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Travel business updates
7 August 2020
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports Latin America* gross travel bookings* were US$65bn +3% in 2019. Other year gross bookings:
-2020 forecast to fall -59% - each country minus 44-63%.
-2018 US$55.5bn -6%.
*Notes:
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.
-A common fault with many reports concerns the terms ‘Latin America’ and North America. LAm is not a geographical term and is usually assumed to include Central America, South America, but also Mexico. Not only is Mexico part of NAm, but the three ‘Guyana’ countries are not ‘Latin’. Reports rarely define what is included and excluded.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* forecasts -31.6% fall in Turkey’s visitor arrivals this year. Our database shows VAs were 51.2mn +11.9% in 2019; we do not know what totals GD uses.
*Notes: GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.

Travel business updates
6 August 2020
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-26 July-1 August occupancy 48.9% (-34.5%), average room rate US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] Lufthansa Group reports*:
-Q2 revenue US$2.4bn (at US$1 to €0.93) -80%. Seats sold 1.7mn -96%
-H1 revenue US$8.9bn -52%. Seats sold 23.5mn -66%.
-In July, capacity grew to 20% of its 2019 level. In Q3, capacity is forecast to grow to 40% on short- and medium-haul routes, to 20% on longhaul routes. In Q4, 55% 50%. By end-2020 95% 70%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
5 August 2020
[] IHIF reports Host Hotels as saying its hotels can be viable with 10% occupancy. Other HH data:
-Q2 revenue 103mn (IHIF reports this as UK£, but other data indicates it is US$) -93%.
-Occupancy 6.9% in April, 10.7% in June, Q2 8.8% (82% Q2 2019). Other comparisons not given.
-Average room rate US$129 April, US$194 June, Q2 US$249. No comparisons given.
[] GD* reports that TUI plans to close 166 travel agencies in the UK. Our data indicates it has about 500, which means a 30% share.
  GD research indicates:
-45% of ‘global tourists’ buying more products online. On its own, that figure means little. Nor the definition; what is a ‘global tourist’? 
-20% of consumers who ‘most typically book’ at a brick-and-mortar travel agency were aged 65+.
-43% of those in that age group say they are planning to reduce international travel in the short-term. There are too many unknowns (‘planning’, ‘reduce’, ‘short-term’) for this to have any value.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
4 August 2020
[] Summer on the Cote d’Azur* in France:
-80% of accommodation is open for summer (which we count as through mid-September).
-July hotel occupancy 55% (published two days before month-end).
*Notes:
-Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is brand identity; knowing what is meant by CDA.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -56.71%. 2. -62.53%. 3. -61.86%. 4. -53.05%. 5. -57.01%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: August travel stocks’ ups and (mainly) downs
3 August 2020
Commentary (numbers below):
-China has shaken off covid. Prices in Shanghai were 4% above end-2019. However, including China stocks quoted in other regions and prices were still -8% against end-2019.
-Another bad month for airlines. They fell further than all other sectors in the three regions we cover.
-Four airlines in AsPac grew, but only SAS in Europe, and none in the US. (No clear pattern in AsPac - two in Hong Kong, Korea, New Zealand.)
-Airline giants - Delta -11%, ICAG -23% (London; -24% Madrid), Lufthansa -16%, China Southern +5% (HK; +3% Shanghai).
-No frillers - Air Asia (worries about its survival) -27%, not-so-Easy -27%, Ryan -1%, Southwest -10%, Spring (China) +12%, Wizz -3%.
-No-hope airlines? Hainan China +5%, Jet India -5%, Norwegian -17%. Wheels? Hertz +3%!
-Hotel giants - InterContinental -1%, Marriott -2%.
-Aircraft - Airbus -3%, Boeing a punishing -14%.
-Top hotels AsPac - Mandarin -2%, Peninsula -9%, Shangri-La -16%.
-Sinking cruisers - Carnival -15%, Royal Caribbean -3%, Star -13%.
-Travel-tech. Hard to read - 3 up, 5 down.
-Travel agencies (remember them?) - Amex -2%, CITS (see next), TUI (shuts down 30% of its B&M shops in the UK) -24%.
-Hardest covid hits. Percentage below end-2019 - Hertz -91%, Norwegian -94%.
-Big surprises - Cathay -30%, CITS +58%, eDreams -28%, Jinjiang (Shanghai) +42%.
-Stockmarkets. A surprising number fell; nine - Bangkok Istanbul London Madrid New York-Travel Weekly Paris Singapore Tokyo Zurich.
Numbers - Sectors:
-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines -10%, Hotels -7%, Others -1%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -46%, Hotels -28%, Others -28%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -14%, Hotels -13%, Others -14%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -54%, Hotels -47%, Others -53%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines -12%, Hotels -2%, Others -1%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -63%, Hotels -42%, Others -39%.
-China +13%. Compared with end-2019: +4%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +9%. Compared with end-2019: -8%.
-Travel-tech -5%. Compared with end-2019: -35%.
-Stockmarkets +2%. Compared with end-2019: -12%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243. Index previous month: World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 83. Index previous month 80. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 91. Index previous month 99. Index end-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel business updates
31 July 2020
[] WTO* reports on covid closures:
-40% of destinations have eased travel restrictions at July 19. It was 22% June 15, 3% May 15.
-Of those 87 destinations, four have lifted all restrictions.
-Of the 87, 20 are small islands, many of which depend on tourism as an important part of employment, economy, development.
-Of the 87, 41 are in Europe.
-Of the 115 that have borders closed, 88 have been closed for more than 12 weeks.
*Notes: WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobbying body for the travel business.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-19-25 July occupancy 48.1% (-37.9%), average room rate US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.
-17-23 May: -50.2% 35.4%, -39.7% US$80.92.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports on the UK travel market:
-Forecasts a fall greater than it forecast in early June - 2020 gross bookings to fall -55% to US$28bn (£22.6bn).
-Monthly changes (our Net Value estimates on PCW data) - Jul -80%, Aug -70%, Sep -60%, Oct -55%, Nov -45%, Dec -35%.
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
30 July 2020
[] Excerpts from II* findings on Germany outbound travel:
-70% will continue to travel abroad (precise period not given), 20% domestic, 10% no travel.
-80% wanted to holiday before end-2020.
-Spain first, then Italy, France, Austria. No data given.
-85% are anxious, and 80% see travel as posing an additional risk of infection.
-For shorthaul destinations, Germany rated safest, then Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria. For longhaul, Korea, Singapore, UAE. No data given.
*Notes:
-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports on latest deals in the travel business in Q2:
-Deals. Value US$8.34bn -59.7% (over Q1) -67.9% over the last 4Q average (US$26.09bn). Number 177 -49% over the last 4Q average (347). Change over Q1 not given.
-North America. Deals worth US$3.3bn. Changes not given.
-Top-5 tourism & leisure deals; we do not know what GD’s other categories are. Share 69.4%. Value US$5.79bn. Comprising: Evolution Gaming’s US$2.32bn purchase of NetEnt; Apollo Global/Silver Lake US$1.2bn private equity deal with Expedia; Silver Lake/TPG Sixth Street US$1bn private equity deal with AirBnB; Nueva Inversiones Pacifico US$876.42mn private equity deal with Sun International; Broadscale/Ervington/Exor/83North/Hearst/Macquarie/Mori/Pitango/Planven/River Park/Shell US$400mn venture financing of Via Transportation.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some of these are not travel-business deals, or loosely.
-We have shortened the name of some companies.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts:
-RPKs to return to pre-covid levels in 2024; before it forecast 2023.
-Seat sales to return to pre-covid levels in 2023; before it forecast 2022.
-55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.
-2020 seat sales to fall -55%; in April it forecast -46%. 2021 seat sales to grow +62% (which would be down -30% on 2019).
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US visitors update
29 July 2020
[] The US DMO has published more data on characteristics of 2019 visitors:
-Total 40.4mn -1.3%, spending US$211.4bn, ‘down slightly’.
-Leisure and VFR (visiting friends or relatives) 33.1mn. Change shown only against 1997, when it was 18.8mn. We do not understand why a comparison is given with a year 22 years ago. We could understand 2000, but also would need a comparison with 2018.
-States visited 1.4 (1.6). Those visiting only one state 75.9% (63.1%).
-Length of stay 16.9 nights (15.4).
-Travel group size 1.7 persons (1.6).
-‘Conventional’ tour package 13.3% share (22.5%).
-Repeat travellers 78.7% (75.3%).
-Female share 48% (34%).
-89.3% rated their experience as ‘average/good/excellent’, 97.1% ‘met or exceeded expectations’, 97.7% expect to revisit. Comparison with 1997 not given.
-76.0% share stayed in hotels/motels for 1+ nights. Comparison with 1997 not given, but -0.2pts over 2018.
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
28 July 2020
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports June RPKs -86.5% (it was -91.0% in May), ASKs -80.1%, load factor 57.6% -26.8pt.
  RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -76.4%, Europe -93.7%, Middle East -95.5%, North America -86.3%.
  International RPKs -96.8% - Asia Pacific -97.1%, Europe -96.7%, Middle East -96.1%, North America -97.2%.
  Domestic RPKs -67.6% - Australia -93.8%, Brazil -84.7%, China -35.5%, Japan -74.9%, Russia -58.0%, US -80.1%.
[] WTO* reports on the visitor business:
-May arrivals fall -300mn -98%; Jan-May -56%.
-Visitor spend Jan-May -US$320bn - 3x loss during the worldwide economic crisis over 2008-9.
*Notes: WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobbying body for the travel business.
[] ARC* has processed US$1bn +558% in refunds over Mar 9-Jul 12 from airlines to US travel agencies - US$745mn in cash, the balance as credit.
*Notes: ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
[] GD* forecasts US ‘spend into’ South America will fall -44.4% ‘between 2020 and 2021’. We believe GD means ‘visitor spend in SA’, but we cannot interpret the period, or the comparison period.
-Spend was US$38.8bn +7.3% in 2019, and the same, +7.3%, AAGR (annual average growth rate) over 2017-9. (GD puts spend in 2017 at US$33bn, which we calculate would mean +8.4% AAGR 2017-9).
-GD forecasts US$54bn ‘by 2024’, which we believe is in 2024, not 2023.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
27 July 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -56.01%. 2. -61.78%. 3. -60.96%. 4. -52.51%. 5. -56.30%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
24 July 2020
[] STR* shows US hotels gross operating profit per available room down -105.4% to -US$5.89 in June. It was -110.1% in May, -116.9% in April.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
[] STR* reports for June:
-On Asia Pacific hotels: occupancy -43.0% to 38.8%, average room rate -35.2% to US$58.86.
-On Middle East hotels: -42.9% to 33.6%, -24.9% to US$97.31.
-On Europe hotels: -72.8% to 21.6%, -34.8% to US$89.98 (€83.69).
-On Central/South America hotels: -68.9% to 17.3%, -34.6% to US$53.77.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
[] GD* reports on Australia:
-Jan-Apr arrivals 1.8mn -44%. We do not understand why GD has reported this. Not only is more current data needed, but Jan and Feb were not affected, or less affected before covid hit hard. And Apr-Jun at least were badly hit. Our databased shows -54% Jan-May but -68% Feb-May.
-Adelaide, Melbourne, Perth, Sydney ‘attract 85% of international visitor arrivals to the respective region’. GD means 85% ‘to their respective regions’ (we presume South Australia, Victoria, West Australia, NSW). This is not a surprise as these are the capitals and thus main foreign-entry point.
-‘Tourism’ spend is forecast to fall -US$38bn (at US$1 to A$1.44) in 2020-21. It reports visitors spent US$31bn in 2019.
  GD does not clarify is this US$38bn incudes domestic travel spend, nor what proportion of the total this is. Our database shows a total of US$45.7bn +9.1% (quoted in US$) for visitor spend in 2019.
-GD reports Australia residents (GD reports nationals, but we believe this is wrong) spent US$45bn on overseas holidays in 2019. Usually the spend figure is total, not one sector - such as ‘holidays’ noted here. GD does not qualify its figure.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
23 July 2020
 [] STR* reports on US hotels:
-12-18 July occupancy 47.5% (-38.9%), average room rate US$98.56 (-28.0%)
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.
-17-23 May: -50.2% 35.4%, -39.7% US$80.92.
-10-16 May: -54.1% 32.4%, -42.4% US$77.55.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -55.30%. 2. -61.01%. 3. -60.06%. 4. -51.95%. 5. -55.57%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
22 July 2020
[] STR* and AirDNA report on 27 international markets over March through 27 June:
-During the last week of the analysis, occupancy for larger short-term rentals was 61.4%, hotel-like short-term rentals 58.2%, hotels 39.2%. Comparisons not given.
-During the last two weeks of the analysis (thus different from the occupancy period), average room rate growths for hotels were +5.1% and +2.4%. Numbers not given, nor the other categories.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports on its study in the US:
-32% will reduce domestic and international travel.
-Forecast fall in domestic travel -31%; period not given.
-California, most-visited state, the ‘value’ its travel industry US$84.6bn in 2019, a 2.5% share of the total GDP.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, August
21 July 2020
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.
TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2020: May -93.8%E; Apr -96.6%P; Mar -62.8%.
TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2020: May -91.6%E; Apr -97.5%P; Mar -64.4%.
TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2020: May -86.0%E; Apr -93.9%P; Mar -56.7%.
TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2020: May -86.2%E; Apr -93.8%P; Mar -53.2%.
World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 125; May 137; Apr 129. TBA.
World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 138; May 144; Apr 139. TBA.
World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 137; May 136; Apr 129. TBA.
World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 99; May 100; Apr 91. Net Value.
AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 44; May 44; Apr 46. TBA.
China travel stocks index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), on 100: 2020: Jun 78; May 80; Apr 81. TBA.
Hawaii visitor arrivals: 2020: May -98.9%; Apr -95.5%.
Hong Kong visitor arrivals: 2020: May -99.8%; Apr -99.9%; Mar -98.6%.
Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 123; May 126; Apr 119. TBA.
Frankfurt airport passengers: 2020: Jun -90.9%; May -95.6%; Apr -96.9%.
US travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 243; May 241. TBA.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
20 July 2020
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 99 in June. Index previous month 100. Index end-2019 157.
  Comments:
-June results were practically unchanged - which could be interpreted as disappointing.
-Yet five of our eight stocks were falling, with only Expedia, Lastminute, Trip growing.
-More troubling is that all their local stockmarkets were growing. Booking’s was +6%, although the company fell -3%.
-Four are still below their base price. That’s a continuing surprise for Expedia and Trip, but Trivago has been falling for most of the time it has been listed.
-All eight are still below their pre-covid prices, this past January. (Not shown in table.)
-We are frequently caught out with trends. With April results, we thought none seemed likely to catch up in statistical terms for at least 3/4 months. Then in May we thought the trend line for Booking indicated it might recover by end-July. But in June, it fell back again.
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20


Company

Price,local currency

 

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Jun 20

Dec 19

Dec 18

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

Amadeus

46.4

72.8

60.8

40.7

-1.2

2.0

140

142

Booking╪

1592

2054

1722

1275

-2.9

6.0

140

141

eDreams

2.47

4.27

2.38

1.90

-13.6

2.0

150

151

Expedia

82.2

108

113

124

3.4

0.8

96

97

Lastminute

22.8

46.0

17.5

13.1

12.9

1.9

153

154

Trip╪

25.9

34.9

27.1

46.8

0.1

0.8

55

56

Trip Advisor

19.0

30.4

53.6

NA

-4.8

0.8

41

41

Trivago

1.97

2.62

5.63

na

-6.2

0.8

17

17

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Travel business updates
17 July 2020
[] STR* reports on US hotel transactions:
-Transaction numbers.Mar-May -48% (over 2019). Jan-Feb 514, which we calculate is -11.1%. April 43 -86%. May 68 -94%.
-Transaction dollar value.Mar-May -74%. Jan-Feb +14%. May US$112mn, which we calculate is -93.8%.
-2019. Transactions 3897 worth US$41.5bn. One (Bellagio; presumably the one in Las Vegas) was US$4.25bn.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-Number/change not given if not reported here.
-Periods as shown, even if not consistent.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Radisson Hotels* signed for 15 hotels in EMEA in Q2; change not given.
*Brussels/Stockholm-based. Owned primarily by US-based group of same name (other brands include Country, Park). In turn, US-based Radisson was bought by China’s (now troubled) HNA group in 2016, but on-sold to China’s Jinjiang group in 2018. Still listed on Stockholm stock exchange.

