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US travel business updates
16 October 2020
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for September: air tickets sold US$1.2bn -85%; average US roundtrip ticket US$343 -$153; passenger trips 7.61mn -69% (domestic 5.6mn -65%, international 2mn -78%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$2.30mn -66%; EMD transactions 55.0k -50%.
-Online travel agency ticket sales -51%, corporate bookings -86%, leisure bookings -71%. 
-For September (compared with August 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold US +56%; passenger trips +25% (domestic +24%, international +29%); EMD sales +26%; EMD transactions +55%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-Any rounding by ARC.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-4-10 October occupancy 50.0% (-29.2%), average room rate US$97.67 (-25.9%)
-27 September-3 October 47.9% (-29.6%) US$95.63 (-26.3%)
-20-26 September 48.7% (-31.5%) US$96.38 (-29.6%).
-13-19 September 48.6% (-31.9%) US$95.84 (-28.9%).
-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)
-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).
-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)
-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).
-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
15 October 2020
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in September at 1.14mn -84.1%, YTD 20.1mn -68.2%.
[] Travel deals done*. Global Data* reports on corporate deals (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the world’s travel business in September. Findings include:
-Deals done 102 -11.3%, over August. (GD sometimes compares with average of previous 12 months, which is a better comparison.)
-M&A (mergers and acquisitions) deals were -3.2%, venture-financing -15.8%, private-equity -41.7%, partnership -33.3%, debt offerings -10.5%, equity offerings +4% (GD rounded). No data on another category that GD has - asset transactions.
-Deals fell in (GD-selected) key markets China, Japan, US, grew in UK (which GD reports as same level as Korea). No numbers given.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ - which may be only part travel-business.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Canada/US travel survey
14 October 2020
WTTC* and Travel Leaders Group* (together, WT), following a survey*, report:
-99% of respondents (WL define them as travellers, but they are not yet that) in Canada and the US are ‘eager’ to travel again.
-54% say they are ‘dreaming’ of when they can travel again.
-45% have made or started to make travel plans.
-23% plan to travel by end-2020, 70% in 2021, 18% in 2022. As reported; total above 100%.
-Above 50% (figure not given) are concerned about: the risk of being infected when travelling; being stuck while away from home; being quarantined.
-Less than 50% (figure not given) are concerned about: them or family member contracting covid while travelling; getting a refund if trip is cancelled; family members with higher-risk health conditions.
-60% said a requirement for a negative covid test (ie, the patient does not have covid) on arrival would make no difference, or would be regarded as a ‘positive’ (positive requirement; not a positive test). 40% said a negative covid test on arrival would be a deterrent to travelling.
-Of those who plan a holiday, 47% would fly, 21% drive, 22% cruise. Details of remaining 10% not given.
-International ‘destinations of interest’ are 38% Europe, 34% Caribbean, 15% Mexico. The balance is for nearly everywhere else, but not enumerated, although WL add Canada for those surveyed in the US, but do not include the US for travellers from Canada.
-‘Anywhere uncrowded’ is ‘high on the list’ as a desirable destination. That reminds us of a Yogi Berra quote: ‘No one goes there anymore; it’s too crowded’. And our rejoinder: ‘Everyone goes there now; it’s so quiet’.
*Notes:
-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
-Travel Leaders Group is a US-based company that has 7000 owned, franchised, affiliate travel agencies mainly in Canada, US; other countries noted are Mexico, UK. Main Source: Wikipedia.
-Survey in September. Not clear if by the Travel Leaders Group for WTTC, or something else.
-At press time, WL had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Hotel business updates
14 October 2020
STR* reports:
[] On Australia:
-September occupancy 43.1% -42.3%, average room rate US$102 (A$147.50) -17.9%.
-In capital cities November and December booked occupancy 8-17%, in other locations 14-32%.
-For October in Sydney 16%, surrounding Sydney 46%. For December, 10% 20%. 
[] For September:
-Dubai hoteloccupancy -37.6% to 45.4%, average room rate -20.8% to US$77 (Dh284.15).
-London -65.8% 29.7%, -45.3% US$116 (£93.15).
[] On hotel openings March through September: US 55,395, China 23,470, Japan 16,304, Germany 9027, Canada 2748, UK 2481.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-Data selections by STR.

Travel business updates
12 October 2020
ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -60.12%. 2. -67.33%. 3. -68.30%. 4. -53.76%. 5. -61.05%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-October 11. 1. -67.0%. 2. -79.9%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -49.8%. 5. -69.7%.
-October 4. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.0%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -71.5%.
-September 27. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -86.3%. 4. -51.2%. 5. -71.3%.
-September 20. 1. -69.0%. 2. -82.0%. 3. -86.8%. 4. -52.0%. 5. -72.3%.
