +7.6%, Fukuoka-Tokyo Haneda 7.6mn +0.9%, Melbourne Tullamarine-Sydney 7.6mn -2.1%, Sapporo-Tokyo Haneda 7.3mn -1.5%, Beijing-Shanghai Hongqiao 6.4mn +0.4%. In 2017: Jeju-Seoul Gimpo 13.5mn +14.8%, Melbourne Tullamarine-Sydney 7.8mn +0.4%, Fukuoka-Tokyo Haneda 7.6mn +6.1%, Sapporo-Tokyo Haneda 7.4mn +4.6%, Beijing-Shanghai Hongqiao 6.4mn +1.9%. In 2016, top-3: Jeju-Seoul Gimpo 11.6mn +4.6%; Sapporo-Tokyo Haneda 7.7mn -1.2%; Fukuoka-Tokyo Haneda 7.3mn -4% (probably 4.0).
-Nationality*. Change of methodology (before 2018 was systemwide - although we noted that measuring would be difficult because usually no passport is required on domestic flights). We also show earlier data.
  In 2020, seats sold on international routes: US 45.7mn 9.7% share; UK 40.8mn 8.6%; Germany 30.8mn 6.5%; France 23.3mn 4.9%; India 17.4mn 3.7%.
  High positions of the UK and US are partly explained by a large number of nationals living in other countries. For instance, Americans in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, UK. And British in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, US. All these would be counted under their nationality, UK or US. We estimate about 10% should be deducted from IATA’s totals.
  In 2018, seats sold on international routes: UK 126.2mn 8.6% share; US 111.5mn 7.6%; China 97mn 6.6%; Germany 94.3mn 6.4%; France 59.8mn 4.1%.
  In 2017 systemwide US 632mn 18.6% share (2016 810mn 21%), China 555mn 16.3% (no 2016 data), India 161.5mn 4.7% (ditto), UK 147mn 4.3% (ditto), Germany 114.4mn 3.4% (ditto).
-Alliances. IATA shows as share of total traffic (the three have 52.7%; 56.1% in 2018). We have recalculated to show share of RPKs of each: Star 35.5% (39.0% in 2018, 39% in 2017, 38% in 2016), Sky Team 30.9% (33.5% 33%, NA), One World 24.1% (27.5% 28%, NA).
  IATA has problems defining what we call NFAs (no-frills-airlines), see Notes. In 2017 it called them New Model Airlines, then in 2018 the more-common LCC (low cost carrier). IATA’s LCCs/NMAs appear to combine our NFAs, low-cost-airlines, charter airlines, and perhaps others.
  Partly because of this, IATA does not show comparative data. For 2018 LCC capacity (ASKs) grew +13.4%, almost double total growth +6.9%. LCC capacity (ASKs) share 21%, which it compares with 11% in 2004. LCC capacity by seats 29% (16% in 2004).
  In 2016, NMAs had a 28.3% share of all seats sold, up from 27.1%; no data for 2017.
  IATA gives no information on LCCs or NMAs for 2020.
*Notes:
-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-Some comparative data is from our database.
-NFA=no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: shorthaul point-to-point routes; market freedom in terms of fares, routes; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; extremely-low fares when bought at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no (free) service frills; single economy-class cabin; no (free) seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more. Developments in technology are making some of these ‘requirements’ less important.