US travel business updates
16 July 2020
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies:
-For June (compared with June 2019): air tickets sold US$469mn -94%; average US roundtrip ticket US$374 -$138; passenger trips 5.69mn -76% (domestic 4.3mn -72%, international 1.4mn -84%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$2.08mn -69%; EMD transactions 41.7k -76%.
-For June (compared with May 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +337%; passenger trips +56% (domestic +57%, international +53%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-5-11 July occupancy 45.9% (-38.0%), average room rate US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.
-17-23 May: -50.2% 35.4%, -39.7% US$80.92.
-10-16 May: -54.1% 32.4%, -42.4% US$77.55.
-3-9 May: -55.9% 30.1%, -42.1% to US$76.35.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
15 July 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -54.45%. 2. -60.13%. 3. -59.03%. 4. -51.22%. 5. -54.72%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Asia Pacific YTD visitor arrivals, resident departures
14 July 2020
A brief review of YTD counts*, growth only, for visitor arrivals in selected destinations, and resident/citizen departures from selected markets.
-Visitor arrivals - China -23%, Hong Kong -44%, Singapore -17%, Thailand -15%.
-Resident/citizen departures - China -20%, Japan -16%, Korea -23%, Taiwan -5%.
*Notes:
-January through April.
-Data from various sources, mainly DMOs, government departments, and most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Hotel business updates
13 July 2020
[] STR* reports for June:
-Dubai hotels: occupancy -60.8% to 26.3%, average room rate -28.9% to US$75 (which we have converted from Dh275.75).
-London hotels: -74.4% to 23.0%, -59.2% to US$91 (£72.48).
-Melbourne hotels: -53.4% to 34.0%, -29.4% to US$83 (A$119.14).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
10 July 2020
[] Cirium* reports on July’s domestic flight markets (any rounding by Cirium):
-US has most scheduled flights, 413,538, then China, 378,434.
-But the US has 47.4mn -46% scheduled seats, fewer than China’s 64mn -5%. Pre-covid, the US was the largest domestic market.
-The top-20 domestic markets account for 1.3mn -32% flights. Of these, Asia Pacific accounts for a 54% share, North America 33%, Europe -9%, Latin America (not defined, but usually includes Mexico, which should also be in NAm) 4%.
-Top-5. US 31.3% of flights, 25.2% of seats. China 28.7% 32.4%. India 6.6% 7.5%. Indonesia 5.8% 6.4%. Japan 4.9% 5.4%.
-Other data from Cirium: Australia July flights -70%, seats -74%; India July flights -4%.
*Notes:
-Cirium is a UK-based data and analysis company owned by publicly-quoted Relx (sic).
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] US-based Expedia says overall accommodation was down -45% in June (after -85% H2 March). Presumed to show booking data via Expedia group sites; no figures for other periods.
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) forecasts gross travel revenue in France will fall 52% this year.
[] STR* reports pipeline of under-construction US hotel rooms in May was 217,000, which we calculate was +6.9%, and total under contract 679,000 +3.5%.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
9 July 2020
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in June for US hotel companies was 3,060 -5.3% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -41.9%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 138. Previous month: 144.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 125. Previous month: 125.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 137, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 243. Previous month: World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 107. Previous month: 109.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 78. Previous month: 80.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Travel business updates
8 July 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -53.51%. 2. -59.17%. 3. -57.87%. 4. -50.40%. 5. -53.83%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.
-May 3. 1. -81.8%. 2. -89.5%. 3. -91.1%. 4. -74.0%. 5. -82.5%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Travel Mole reports UN figures that ‘global tourism related revenues’ could fall US$1-3tn, see below.
  Period not defined (we presume 2020), nor the criteria for the measures; ‘tourism-related’ could cover a wide range of activity. The WTO counted US$ US$1.48tn in visitor-spend in 2019.
  The UN study is based on restrictions lasting 4, 8, 12 months - for losses of US$1.17tn, US$2.22tn, US$3.3tn. Details of restrictions not defined.
  Only one country was detailed, the US, losing US$500bn. The restriction-scenario for this figure was not defined.
  Our database shows that in March, WTO forecast 2020’s visitor spend would be down less - minus US$300-450bn -33%, which indicated the 2020 total would be US$1.1-1.26tn, a 19-28% fall.
[] Atlas VPN reports that travel-startup earnings fell -70% during the covid pandemic. No further clarification; AVPN also reported on other business sectors.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) reports that Germany’s 2020 travel bookings will be US$32.5bn -52% (€30.2bn). It forecasts 2019 levels will be reached in 2022.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Travel deals done*. GD* reports on latest deals done by companies in the travel business. Findings:
-Deals Jun 22-28 -3.8% (number not given); Jun 15-21 no data given; Jun 8-14 27 (which we calculate +42.1%); Jun 1-7 19 (change not given); May 25-31 -31.3% (number not given); May 18-24 -38.5% (number not given); May 11-17 26 -3.7%; May 4-10 27 (growth not given). GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but these are over the previous weeks.
-GD information on locations is inconsistent, and some appears to be incorrect, viz:
   -For Jun 22-28 and Jun 15-21 no details.
   -For Jun 8-14 deals grew in Australia (not usually included), UK, US (numbers not given). China fell; India no change. No information given for the other market GD usually covers - Korea.
   -For May 25-31 deals fell in the UK and US (numbers not given). No information for China, India, Korea.
   -For May 18-24 deals fell in the US (number not given). Yet for May 11-17 GD did not note where the 26 deals it listed were done; we presumed the US. For that same week for China, India, UK it noted no deals. And for May 4-10, one deal each for China, India, UK.
   -For UK May 11-17 GD notes an ‘improvement’ - although for the previous week it reported zero deals. And it added that in Korea deal numbers were the same as the previous week - although it gave no number that previous week. In addition, GD made no reference to China, India.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
7 July 2020
[] WTTC* finds:
-1mn arrivals into Europe would add US$480mn to GDPs. It also reports that 1:480 ratio for world arrivals.
-1% growth in arrivals would add US$7.23bn to GDPs.
*Notes:
-WTTC - World Travel & Tourism Council - is a lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
-An important part of its work has been to explain to world governments how valuable was the travel business (which, in respect of its name, the WTTC must define as the meaningless ‘travel & tourism’).
-What the WTTC has been struggling to do in its 30 years of existence, was achieved in 4/5 months of the covid coronavirus this year. Surely everyone now knows the value of the travel business?
-Although not expected to disband, WTTC has not yet announced any new/replacement mission.
-WTTC has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business. It terms all this a travel GDP (gross domestic product), which we usually reduce to TGDP.
-Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
-WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-WTTC reports that the travel business in 2019 represented a 10%  share of jobs (=330mn), 25% of new jobs, 10.3% of world GDP.
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports* May RPKs -91.3%, ASKs -86.0%, load factor 50.7% -31.0pt.
  RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -82.7%, Europe -97.7%, Middle East -97.9%, North America -92.5%.
  International RPKs -98.3% - Asia Pacific -98.0%, Europe -98.7%, Middle East -98.0%, North America -98.2%.
  Domestic RPKs -79.2% - Australia -96.6%, Brazil -91.1%, China -49.9%, Japan -90.7%, Russia -82.7%, US -89.5%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
6 July 2020
[] Unctad* has issued a report on the travel business. As its base finding is wrong (unless mis-stated), we presume the report findings are also wrong.
  Unctad has used WTO* data to state that ‘tourism’ has grown ‘in value’ from US$490bn to US$1.6tn* in the last 20 years.
  It has not.
  Those WTO figures are visitor-spend in destinations. Not only are they subject to different methods of collection (and thus should better be defined as an estimate), but they exclude some spending - most notably on air travel.
  That a United Nations body should make such a giant error - although the WTO is opaque on its methodology - is disturbing for those trying to analyse its analysis of the travel business.
*Notes:
-Unctad = United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Wikipedia reports Unctad, established in 1964, is part of the UN secretariat, dealing with trade, investment, development issues.
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobby group for the travel business.
-Our WTO database shows US$1.5tn visitor spend in 2019, a US$100bn difference.
[] GD* reports on Greece:
-Counted 35.3mn visitors in 2019 (change not given) and pre-covid forecast 37.1mn arrivals in 2020; which we calculate would have been +5.1%). WTO reports 31.3mn +4.1% in 2019.
-GD says the 2020 forecast is 24.3mn, which we calculate would be -31.1% on GD’s 2019 figures.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
3 July 2020
[] Uniglobe Travel International reports on its corporate travel survey (any rounding by UTI):
-Share of companies in North America reporting employees were travelling, or planned to travel in the next 1-3 months - 32%. In Europe 61%; worldwide 48.7%.
-Companies in North America reporting it is too early to say when their employees will get back on the road, 51%; Europe 27%; no WW data.
-Companies in North America reporting policy changes due to covid, 41%; Europe 56%; no WW data.
-Policy changes WW were limiting or banning travel for ‘internal’ meetings (presumed to mean ‘inside’, not ‘internal company’) 64.1%; limiting participation at meetings or conferences depending on attendee numbers or places of origin 54.1%; restricting selected destinations 41.4%; more travel moved to virtual meetings 11.4%; new trip-approval process 43.7%.
-Planning new or changed insurance policies 9.9% (presumed WW); travellers to take vaccine (redundant question as covid vaccine not yet available) or take covid tests 7.7%; travellers to sign liability waivers 6.1%; travellers to use tracking app 6.1%.
  On environmental matters:
-55.3% report environmental (policies? UTI is not clear) will be strengthened over the next 18 months; 42.9% report they will be maintained; 1.8% report they will be weakened or eliminated.
-Before covid, 21.3% of respondents included environmental sustainability in their policies.
*Notes: At press time, UTI had not answered our request for clarifications.
[] The ICCA* report on meetings in 2019 includes (no data if none shown here):
-Meetings 13,254, which we calculate is +2.5%.
-Spend US$11bn, which we calculate would be US$830k/meeting. Growth NA; ICCA did not publish a figure for 2018.
-Delegates Barcelona 1st, 157,000, which we calculate is +16.4%. Paris 2nd,  then Madrid, Lisbon, Vienna, Berlin. London entered top-10,at 7th, then Milan. New in top-20 Hamburg, Prague, Beijing, Athens.
-US 357,000 delegates, then Spain, Germany, France. No5 Italy, replacing Canada. Then UK No6, then Japan, China, Canada in the top-10.
*Notes:
-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.
-We have extensive caveats on ICCA’s data. These are shown in a full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report. This also contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-Until 2009, ICCA gave us additional information for our analysis, but has stopped this since.

Travel business updates
2 July 2020
[] Findings in report by FK* for WTTC* include:
-London is 10th most-booked city in Europe; only other city noted, Lisbon 1st. In June 2019, London was 1st, then Paris, Rome; Lisbon 9th.
  The UK is opening travel from selected destinations; Portugal is excluded.
*Notes:
-FK = Forward Keys. A Spain-based research company founded in 2010, tracking travel on the basis of air bookings. It analyses 17mn flight booking transactions daily from major global reservation systems.
-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -52.71%. 2. -58.34%. 3. -57.03%. 4. -49.61%. 5. -53.03%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: June travel stocks’ downs and, yes, ups
1 July 2020
Commentary (numbers below):
-Instead of an unmitigated disaster, it is becoming a mitigated disaster. (Yes, that’s an improvement.)
-There is the beginning of a pattern. At its broadest, travel stocks in Asia Pacific slight growth (+3% compared with previous month), Europe still falling (-6%), US quite good (+6%).
-Compared with pre-covid end-2019, however, there is some way to go. AsPac -30% compared with end-2019 prices, Europe -47%, US -40%.
-We track 12 separate sectors (geographical, business, etc), with some minor duplication (eg, a travel-tech stock in Europe also covered in all-travel-tech stocks). Of these, 5 are falling compared with previous month, 7 growing. But compared with end-2019, all are still down; closest to recovery is, not unexpectedly, China, down -12%. Outside China, relative best is AsPac hotels, down -22%.
-Among airlines, Norwegian continues its tumble. It was NK324 at its 2015 end-year peak; now NK3. Perhaps it is better to shut down - India’s non-flying Jet was +41% and only -1% over end-2019!
-For airlines, in AsPac 10 of our 14 were still down; in Europe, 8 of 10. But in the US only 1 of 7. That said, US airlines have fallen further this year. With renewed concern in the US over covid infections, they will probably fall this month.
-For hotels, falls were generally slighter. InterContinental and Marriott, the two giants, were -8% and -3%. In AsPac, only 1 of 6 fell.
-Travel-tech was -1% but with mixed individual results, from +13% to -14%.
-For Others:
    -Much commentary on Hertz which, despite filing for bankruptcy, was the fastest-growing in the US in June +41%, but down the most, -91%, on its end-2019 price.
    -Our two airport-group companies - Paris (ADP) -2%, Frankfurt (Fraport) -13%. Our single airports are in China - Beijing (Hong Kong-quoted) +0.4%, Guangzhou -7%, Shanghai -0.4%.
    -Airbus and Boeing, despite general negative reports for both, grew - +12% +26%.
    -Cruisers Carnival and Royal Caribbean were +4% -3%, but both had fallen further than most other US stocks. They are -68% -62% on end-2019.
-China’s travel stocks were +4% - same for both, quoted in China and out.
-No clear pattern for NFAs (no-frills-airlines). In AsPac, Air Asia +27% but half its end-2019 price, and China’s Spring -2%. In Europe 1 up, 1 down, 1 unchanged. In the US, Southwest +6%.
-China’s big-3 airlines similar moves, as usual - +2%, +1%, +2%.
-The three top-end hotel groups - Peninsula +4%, Mandarin +5%, Shangri-La flat. All are -16-18% below their end-2019 prices.
-Of stockmarkets, Istanbul is the only one back above end-2019, although that market is often more out of line with apparent ‘facts-on-the-ground’ than other markets. Of those other (slightly)-more-understandable markets, New Zealand’s was just short, -1%, of end-2019. Furthest from recovery is Travel Weekly US, -34%, which as discouraging in that this is a travel industry measure; others cover all industries.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 137, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 243. Index previous month: World 137, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 126, US 241. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 78. Index previous month 77. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 107. Index previous month 109. Index end-2019 170.
Numbers - Sectors:
-Asia Pacific. Airlines +2%, Hotels +2%, Others +4%.
-Europe. Airlines -7%, Hotels -10%, Others -2%.
-US. Airlines +13%, Hotels -6%, Others +6%.
-China +4%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +4%.
-Travel-tech -1%.
-Stockmarkets +3%.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel: back to the ‘old normal’ - tomorrow
30 June 2020
See https://wp.me/pTv9-qv
Excerpts:
NFAs (no-frills-airlines), particularly Ryanair of course, are trying to motivate potential travellers with low fares. For this near peak-season period, many fares are lower than before-covid.
Will visitors wonder whether they are welcome or not? Cambodia and Maldives are effectively saying No.
In turn, negative moves or sentiments might push some travellers to consider domestic travel, or near- or ‘friendly’-destinations. That, however, in itself, is not necessarily a problem.
For those recovering regions, we would need to see - for domestic travel plus visitor arrivals:
-July. Minus 10-20% traveller-plus-arrival numbers.
-August. Minus 5-15%.

Our outlook
29 June 2020
The following extracted from our input for an external report.
What is your assessment of tourism performance in your destination/business the period January-April 2020 compared to what you reasonably would expect for that time of the year?
Much worse
What have been the main determinants for the evolution of tourism in this 4-month period?
Only one, covid. Even if there are other factors, this became essentially the only one.
What are your prospects for tourism performance in your destination/business in the period May-August compared to what you reasonably would expect for this time of the year?
Much worse. However, much better than the previous 4-month period, and getting better.
What will be the main determinants for the evolution of tourism in this 4-month period?
Still a supreme determinant - covid. But other factors will determine the beginning of recovery, although they are still related to covid. The first is access; if a border is closed, then zero travel. Then restrictions - some destinations are requiring money ‘bonds’, quarantine, etc. And as the situation is changing rapidly (sometimes daily), then would-be travellers will stick to ‘safe’. And they will determine what is meant by ‘safe’. Mostly, it will mean domestic travel. Sometimes nearby and ‘travel-corridor-clean’ destinations.
When do you think international tourism will recover?
By Q1 2021. Many assumptions, however, such as vaccine-found, no ‘big’ relapse, etc.
When do you think domestic tourism will recover?
By Q3 2020. But, note, boosted by reduced international outbound. And determined by the product - the US, say,  has a wider product choice for domestic travellers than, say, Belgium.
Do you think domestic tourism will compensate the temporary drop in international tourism in your destination?
Generally it will, although it depends greatly on the destination. As above about US/Belgium. For instance, Hong Kong will not do as well as the US.
  This is our calculation for AsPac:
If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xxx% of visitor arrivals


Market

Share*,%

Australia

47.8

China

173.7

Hong Kong

9.3

India

117.1

Japan

25.2

Korea

65.6

Singapore

22.4

Notes: Based on 2019 data. TBA=Travel Business Analyst. TBA manipulation on counts of inbound and outbound travel. China and Hong Kong include technically-domestic travel between China, Hong Kong, Macau. Source: DMOs for all except China (TBA estimates), Hong Kong (government for outbound), India (TBA estimates for outbound), Singapore (government).

Travel business updates
26 June 2020
[] WTO* reports that at June 15:
-A 22% share of the 141 destinations (that the WTO counts) had eased travel restrictions; it was 3% May 18. In the Americas 6 destinations, Asia Pacific 3, Europe 37.
-65% still had their borders closed. In the Americas 76%, Asia Pacific 67%, Europe 26%.
-At June 15, 24% of destinations had had travel restrictions for 19 weeks, 37% for 15 weeks.
*Notes:
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobby group for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* and TE* forecast have improved (meaning less bad) their forecast last-month for US hotels in 2020. Occupancy -36.2% (they say they forecast -45.0%, but our database shows -45.8%); average room rate +5.2% (+1.7%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-TE = Tourism Economics, US-based. Part of Oxford Economics, UK-based, and unrelated to the university.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
25 June 2020
[] WTO* reports on damage caused by the covid coronavirus:
-Arrivals - Jan-Apr -44%, April -97%, March -55%.
-Spend - Jan-Apr about -US$195bn.
-Jan-Apr arrivals - Americas -36%, Asia Pacific -51%, Europe -44%, World -44%.
*Notes:
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobby group for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) reports that US travellers booking short-term rentals took a 34% +4pts share in 2019. And 40% of those booking were under 35.

Travel business updates
24 June 2020
[] STR* reports on hotels:
-Central/South America May occupancy -73.0% to 15.3%, average room rate -34.3% to US$54.17.
-Asia Pacific May -47.3% 35.8%, -40.2% US$55.93.
-Europe May -82.3% 13.3%, -33.7% US$83 (€77.56).
-Middle East May -31.0% 36.0%, -45.6% US$87.84.
-US hotels June 14-20 -41.8% 43.9%, -31.7% US$92.20.
-US hotels revenue per available room in May was -88.3% to US$28.62.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -51.9%. 2. -57.4%. 3. -56.0%. 4. -48.9%. 5. -52.1%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
23 June 2020
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies:
-For May compared with May 2019: air tickets sold -US$198mn -102% (ie, refunds totalled more than sales); average US roundtrip ticket US$353 -$158; passenger trips 3.6mn -87% (domestic 2.7mn -84%, international 925.6k -91%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$1.4mn -81%; EMD transactions 28.6k -76%.
-For May compared with April 2020, (an ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +69%; passenger trips +67% (domestic +85%, international +30%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Travel deals done*. GD* reports on latest deals done by companies in the travel business. Findings:
-Deals Jun 8-14 27 (which we calculate +42.1%); Jun 1-7 19 (change not given); May 25-31 -31.3% (number not given); May 18-24 -38.5% (number not given); May 11-17 26 -3.7%; May 4-10 27 (growth not given). GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but these are over the previous weeks.
-GD information on locations is inconsistent, and some appears to be incorrect, viz:
   -It reported for Jun 8-14 that deals grew in Australia (not usually included), UK, US (numbers not given). China fell; India no change. No information given for the other market GD usually covers - Korea.
   -For May 25-31 deals fell in the UK and US (numbers not given). No information for China, India, Korea.
   -For May 18-24 deals fell in the US (number not given). Yet for May 11-17 GD did not note where the 26 deals it listed were done; we presumed the US. For that same week for China, India, UK it noted no deals. And for May 4-10, one deal each for China, India, UK.
   -For UK May 11-17 GD notes an ‘improvement’ - although for the previous week it reported zero deals. And it added that in Korea deal numbers were the same as the previous week - although it gave no number that previous week. In addition, GD made no reference to China, India.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

If outbound travel switched to domestic
22 June 2020
See table for our calculation. Excerpts:
-Both China and India would actually have more ‘visitors’ if some of its residents switched from travelling outbound.
-Biggest loser would be Hong Kong. In addition to our statistical finding, we believe that few (less than 5%?) of outbound travellers would switch to a domestic ‘break’.
-Likewise for Singapore.
-For Australia, Japan, and possibly Korea, we believe those switching to domestic would be greater than our statistics indicate.
-For India, our calculation indicates a gain for the inbound market if 40% switched.