TBA Tracking: July travel stocks; another downer.
2 August 2021
Commentary (category numbers below):
-July was similar to those months where the good news is a slight fall, rather than a big fall.
-In truth, most falls were not great - but there was hardly any growth. Of airlines, only 4 of the 37 we track grew; hotels, 4 of 18; Others, 8 of 22.
-Airlines and Hotels were equally bad overall. AsPac airlines fell most, -11%, followed by North America -5%, Europe -1%.
-Pure-leisure stocks were slightly worse. Las Vegas hotel stocks fell 12-20%, cruisers 10-18%.
-Stocks in China (and China-related ones, and even those in Hong Kong) are hard to read. How much is related to the general negative publicity, where politics and business are becoming more mixed. For instance, actions in July by China’s government against Chinese educational companies quoted in the US, caused falls for other China-based/US-quoted companies. In travel, China’s US-quoted Trip fell -27%, the biggest fall of any travel-tech company, and the biggest fall in our US Others.
-And even in China travel companies fell big, -18%. Most have lost the gains they had made this year.
-Our two favourite no-frills-airlines, Ryan and Wizz, were the only ones to grow.
-If we had to pick ‘establishment’ (ergo blue chip) travel stocks, we would probably include Lufthansa, Singapore among airlines, Marriott among hotels. Those three were among the few that grew. Perhaps another blue-chip could be InterContinental; its fall was slight, -1%.
-Hertz doubled, having emerged from bankruptcy protection in June. Probably its last appearance in our ‘no-hopers’ category; there’s now hope.
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern -11%, Delta -8%, ICAG -4/3% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa +0.4%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia -8%, Easyjet -5%, Norwegian -4%, Ryanair +4%, Southwest -5%, Spring China -17%, Wizz +6%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor -5%, AirB&B -6%, InterContinental -1%, Marriott +7%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin -1%, Shangri-La -9%.
-Big travel groups. China United -6%, Flight Centre +1%, TUI -8/8% (Frankfurt/London).
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM -12%, Sands -20%, Wynn -20%.
-Planemakers. Airbus +7%, Boeing -5%, Embraer -1%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -7%, Fraport -4%, Guangzhou -22%.
-Cruisers. Carnival -18%, RCC -10%, Star -10%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirB&B -6%, Amadeus -7%, Booking -0.5%, Expedia -2%, Trip -22/27% (HK/NY).
-No-hopers. Hertz +111% (see Commentary above), Jet India -34%, Norwegian -4%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +0.2%, Hong Kong -10%, London -0.1%, Tokyo -5%, US (average of our four +1%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks), last month: -6%.Previous month: -2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -19%.
-World, last month: Airlines -7%, Hotels -7%, Others -4%.Previous month: Airlines -5%, Hotels flat, Others -1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -26%, Hotels -13%, Others -17%.
-Regions, all sectors, last month: Asia Pacific -9%, Europe -2%, US -6%.Previous month: Asia Pacific +4%, Europe -5%, US -6%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -20%, Europe -28%, US -8%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China, last month: Airlines -10%, Hotels -8%, Others -10%. Previous month: Airlines +4%, Hotels +8%, Others +2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -11%, Hotels -9%, Others -38%.
-China, last month: -18%. Previous month: -7%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -15%.
-China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US), last month: -16%. Previous month: -7%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -7%.
-Europe, last month: Airlines -1%, Hotels -2%, Others -3%. Previous month: Airlines -6%, Hotels -7%, Others -1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -40%, Hotels -21%, Others -22%.
-US, last month: Airlines -9%, Hotels -9%, Others +1%. Previous month: Airlines -12%, Hotels -2%, Others -3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -26%, Hotels -8%, Others +9%.
-Rest-of world, last month: +4%. Previous month: +4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -27%.
-Travel-tech, last month: -8%.Previous month: -4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +11%.
-Stockmarkets, last month: -0.4%. Previous month: +1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +18%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index, last month: World 204, Asia Pacific 48, Europe 169, US 396. Previous month: World 208, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 171, US 402. End-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), last month 86. Previous month 102. End-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index, last month 157. Previous month 165. End-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
30 July 2021
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 165 in June. Index previous month 164. Index end-2020 135; end-2019 157.
Comments:
-All travel-tech stocks: -4%. Previous month: +2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +19%.
-Only two of our 10 grew (AirB&B, eDreams), but big (+9% +30%), so boosting the total.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirB&B +9%, Amadeus -4%, Booking -7%, Expedia -7%, Trip -13/15% (HK/NY).
-China-based Trip fell heavy, making us wonder if this is related to anti-China movement in the US, and politically-related negatives in Hong Kong.
-Newly-listed AirB&B had the fastest growth January, the biggest falls in February and March, more falls in April and May, then growth at last last month. We wondered if the market thought its issue price was over-priced. July’s movements might give a further sign.
-Three are still below their base-price in our listing - Trip US, Trip Advisor, Trivago. Recovery looks possible this year for Trip US, Trip Advisor, but long in the future for Trivago.
-(We also note comparison with end-2019 prices. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)
-Only two of our eight stocks (9th and 10th, AirB&B and Trip-HK, were not quoted pre-covid) have not recovered their end-2019 price - Amadeus and Lastminute.
-In May, eDreams climbed back above end-2019. And we thought that Lastminute would make it last month, but it fell back further, leaving only it and Amadeus still below end-2019.
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes one company quoted in Asia Pacific, three in Europe, and six in the US - one of which, Trip-US, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Trip also listed in Hong Kong starting Apr 21. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip-US, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago, end-2020 for AirBnB, Apr 21 for Trip-HK.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-21


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Jun 21

May 21

Dec 20

Dec 19

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

AirBnB

153

140

147

na

na

9.1

5.5

106

64

Amadeus

59.3

62.0

59.6

72.8

40.7

-4.3

-3.6

179

109

Booking╪

2188

2362

2227

2054

1275

-7.3

5.5

192

117

eDreams

6.79

5.21

4.16

4.27

1.90

30.3

-3.6

412

250

Expedia

164

177

132

108

124

-7.5

0.0

192

117

Lastminute

40.5

42.7

26.0

46.0

13.1

-5.2

4.8

271

165

Trip-HK

276

317

na

na

na

-12.9

-1.1

103

63

Trip-US╪

35.5

41.9

33.7

33.5

46.8

-15.3

5.5

76

46

Trip Advisor

40.3

43.5

28.8

30.4

NA

-7.2

5.5

87

53

Trivago

3.31

3.96

2.42

2.62

na

-16.4

5.5

28

17

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Hotel business updates
29 July 2021
[] STR* reports US hotels gross operating profit in June was 84% of 2019 level.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-24 July occupancy 71.4% (-7.8%), average room rate US$141.75 (+4.0%)
-17 July 71.0% (-8.7%) US$139.19 (+1.8%)
-10 July 67.2% (-9.3%) US$139.84 (+5.4%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates
28 July 2021
[] IATA* reports air traffic for July (comparisons with same period in 2019, not 2020):
-Worldwide RPKs -60.1%, ASKs -51.6%, load factor -14.8pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -65.6%, Europe -69.2%, North America -36.2%.
-International RPKs -80.9% - Asia Pacific -94.6%, Europe -77.4%, North America -69.6%.
-Domestic RPKs -22.4% - Australia -40.7%, Brazil -31.1%, China -10.8%, India -70.8%, Japan -67.6%, Russia +33.0%, US -14.9%.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -57.8%. 2. -72.0%. 3. -80.1%. 4. -39.9%. 5. -61.5%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-July 25. 1. -34.2%. 2. -48.4%. 3. -58.9%. 4. -14.0%. 5. -39.2%.
-July 18. 1. -31.5%. 2. -46.4%. 3. -59.3%. 4. -9.5%. 5. -35.8%.
-July 11. 1. -22.7%. 2. -39.9%. 3. -51.6%. 4. -1.7%. 5. -30.5%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
27 July 2021
[] STR* reports on UK hotels:
-Occupancy above 60% in 4 weeks through 18 July.
-Highest weekly occupancy 63.5% over 12-18 July.
-That was lower than comparable week in July 2019 - 84.5%.
-During 12-18 July - Ireland market for UK hotels grew +54.3%, Spain +53.7%, France +51.4%, Italy +51.1%, Poland +50.1%, Switzerland +44.0%, Netherlands +43.6%. Shown are fastest; measure believed to be related to occupancy.
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] HNN* reports on US hotels in June:
-For the first time in 19 months, hotels sold 100mn ‘rooms’ (we presume HNN means roomnights).
-Occupancy was 66%.
-Group rooms (we presume HNN means roomnights) 3mn. We do not know HNN’s definition of a ‘group room’.
-Average room rate US$3 below annual average of ‘2017 through 2019. HNN counts this as three years; our system would be two, and three would be stated 2016-9.
*Notes:
-HNN = Hotel News Now, the publication division of STR (Smith Travel Research).
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Travel recovery from covid
23 July 2021
Skift has created a (travel) Recovery Index* to show countries’ rankings in terms of recovery to pre-pandemic travel levels. It has started with June 2021 against June 2019.
  Its RI shows Mexico as the 1st country to register 100 (ie full recovery). We do not know all details but in just one, visitor arrivals, Skift’s RI cannot be correct. Mexico’s VAs in Q1 were -47.7% 2021 against 2019.
  Even Skift’s own data belies that ‘recovery’ statement. Although it puts lodging at 130% of 2019 level, it puts ‘traveler activity’ (basically, bookings) at 80%, flight at 75%.
  Other data:
-Skift puts RI for the US at 93.
-Five countries fell in June - Australia, Singapore, UAE, South Africa, China. Reason for order not given; scores not given.
-Strongest recovery Turkey, growing 21 points in a month. Score not given.
-Other markets not shown. Skift tracks 22 (not identified).
-Worldwide at 64.
*Notes:
-US-based Skift is a media company that provides news, research, and marketing services on the travel business. Rafat Ali and Jason Clampet, still both executives at the company, founded it in 2012. Main Source: Wikipedia.
-One (of five) measures is macro-economic, not travel.