If outbound travel switched to domestic
If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xxx% of visitor arrivals


Market

Share*,%

Australia

47.8

China

173.7

Hong Kong

9.3

India

117.1

Japan

25.2

Korea

65.6

Singapore

22.4

Notes: Based on 2019 data. TBA=Travel Business Analyst. TBA manipulation on counts of inbound and outbound travel. China and Hong Kong include technically-domestic travel between China, Hong Kong, Macau. Source: DMOs for all except Australia (government), China (TBA estimates), Hong Kong (government for outbound), India (TBA estimates for outbound), Singapore (government).

Travel business updates
19 June 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -50.90%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -90.3%. 4. -63.5%. 5. -78.4%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-7-13 June occupancy -43.4% to 41.7%, average room rate -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.
-17-23 May: -50.2% 35.4%, -39.7% US$80.92.
-10-16 May: -54.1% 32.4%, -42.4% US$77.55.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
[] GD* on Generation X in the UAE* about covid and travel.
-36% ‘strongly agree’ they have changed or cancelled domestic- and 41% international-travel. As we have noted about some earlier GD surveys, we cannot understand why this is a matter of ‘agreeing’; either they cancelled/changed, or they didn’t. We have seen no data, but we believe UAE domestic travel is small, under 1mn.
-65% remain ‘extremely concerned’ about covid. This may or may not be important for travel. Many would-be travellers are concerned about covid; but will they travel or not, and when?
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a data and analytics company.
-UAE = United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras al Khaimah, Sharjah, Umm al Quwain
-Wikipedia defines Generation X as those born around 1965-80, but some for those born 1960 through 1977-85. GD does not define the term.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel forecast to fall
18 June 2020
TE* forecasts for USTA* a -45% fall in total travel spend in the US this year. That is a bigger fall than the -31% expected in domestic and international travel. That means travellers are forecast to spend less when they do travel.
  This matches TE’s May forecast for STR* - a -46% fall in 2020 US hotel occupancy, then +46% in 2021.
  Other findings:
-Domestic traveller spend -40% to US$583bn.
-International visitor spend -75% to US$39bn, with most of the percentage fall from Overseas visitors, -69% to US$12bn. (Spend from Canada and Mexico visitors is bigger, totalling US$17bn.)
-Although recovery is forecast from 2021 in all sectors, some sectors are forecast to be below 2019 results at the end of this forecast period, 2023.
-Still below would be 2023 total visitor arrivals (although Canada and Mexico are forecast to have passed their 2019 totals). But 2023 spend is still forecast to be below 2019 - domestic and international.
-Of course, AAGRs (annual average growth rates) are forecast to be much slower. Of those, where our database has earlier forecasts, USTA forecast a +2.5% AAGR 2018-24 for visitor arrivals; now we calculate it forecasts a -4.9% AAGR over a different 2019-23. (Even if we extrapolate, an AAGR 2019-24 would still be negative, -1.7%.)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-TE = Tourism Economics. Part of Oxford Economics, and unrelated to the university.
-USTA = US Travel Association. Member- not government-funded. Acts as an industry association, not a promoting body such as a DMO.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel Trottings: A bumbling bureaucrat
17 June 2020
See https://wp.me/pTv9-qq
Excerpt:
...‘Our interpretation is that Guterres (Antonio, head of the United Nations) tells us that travelling can help the world recover from the damage caused by the covid coronavirus.
...‘Now for the most egregious countering fact - travel was the sole cause of the worldwide spread of covid. If the virus started in Wuhan, China, as generally believed, then it would likely have not gone further if the first carrier/s stayed in Wuhan. But they travelled, as did others, and so spread the virus worldwide.
...‘To have the chutzpah not only to ignore this fact, but to add that travel can help the recovery, seems shockingly irresponsible - if not plain stupid.’

TBA Tracking: Asia Pacific YTD visitor arrivals, resident departures
16 June 2020
A brief review of YTD counts*, growth only, for visitor arrivals in selected destinations, and resident/citizen departures from selected markets.
-Visitor arrivals - China -7%, Hong Kong -35%, Singapore -8%, Thailand 0.4%.
-Resident/citizen departures - China -12%, Japan -6%, Korea -16%, Taiwan +4%.
*Notes:
-January through March.
-Data from various sources, mainly DMOs, government departments, and most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

TBA Tracking
15 June 2020
Starting this week, and probably for at least the next one or two months, we have suspended most of our reports under this heading.
  This is because most current measures show falls of around 95-99%, and we believe that there is little marketing value in the information that one measure has fallen, say, -96.5% compared with -98.7% for another.
  In addition, those measures that arrive late, showing data from before the covid virus, or even at the start, are also almost irrelevant.
  We plan to restart as falls begin to vary - -30% here, but still -80% there. Hopefully, that will probably be from next August for some of the missing reports.

WTTC on job/business losses
12 June 2020
The WTTC* has reissued forecasts on job losses due to the covid coronavirus. Its earlier forecasts, in late-April, contained mistakes, some of which we refer to here.
  WTTC did not respond to our questions, and so we were unable to provide all corrections. Its reissued forecast is better presented than its first, although some mistakes are repeated.
  WTTC has forecast for three different scenarios, see below. Its current forecast for the worst-case (see below) includes:
-198mn (WTTC also reports 197mn) travel jobs will be lost due to covid. Previously WTTC did not clarify the period; its new forecast is for 2020. It earlier forecast -101mn job losses, but as the period was not provided, we cannot determine how its current forecast compares with the previous one. WTTC presents this as ‘new research’ and as a +96% growth from the -101mn jobs lost, so it would appear to be the same period, thus 2020.
Regions:
Regions in the ‘worst case’ (numbers rounded by Travel Business Analyst):
-Americas. -30mn (WTTC also reports -31mn) jobs lost (in April it forecast -14mn), -US$5.5tn loss in TGDP (travel GDP) (-US$791bn).
  We cannot understand the 7x difference between the old and new GDP forecasts, particularly as job losses are under 2x.
  Previously, we calculated that sub-regions North America, Latin America, Caribbean, were included in the Americas total. WTTC did not clarify that, but now it does.
  However, WTTC’s geographical knowledge on the Americas remains wrong - surprising given the fact that the organisation’s head is from Mexico! To explain (again), Mexico is part of North America as well as WTTC’s (non-geographical and technically incorrect) ‘Latin America’ (think of the three non-Latin ‘Guyanas’).
  We presume WTTC has not double-counted Mexico’s total, but that it has (wrongly) excluded the country from North America and included it in Latin America.
-Asia Pacific. -115mn -$1.9tn TGDP (-63mn -$1041bn). ThePacific’ was not shown in the earlier report; we presumed it was included in the Asia total but not so marked. WTTC has corrected what we now know was an error.
-Europe. -30mn -$1.6tn TGDP (-13mn -$709bn).
-Sub-region North America -18.2mn -$1.5tn TGDP (-8mn -$681bn).
Scenarios:
[] Worst-case. Current restrictions starting to ease from September for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from October for medium-haul, from November for longhaul. WTTC forecasts that this would cause a -73% fall in arrivals, and -64% in domestic travel - presumably for all-2020. WTTC notes domestic ‘arrivals’, but it is not clear if this is for arrivals in accommodation units, or something different.
[] Mid-case. Current restrictions starting to ease from June for regional travel, from July for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from August for medium-haul, from September for longhaul. That would cause a -53% fall in arrivals, and -34% in domestic travel.
[] Best-case: Current measures starting to ease from June for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from July for medium-haul, from August for longhaul. That would cause a -41% fall in arrivals, and -26% in domestic travel.
*Notes:
-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business. It terms all this a travel GDP (gross domestic product), which we usually reduce to TGDP.
-Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
-WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-WTTC reports that the travel business in 2019 represented a 10% (330mn) share of jobs, 25% of new jobs, 10.3% of world GDP.
-At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Hotel business updates
11 June 2020
[] STR* reports:
-On Berlin hotels in May: occupancy -88.0% to 10.0%, average room rate -28.6% to US$83 (€76.84).
-On Sydney hotels in May: occupancy -71.6% to 23.1%, average room rate -41.1% to US$78 (A$122.01).
-On US hotels 31 May-6 June: occupancy -45.3% to 39.3%, average room rate -35.9% to US$85.01.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

Travel business updates
10 June 2020
[] Malta forecasts its 2020 visitor arrivals will not reach 25% of the 2.8mn in 2019. That would be about 688k. Its airport, shut March 20, is due to open July 1.
[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts:
-That Turkey’s hotel market will be US$1.6bn at end-2026. No growth given. We presume this is hotel revenue.
-RM adds that in 2019, Turkey ‘has named the 6th most visited country across the globe hosted a large number of tourists’ (sic). We believe RM means that Turkey counted 51mn visitors in 2019, which was 6th after France Spain US China Italy - according to our database. It would be 5th if WTO did not include domestic travel from Hong Kong and Macau into China proper.
*Notes:
-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] A study by Travel Agent Central on US travel found:
-50% plan to take their next vacation this year - 18% summer, 24% autumn, 8% (not clear). 43% plan for 2021, 7% plan for 2022.
-Of those travelling this year 45% will fly, 25% drive, 18% cruise. We presume the balance is undecided.
-Of the main international destinations, 38% are ‘interested’ in Europe, 34% Caribbean, 15% Mexico.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
9 June 2020
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in May for US hotel companies was 3232 +1.7% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -38.7%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 144. Previous month: 139.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 125. Previous month: 123.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241. Previous month: World 129, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 119, US 223.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 111. Previous month: 99.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 80. Previous month: 81.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Travel business updates
8 June 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -49.91%. 2. -55.11%. 3. -53.37%. 4. -47.52%. 5. -49.97%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
5 June 2020
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports April RPKs -94.3%, ASKs -87.0%, load factor 36.6% -46.6pt.
  RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -88.5%, Europe -98.1%, Middle East -97.3%, North America -96.6%.
  International RPKs -98.4% - Asia Pacific -98.0%, Europe -99.0%,, Middle East -97.3%, North America -98.3%.
  Domestic RPKs -86.9% - Australia -96.8%, Brazil -93.1%, China -66.6%, Japan -88.7%, Russia -82.7%, US -95.7%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels 24-30 May: occupancy 36.6% (-43.2%), average room rate US$82.94 (-33.3%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

TBA Tracking: Visitor-spend in Europe; Eurotunnel traffic; Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
4 June 2020
Visitor-spend in Europe, latest
A brief ‘main-points’ review* of latest visitor-spend counts, growth only:
-Austria +5%, France +5%, Germany +2%, Greece +13%, Italy +7%, Russia -5%, Spain +3%, Switzerland +2%, Turkey +18%, UK +7%. Europe +1%.
*Notes:
-Months are usually for larger/significant cities/destinations, latest available. All are January through December.
-Data from various sources, mainly Tourmis, WTO, and destinations.
-Most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Eurotunnel traffic, latest
A brief ‘main-points’ review* of latest Eurotunnel, growth only:
-Eurostar passengers. Q1 -20%.
-Cars transported. Q1 -14%.
-Buses transported. Q1 -30%.
*Notes:
-Eurotunnel releases some data monthly and other data quarterly. Here, we show only quarterly data.
-Excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 99 in April. Index previous month 90. Index end-2019 170.
  Comments:
-There was recovery in April, with six of our seven stocks growing. Only Lastminute fell.
-However, bad in that three are still below their base price - cTrip, Expedia, Trivago.
-All seven are still below their pre-covid prices, this past January, and seem unlikely, statistically, to catch up for at least 3/4 months.
*Notes:
-NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Apr 20

Dec 19

stock

market

Company

All

Amadeus

43.9

72.8

1.7

2.0

133

135

Booking╪

1481

2054

10.1

15.4

130

132

cTrip

25.8

34.9

14.4

10.4

55

56

eDreams

2.15

4.27

15.9

2.0

130

132

Expedia

71.0

108

26.1

10.4

83

84

Lastminute

21.4

46.0

-0.5

3.4

143

145

Trivago

1.83

2.62

25.3

10.4

16

16

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed 2018; was Priceline. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Travel business updates
3 June 2020
[] GD* reports on latest deals done by companies in the travel business. Findings:
-Deals -31.3% (number not given) May 25-31; -38.5% (number not given) May 18-24; 26 -3.7% May 11-17; 27 (growth not given) May 4-10. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but these are over the previous weeks.
-GD information on locations is inconsistent, and appears to be incorrect, viz:
   -It reported for May 25-31 that deals fell in the UK and US (numbers not given). No information was given for the other markets GD usually covers - China, India, Korea.
   -For May 18-24 deals fell in the US (number not given). Yet for May 11-17 GD did not note where the 26 deals it listed were done; we presumed the US. For that same week for China, India, UK (markets selected by GD) it noted no deals. And for May 4-10, one deal each for China, India, UK.
   -For UK May 11-17 GD notes an ‘improvement’ - although for the previous week it had reported zero deals. And it adds that in Korea deal numbers were the same as the previous week - although it had given no number that previous week. In addition, GD made no reference to the other two markets - China, India.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a data and analytics company.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] UK-based Technavio, a research company, forecasts India’s ‘travel services’ market will grow +18.1% this year, and +US$56bn over 2020-24, a 19% AAGR (annual average growth rate).
  These are the same figures as its forecast in early-March. Given the disruption caused by the covid virus, this damages the credibility of forecast.
*Notes:
-We understand that ‘travel services’ means travel agencies, on- and off-line. This would normally include domestic-, inbound-, outbound-travel.
-Data as shown; nothing to put these growth figures into context.
-In March it also forecast that 82% of growth would be from online. We do not know if that forecast is maintained.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, Technavio had not answered our request for clarifications.
[] Starting this year, the Lufthansa group reports traffic results quarterly rather than monthly. Those for Q1 along with April have just been released. Excerpts:
-Seat sales 21.8mn -26.1%. April 241k -98.1%.
-Seat load factor 73.3% -4.7 pts. April 47.5% -35.8ots.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] New data from the WTO* indicates that visitor-spend growth in Europe in 2019 was slower than generally accepted. WTO does not give growth (perhaps it is waiting for final figures) but it puts spend at US$574bn, which we calculate would be +0.9%. Arrivals grew +4.0%.
*Notes: WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO) is a lobby group for the travel business).

TBA Tracking: Airline financial results; passenger counts to/from Singapore and Sydney; and to/from AsPac to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK
2 June 2020
Airline financial results compared
Our results database compares latest airline results against our calculated non-industry-standard measures*. For Japan Airlines US$314 US$22 (year earlier US$316 US$37), Singapore Airlines US$297 US$14 (US$326 US$14).
*Notes:
-Extract shows revenue-per-seat-sold and operating-profit-per-seat-sold, in US$ for latest reported fiscal year; whole groups where relevant.
-Data from airlines, and most excerpted from the current Asia Pacific edition of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Air passenger counts to/from Singapore and Sydney
A brief ‘main-points’ report on latest YTD* air passenger counts* to/from Singapore, Sydney over selected country/regional-pairs in Asia Pacific, Europe, UAE/Dubai, US. Growth only:
-To/from Singapore: China -61%, Hong Kong -58%, Japan -30%, Thailand -36%, UK -15%. Europe -17%, Middle East -66%, North America -14%, Oceania -15%, South Asia -24%. All -33%.
-To/from Sydney: Auckland -18%, Bangkok -33%, Beijing -54%, Denpasar -0.3%, Hong Kong -39%, Singapore -13%, Tokyo -19%. Dubai -8%, London -3%, Los Angeles -13%. All -20%.
*Notes:
-Data is for January through March.
-Data from Singapore Dept of Statistics, Dept Transport & Communications (Australia), and most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Air passenger counts to/from AsPac to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK
A brief ‘main-points’ report on latest YTD* air passenger counts* to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK over selected country-pairs to/from Asia Pacific. Growth only:
-To/from Australia: China -55%, Hong Kong -39%, India -3%, Japan -12%, Korea -29%, Singapore -16%, Thailand -9%. UAE -10%. All -18%.
-To/from France (Paris only): China -67%, Hong Kong -63%, India -47%, Japan -39%, Korea -42%, Singapore -43%, Thailand -31%. UAE -35%. All -46%.
-To/from Germany: China -54%, Hong Kong -52%, India -22%, Japan -30%, Korea -28%, Singapore -16%, Thailand -4%. UAE -17%. All -23%.
-To/from UK: Australia -5%, China -31%, Hong Kong -18%, India -22%, Japan +8%, Korea -12%, Singapore -4%, Thailand +4%. UAE +6%. All +0.4%.
*Notes:
-Different months, which currently can make a big difference. January through February for UK (its CAA is running behind with data, and still not correcting mistakes we have found for Dec 19), through March for Australia and Germany, through April for France.
-Data from Dept Transport & Communications (Australia), Aeroports de Paris, Statistisches Bundesamt (Germany), Civil Aviation Authority (UK).
-Most excerpted from the current Asia Pacific edition of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks; what’s going on?
1 June 2020
Commentary (numbers below):
-Stockmarkets - the only measure we track that is not specifically travel-business - grew only +3%. But most travel stocks grew faster.
-The Travel Weekly index, comprising only US travel companies, was +4.9%, effectively the same as our composite index of US markets, +4.6%.
-Surprising was the fall in Asia Pacific - in all sectors. General commentary has been on the region’s recovery-mode; the end of the lockdown. Do these falls indicate that the market believes that recovery for the travel business will take longer?
-China stocks provide no clarity - +1% for travel stocks quoted in China, but -1% for China travel stocks quoted in China and outside. That said, that difference is not great.
-As usual, some big movements twist the total. For US airlines, for instance, American was -13%. Remove that, and the all-airline fall becomes +1%.
-With Hertz shutting down, its stock was down -75%, but are investors switching to rival Avis, +31%?
-Boeing was up a cautious +3%, but rival Airbus seems to be shutting down production of its pride, the all-new double-deck new-technology A380, which probably prompted the -2% fall in the company’s stock price.
-Travel-tech had a good month, with only Last Minute falling, -6%. However, all except China’s cTrip are still well down on their end-2019 prices, even hallowed Booking -20% and Expedia -26%.
-Some strange moves for airlines in Asia. The top-4 China airlines (we now include Cathay in that category) fell badly, minus 14-19%. Yet Singapore was -37%, almost as bad as -44% at Thai, which is in bankruptcy protection. And no longer, it seems, can Air Asia do-no-wrong; down -15%, and -59% since end-2019.
-Europe’s top-3 no-frills-airlines did well - Easy +13%, Ryan +7%, Wizz +14%. In the US, Southwest was +3%.
-TUI is storming ahead - +33% in Frankfurt, +38% in London. Is there a bid coming, or a break-up?
-The two giant hotel groups performed differently - UK-quoted InterContinental +7%, US-quoted Marriott -3%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241. Index previous month: World 129, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 119, US 223. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 80. Index previous month 81. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 111. Index previous month 99. Index end-2019 170.
Numbers - Sectors:
-Asia Pacific. Airlines -9%, Hotels -3%, Others -5%.
-Europe. Airlines +3%, Hotels +8%, Others +5%.
-US. Airlines -1%, Hotels +4%, Others +5%.
-China +1%.
-China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -1%.
-Travel-tech +15%.
-Stockmarkets +3%.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel business updates
29 May 2020
[] Finbold reports* on the drone business:
-Investments in 2019 US$1.2bn +67%, of which venture-capital (VC) funding represented US$930mn, a 68.9% share.
-Total funding 2008-19 US$4.43bn, of which VC funding was US$3.46bn. (Finbold gives the wrong share percentage, 68.9%; on these figures we calculate it at 78.1%.)
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on hotel results:
-On Asia Pacific hotels in April: occupancy -60.3% to 28.0%, average room rate -44.8% to US$54.97.
-On Europe hotels in April: occupancy -84.6% to 11.1%, average room rate -30.1% to US$83.35 (€77.52).
-On Middle East hotels in April: occupancy -58.0% to 31.2%, average room rate -35.1% to US$95.54.
-On US hotels 17-23 May: occupancy -50.2% to 35.4%, average room rate -39.7% to US$80.92.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
28 May 2020
[] Global Data reports on latest deals done* by companies in the travel business. Findings:
-Deals -38.5% (number not given); 26 -3.7% May 11-17; 27 (growth not given) May 4-10. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but these are over weeks earlier.
-GD information on locations is inconsistent, and appears to be incorrect, viz:
  -It notes for May 18-24 deals fell in the US (number not given). Yet for May 11-17 GD did not note where the 26 deals it listed were done; we presumed the US. For that same week for China, India, UK (markets selected by GD) it noted no deals. And for May 4-10, one deal each for China, India, UK.
  -For UK May 11-17 GD notes an ‘improvement’ - although for the previous week it had reported zero deals. And it adds that in Korea deal numbers were the same as the previous week - although it had given no number that previous week. In addition, GD made no reference to the other two markets - China, India.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[]  Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts outbound travel from India to GCC countries will be US$12bn 'by 2025’ - meaning in 2024 - from 7.7mn travellers. In August 2019 it forecast US$24bn.
  It gave no traveller-number in August 2019, but we presume this also has been lowered by 50%. However definitions have changed (‘outbound tourism’ then, ‘outbound travel’ now; we do not know if RM has its own definitions.
*Notes:
-GCC=Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
27 May 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -46.95%. 2. -51.97%. 3. -49.93%. 4. -44.90%. 5. -46.99%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.
-May 3. 1. -81.8%. 2. -89.5%. 3. -91.1%. 4. -74.0%. 5. -82.5%.
-April 26. 1. -91.5%. 2. -94.8%. 3. -95.9%. 4. -88.5%. 5. -91.3%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Done deals
26 May 2020
Global Data reports on deals* by companies in the travel business in April:
-Deals done 57 -50% (GD rounded) over average of last 12 months.
-Deals done worth US$4.86bn +67.4% over March, and -45.2% over average of last 12 months, which was US$8.86bn.
-North America top, US$2.81bn.
-Top-5 ‘tourism & leisure’ (T&L) deals share 81.5%, worth US$3.96bn. We do not know GD’s definition, such as how ‘travel’ is different to T&L.
-Top-5: Apollo and Silver Lake US$1.2bn private-equity deal with Expedia; Silver Lake and TPG Sixth Street US$1bn private-equity deal with AirBnB; Legend Capital’s US$1bn venture financing of Qingju; Broadscale (plus Ervington, Exor, 83North, Hearst, Macquarie Capital, Mori Trust, Pitango, Planven, River Park, Shell Ventures) US$400mn venture financing of Via Transportation; Midnight Acacia’s US$357.42mn private-equity deal with Crown Resorts.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.
-We have shortened the name of some companies.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Traveller travel plans
25 May 2020
[] A study on residents by Oliver Wyman* found:
-51% of potential travellers in the US (Oliver Wyman* reports as ‘American’, but indications are that this is not passport-defined) are comfortable flying, compared with 48% staying in a hotel, 46% dining in restaurants. OW reports that a higher percentage is more comfortable driving than flying, but does not give the figure.
-Most comfortable with flying (no figures) are those in China, Australia, then the US. Those in Italy are the least comfortable. No data.
-64% said improvements in health and cleaning of rooms and public spaces would significantly influence their decision to stay at a hotel.
-80% prefer a large hotel compared with 57% for home rentals. (China 94% and 49%, US 83% and 61%. This finding looks contradictory because home rentals would likely be preferred because the customer is not close to others. Perhaps the OW question was closely linked to disinfections - where hotels would reasonably be expected to be cleaner than rented homes.
-People in China, Italy, Spain, US, are most likely to travel domestically. No data.
-75% of those in the US who travel for business intend to travel the same or more when restrictions are lifted.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-Oliver Wyman is a consulting firm.
[] A study on residents in France (QAPA* reports as ‘French’, but indications are that this is not passport-defined) found:
-78% still want to take their summer holidays.
-76% will stay in France. (But that response could be because they do not know if foreign travel will be allowed.)
-Only 11% plan to go to PACA (broadly the south), No 4. Ile-de-France (broadly Paris) 6% No 6. (Likewise, that response could be because Paris is the only major area - apart from some of France’s colonies, technically ‘France’ - still with strict restrictions at the time of the survey.)
*Notes:
-*QAPA is a website for part-time workers.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
22 May 2020
[] A study by Likibu* on travel this summer by residents in France found:
-Enquiries/searches +50% (presumed May 11-17 over May 4-10).
-89% of searches for Jul/Aug holidays are for France; 3% Spain, Italy 1.5%. In 2019 its bookings were for France 30%, Spain 19%, Portugal 12%, Italy 11%, Greece 5%, Croatia 3%.
-Searches for PACA (broadly the south), among the main regions (our selection) were up only +9%. Paris not shown.
*Notes:
-France-based Likibu is a search-engine for holidays for France residents. It has 5mn offers, and links with Home Away, Booking, in six languages.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Global Data reports on deals done* by companies in the travel business. Findings:
-Deals 27 (growth not given) May 4-10; 26 -3.7% May 11-17. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but latest one is over previous week.
-China, India, UK, one deal each May 4-10; zero May 11-17. GD did not note where the 26 deals were done; we presume the US.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel business updates
21 May 2020
[] STR* reports/forecasts:
-On Los Angeles hotels. End-March it forecast May occupancy at 25.7%, June 25.6%, July 37.4%. At May 3 it changed those forecasts to 15.6% 22.0% 31.6%.
-On US hotels 10-16 May: occupancy 32.4% -54.1%, average room rate US$77.55 -42.4%.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business.
[] Hotel Management reports on CBRE data/forecasts for US hotels:
-2019 occupancy 66.1% -0.1%, average room rate (ARR) US$131.11 +0.9%.
-2020 41.0% -38.0% (HM/CBRE have also reported -37%). Luxury hotels 33.4%, economy hotels 46.4%; other categories not shown. ARR US$101.67 -22.5%.
-Q2 2020 occupancy 26.2%. Other data not shown.
-2021 55.9% +36.3%, ARR US$110.69 +8.9%.
[] STR* and TE* have again revised downwards their forecasts for US hotels:
-In 2019 occupancy was -0.1%, average room rate +0.9%.
-2020 forecast: -45.8% -21.6%.
-2021: +45.5% +1.7%.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-TE = Tourism Economics is part of Oxford Economics, and unrelated to the university.
-STR/TE also report hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
[] ARC* reports for US-based travel agencies for April (any rounding by ARC): air tickets sold -US$648mn -107% (ie, refunds totalled more than sales); average US roundtrip ticket US$336 -$163; passenger trips 2.18mn -92% (domestic - 1.46mn -92%, international 712k -93%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$845k -90%; EMD transactions 11k -90%.
*Notes: ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

Travel business updates
20 May 2020
[] Reports from Global Data*:
AirBnB
-Domestic bookings in Denmark in May were 90% of the previous month, in the Netherlands 80%. We are unclear of dates - whether 1st week of May compared with same in April, or whole month.
Spain
-Forecasts 2020 visitors will total 50.2mn. We calculate that would be -40.0% on WTO’s 2019 figure that GD uses - 83.7mn.
UAE
-56% cancelled upcoming trips. We are not sure if this fact is as clear as it appears because GD also reports:
-those that ‘strongly agree’ with that ‘cancelling’ statement grew +2% over the past week, and +8% over the week before. To us travellers cancelled or didn’t, and it is not a question of agreeing.
*Notes:
-A full report on these topics in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

TBA Tracking; China outbound - monthly
19 May 2020
We estimate that outbound travel from China, including travel to Hong Kong and Macau, fell -86.5% in the latest month. The earlier month was +3.0%, then +5.9% +7.0%, +2.1%, +6.7%. Details in the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Travel business updates
18 May 2020
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in April at 112k -98.3%, YTD 17.2mn -36.8%.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. 1. -45.19%. 2. -50.09%. 3. -47.98%. 4. -43.34%. 5. -45.13%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] LM Holdings (nee Last Minute) reports Q1 revenue US$75.6mn (€70.3mn) -12.9%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers. See https://wp.me/pTv9-q8
15 May 2020
Excerpt:
If outbound travel from selected markets in Europe switched to domestic


Market

Share*,%

 

Of inbound

Of domestic

Austria

15.4

38.0

Belgium

57.5

138.1

Denmark

21.8

23.3

France┼

11.8

6.3

Germany

111.7

27.2

Greece

1.2

6.1

Italy

9.3

10.6

Netherlands

43.9

35.3

Poland

26.0

10.7

Spain

7.9

4.7

Switzerland

52.2

91.8

UK╪

67.1

19.5

Notes:
-TBA manipulation on ES counts on outbound and domestic travel, and on WTO counts on inbound travel.
-*If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xx% of the annual inbound-visitor or domestic-traveller count.
-┼ES has also given an implausible, but unexplained, figure that would near double the shares shown.
-╪Based on 2013 data; even before it decided in 2016 to leave the European Union, the UK cooperated poorly with EU institutions.
Source: ES=Eurostat, TBA=Travel Business Analyst, WTO=World Tourism Organization.

France, Spain summer forecasts
14 May 2020
Home Exchange (HE) and Happydemics (together, HH) have forecast summer travel plans for the France and Spain markets. (HH reports as ‘French’ and ‘Spanish’, but indications are that this is not passport-defined.) Some findings:
[] France.
-49% plan to take a summer holiday. That is -20pts on a 2019 study by Trip Advisor (TA).
-21% have no plans; 13% will not take a summer holiday.
-76% will travel in France, with 15% internationally. We presume the 9% balance is undecided.
-58% will stay in their own holiday home, family home, or private home. HH commentary indicates this is to avoid hotels or holiday centres, to avoid crowding, but no data given. This share looks high, and as it is HE’s business area, perhaps the survey recipients were targetted.
[] Spain.
-43% plan a summer holiday - but with the (cancelling-out) proviso of ‘if the situation gets better’. No comparison given with 2019.
-62% plan to travel in Spain, 27% internationally. As this is 100%, the shares must be of those who plan to travel. In 2019 TA reported 39% planned their summer vacation in Spain. We do not know if we can deduce from this that the 2019 international share was 61%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, HH had not answered our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
13 May 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. 1. -43.01%. 2. -47.81%. 3. -45.62%. 4. -41.30%. 5. -42.89%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.
-May 3. 1. -90.2%. 2. -94.3%. 3. -95.4%. 4. -86.4%. 5. -90.8%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports:
-On London hotels in April: occupancy -73.0% to 21.9%, average room rate -38.9% to US$108 (£87.18).
-On Melbourne hotels in April: occupancy -62.8% to 28.8%, average room rate -32.8% to US$74 (A$115.22).
-On US hotels 3-9 May: occupancy -55.9% to 30.1%, average room rate -42.1% to US$76.35.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business.
[] WTO* reports:
-100% of the world’s 217 destinations have restrictions on visitor arrivals, and 72% have stopped all arrivals.
-In 25% of destinations, visitor restrictions have been in place for at least three months. In 40%, restrictions were introduced at least two months ago.
-No destination has lifted or eased visitor restrictions.
-In Europe 83% of destinations have stopped all arrivals; in the Americas 80%; Asia Pacific 70%. 
*Notes:
-WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO), is a lobby group for the travel business).
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers
12 May 2020
Bernstein* appears to have taken OECD data to calculate winners and losers in dollars if international outbound travel this year switches to domestic travel.
-Top-3 losers - Spain -US$52.4bn, US -US$52.0bn, Turkey -US$32.5bn.
-Top-3 gainers - China +US$238.0bn, UK +US$31.4bn, Germany +US$30.3bn.
*Notes:
-Bernstein is a respected US-based research company, but at press time, it had not answered our request for clarifications.
-We believe its data is for 2018 and takes, say, visitor inbound spend, and deducts outbound spend by residents. We do that with WTO data and get US$55bn for Spain - close to Bernstein’s US$52bn.
-More complicated is China. Does Bernstein include Hong Kong and Macau, which are technically domestic areas? Again, our calculation is US$243bn without HK&M, which appears to indicate HK&M are not included in Bernstein’s China total.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Europe airports; Air passengers France/Germany/UK; Travel Stock Indices
11 May 2020
Airports in Europe
A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest YTD* airport-passenger throughputs*, growth only, usually for larger airports:
  Main airports: Amsterdam -3%, Berlin (two) -10%, Frankfurt (two) -5%, Istanbul (two) +0.1%, London (five) -2%, Madrid +6%, Moscow (three) -3%, Paris (two) -59%, Rome (two) -9%.
  ‘Low-fare airports’ (LFAp*): Berlin Schonefeld -12%, Dublin +2%, London Luton -5%, London Stansted -0.1%, Milan Bergamo +1%, Palma +2%, Paris Orly -59%, Rome Ciampino +4%. All +0.2%.
*Notes:
-January through February. Currently, a month makes a big difference, so those counts through March are Paris (two), Paris Orly.
-Data mainly from ACI (Airports Council International), some directly from airports, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
-LFAp - those with sizeable portion (broadly, 25%) of no-frills-airline traffic.
Air passenger counts in France, Germany, UK
A brief ‘main-points’ report on latest YTD* air passenger counts* to/from France, Germany, UK over selected country-pairs in Europe, UAE, US. Growth only:
-To/from France (Paris only): Germany -25%, Italy -34%, Spain -21%, UK -19%. UAE -11%, US -20%. All -25%.
-To/from Germany: France -24%, Italy -36%, Spain -26%, UK -29%. UAE -17%, US -19%. All -23%.
-To/from UK: France +4%, Germany -9%, Ireland +1%, Italy -1%, Spain -1%. UAE +7%, US +2%. All +0.4%.
*Notes:
-January through March for France, Germany; through February for the UK.
-Data from Aeroports de Paris, Statistisches Bundesamt, Civil Aviation Authority, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Indices, Travel Stocks
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in April for US hotel companies was 3177 +15.6% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -39.7%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 139. Previous month: 125.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 123. Previous month: 122.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 129, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 119, US 223. Previous month: World 119, Asia Pacific 41, Europe 116, US 200.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 99. Previous month: 90.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 81. Previous month: 75.
*Notes:
-STR=Smith Travel Research.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