US travel business updates
22 July 2021
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-17 July occupancy 71.0% (-8.7%), average room rate US$139.19 (+1.8%)
-10 July 67.2% (-9.3%) US$139.84 (+5.4%)
-3 July 65.4% (-0.1%) US$135.35 (+5.8%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -58.7%. 2. -72.7%. 3. -80.7%. 4. -41.0%. 5. -62.3%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-July 18. 1. -31.5%. 2. -46.4%. 3. -59.3%. 4. -9.5%. 5. -35.8%.
-July 11. 1. -22.7%. 2. -39.9%. 3. -51.6%. 4. -1.7%. 5. -30.5%.
-July 4. 1. -31.7%. 2. -46.2%. 3. -58.2%. 4. -11.8%. 5. -38.7%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-June. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Hotel business updates
21 July 2021
[] STR* reports on hotel construction at June:
-Americas: in construction 243,395 -11.2%; final planning 243,809 -19.8%; planning 297,929 +25.9%. US most (no data), Mexico 13,721, Canada 9,325; growth not given.
-Asia Pacific: 476,302 -2.8%; 181,453 +8.8%; 271,268 +13.6%. China 290,619, Vietnam 31,732; growth not given.
-Europe: 237,304 +7.9%; 177,165 +13.0%; 147,712 -6.4%. Germany 49,027, UK 36,444; growth not given.
*Notes: STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
[] HNN (Hotel News Now) reports on California’s hotels in H1:
-Opened: hotels 51 +46%; rooms 7168 +100%.
-In construction: 132 -32%; 17,962 also -32%.
-At planning stage: 1246, which we calculate is +0.5%; 164,676 also +0.5%.

OTAs in Europe
20 July 2021
PCW* reports on OTAs in Europe:
-In 2020, OTA share of online accommodation bookings was 64%.
-This year, PCW forecasts OTA bookings will grow +55%. We presume this is against 2019; PCW does not clarify; this would be a weak recovery against 2020.
  Other data*:
-OTA gross bookings: 2019 +29%, 2020 +8% (sic), 2021 +55%, 2022 +40%, 2023 +35%, 2024 +34%.
-Market shares, %: Booking 53%, Expedia 20%, Trainline 15%, eDreams 15%, ETI 10%, Check 24 10%, Lastminute 7%, Invia 5%.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data. Originally PhoCusWright, it was named after founder Philip C Wolf, who died March 2021.
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.