WTO 2020 forecast
8 May 2020
The WTO* forecasts all-2020 visitor arrivals (what it terms ‘international tourism’) minus 60-80%. Other data/forecasts:
-Details: World -22% Q1 2020, against +4% all-2019; AsPac -35% +4%; Europe -19% +4%; Americas -15% +2%.
-Fall in Q1 visitor spend (what WTO terms ‘exports’) -US$80bn. It also reports that figure for only March. Our database shows annual total US$1.5tn, so a monthly average US$122bn, but normally around US$100bn monthly in Q1.
-March visitor arrivals -57%.
-WTO’s 2020 forecast-falls are based on three different scenarios: 1, gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July, -58%; 2, same but in early September, -70%; 3, same but in early December, -78%.
-Fall in 2020: visitor arrivals, minus 0.85-1.1bn; visitor spend minus US$0.91-1.2tn.
-Direct ‘tourism’  jobs at risk 100-120mn. Unclear how WTO measures this, as some travel-industry jobs include not just those related to the inbound visitor business but also, say, domestic and outbound.
  WTO also asked some managers in the travel business to forecast:
-Q1: When do you expect tourism demand in your destination will start to recover? Contradiction with other data, some of which comments just on the inbound visitor business, and some of which are unclear.
-Q2: When do you expect international demand for your destination will start to recover? Different from Q1 in that this seems to be for the inbound visitor business.
    -Selected findings, Q1: May-Jun (domestic 14%, intl 3%); Jul-Sep (45%, 24%); Oct-Nov (25%, 34%); 2021 (15%, 39%).
    -Q2: May-Jun (AsPac 4%, Europe 2%, Americas 0 %); Jul-Sep (26%, 28%, 10%); Oct-Nov (31%, 31%, 40%); 2021 (39%, 39%, 50%).
*Notes:
-WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO), is a lobby group for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
7 May 2020
[] The Air Asia group Q1 seats sold 18.7mn -17.4%. This is our calculation of the total; AA does not show a combined total.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Travel Mole reports April casino gaming revenue in Macau was US$94mn -97% (quoted in US$), YTD -68.7% (total not given).
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Our counts* on selected UK-registered airline companies shows percentage UK traffic growth*: British Airways +1.2%; Easyjet +26.7%; FlyBe -5.6%; Jet2 +18.3%; Norwegian Air +28.3%; Thomas Cook -24.0%; TUI Airways +9.4%; Virgin Atlantic +6.1%; Wizz Air +812.7% (sic).
*Notes:
-Our processing of CAA data. Seat sales 2019. Names shown may not be full formal name. Includes all airlines registered under relevant group.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels 28 April - 4 May 2019: occupancy -58.5% to 28.6%, average room rate -44.0% to US$74.72.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in April/May for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -38.33%. 2. -43.07%. 3. -40.85%. 4. -36.79%. 5. -38.05%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-May 3. 1. -81.8%. 2. -89.5%. 3. -91.1%. 4. -74.0%. 5. -82.5%.
-April 26. 1. -91.5%. 2. -94.8%. 3. -95.9%. 4. -88.5%. 5. -91.3%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Travel traffic AsPac/Europe/US/world; Visitor arrivals AsPac; Airports AsPac
6 May 2020
Travel Traffic, Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world
Our ‘TBA Travel Industry Indices’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows the following monthly traffic growths*.
-World. 2020: Jan +2.9%E. 2019: Dec +4.4%P; Nov +3.3%; Oct +1.1%; Sep +1.6%; Aug +1.9%.
-Asia Pacific. 2020: Jan +3.6%E. 2019: Dec +4.5%P; Nov +5.2%; Oct +4.5%; Sep +4.3%; Aug +2.9%.
-Europe. 2020: Jan +1.7%E. 2019: Dec +3.5%P; Nov +3.2%; Oct +1.7%; Sep +2.4%; Aug +3.0%.
-US. 2020: Jan +3.1%E. 2019: Dec +5.4%P; Nov +1.7%; Oct +2.4%; Sep +2.5%; Aug +2.7%.
*Notes:
-Aggregates of airline seats sold, airline RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency sales, visitor arrivals.
-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.
Visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific, latest
A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest visitor-arrival counts*, growth only, usually for larger destinations:
-Australia +5%, Bali -0.3%, Hong Kong -72%, India -22%, Japan -51%, Korea -47%, Maldives +1%, Singapore -23%, Thailand -20%, Vietnam -18%.
-Selected destinations outside Asia Pacific: UK +3%, US -27%.
*Notes:
-January through February. Currently, a month makes a big difference, so those counts through March are India, Japan, Korea, US; through December for UK.
-Data from various sources, mainly WTO, DMOs, government departments, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Airports in Asia Pacific
A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest YTD* airport-passenger throughputs*, growth only, usually for larger airports:
  Main/significant airports: Bangkok Suvarnabhumi -32%, Delhi +7%, Hong Kong -56%, Mumbai +3%, Seoul Incheon -42%, Singapore -1%, Sydney -7%, Tokyo Narita -26%.
  Selected airports outside Asia Pacific: London LHR -18%, New York JFK +2%.
*Notes:
-January through March. Currently, a month makes a big difference, so those counts only through February are Delhi, Mumbai, Singapore, Sydney; through December for New York.
-We collect most data directly from airports or relevant aviation authority.
-Most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
5 May 2020
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 90 in March. Previous month 137.
  Comments:
-Not surprisingly, all of our seven stocks fell.
-Also not a surprise is that all fell faster than their local stockmarket - because the travel business has probably been hit hardest.
-Our analysis this month stops there - as all has been overwhelmed by the covid coronavirus.
*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and four in the US - one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20


Company

Price,local currency

 

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Mar 20

Feb 20

Jan 20

Dec 19

Dec 18

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

Amadeus

43.2

62.5

70.8

72.8

60.8

40.7

-30.9

-23.0

131

145

Booking╪

1345

1729

1831

2054

1722

1275

-22.2

-14.0

118

131

cTrip

22.5

34.9

34.9

34.9

27.1

46.8

-25.9

-19.7

48

53

eDreams

1.85

3.67

4.42

4.27

2.38

1.90

-49.6

-23.0

112

124

Expedia

56

96

108

108

113

124

-41.4

-19.7

66

73

Lastminute

21.5

35.8

44.4

46.0

17.5

13.1

-39.9

-7.7

144

160

Trivago

1.46

1.82

2.63

2.62

5.63

na

-19.8

-19.7

12

14

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed 2018; was Priceline. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, May
4 May 2020
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.
[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 122; Feb 170; Jan 202. TBA.
[] World airport passengers, intl: 2020: Jan +2.7%. 2019: Dec +4.9%; Nov +2.7%. ACI.
[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Feb -14.1%; Jan +2.4%. 2019: Dec +4.5%. IATA.
[] World air traffic, intl RPKs: 2020: Feb -10.1%; Jan +2.5%. 2019: Dec +3.8%. IATA.
[] World hotel occupancy, pts: 2020: Jan -2.8. 2019: Dec +1.8; Nov +1.6. TBA.
[] World hotel rooms planned (new system): 2020: Jan +3.5%. 2019: Nov +26.8%; Jul +21.3%. STR/TBA.
[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 130; Feb 176; Jan 191. TBA.
[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 119; Feb 176; Jan 203. TBA.
[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 93; Feb 137; Jan 156. Net Value.
[] World visitor arrivals: 2019: Dec +2.3%; Nov +2.9%; Oct +3.2%. WTO.
[] AsPac airlines seat sales: 2020: Jan +0.5%. 2019: Dec +2.7%; Nov +3.0%. AAPA.
[] AsPac airport passengers, intl: 2020: Jan +1.0%. 2019: Dec +7.6%; Nov +2.3%. ACI.
[] AsPac air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Feb -41.3%; Jan +0.4%. 2019: Dec +3.5%. IATA.
[] AsPac air traffic, intl RPKs: 2020: Feb -30.4%; Jan +2.5%. 2019: Dec +3.9%. IATA.
[] AsPac hotel occupancy, pts: 2020: Jan -7.1. 2019: Dec +0.6; Nov +0.9. TBA.
[] AsPac hotel rooms planned (new system): 2020: Jan +4.4%. 2019: Nov +20.7%; Jul +27.0%. STR TBA.
[] AsPac outbound travel, estimate: 2019: Dec +3.2%; Nov +3.0%; Oct +3.2%. TBA.
[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 41; Feb 54; Jan 69. TBA.
[] AsPac visitor arrivals: 2019: Dec +1.3%; Nov +1.7%; Oct +2.1%. TBA/WTO.
[] Europe airlines seat sales: 2019: Dec total +3.4%, FSAs +1.7%, NFAs +5.5%. TBA.
[] Europe airport passengers, intl: 2020: Jan +3.6%. 2019: Dec +4.4%; Nov +3.1%. ACI.
[] Europe air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Feb +0.7%; Jan +1.6%. 2019: Dec +2.5%. IATA.
[] Europe air traffic, intl RPKs: 2020: Feb +0.2%; Jan +1.6%. 2019: Dec +2.6%. IATA.
[] Europe hotel occupancy, pts: 2020: Jan -1.6. 2019: Dec +4.5; Nov +3.9. TBA.
[] Europe hotel rooms planned (new system): 2020: Jan +12.2%. 2019: Nov +44.3%; Jul +52.4%. STR TBA.
[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 116; Feb 172; Jan 208. TBA.
[] Europe visitor arrivals: 2019: Dec +2.3%; Nov +3.5%; Oct +3.8%. WTO.

TBA Tracking: April travel stocks shocks
1 May 2020
Commentary (numbers below):
-Following our special reporting on travel-stock prices in March, this is the ‘morning after’. True to form, it is a bit hazy.
-As our report for March, and possibly for the next 2/3 months, this report does not follow our normal style - because these are not normal times.

-In April, some stocks fell around -50%, and some grew around +50%.
-But of those ‘big-growth’ stocks (above +20%), only two were above their end-2019 prices:
     -Jinjiang Hotels - in China; its Hong Kong price was still below its end-2019 price, and
     -Thai Airways. It started gaining around mid-March. But although above end-2019, it is still -40% below its end-2018 price.
-In the US there was a big mix of results:
     -Overall, travel stocks did better than all stocks - markets grew +11% including the Travel Weekly index at +14%.
     -Las Vegas stocks did well (+13% to +48%), probably in the expectation of the early reopening. And so they may fall again if the expected 2nd-still-1st wave of covid infections happens.
-US-quoted cruise lines also had a big bounce (+23% to +52%), but they are still over -60% their end-2019 prices. Another cruiser is Hong Kong-quoted Genting (owns Star Cruises and part of Norwegian Cruises). Its results were similar - +60% April, -30% over end-2019.
-Airlines grew but some bad falls. In AsPac the only falls were Japan’s two, ANA and JAL. In Europe, Norwegian -43% and an eye-watering -86% over its end-2019 price! In the US, the biggest fall was Southwest’s -12%. Does the market think no-frills-airlines will fare worse?
-No-frills-airlines. In AsPac, Air Asia got a cautious +3%, but is still half its end-2019 price. In Europe, Easy’s +6% was bettered by Ryan’s +13%. In the US, see above for Southwest.
-China’s airlines. Hard to see logic. Air China’s growth was weak in Hong Kong, but good in China. The opposite for the biggest, China Southern, and China Eastern. Continuing to fall was HNA, -6%, but it is more than an airline - as well as having obscure financing and ownership.
-Car rental. Avis a good +24%. Is Hertz, -35%, in deep trouble?
-Hotels. AsPac hotels all grew, +4-22%.  Europe pulled down by NH’s -21%; excluding that, growth was +4%. US hotels all grew, +13-49%.
-Travel-Tech. Only one fall, Lastminute. It is holding back on refunding cancelled travellers; is the market worried about its survival? But although down on its end-2019 price, it is +22% on its end-2018 price. Perennial loser Trivago was almost the fastest-growing - but still -84% off its 2016 market-launch year.
-Both Airbus and Boeing continued to fall.

  Sector movements in travel stocks:
-Asia Pacific. Airlines +25%, Hotels +11%, Others +26%.
-Europe. Airlines +1%, Hotels -2%, Others +3%.
-US. Airlines +7%, Hotels +28%, Others +15%.
-China +13%.
-China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +12%.
-Travel-tech +13%.
-Stockmarkets +5%.
  Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel business updates
30 April 2020
[] PATA* forecasts for Asia Pacific:
-2021 visitor arrivals 610mn - which would be +3% (PATA rounded) over 2019. A week earlier, PATA forecast 500mn -32% visitors for 2020. As these numbers do not synchronise, we assume PATA is basing the two sets of forecasts on different numbers of destinations - see Notes below.
-2021 Asia +5.6% over 2019.
-2022 (note different year from others) Pacific +10.5% over 2019.
*Notes:
-PATA = Pacific Asia Travel Association, a regional promotional body.
-PATA counts 46 destinations. However, some of its reports/forecasts are based on fewer destinations, and this is not always clarified.
-In addition, many of its destinations are those not usually associated with Asia Pacific – such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, US, and sometimes Turkey (yes). PATA’s reports/forecasts should thus be read with that qualification in mind.
-The top-5 destinations, in order, are China, US, Hong Kong, Turkey, Macau. We have problems with all five. We believe Turkey and US should not be included in an Asia Pacific travel study. And China, Hong Kong, Macau are all ‘China’ - a fact endorsed by PATA adding the moniker ‘SAR’ (Special Administrative Region, of China) for HK&M. Thus many of these ‘visitors’ are actually domestic travellers.
-PATA might be unwilling to make a change that would probably upset all three destinations – likely to ‘lose’ millions of visitors (50mn total?). Also, China not only likes to come top in any ranking, but dislikes even more being down-rated.
-PATA gives no support (including response to questions) to non-member subscription publications such as ours, and so we are unable to clarify what may be misleading.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Business Travel News reports on OAG* air capacity data:
-World airline capacity w/b 28th +2%.
-Capacity this week 29.2mn seats; 110mn seats same period 2019.
-160 airlines that were flying 10 weeks ago are not flying now. This is not necessarily the same as bankruptcy.
-91 airlines – BTN notes Iberia, KLM, Lufthansa, Qantas – are operating at 10% of their normal capacity.
-Domestic flight share is 85%.
*Notes:
-OAG (formerly/formally Axio Aviation Holdings; nee Official Airlines Guide) provides comprehensive data on airline flights from 900 airlines and 4000 airports. Its flight-status database provides 35mn flight status updates daily, and processes 1.4mn requests. It is owned by UK-based Vitruvian Partners, a private-equity firm.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Cirium* reports air capacity data:
-China’s April 22 domestic air capacity -33% (base date not given); February 24 it was -71%, the lowest.
-World airline end-April capacity -30% compared with same period 2019.
-Asia April 22 capacity +10% over week earlier.
-16,800 passenger aircraft parked on April 22 - 66% of world fleet. Over the same period, China accounted for 40% of the 1000 passenger aircraft that returned to service. We are surprised that another 600 re-entered service, given that flights outside China do not appear to have restarted.
*Notes: Cirium is a UK-based data and analysis company owned by Relx (sic).
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports March RPKs -52.9%, ASKs -36.2%, load factor 60.6% -21.4pt.
  RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -59.9%, Europe -51.8%, Middle East -46.0%, North America -49.8%.
  International RPKs -55.8% - Asia Pacific -65.5%, Europe -54.3%, Middle East -45.9%, North America -53.7%. Domestic RPKs -47.8% - Australia -40.2%, Brazil -32.2%, China -65.5%, India -11.8%, Japan -55.8%, Russia -15.4%, US -48.1%.
[] STR* reports on US hotels 19-25 April: occupancy -62.2% to 26.0%, average room rate -42.9% to US$73.61.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in April for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -37.45%. 2. -42.09%. 3. -39.76%. 4. -36.08%. 5. -37.12%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-April 26. 1. -91.5%. 2. -94.8%. 3. -95.9%. 4. -88.5%. 5. -91.3%.
-April 19. 1. -91.9%. 2. -95.0%. 3. -95.8%. 4. -89.3%. 5. -91.7%
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] A Travel Agent Central report on US travel-plans study* by Apple Leisure Group (which is unrelated to Apple Inc) includes:
-78% had cancelled a trip because of the covid coronavirus. Of those, 46% planned to rebook, 31% were unsure about rebooking.
-46-54% (varied according to different surveys) would travel anywhere in the US in the next three months.
-23-31% would travel only within 30km of their home.
-13-16% would travel anywhere in the world.
-8-11% would travel only in North America.
  TAC/ALG have not attempted to match these findings with pre-covid patterns. To us, the findings indicate the international segment would be greater - but North America is a mix of domestic and international destinations, and the breakdown is not shown in the TAC/ALG surveys.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Full-year results
29 April 2020
Selected* (by TBA) 2019 counts from our database. All sourced from relevant principles except Air Asia (our additions of available data), Europe inbound (from Tourmis).
US
Aviation
[] New York JFK AP passengers 62.6mn +2%.
[] Southwest AL seats sold 134.0mn -1%.
Inbound
[] Hawaii 10.3mn +5%.
[] US 40.4mn +1%.
ASIA PACIFIC
Aviation
[] Air Asia (group) seats sold 92.1mn +13%.
[] Air China (group) seats sold 114.8mn +5%.
[] Cathay (group) seats sold 35.2mn -1%.
[] China Eastern (group) seats sold 121.2mn +9%.
[] China Southern (group) seats sold 151.6mn +8%.
[] Hong Kong AP passengers 71.5mn -4%.
[] Japan AL seats sold 35.5mn +2%.
[] Qantas (group) seats sold 56.4mn +1%.
[] Singapore AL (group) seats sold 38.1mn +7%.
[] Singapore AP passengers 69.8mn +3%.
Inbound
[] Australia 9.5mn +6%.
[] Bali 6.2mn +3%.
[] Hong Kong 12.1mn -14%.
[] India 10.9mn +3%.
[] Japan 31.9mn +2%.
[] Maldives 1.7mn +15%.
[] Singapore 19.1mn +3%.
Outbound
[] Australia 11.3mn +2%.
[] Japan 20.1mn +6%.
[] Korea 28.7mn +0.1%.
[] Singapore 10.7mn +3%.

EUROPE

Aviation
[] Air France (not group) seats sold 52.5mn +2%.
[] British AW (not group) seats sold 47.7mn +2%.
[] Easyjet seats sold 96.7mn +9%.
[] Frankfurt AP passengers 70.6mn +2%.
[] London Heathrow AP passengers 80.9mn +1%.
[] Lufthansa (not group) seats sold 71.3mn +2%.
[] Paris CDG AP passengers 76.2mn +5%.
[] Ryanair seats sold 150.2mn +7%.
[] Turkish AL seats sold 74.5mn +3%.
Inbound
[] Berlin 5.5mn +1%.
[] Germany 39.6mn +2%.
[] Madrid 5.4mn +4%.
[] Paris 12.8mn -3%.
[] Switzerland 9.2mn -11%.
[] UK 38.9mn +3%.
Outbound
[] UK 73.0mn +2%.

*Notes: Additional entries due in next month’s WYSK, with a selection included on this site.

WTTC wrong counts
28 April 2020
The WTTC* has issued estimates/forecasts on job losses due to the covid coronavirus that appear to include some mistakes.
  We believe these apparent mistakes are the result of poor presentation, not poor data. As WTTC has not responded to our questions, we are not able to provide corrections.
  It reports/forecasts:
-In one month 25mn jobs lost in the travel business. Period not clear; presumed Mar 25-Apr 24.
-Job losses in the travel business +30% in the last month. Period not clear; presumed Mar 25-Apr 24.
-101mn job losses due to the covid coronavirus. Period not clear.
-Economic loss US$2.7tn off world GDP; it forecast US$2.1tn end-March. Period not clear; presumed 2020.
-1mn jobs lost daily. Period not clear.
  WTTC has also provided regional breakdowns, although these also hide apparent mistakes, see below. (Numbers rounded by Travel Business Analyst.)
-Regions: Americas -14mn jobs lost, -US$791bn loss to GDP; Asia -63mn $1041bn; Europe 13mn $709bn; Middle East 3mn $96bn. Sub-region North America 8mn $681bn.
-Pacific not shown; we presume this is included in the Asia total but not so marked.
-We calculate that sub-regions North America, Latin America, Caribbean, are included in the Americas total - although WTTC does not clarify that.
-Mexico is part of North America and WTTC’s non-geographical Latin America. We presume WTTC has not double-counted Mexico’s total, but that it is (wrongly) excluded from North America and included in Latin America.
*Notes:
-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business.
-Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
-WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
27 April 2020
[] ICAO*, via Travel Mole, forecasts:
-Air travellers will fall -1.2bn ‘by this summer’. No further precision; we assume this is air seats sold.
-‘Demand’ (we assume this is air seats sold) -66% Jan-Sep. Airline revenue -US$250bn.
*Notes: International Civil Aviation Organization, the United Nations body administering world aviation.
[] STR* reports:
-On Asia Pacific hotels in March: occupancy -59.5% to 28.3%, average room rate -17.6% to US$80.82.
-On Middle East hotels in March: occupancy -51.5% to 35.6%, average room rate -19.3% to US$114.88.
-On US hotels 12-18 April: occupancy -64.4% to 23.4%, average room rate -42.2% to US$74.53.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business.

Asia Pacific visitor forecasts
24 April 2020
PATA* forecasts:
-Visitor arrivals in 2020 in Asia Pacific 500mn -32%; fall ranging from -16% to -44%.
-Regions. Americas -12%, Northeast Asia -51%, South Asia -31%, Southeast Asia -22%, West Asia (believed to be Middle East) -6%, Pacific -18%. Asia data not given.
-Visitor spend in 2020 in Asia Pacific US$594bn -27%. PATA’s earlier forecast was US$811bn.
-Regions. Americas expected to lose -US$35bn -13% in visitor spend, Asia -US$170bn -36%, Northeast Asia -US$123bn -48%, South Asia -US$13.3bn -33%, Southeast Asia -US$34.6bn -20%, Pacific -US$18bn -18%. West Asia data not given.
*Notes:
-PATA = Pacific Asia Travel Association, a regional promotional body.
-PATA’s 46 destinations include many not usually associated with Asia Pacific – such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, US, and sometimes Turkey (yes). PATA’s data should thus be read with that qualification in mind.
-The top-5 destinations, in order, are China, US, Hong Kong, Turkey, Macau. We have problems with all five. We believe Turkey and US should not be included in an Asia Pacific travel study. And China, Hong Kong, Macau are all ‘China’ - a fact endorsed by PATA adding the moniker ‘SAR’ (Special Administrative Region, of China) for HK&M. Thus many of these ‘visitors’ are actually domestic travellers.
-PATA might be unwilling to make a change that would probably upset all three destinations – likely to ‘lose’ millions of visitors (50mn total?). Also, China not only likes to come top in any ranking, but dislikes even more being down-rated.
-PATA gives no support (including response to questions) to non-member subscription publications such as ours, and so we are unable to clarify what may be misleading.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

New IATA 2020 forecasts
23 April 2020
IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts for 2020:
-Revenue loss by Europe’s airlines in 2020 -US$89bn, RPKs -55%. (March 24 forecasts, US$76bn, -46%.)
-Current 90% fall in air traffic puts 6.7mn jobs at risk (JAR), and a GDP impact of -US$452bn in Europe.
  Forecasts for top-5 biggest-fall markets:
  -France. Forecast -80mn fewer seats sold, -US$14.3bn revenue loss, 392.5k JAR, -US$35.2bn contribution to France’s GDP.
  -Germany. -103mn -US$17.9bn 483.6k -US$34bn.
  -Italy. -83mn -US$11.5bn 310.4k -US$21.1bn. 
  -Spain. -114mn -US$15.5bn 901.3k -US$59.4bn.
  -UK. -140mn -US$26.1bn 661.2k -US$50.3bn.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
22 April 2020
[] Dubai Airports has just released 2019 traffic counts. We have found mistakes in its earlier reports, thus we cannot determine veracity of the current data.
  It reports 86.4mn -3.1% passengers handled - which matches our count on data released earlier.
  Earlier, it reported its Q3 count as a -4.5% fall. It was actually -2.4%; the -4.5% was for YTD. Its Q1 count was correct at -2.2%, and its mistake in Q2 was fractional - -9.2% instead of the actual -9.3%.
[] Global Data, a data and analytics company, reports deals done by companies in the travel business April 6-12 were +21.1% over the week earlier.
[] Virgin Australia has filed for bankruptcy protection. This should not have been a surprise.
  In 2017, based on its 2016 results, we wrote ‘Virgin Australia looks weak, perhaps even threatened’.
  Two of VA’s important foreign owners were the UAE’s Etihad and China’s HNA - both in trouble. Etihad has shut down most of the foreign airlines in which it had shares. And HNA has shut down or sold many of its foreign acquisitions.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in April for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Ticket volume. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -34.13%. 2. -38.76%. 3. -36.26%. 4. -32.95%. 5. -33.73%
In 7-day periods through:
-April 19. 1. -91.9%. 2. -95.0%. 3. -95.8%. 4. -89.3%. 5. -91.7%
-April 12. 1. -96.1%. 2. -93.8%. 3. -96.3%. 4. -92.6%. 5. -93.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTO’s 2020 visitor/spend forecasts
31 March 2020
WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO, a loose lobby group for the travel business) forecasts for 2020:
-Visitor arrivals will fall 20-30%. Our database shows a 2019 total of 1.46bn +3.8%, which would mean 1.02-1.17bn arrivals, a 29-44mn fall.
-Visitor spend minus US$300-450bn -33%. Our database shows a 2018 (2019 not available) total of US$1462bn +5.7%; 2019 would probably have been US$1560bn. WTO’s forecast would put the 2020 total at US$1110-1260bn, a 19-28% fall.
-In 2009, the year following the worldwide financial fall, visitor arrivals fell -4%. In 2003, the year of the SARS coronavirus outbreak mainly contained in Asia, arrivals fell -0.4%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Our Air Asia 2019 counts
23 March 2020
The Air Asia group (AAG) sold 92.1mn +12.5% seats in 2019.
  These are our counts on AAG-released data. AAG does not provide all this data (for instance, releasing growth percentage only, not totals, on some measures), and does not add all AAG airlines. Air Asia X, for instance, is counted separately. Our total includes all.)
  Other findings:
-That growth compares with +15.9% in 2018, +13.0% 2017.
-The primary Malaysia division (excluding AAX) still accounts for a large share - 38% 2019, 39% 2018, 41% 2017.
-Of the two newest divisions, India seat sales were just short of 10mn +35.6%, and Japan just short of 500k +85.3%.
-Japan’s seat factor too low, at 79%; should be closer to 85%.
-AAX seat factor seriously low, at 81%. We believe it should be in the high-80s.
-The Thailand division, once a star performer seemingly on track to catch Malaysia, now slipping. Growth only +2.7% in 2019. Share 24%, 26% in 2018, 28% 2017.
-Indonesia, after some bad years earlier in the decade, grew +37.9%. But its total, 8.0mn, is not much better than the 7.9mn it counted in 2013.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

SELECTED ENTRIES - MOSTLY SUPERCEDED TRAVEL COUNTS, AND FORECASTS OUTDATED DUE TO COVID-19 - DELETED STARTING HERE

 

IATA on the Covid coronavirus
6 March 2020
IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports:
-2020 drop in passenger revenue US$63-113bn. That’s $63bn if Covid is contained in current markets with over 100 cases by 2 March; $113bn if a broader spread of Covid.
-Earlier analysis (on 20 February) put lost revenues at US$29.3bn - which assumed Covid would be largely confined to markets associated with China.
-Airline share prices have fallen 25% since the outbreak began, 21pts more than the fall at a similar point in the SARS coronavirus in 2003.
  Our data is for a different period. Our data shows February airline share prices fell -12% for airlines in Asia Pacific (excluding China), -27% Europe, -23% US. Conversely, all categories of travel stocks (including airlines) in China grew - by +10%, and for all China-based travel stocks (wherever quoted) +5%.
-Forecast market falls, annual: Italy -24%, China -23%, Iran -16%, Korea -14%, Japan -12%, France -10%, Germany -10%, Singapore -10%.
-Forecast market falls, annual: Asia (excluding China, Japan, Korea, Singapore) -11%, Europe (excluding France, Germany, Italy) -7%, Middle East (excluding Iran) -7%.
-Of missed US$63bn revenue, China would account for US$22bn. Markets associated with Asia (including China) would account for US$47bn. We do not know why the totals add up, but we believe perfect precision is not necessary in this case.
-Extensive Spread - markets that at 2 March had at least 10 confirmed Covid cases. The US$113bn missed revenue would be on a financial scale equivalent to losses in the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
-Forecast market impact if extensive spread of Covid:
   -Australia, China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam: seat sales -23%; passenger revenues -US$49.7bn.
   -Rest of Asia Pacific: -9% -$7.6bn.
   -Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, UK: -24% -$37.3bn.
   -Rest of Europe: -9% -$6.6bn.
   -Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, UAE: -23% -$4.9bn.
   -Rest of Middle East: -9% -$2.3bn.
   -Canada, US: -10% -$21.1bn.
-Positive. Oil prices have fallen -US$13/barrel since start-2020. This could cut US$28bn from the airlines’ fuel bill this year.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.


Cote d’Azur in 2019
28 February 2020
CRT* reports 2019 visitor results for France’s Cote d’Azur* (CDA). Much categorisation is different from what CRT reported for 2018; when relevant, we have added information on 2018 from our database.
  Details (any rounding by CRT):
-CRT did not report number of stays (= visitors) in 2019, but reported 11mn in 2018.
-Growth of domestic stays in some categories (see below) compensated for the fall in foreign.
-Hotel stays 4.5mn +2.4% - ‘stable’ Jan-Sep, grew +9% Oct-Dec.
-Hotel nights (not specified if guest- or room-nights) 10mn +1.4%. Occupancy 63% +1pt. CRT also reported 63% +1pt in 2018; its rounding might have caused this apparent discrepancy.
-3-star hotel nights +5% (number not given); occupancy 64% +2pts. 4/5-star hotel nights (number, growth, not given); occupancy, 65% +0.5pt.
-Hotel nights by France nationals +5%, foreigners 'almost unchanged'. (Hoteliers register nationality and residence, but report the less-important nationality count - as does CRT.)
-Accommodation nights in mountain locations were +4% Oct-Dec. Other categories not given.
-Number of foreigners 58% -2pts. We are not clear how this figure (presumably hotel occupancy, but possibly market share), is measured, nor whether it is important marketing information.
-Private accommodation 1.2mn stays; growth not given.
-Holiday resorts 0.6mn -5% stays.
-Of foreign markets, most were ‘stable’ or ‘changed marginally’. Specified: Japan +20%, Russia +9%, Middle East -26%. In 2019, CRT provided no analysis on China - the world’s largest travel market.
-Main foreign markets, reason for order not given: Italy +3%, UK/Ireland (CRT still combines these, even more anachronistic as the UK leaves the European Union and Ireland stays in) -3%, Germany ‘stable’, US +1%.
-Top-5 foreign markets for all types of accommodation, in order - Italy, UK/Ireland, US, Germany, Scandinavia (CRT sometimes wrongly includes Finland in ‘Scandinavia’; specifics not given here).
-Visitor spend (including accommodation, meals, shopping, excursions) down (figure not given). Share of visitors who spend more than US$83 (€75) daily was below 50% (figure not given).
-In 2018, CRT gave hotel rates (via the MKG consultancy), but these were for all France, not CDA. Growth was +3% in 'average price’ (we believe this is ‘average room rate’).
-In 2018, the visitor business was 15% of the region's GDP. Change not given, nor share in 2019.
-90% of visitors were ‘very satisfied’ with their stay in 2019. Those who were not satisfied fell by 50%. Data to put these in context not given.
-Nice airport (which the CRT reports as though it is the only airport for CDA, although there are 10 smaller ones handling commercial flights) counted 14.5mn +4.6% passengers.
-Two markets have priority for CRT promotional activity this year - Russia, US (despite weak direct air links).
*Notes:
-Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is that - brand identity.
-CRT (Comite Regional de Tourisme Cote d’Azur), the regional visitor office for the Cote d’Azur.
-At press time, CRT had not answered our request for clarifications.
 
Cirium and STR on Covid and SARS
24 February 2020
[] Cirium* reports on Covid affect:
-200,000 flights cancelled or removed from schedules to, from and within China.
-January 23 to February 18 99,254 scheduled flights, 89% domestic, cancelled.
-January 23-28, 9807 scheduled flights, 100% domestic, cancelled.
-For the first eight weeks of the year, Cirium reports worldwide capacity fell -0.9%. Weeks 8-10 showed a -10% fall, of which China’s airlines cancelled 60% of their flights.
-Most-affected airlines over January 23 to February 18: Lucky Air, with 51.2% of flights cancelled out of 4857 scheduled; China Southern, 53.8% of 44,274; Xiamen, 56.2% of 14,495.
-Most-affected airports: Wuhan, with 94% of flights cancelled (meaning 3443 flights). Percentage not given for others - Urumqi 4506 flights cancelled; Guiyang 4321; Changsha 4757; Hangzhou 6084.
*Notes: Cirium is a UK-based data and analysis company owned by Relx (sic).
[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on the SARS coronavirus in China in 2003:
-Lowest occupancy was May, 18%, with average room rate at US$73.58 (at today’s US$1 to Y7.04).
-August 67% US$78.41.
-Beijing May occupancy 10%, July 52%, August 65%, September 72%. 
-Guangdong (province) July 56%. Other months not given.
-Hong Kong July 60%, August 75%.
-Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai July 60%.

ICCA and IATA on the Covid coronavirus
20 February 2020
[] ICCA* reports:
-1065 meetings this year in Asia Pacific in its system.
-44 meetings affected by Covid, a 4.1% share.
-34 postponed, five cancelled, five relocated.
-Outside Asia Pacific, two meetings in Europe and one in Africa are postponed.
[] IATA* reports:
-RPKs for Asia Pacific airlines -13% for all-2020. Original forecast was +4.8%, so net impact will be -8.2%.
-Revenue loss -US$27.8bn, of which -US$12.8bn in China’s domestic market.
-Airlines outside Asia Pacific forecast to lose -US$1.5bn, bringing total worldwide revenue loss to -US$29.3bn, -5% lower passenger revenues compared to what IATA forecast end-2019, meaning -4.7% fewer RPKs.
-In December, IATA forecast +4.1% worldwide RPK growth, so this loss would result in a -0.6% worldwide fall for 2020.
-In 2003, the SARS coronavirus caused a -5.1% fall in RPKs of Asia Pacific airlines. 
*Notes:
-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.
-International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body.

ATF; Asean Tourism Forum; Brunei blocks Asean
20 January 2020
This time of the year, we usually report on travel product and travel marketing developments in the 10 Asean* destinations.
  This year, the Brunei host-committee for the Asean Travel Forum this month in Brunei, blocked attendance by Travel Business Analyst.
  Our first reaction was disappointment, then umbrage. Then on reflection, perhaps this is a better way. We espouse liberalism in the travel business, so that should be applied to coverage of travel industry events.
  But there are other factors, most important is that Brunei should not decide for Asean.
  Organisers need to think the reason for media attendance in the first place – to encourage editorial coverage of travel-related developments in the 10 destinations, not just the host destination.
  As it is, we will wait until ITB in Berlin in March to get the information we usually collect at ATF. But, because of ITBB logistics, we will probably not cover some smaller destinations that are also less important to Asean – say Brunei, Laos, Myanmar.
  There needs to be a change in rules for host destinations.
  Asean should give host committees their 'must' list of media (and probably of other hosted sectors as well, such as buyers). This can be companies as well as individuals. For instance, TTG Asia could be on the 'must' list as could, say, some named media people.
  If a person or company is on the host destination’s 'banned' list, then the host committee would have to transmit its reasons for the 'no', and Asean could decide whether to accept those reasons or not.
   Incredibly, Brunei's host committee does not have to transmit to anyone why we were delisted. So it could have been one person on the committee who said no, or other reasons. But without knowing those reasons, there is little we could do to change the decision.
  As a result, Brunei - representing about 5% of Asean's travel business - has prevented us from reporting on the 95%. Worse, no one in Asean cares whether this is a good or bad situation.
  We are prompted to write this because of our own experience, but the reasons are professional. For sure this has happened to other people in other destinations.
  Hosting an Asean event is a privilege, and a service to Asean. But Brunei appears to have ignored both those factors.
*Notes:
-Asean = Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean writes ‘Southeast’, even though that should make the abbreviation ASAN). Asean members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
-We did not seek comments from Asean for this report. Unfortunately, our experience is no acknowledgement, and never have we received a comment. We believe that despite the economic importance of the travel business to many of the 10 destinations, matters of state, not economics, get most attention.