US travel agencies
19 July 2021
We calculate H1 data for US travel agencies (from our ARC* database) over 10 years. Sales still fell -3.2%, although monthly figures have been growing for the past four months. However, online transactions were growing, +371.5%. See tables.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Growth in sales for US travel agencies, %


Year

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2010

+/-,%

-3.2

-67.5

3.4

6.2

3.5

-4.0

-0.9

21.7

Notes: Jan-Jun. Source: Airlines Reporting Corporation.

Growth in online transactions for US travel agencies, %


Year

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2010*

+/-,%

371.5

-98.2

17.9

0.4

3.6

12.7

18.1

16.3

Notes: Jan-Jun. *Net Value estimate. Source: Airlines Reporting Corporation, Net Value.

US travel business updates
16 July 2021
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for June:
-Air tickets sold US$4.2bn  +800%; average US roundtrip ticket US$454, which we calculate is +21.4%; passenger trips 17.5mn +208% (domestic 12.3mn +208%, international 5.2mn +267%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$8.22mn +296%; EMD transactions 170.3k +308%.
-For the month (compared with May), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: passenger trips +10% (domestic +10%, international +12%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-10 July occupancy 67.2% (-9.3%), average room rate US$139.84 (+5.4%)
-3 July 65.4% (-0.1%) US$135.35 (+5.8%)
-26 June 69.9% (-7.3%) US$133.36 (-0.5%)
-19 June 68.0% (-9.9%) US$128.90 (-4.4%)
-12 June 66.0% (-10.3%) US$125.16 (-7.0%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-May 61.8% (-4.2%) US$122.06 (-1.6%)
-April 57.3% US$108.10
-March 57.9% US$108.31 
-February 47.5% (-25.8%) US$96.72 (-25.2%)
-January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates
15 July 2021
[] Euromonitor has ranked 99 countries/territories for sustainable travel for 2020. Top-5 Sweden, then Finland Austria Estonia Norway; bottom-5, Pakistan bottom then India Mauritius Vietnam Morocco.
  Ranking of significant destinations: France 9, Germany 16, New Zealand 23, Spain 25, Australia 29, Italy 34, US 35, UK 40, Japan 53, China 56, Russia 65, Singapore 93. That makes Singapore’s low ranking - 6th from the bottom - the biggest surprise, although its population is a voracious user of plastics.
[] GD* reports Carnival Cruises job advertisements Q2 204 +213.9% over Q1.
*Notes: -GD = Global Data, a UK-based data and analytics company.
[] STR* reports on hotels:
-Beijing occupancy 64.7%, average room rate US$461 (Y645.54).
-London 41.0% US$137 (£99.78).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates
14 July 2021
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-52-week-average. 1. -59.6%. 2. -73.5%. 3. -81.3%. 4. -42.2%. 5. -63.2%.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-July 11. 1. -22.7%. 2. -39.9%. 3. -51.6%. 4. -1.7%. 5. -30.5%.
-July 4. 1. -31.7%. 2. -46.2%. 3. -58.2%. 4. -11.8%. 5. -38.7%.
-June 27. 1. -32.6%. 2. -47.1%. 3. -62.2%. 4. -11.4%. 5. -37.5%.
-June 20. 1. -31.4%. 2. -47.6%. 3. -64.6%. 4. -6.7%. 5. -36.2%.
-June 13. 1. -34.0%. 2. -50.8%. 3. -66.4%. 4. -10.3%. 5. -38.1%.
End-month 7-day periods:
-May. 1. -35.0%. 2. -52.9%. 3. -68.4%. 4. -7.7%. 5. -42.1%.
-April. 1. -44.5%. 2. -63.1%. 3. -76.4%. 4. -18.3%. 5. -49.8%.
-March. 1. -51.2%. 2. -68.1%. 3. -81.6%. 4. -27.0%. 5. -56.2%.
-February. 1. -58.9%. 2. -76.1%. 3. -83.0%. 4. -40.4%. 5. -62.9%.
-January. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels in July:
-Rooms in construction. 188,929 (peak 220,207, April 2020). Planning: 265,235. Final planning: 200,978.
-Rooms in construction. New York 21,878, Los Angeles 6595, Atlanta 6398, Las Vegas 5031, Dallas 5028.
-Rooms due to open 2021. New York City 8570, Los Angeles 2902, Austin 2437, Atlanta 2337.
*Notes: STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