Americas outbound 2019
16 January 2020
Excerpts from II* findings on outbound travel from Latin America (LAm) and North America (NAm) over Jan-Aug.
  See Notes below, which include important caveats and qualifications.
-LAm -3% (II rounded). Number not given. Negatively affected by ‘high-volume’ Mexico (total not given, but our database shows almost 20mn arrivals in the US alone), -5%.
-NAm growth +4.5%. Number not given. Boosted by travel from the US (II uses the term ‘US-Americans’), +6%.
-All Americas growth +3.5%.
-Travel to Europe +7% (from the Americas). Travel to Spain +11%, Italy +10%. These two destinations are believed to have been listed because they were the fastest-growing; they are not the largest.
-Outbound travel within the Americas grew +3%. Trips to Asia also +3%.
-‘Holidays’ grew +5%; now 60% share. Business travel fall -1%; share not givenII do not make clear if it records other categories, such as VFR; no other categories are shown.
-The following categories are believed to be sub-categories under ‘holidays’ as above. City Breaks +10%, ‘Holidays in the Country’ +9%, Cruises +6%, ‘Round Trips’ +5%, ‘Sun & Beach’ -1%. 
-IPKI forecasts LAm outbound to grow +1% this year, NAm outbound +3%. Base (all 2019 or Jan-Aug) not clarified.
*Notes:
-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.
-A common fault with II reports concerns Mexico. II do not seem to be aware that Mexico is part of North America. They often include it in Latin America (correct, although LAm is not a geographical term and which II do not clearly define), but then comment separately on North America. Does II’s NAm include or exclude Mexico?
  We believe II exclude Mexico from North America, because they include it in LAm. (And sometimes in South America, which is wrong.)
-For ‘holiday travel’, we believe II mean non-business travel, sometimes known as ‘leisure travel’.
-In 2019, II introduced ‘roundtrips’ as a category in some reports. There has been no further definition although the term makes little sense, as presumably around 95% of trips are roundtrips.
-Also added are ‘Holidays in the Country’ (not clear if this is same as a previously-used category, ‘Countryside’, but definitions not known.
-In some reports, II have had a category ‘tour [sometimes ‘touring’] holidays’ (II have also never defined this, and as it is open to interpretation, we wonder how those questioned defined it).
-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

WTTC on medical tourism
19 November 2019
Excerpts from a WTTC* report on medical tourism:
[] US largest market for inbound and outbound spend.
[] US outbound spend, share 20%. US nationals spent US$2.3bn in 2017. Not clear how WTTC can separate-out non-citizens living in the US, and also add US nationals living in other countries.
[] Kuwait 2nd largest outbound spend US$1.5bn in 2015. Note 1, that year is different from US dates, 2, not specified whether Kuwait nationals only, or whether including the large number of foreigners living in Kuwait.
[] Nigeria 3rd largest outbound spend US$783mn in 2017, a 13.5% share of total outbound spend. Not the same category as for the US, which is share of total medical spend.
 [] 'Leading' (no other definition) emerging destinations for spend - Turkey, Thailand, Jordan, Costa Rica, Mexico. Reason for order not given.
[] Spend on international medical tourism US$11bn in 2017, up +358% since 2000. We calculate that as +9.4% AAGR (annual average growth rate).
[] Medical-spend share 1.2% of total visitor spend in 2017; 0.6% in 2000.
[] WTTC names Europe markets in the top-10 - Netherlands, France, Belgium, Austria, Germany. Again, reason for order not known. Spend in each of the five is put at US$300-678mn.
[] Inbound US spend US$4bn in 2017, a 36% share of medical tourism spend.
[] Following the US, largest inbound spend France US$800mn, Turkey US$763mn.
[] 'Emerging economies' for medical tourism noted were Thailand US$589 million 1.0% share of inbound visitor spend, Costa Rica US$451mn 12.1%, Mexico US$315mn 1.5%.
[] Inbound spend; five are European countries, with Belgium, the UK and Hungary joining France and Turkey, spending US$417-636mn.
*Notes: WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business.

Europe's domestic travel
26 September 2019
Eurostat (ES) has released domestic-travel data* for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from each market, they are not always comparable one to the other.
  We compare 2018 data with our database for 2017 to calculate progress.
  Unfortunately, the domestic market that is probably the EU's 4th biggest, the UK (after France, Germany, Spain), has been uncooperative with ES - even before its decision to leave the EU. Latest data for the UK is from 2013.
  Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):
-ES shows that France’s total fell -13%. We assume this is wrong, and that there has been a change in definitions.
-Because of that reported fall in France, there is a fall in the total markets already filed of -1.9%. Germany is a big enough market that its results will likely turn that into a small growth. We calculate Germany's growth in 2018 was +4-5%.
-Exclude France, and the total for the 18 grew +5.3%.
-Largest market reported so far is France; that reported -13.2% represents 26mn fewer travellers.
-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 50mn): Italy grew +20%. Spain, the EU’s 3rd-largest, grew only +1%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, ES had not answered our request for clarifications.

Europe's outbound travel
25 September 2019
Eurostat (ES) has released outbound-travel data* for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from the market, they are not always comparable one to the other. And they do not always identify special cases - such as heavy work related border crossings.
  To date, 19 of the 31 markets have reported their 2018 data to ES. We calculate that this represents 45% of the total. The big market missing is Germany, which alone has an 30% share of the total. Germany should report within the next month.
  Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):
-Growth on those markets already filed is +5.8%. Germany is a big enough market that its results could change that total growth. We calculate Germany's growth in 2018 was +0-2%.
-Largest market reported so far is France; its -7.4% represents 2mn fewer travellers.
-Of the others, falls were recorded only for France and Norway -0.9%.
-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 10mn): Italy grew +26%, Netherlands with 20.9mn is on track to become larger than France, 26.3mn, in 2020. Spain grew +15%.
-Among medium markets (5-10mn): Czech R +9%.
-Among smaller markets (under 5mn): Estonia +61.7%, Bulgaria +23.9%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Russia outbound
26 July 2019
Some findings on the Russia outbound market, by RMAA (Russian Marketing and Advertising Agency):
[] 69% of respondents buy air tickets online. Almost as widespread as the US, where it is 77%.
[] If a traveller watches a video about their trip before travelling, 65% watch YouTube, 24% an airline video, 20% Facebook, 12% OTA, and then others.
[] Among those who flew domestically, 43% did not use offline at all, 28% used offline and online.
[] Digital travellers made up their mind faster: 31% of them decided to buy a ticket within several hours.
[] 60% use PC or laptop, 8% smartphones.
[] 53% travel on vacation in couples, 28% travel alone, 8% in a group.
[] 51% decide on a trip within several days of travel (not enumerated, NE). 15% book tickets for travel after a few hours (NE) after booking a flight. 8% buy tickets several months (NE) before a departure.
[] For 70%, the cost of the ticket is a priority.
[] 30% are members of loyalty programs.
[] 40% go on vacation in Europe, 31% domestic.
[] 38% take a 2-week vacation, 36% one week.
[] 33% of travellers change their mind on which airline during the booking process, 56% book tickets of the company that they considered from the beginning, 39% choose different offers at the end of the process.
[] 32% buy tickets of only one airline.
[] 72% rely on their experience, 2% on advertising, 9% word-of-mouth, 10% online search.
[] Of those that are loyalty program members, 45% always fly one airline, 12% would look only at offers from one airline, 43% considered offers from other airlines but eventually booked the original one.
[] For those who are not members of a loyalty program, the shares were 25% 30% 44%.

More meetings counts
19 June 2019
ICCA* has issued more data on its report for 2018. We include some baseline data here, but brief because ICCA’s data is based on single-year counts.
  Our main analysis is based on multi-year results. We are motivated by those working in the MICE segment of the travel business – who tell us that single-year figures can be misleading. As a result, we calculate average-annual totals based on 5-year periods - to balance out distortions caused by unusually-big or -small events in one year.
  Surprisingly, the industry itself still works on annual figures! Even more surprising is that in 2013 ICCA said it was following our lead and tracking results in 5-year averages. Despite that, all its analysis and observations continues to be based on single-year figures!
  Our report on this topic is due to be included in the August issue of our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. This contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

  Some excerpts from ICCA’s single-year data:
-Barcelona counted most participants, although, as reported earlier, Paris counted most meetings. No3 in participants is Vienna, then Munich, Berlin. This highlights the problem with single-year counts; on a 5-year count, Munich would not only be below Berlin, but about No8 - see WYSK. Munich is No35 in meeting numbers. Two big medical conferences - 32,858 and 27,700 participants - made 2018 an exceptional year.
-The US remains in the top country, Spain overtakes Germany to become No2, then France, Canada.
-Main topics are Medical Science (share 16.9%), Technology (14.2%), Science (13.5%).
-Spend on international meetings was US$12.4bn (we calculate +3.8% from ICCA-rounded €11bn and +4%).
*Notes:
-ICCA’s counts are meetings of associations (and follow precise definitions), and thus are just one segment of the big MICE business. We have not seen estimates, but we would be surprised if ICCA’s segment was more than 20% of the total. Why do these counts attract so much interest? (Possibly, we answer ourselves, because no other worldwide trade body tracks the whole MICE business.)
-Until 2009, ICCA gave us additional information for our analysis, but has refused this since. Full data is reserved for ICCA members; a policy with which we agree, even if it causes us some difficulty. As a result, however, our coverage is now limited to meetings numbers, rather than adding commentary on attendance numbers as well.
-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.

ITB Berlin falling
13 March 2019
Key measures for last week’s ITB Berlin (ITBB) travel trade exhibition appear to show static or falling results.
  However, organisers Messe Berlin (MB) do not always report the same category of data every year, and some are rounded over a few years - 60,000 public visitors every year 2015 to 2018, and in some years before that.
  And the number of measures is falling. MB has published as many as 17 separate measures on ITBB; for 2019 it published five.
  But potentially of more concern for MB is an apparent denial that not all is going well. The following are some of MB’s public statements on ITBB 2019:
-‘Robust and resilient.
-‘International demand remains stable.
-‘Increase in trade visitors.
-‘Uninterrupted growth at a high level’.
  Apart from the trade-visitor count, we cannot see how MB can create such positive comment. The following are our calculations on MB data for this year, compared with our database for 2018 results:
-Zero growth in exhibitors - 10,000.
-Fall, -2.7%, in countries represented - 181.
-Fall, -5.9%, in total visitors - 160k.
-Growth, +3.2%, in trade visitors - 114k.
-Great fall, -22.5%, in public visitors - 45k.
  Note, however, that MB has not published this 45k (we calculated it), and it may be related to MB’s reporting of imprecise data in earlier years.
  In addition, this year there was a separate public travel show in Berlin at the same time - Berlin Travel Festival, March 8-10, Fri-Sun - although obviously BTF did not have the same volume of ITBB.
  Surprisingly, BTF was partly funded (‘supported’, which has no clear definition) by MB, although it certainly competes with the two public days of ITBB, Saturday and Sunday. We presume there will eventually be an adjustment - will ITBB be just three trade days, and the new show will take over from the last two days of ITBB, on the weekend?

Asean travel study
7 February 2019
Key findings from our calculation of visitor forecast to arrive in the 10 Asean destinations* this year. Although these are based on forecasts by the DMOs, the figures are substantially different from official Asean figures.
  We are unable to determine the reasons for this; Asean does not generally reply to queries and/or provide details of its broad positive presentations. Worse, if falls are forecast, the relevant figures are simply omitted.
  In travel, Asean is a ‘good news’ operation, and professional reporting takes second position. We are unqualified to comment on Asean’s main activities, built around politics and economics.
  We find it impossible to reconcile Asean reported data with our compilation of data from DMOs, partly because Asean issues no qualifications. We thus report both data, for better reader interpretation.
-Asean reports Asean+India 2018 visitor arrivals at 139.5mn +7.4%. Based on our estimates for 2018 (full figures are not yet available), we count 143.3mn +6.8% (Asean 132.7mn +6.9%, India 10.6mn +5.0%).
-Asean reports Asean+China+Japan+Korea 2018 visitor arrivals at 191.5mn - growth not reported. Our estimates show a giant difference - 330.1mn +6.2%. The problem is almost-certainly data on China visitors, and whether arrivals from Hong Kong and Macau are included. They are included in China’s official figures, and we have included them. Asean appears to exclude them because that would take about 100mn off our total - putting ours closer to Asean’s count. Asean provides no qualifications.
  The following is our calculation of the principal figures. We believe these are a better report on market realities than Asean’s data:
-Based on official statements by the 10 Asean DMOs forecast, there will be 150.1mn +13.1% visitors this year in their 10 destinations. However, this is unlikely to be achieved; 2018 growth was only an estimated +6.9% to 132.7mn, and 2017 +8.3% to 124.1mn.
-Growing Singapore’s total (by 40%) to better match over-counting by Malaysia and Thailand to balance their over-counting (by including land arrivals; see next) would result in an Asean total of 139.9mn +6.7% in 2018, with their forecast to grow to 157.5mn +12.6% this year.
-Reducing the totals for Malaysia (by 50%) and Thailand (by 10%), Asean’s total would be 116.1mn +7.9% in 2018, with their forecast to grow to 132.8mn +14.3% this year.
  We believe these figures are closest to reality. These also result in faster average annual growth - +8.0% over 2015, +9.0% over 2010. But that cumulative forecast for 2019 still looks too high, based on past performance - +14.3%.
*A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Trump Slump Bumped
17 September 2018
-there have been extraordinary changes in US visitor counts that turn a fall into growth.
The US has produced a new set of figures on visitor arrivals in the US. It reverses the Trump Slump into a Bump. But the new counts do not correct what may have been a fault; they deliberately miscategorise figures, which produces a Trump Bump.
  We are shocked, but we have seen no other reports that have analysed the changes.
  Here is the story:
  Earlier this year, many reports on visitor arrivals in the US were reporting a ‘Trump Slump’ - a fall in visitors prompted by the negative actions and words of the newish US president, Donald Trump. When he was not banning or trying to ban certain types or citizens from visiting the US, his words were unfriendly.
  Not only did his words ascertain that the US was on its way to becoming great again, but, almost concomitantly, non-Americans (=foreigners) were not so good, at best.
  In those circumstances, there should have been little surprise that the number of visitors would fall. Even if the banned nationals were tiny suppliers of visitors to the US (we guess some country-markets in the hundreds, and maybe 10,000 over a year), many others would, sensibly, have reconsidered a visit to the US.
  Would a France national, moslem, born in France of parents from Morocco, continue to assume a visit to the US would be trouble free?
  But a fall in visitors, of course, even if a likely outcome of specific actions, was not welcomed by the US administration. Its discourse was, and is, that everything is better for everyone in the US, and possibly better than since the beginning of time.
  This is not to say that we accuse the US government of helping the US administration to falsify facts. But its actions nevertheless raise suspicions.
  Last April, the US government said it was checking visitor-arrival counts because some visitors may have been miscategorised.
  The country’s DMO (NTTO, National Travel and Tourism Office) says some arrivals were incorrectly reported as showing US as the country of residence. The passport country for many (NTTO says ‘a large number’, but provides no further definition to enable others to define it thus) of the affected records was Brazil, China, India.
  This month, NTTO announced that the problem has now been fixed.
  But, we declare, it has not been corrected.
  The NTTO says any visitor-arrival that listed the US as the country of residence has now been changed to show the passport country as the country of residence. This is actually changing what may have been a mistake (obviously most arrivals with India passports were/are not residents of the US, even if some were recorded as US residents) to a clear mistake (assuming all those non-US-citizen visitor-arrivals were/are not resident in the US).
  This exercise has reversed the Trump Slump into a Trump Bump.
  In general terms, based on our notes above about the unwelcome sentiment in Trump’s US for ‘foreigners’, the visitor-arrival count now seems wrong. That said, we accept that few figures ‘seem’ right all the time; there are always surprises.
  The NTTO says the change (it says ‘corrective’ but as we have noted, these are not corrections, this is just re-categorisation) means the mistake (if that is what it was) in 2017 affected 3.7mn visitors in 2017 - almost a full Trump Year - yet only 540,000 visitors in non-Trump 2016.
  The other broad figures (more, with an accompanying table, in a WYSK report, what-you-should-know, from Travel Business Analyst):
-The new figures show there were 38.9mn +2.0% overseas visitors in 2017. The old figures were 35.2mn -6.2%.
-For total visitors (ie including Canada, Mexico), new 76.9mn +0.7%, old 73.3mn -3.1%.
-There were no changes for visitors from Canada, Mexico in 2017, but changes in 2016 and 2015. Although the changes in those earlier years were small, why were those 2017 figures ‘corrected’ before the ‘mistake’ in the categorisation was discovered? Even though the Canada and Mexico visitor-arrival counts are so big (almost 40mn in 2017), no visitor was mis-categorised?
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

We Were Right; Singapore Airlines Group
18 May 2018
With the news that Silk Air is being merged into Singapore Airlines, the businessplan we outlined for SAG (Singapore Airlines Group) is almost complete.
  We synopsised our points in a November 2013 report following a meeting with a senior SAG executive. Some of these points we had noted before, and of course later. The three elements were:
1. Scoot should not have been established. SAG’s first NFA* Tiger should have been expanded instead. SAG did not own a majority in Tiger at that time, and so we suggested SAG should simply buy a bigger share.
  Three years later this all started to happen. SAG increased its shareholding in Tiger. Then the two airlines Scoot and Tiger were put under a single management control, then Tiger was merged into Scoot.
  Essentially then, this is what we suggested – just one (NFA) airline.
2. Similarly there has been no need (for the past 15 years at least) to have two FSAs*. The inanity of this was illustrated in that there were some routes on which both SIA and Silk were flying. Duh!
  There are nuances to our argument, of course, which make this not quite so blatantly stupid, but it was still was poor business management.
  Now, following this announcement, what we proposed is happening – just one (FSA) airline.
3. However, there was an element in our proposed businessplan for SAG that has not been implemented, and which in some ways makes the SIA/Silk merger the wrong move.
  We proposed that Silk become SAG’s LCA*. As an LCA, Silk’s routes could be new ones for SAG – where it is usually better to start with a lower-cost operation until the financial viability for SIA to operate such a route is clearer. Or a Silk LCA could operate additional frequencies on routes operated by SIA – again, which might not be profitable for SIA to expand.
  Perhaps SAG management believes Scoot will fill that market need – develop new routes. But as management knows, and says, Scoot serves a different market segment.
  Under this new arrangement for SIA/Silk, the full-service market segment is not properly served (because any extra demand from the FSA market will be fulfilled by non-SAG FSAs). That, or higher-costs SIA will add flights to fulfil this extra demand, and lose money, at least initially.
  Also, that would mean SAG’s market share would steadily fall – or at least not grow at the rate it could.
  Will SAG management understand this?
  The chances do not look good – back in 2013 they laughed (literally, but at the proposal, not the deliverer) at our three proposals – two of which they have now carried out.
*Notes: Our airline-type definitions:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs - cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for example), fewer fare types, may have first and business cabins as well as economy, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. If relevant, usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: shorthaul point-to-point routes; market freedom in terms of fares, routes; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; extremely-low fares when bought at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no (free) service frills; single economy-class cabin; no (free) seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

Misleading WTTC reports
23 March 2018
WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has published a series of comprehensive reports* for selected markets – some measures comparable, some not.
  Unfortunately, the group is so careless in its presentations that the professional observer is sometimes left to guess what WTTC’s research shows. We believe its presentations are in contrast with the professionalism of its research.
  As a result, the following is our (abridged) list of WTTC’s findings, with comments where necessary.
  (Note: WTTC mainly uses the awkward term ‘travel and tourism’*, which we change to the more-practical ‘travel business’*, abbreviated here to TB. Data for 2017, unless noted otherwise.)
[] World.
-TB turnover +4.6%. Visitor spend +4.3%. GDP growth a WTTC-rounded +3%.
[] North Africa.
-TB turnover (overall GDP, TB’s share of GDP): +22.6%; Egypt US$21.1bn +72.9% (+4.1%, 11.0%); Tunisia US$5.7bn +7.6% (WTTC-rounded +2%, 14.2%); Turkey US$98.4bn WTTC-rounded +17% (+7.0%, 11.6%). Note Turkey is part in Europe, part in Asia (Minor), which is sometimes a reason for including it in the Middle East. Including it in North Africa is incorrect.
-‘...well on track to return to pre-crisis levels’. Without a date, this is meaningless commentary; it was on that track the moment the TB stopped falling.
[] Australia.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$156bn/A$197.5bn +2.3% (+2.2%).
[] Canada.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$108bn/C$138.8bn +4.5% (a WTTC-rounded +3%). In a separate report, WTTC puts growth as +5.5%.
[] China.
-TB turnover +9.8%.
[] France.
-TB 50% faster than world average. Wrong? The same report showed that this was a comparison with the visitor business, not the overall TB.
-Visitors to France spent US$54.7bn (at US$1 to €0.81) +6.4%.
-TB turnover US$252.2bn, an 8.9% share.
[] Germany.
-TB turnover US$429.8bn +1.7%.
[] India.
-Forecast to overtake Germany as #3 by 2028.
[] Indonesia.
-TB turnover US$57bn/Rph787.1tn +6.4%; overall GDP +5.1%.
-Forecast +6.4% annual average growth rate 2018-27.
[] Italy.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$275.6bn +2.7%, a WTTC-rounded 13% share (+1.6%).
-Visitor spend US$48.9bn +6.5%.
[] Japan.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$350bn/¥37.1tn +3.4% (+1.6%).
-Forecasts 40mn visitors in 2020. Not clear if this is a WTTC forecast or a restatement of Japan’s government’s target.
[] Saudi Arabia.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$64bn/R240.9bn +4.6% (a WTTC-rounded +1%), a 9.4% share of GDP.
[] Spain.
-TB turnover a WTTC-rounded +7%.
[] UK.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$297bn/a-WTTC-rounded-£214bn +6.2% (+1.5%).
-Visitors +6.7%, outbound travellers +2.5% (+7.8% 2016, +9.9% 2015), domestic travellers +5.8%, spend by visitors to UK +7.9%, spend by domestic travellers +5.8%.
[] US.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$1.5tn +2.3% world’s largest (same, +2.3%).
*Notes:
-WTTC has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure will be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business.
  Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
  WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers - just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-Most US$ figures are our conversions from WTTC figures.
-A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTTC Research Director Rochelle Turner responds:
The methodology that WTTC uses aligns to the UN a statistical Methodology for accounting for Travel & Tourism (TSA RMF: 2008).  
The definition of the sector from the TSA RMF:2008 is as follows: ‘the activity of persons travelling to and staying in places outside of their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not remunerated from within the place visited’. 
Our approach has been independently audited and is fully available for view on our website, www.wttc.org. All country regions are fully explained on the final pages within each country report. 