Travel business updates
13 July 2021
[] IATA* reports air traffic for May (comparisons with same period in 2019, not 2020, unless otherwise noted):
-Worldwide RPKs -62.7%, ASKs -53.7%, load factor 65.8% -15.9pt.
-RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -59.5%, Europe -77.9%, North America -44.0%.
-International RPKs -85.1% - Asia Pacific -94.3%, Europe -84.7%, North America -74.4%.
-Domestic RPKs -23.9% - Australia -30.6%, Brazil -44.0%, China +6.3%, India -71.0%, Japan -68.5%, Russia +22.6%, US -26.2%.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
[] GD* reports on corporate deals (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the travel business in June. Deals done 74, +39.6% over the previous month (GD sometimes compares with average of previous 12 months, which is a better comparison).
*Notes:
-Details as reported by Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ - which may be only part travel-business.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
12 July 2021
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in June for US hotel companies was 4,993 -3.0% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +9.2%. Our database shows: their end-2020 Index was 4,574 -13.2%, end-2019 5,270 +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 208. Previous month 213; end-2020 178; end-2019 195.
-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 161. Previous month: 172; end-2020 146; end-2019 211.
-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 208, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 171, US 402. Previous month: World 219, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 178, US 428. End-2020 World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+AirBnB, Amadeus) was at 165. Previous month 164; end-2020 139; end-2019 160.
-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China travel companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 102. Previous month 110; end-2020 95; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Covid damage to travel
30 June 2021
Unctad* has produced a report with WTO* on the impact of covid on the travel business. Some points:
-*Global GDP in 2020 and 2021 could be US$4tn lower due to lower international travel due to covid.
-The travel business is forecast to recover faster in countries with high covid vaccination rates. It names France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, US.
-*WTO forecasts visitor arrivals will not return to pre-covid levels until 2023 ‘or later’.
-*WTO’s most-severe forecast is for visitor arrivals to fall -75% this year (presumed against 2019, but not clarified). That would mean ‘tourist’ receipts -US$948bn, causing a GDP loss of US$2.4tn.
-WTO’s mid-range forecast is for visitor arrivals to fall -63% this year.
-A third forecast is by Unctad. A -75% fall in ‘tourism’ in countries with ‘low-vaccination’ rates, -37% fall where there are ‘relatively-high’ rates.
-Unctad/WTO give a specific example for Turkey.
  -*Normally, ‘international tourism’ contributes about 5% of GDP. Visitor arrivals fell -69% in 2020.
  -*The fall in ‘tourism demand’ is estimated at US$33bn.
  -*Fall in ‘output’ -US$93bn. ‘Tourism’ fall contributes to a -9% GDP fall.
-*A fall in ‘tourism’ causes +5.5% growth in unemployment of unskilled labour ‘on average’, actually varying 0-15%.
-*Labour 30% share of ‘tourist services’’ spending in developed and developing economies.
-*In July 2020, Unctad forecast that a 4-12/month ‘standstill’ in ‘international tourism’ would cause the world economy to fall US$1.2-3.3tn.
-*WTO reports world visitor arrivals fell -1bn or -73% ‘between January and December 2020’.
-*In Q1 2021, WTO reports visitor arrivals -88%.
-Fall in visitor arrivals in developing countries in 2020 estimated -60-80%. Most-affected (not believed to be in order) North Africa, Northeast Asia, Oceania, South Asia, Southeast Asia. Least-affected Caribbean, North America, Western Europe. Other regions not given.
*Notes: Our Notes on this topic, some of which are important for proper interpretation of the report, are too long to be practically shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know or Net Value monthly-subscription-reports if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details on request.