Easy v Ryan v Southwest v Norwegian v Air Asia
22 December 2017
On the occasion of the departure of Easyjet CEO, Carolyn McCall, and prompted by some comments by the airline on her performance over her seven years at the airline, we check the results at Easy and some other competing airlines. These indicate that Easy’s claims for McCall are not justified*.
  According to our database, Easy’s seat sales have shown a +7.0% average annual growth rate since she joined. That looks weak alongside some key competitors – +8.2% AAGR at arch-rival Ryanair, the world’s biggest NFA (no-frills-airline), +14.5% at (relative) newcomer Norwegian, although only +5.9% at US-based Southwest, overtaken two months ago as the world’s biggest NFA, and +15.9% at Air Asia, that region’s biggest NFA. Air Berlin, which has now shut down, was negative, -1.6%.
  The same pattern for Easy’s share price. At current prices, Easy’s share AAGR over end-2010 was +18.3%, Ryan +24.6%, Southwest +24.4%. Only two years for Norwegian, but -25.2%. Also negative for Air Asia, -2.0% over the seven years. Air Berlin was not a quoted airline.
  We calculate Easy’s seat sales have grown +49.7% since 2010, although Ryan has grown +60.6%, Norwegian +124.9%, Air Asia +109.3%, but Southwest +40.9%.
*A report on this topic in our People-in-Travel (PinT) monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Ryanair tops
8 December 2017
It happened in September and was confirmed in October. According to our counts, Ryanair has overtaken Southwest to become the world's biggest no-frills-airline.
  Seat sales Jan-Oct were 11.0mn on Ryan compared with 10.8mn on Southwest.

Asean@50; unhappy birthday?
23 January 2017
The reclusive Asean travel secretariat (ATS) has reiterated its 2017 visitor target for the 10 Asean destinations at 121mn. Yet the figures it has published indicate that it expects slower growth in this celebratory year than in the ‘normal’ year 2016.
  We’ll explain:
  The forecast is related to what is named ‘Asean@50’ (A50). This is a so-called (non-funded) promotional campaign this year to encourage greater visitation into the 10 Asean destinations – to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the formation of the Asean political association.
  We believe few travellers are motivated by political birthdays. In 2015, the visitor element of Singapore’s 50th-year independence/foundation celebrations was a flop. Arrivals growth that year was just 1%; something which no-one now mentions. Ironically, A50 was officially launched in Singapore, indicating that nothing has been learned from Singapore’s birthday failure.
  One year ago, ATS released data that would mean visitor totals for the 10 destinations in 2015 totalled 92.3mn. Since then, ATS has changed that total to 109mn and now to 108mn.
  We estimate that there was strong growth in visitors in 2016 – probably 8.5%, even though that was below the 12.8% forecast that we calculated after adding up DMO forecasts at the start of 2016.
  That +8.5% would put the 2016 Asean visitor total at 117mn – based on ATS’s restated 2015 total of 108mn. From there to the targetted 121mn this year would mean 3.2% growth this year. We have seen no commentary that this means, in effect, that ATS forecasts slower growth this A50 year than in 2016, a ‘normal’ year.
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis.

We Were Right!
11 November 2016
We have had a good couple-of-months - in vindication.
1. Frequently, since 2007, we have been saying that the Air Berlin businessmodel was wrong, suggesting simplification. In September 2016, the airline announced it was downsizing (about 40%), moving some of its leisure operations into a new company, and more, to change what it called its “complicated business model”. (There is still more to do, however.)
2. In 2015 we formalised our 7-year-old strategy for bigger airline groups. One section proposed expanding Hop, an Air France subsidiary, into a low-cost subsidiary to operate certain flights (short medium long) instead of AF and its associate KLM. In November 2016, the AF-KLM group said it planned to establish a low-cost subsidiary in 2017 to operate certain Asia and Atlantic flights instead of the two.
3. In April 2016 we said the reported plan by Alitalia to buy 49% of Air Malta would not happen. In October 2016, it was announced that the sale would not take place.
4. When Scoot was established in 2011 we said it should not have been, and Tiger expanded instead. This plan was dismissed by the owner of both, the Singapore Airlines group (SAG), end-2013. In November 2016, SAG said Tiger would operate under Scoot’s name starting 2017.
  For those interested in more:
-What full-service-airlines need to do to survive. See 
https://medium.com/@tbaoffice/airline-strategy-185fa3ef7d0c#.octgrysmf
-We’ve been reporting Air Berlin’s problems since 2006. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jJ
-AirFrance-KLM new subsidiary; we thought of it first. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jW
-Scoot = Tiger. We thought of it first. See http://wp.me/pTv9-k0
-How to save Air Malta and others. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jB 
-Alitalia to buy into Air Malta? See http://wp.me/pTv9-it
-Analysing Alitalia’s 2015 results. See http://wp.me/pTv9-in

Air Berlin surprise
5 October 2016
Why did it take so long to see the problems? We’ve been reporting them since 2006. PAGPFT. On http://wp.me/pTv9-jJ

Asean’s Faultlines.
13 June 2016
Asean’s Faultlines, by Murray Bailey
3500-word critique entitled Asean’s Faultlines – includes a section What To Do. On https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/aseans-faultlines-by-murray-bailey/

Shouting some shocks: Virgin, Fly Be, Wizz, Air Berlin.
20 May 2016
Virgin on trouble
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
  Figures we have seen on Virgin Atlantic (the airline does not publish them) indicate all is not going well. OK, they are bad.
  For all-year 2015 we have a 3% fall in seat sales to 5.8mn following a particularly-bad December - -14%.
  But this year has started worse. We have Q1 seat sales at -7%. The 1.1mn total that represents compares with 1.2mn sold in 2015, and the peak of 1.3mn in 2014 - which was a 4% growth on 2013.
  We are not saying VA is not long for this world. (That’s an improvement as we said they would collapse within two years after they were established - 30 years ago.)
  But will owners Branson and Delta clash? Branson was able to deal easily with his previous supporter, Singapore Airlines, but Delta may be harder to fool.
Fly Be, or not-to-be?
But if you are looking for doom in the UK, then look at Fly Be. True, its seat sales were +1% in Q1 (ie better than VA’s -7%), but its seat factor was a disastrous 66%. We reckon the airline needs at least 14pts more than that.
  We propose that FB management (that’s Fly Be, not Mr Zuckerberg) campaign strongly for Brexit. If the UK makes the wrong decision and quits the EU, FB can take over some of the many UK-EU routes that Ryanair will likely be forced to abandon.
Wizzing ahead
Ready for another? Wizz - Hungary-based but think East Europe - is on track to overtake (sorry, wiz past) Air Berlin in 2017.
  Poor Air Berlin. It is tumbling faster - -7% YTD, -8% latest month. And that change would follow on from the ignominy of being overtaken this Q1 by Nano-Norway’s Norwegian.

Analysing Alitalia’s 2015 results
6 May 2016
Alitalia’s heading: ‘On track for profitability by 2017; reports strong 2015 performance.’
Ours: ‘Alitalia revenue and traffic fall again; will it achieve its target for profits in 2017?’
2015 seemed to be another year of operational weakening at Alitalia. ‘Seemed’ because the company does not publish all the data every year.
  We normally look at seat sales, and when we look at finance, at revenue and operating profit (not net, which can be more easily manipulated). So:
-Alitalia’s peak year for seat sales (including Air One) seems to have been 2007, with 31.5mn.
-The company does not reveal growth in 2015 (and did not report 2014 data) – just the figure. That was 22.1mn, thus a shocking 29.9% fall against 2007 – an average annual 4.3% fall.
-Revenue. We have US$3.99bn (at US$1 to €0.90) for 2012 – no full-year since then. In 2015 US$3.68bn -7.8%, an average annual 2.7% fall.
-Operating profit. No data.
-From our file data, Alitalia’s revenue in 2012 calculates to US$165 per seat sold. In 2015 it was better, US$167, a 1.2% growth, so 0.4% average annual growth.
-Other. It provides other data, but without comparative information, most are essentially worthless. Such as US$262mn from ‘codeshare revenue’. Of course Alitalia indicates that this is good, but with no comparative or other data, how can we know? Its load factor (not further defined, but we have assumed RTK over ATK, not RPK over ASK) looks worryingly low, at 76.2%. We would have thought it needs at least 10-points higher. That said, it is actually an improvement on the latest data we have, for 2006, of 65.7%!

wow – ow – ouch – oh
9 March 2016
China’s airlines – wow
Although it was a Lunar New Year month (compared with non-LNY in 2015), growth in seat sales for China’s big-3 is impressive nevertheless.
  In January on international routes (by size), China Southern was +29%, Air China +43% (!), China Eastern +30%.
  (Numbers: 1.14mn 1.10mn 0.88mn.)
Macau - ow
We follow Macau’s RCT (Rolling Chip Turnover; can be considered as money spent on gambling).
  We have just seen the 2015 results for IKGH, a company operating certain high-rollers rooms in four casinos in Macau.
  Its RCT in 2015 fell an enormous 61%, and it is not getting much better – Q4 RCT was down 57% and Jan-Feb this year -44%. (Dollar amounts are not relevant in this report – but for those interested, the figures were US$6.4bn in 2015, and US$1.2bn in Q4.)
  If those results are an indicator for all-Macau, will Las Vegas take back its title as the world’s biggest gambling centre?
Malaysia Airlines – ouch
I estimate that Malaysia Airlines’ international seat sales fell even further in 2015, possibly to under 10mn. Was it only two years earlier in 2013 that its count soared passed that 10mn with 30% growth?
  Unsurprisingly, traffic fell in 2014 after it lost two aircraft, but it is surprising that monthly traffic is still falling.
  We thought there would be a Dead Cat Bounce for the last three months of 2015. Not only did that not happen, by a long way, but also the fall seems to have been greater – down around 25% in Q4.
  Of course, these falls are not entirely the result of those two 2014 tragedies. There is still hard competition from the Air Asia group (although AA is not doing as well as it was). And Malaysia’s current governmental turmoil and currency fall may be slowing traffic in and out of the country – possibly more business- than leisure-travel.
  Also, we think MA should have changed its name last year (it did, but from its formal abbreviation MAS to MAB; most did not notice). At least to Air Malaysia.
  Those aforementioned political spats may be reducing the pressure on MA to explain and reverse its continued fall. But expect political demands for a return to better times to happen soon – however unrealistic. In the next 4-6 months?
Virgin Australia – oh
It was not supposed to be like this.
  When Virgin Australia launched, it started fortuitously - its big would-be rival, Ansett, shut down the following year, in 2001. It continued to go well until, encouraged by an adoring crowd, it started international flights. Some are still there, but international expansion was not as easy as it seemed to think.
  Then Qantas launched Jetstar in Australia, and VA felt the competition heat more warmly. Worse, Singapore Airlines (which actually got burned badly in the Ansett collapse – but let’s not bring that up again) cheekily started a Tiger Air division in Australia.
  That went sort-of reasonably, until the authorities shut it down temporarily in 2011 for safety reasons. 18 months later Singapore Airlines – which left the impression it did not know what it was doing with Tiger, in Australia and Asia – sold the Australia company to VA.
  VA smugly said it was pleased to get back into the no-frills-airline business. Smug because its original businessplan was for a no-frills-airline (even though that did not fit the overall Virgin strategy). When Ansett collapsed, Virgin steadily ditched the NFA model.
  So here we are with 2015 results – our counts from Virgin data, because it has a different financial year.
  Seat sales down for Virgin international and down for Virgin domestic Australia. Ironically, only Tiger grew, and that because it can be considered a newish airline that had lost its direction, and is now under more-determined direction.
  VA’s total count is down. If this continues, watch for another change in direction soon – from CEO change to change in strategy on domestic, international and Tiger. Will Tiger’s name go?
  (Numbers: domestic -3%, international -2%, Tiger +9%; overall -1%.)

Euromonitor Puerilities
7 December 2015
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.
Research company Euromonitor (EM) has listed what it calls “top emerging travel trends” (a misnomer) in the WTM Global Trends Report. We have criticised some EM reports and statements before, including its now-14-years of work for the GTR. But this latest list of blathers we find an insult to travel industry professionals in that most have little or no meaning:
  EM’s TETTs are:
The new American dream: work less, play hard.
“A growing number of American companies offer unlimited vacation time to create a happier, loyal and motivated staff, which will have an effect on travel bookings.”
We know of no company (in the US or anywhere) that pays staff and allows them not to do any work. But we do accept that such employees would likely spend some of their money and great amount of free time on travel.
Smart technology drives travel to UK’s secondary cities.
“Digitalisation and hi-tech solutions are redefining the tourist offerings of UK urban centres to boost travel outside of London, currently the jewel in the crown of UK tourism.”
Smart technology is also driving travel to London, and everywhere. But what, we wonder, does ‘digitalisation and hi-tech’ do, in this case, for such travel that it does not do for others?
‘Hipster Holidays’ revolutionise European city break.
“Young and hip travellers’ interest in alternative city areas opens new business opportunities and helps diversifying urban attractions in European cities struggling with excessive tourism.”
We tried to understand this, but failed. And we wonder which cities are struggling, and what, indeed, is ‘excessive tourism’.
Travel 3.0: the advent of smart travel.
“Smart technology is transforming the tourism industry with personalised services to create enjoyable experiences suited to a traveller’s individual preferences.”
Well, yes, but is this an ‘emerging trend’? We would think personalisation has been around for at least five if not 10 years. And in some cases, much longer; such as Thomas Cooks’ trips from the UK to the French Riviera in the 1850s.
Iran: the next travel hotspot.
“The recent sanction lift sparked a scramble to open Iran to international visitors, attracted by its ancient Persian history, 17 World Heritage Sites, as well as natural attractions.”
Well, visitor growth was 4% in 2014, but that was before an agreement on sanctions (and, EM, should know, they have not been lifted, but some may be lifted.) On a 5mn total, small numerical increases could produce big percentage growth – but all this hardly deserves such puerile descriptions as ‘hotspot’ and ‘scramble’. We would be surprised if the 2015 total reaches as much as 6mn.
We also wonder if EM wants us to note that there is a difference for potential travellers between Iran’s ‘ancient Persian history’ and its ‘Persian history’. We are not qualified to make any comment on any difference.
Technology start-ups changing the face of Africa.
“With technology start-ups flourishing across the continent, Africa is entering a new era of innovation, which will help change the perception to international tourists.”
Although this ‘changing the face’ is a super-exaggeration, does the creation of start-ups – anywhere - motivate travellers?
Luxury hotels keeping in with the crowd.
“Luxury hotels are turning to crowdsourcing and crowdfunding to get their properties financed, rather than relying on traditional sources of investment.”
Please EM, put this into perspective. Under-1% of funding of the under-5% of hotels in the luxury category?
The sharing economy heads to China.
“After a shaky start, the sharing economy is taking off in China, with the rise of new local players in 2014, a trend boosted by the number of Chinese millennials.”
Finally, something we can agree with! But hardly news. And, of course, the sharing economy is taking off in most places, with or without the help from millennials.
Travel for the Indian unbanked.
“Travel firms are adopting ‘cash-on-delivery’ payments to cater to the half a billion Indians without a bank account.”
Yes again, but this is not a new phenomenon.

end

 

 


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Main contents in current issues of our newsletters, reports, and other outlets:

What-You-Should-Know, Asia Pacific: Asia Pacific visitor forecasts. Airline financial results compared, Travel Stocks Indices, March travel stocks, Airlines in Asia Pacific. Plus: Market Monitor; ZERO; Market Headlines; People-in-Travel; Net Value; and 10 regular tables of market data.

What-You-Should-Know, Europe: WTTC wrong counts. IATA outlooks. Plus: Market Monitor; ZERO; People-in-Travel; Net Value; Market Headlines; and 10 regular tables of market data.

Net Value: Travel-tech stocks; ‘Things’; others.

People-in-Travel: Expedia gets new leader; others.

ZERO: IATA misses EV test; others.

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