UK travel business updates
17 June 2021
[] HNN (Hotel News Now) reports that sales for UK-based Whitbread, whose main hotel brand is Premier Inn, in the 13 weeks through May 27 (sic), were 11% above the overall market. Presumed to be Whitbread’s estimation, as it does not have access to results of other participants in the market.
  Other data:
-In the UK, 98% of its hotels are open. In Germany, its 2nd market, 63%.
-In ‘the quarter’ (presumed Q1) room revenue was -60.9% (compared with 2019), F&B revenue -86% (HNN rounded).
-Occupancy in ‘the period’ was 42.2%, average room rate US$57.12 (£40.94). Change not given.
-In Q1: in the UK it opened 10 hotels; in Germany three hotels were added to its pipeline, taking open and pipeline hotels/rooms to 73/13,500. No other data given enabling us to match regions and/or interpret developments.
[] A UK survey by an official group, You Gov and Visit Britain, found:
-10% are confident about an overseas holiday this year. 75% were not; 8% already had a booking.
-93% of women, 86% of men plan day trips.
-86% of women, 60% of men consider ‘staycations’* a preferred option.
-73% were ‘moderately’ or ‘very’ cautious about overseas travel.
-33% of women, 40% of men have no plans for international travel this year.
-18% will take more UK holidays now compared to 12% in June 2020.
-31% said their UK holidays would be about the same, compared to 25% in June 2020.
-5% forecast taking more overseas holidays in 2021 than in 2020.
-40% forecast taking fewer overseas holidays compared to 46% in June 2020. This seems almost within the margin of error.
*Notes: Staycation, sometimes called holistay, is a period where a person or family stays home and participates in leisure activities within day-trip distance of their home and does not require overnight accommodation. Sourced from Wikipedia.

WTTC gaffs updated
20 May 2021
An announcement from WTTC containing additional information about its April conference in Mexico reads like a response to our criticism of its health protocols for the event (‘Gaffs Galore’).
  Normally, after that, we would move on. But WTTC has not moved on, and thus we feel further reporting is required.
  WTTC headed its (undated, but apparently May 17) announcement - ‘WTTC Global Summit showed the world how major live corporate events and conferences can be staged safely’.
  That seems related to our crucial critique, but the opposite - that WTTC’s Mexico event set a poor example on how the travel business should safely manage events. We gave a rock festival in Barcelona as an example of how to handle large events.
  For us, WTTC failed badly.
  Previously, WTTC gave no health-related data on its event, just reporting in essence that it did things safely. We extract key data that WTTC has now provided:
-(Previous data: 600 delegates from 40 countries.)
-1500 PCR and antigen covid tests taken after arrival, during, and at departure.
-99.8% of tests were negative.
-Two (would-be) delegates tested positive on arrival and were declined admittance.
-One tested positive before departure. WTTC is coy about this, because the phrase presumably means ‘during’ the event; otherwise the term would be ‘at/on departure’.
  Our comments:
-Maths. If 600 delegates had tests on arrival and departure, that leaves 300 ‘during’. We presume non-delegate support staff were also tested, and we estimate there were at least 200 such people. If they were not tested, that is not good. If they were tested, then WTTC’s numbers do not match its claim.
-WTTC also claims it followed ‘enhanced’ protocols at the event. But it amplifies that as meaning ‘mask wearing and physical distancing’, which are normal, not ‘enhanced’ protocols. In addition, pictorial evidence from the event indicates neither mask-wearing nor distancing were common.

end

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