-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.
-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.
-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.
-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
9 October 2020
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in September for US hotel companies was 3,329 -7.1% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -36.8%. Our database shows end-2019 was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 147. Previous month 155; end-2019 195.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 122. Previous month: 142; end-2019 211.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 142, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 122, US 261. Previous month: World 155, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 99. Previous month 103; end-2019 160.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 89. Previous month 90; end-2019 109.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Hotel business updates
8 October 2020
STR* reports on US hotels:
-27 September-3 October occupancy 47.9% (-29.6%), average room rate US$95.63 (-26.3%)
-20-26 September 48.7% (-31.5%) US$96.38 (-29.6%).
-13-19 September 48.6% (-31.9%) US$95.84 (-28.9%).
-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)
-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).
-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)
-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).
-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel plans
7 October 2020
A survey (in July and August) by OAG* and JD Power* (together OJ):
-79% of those surveyed*, and 81% of those in North America*, plan to fly on domestic routes in the next six months.
-69% 73% plan to fly on international routes in the next six months.
-33% have not (and do not plan to) changed their travel plans because of covid. No separate data for North America. Not reported, but this might properly be termed as 66% have changed their plans because of covid. OJ thus provide no information on what, and in what way, those potential travellers changed/might change their plans.
-Millennials* and Generation-Z* are more likely to fly domestically (84% v 79%), and less likely to change their travel plans (66% v 70%). Region (world or North America) not noted.
-Travel agents (OJ noted only OTAs, although we presume people would want the same from offline travel agents) to provide health notifications on flights and hotels (61%) and covid transmission rates at destinations (53%). Region (world or North America) not noted.
-Safety measures those flying in North America want are: passengers and staff to wear masks; middle-seat empty; distribution of individual disinfectant wipes for personal areas. No separate comment for all-world.
*Notes:
-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Our outlook
6 October 2020
The following extracted from our input for an external report.
1 What is your assessment of performance in your business May-August 2020 compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Much worse.
2 What have been the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] May-August?
There are only negatives. Worst is covid of course. But not just that there has been resurgence of cases in many parts of the world (although some are still on their ‘first wave’), but that it comes with the realisation that so much is still unknown. How long will the pandemic last, when will a vaccine be approved, what changes will this mean to the ‘sentiment’ of travel - business, leisure, MICE, VFR, etc? What will people want? For the moment, the answer is ‘I have no idea’, even if we can all express what we think.
3 What are prospects for performance in your business September-December compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Much worse.
4 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] September-December?
There is only one concern - what happens about covid. Vaccine, 2nd-wave, continued 1st-wave. Hygiene protocols are not so important (although they must continue, and be seen to continue) when infections keep rising. The one hope, again, are proposed ‘travel bubbles’. If these work (but how to measure that?), that could help travel to restart. But, and another negative, so many actions have become political; a government proposes, the opposition opposes. Result: low confidence in the public concerning travel.
5 When do you expect a rebound in the international [travel business] in your market?
By Q2 2021. (The question/answer is misleading because there is likely to be a Dead Cat Bounce in Q2 2021, and perhaps even in Q1. What we need to know is Question 4.)
6 When do you expect the international [travel business] to return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels in your market?
2021. But that’s on the assumption a vaccine is approved in Q1 2021. If not, 6 months after a vaccine is approved.
7 What are the three main factors weighing on the recovery of the international [travel business]? Select three answers
Travel restrictions
Lack of coordinated response among countries
Low consumer confidence
Slow virus containment
Slow flight resumption
Economic environment
Other (please describe)
All of the above. Top-3 in order: Other (Vaccine approval), Travel restrictions, Low consumer confidence (which would start to improve once a vaccine is approved).
8 Is the domestic [travel business] driving the recovery in your market?
Yes, but ‘helping’ rather than ‘driving’; because ‘driving’ implies that it is driving international travel. But there are too many factors involved in ‘recovery’ of international travel.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
5 October 2020
ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -59.96%. 2. -67.03%. 3. -67.85%. 4. -53.85%. 5. -60.85%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-October 4. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.0%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -71.5%.
-September 27. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -86.3%. 4. -51.2%. 5. -71.3%.
-September 20. 1. -69.0%. 2. -82.0%. 3. -86.8%. 4. -52.0%. 5. -72.3%.
-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.
-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.
-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.
-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: September travel stocks’ ups and downs; it’s not getting better
2 October 2020
Commentary (category numbers below):
-In fact, some numbers are getting worryingly-worse.
-Big drop at some big airlines, notably in Europe. For ICAG in Madrid -54%! Have investors lost their confidence in the travel business?
-But it may not be just travel because most stockmarkets fell also, albeit not as much as travel company falls.
-Getting back to end-2019 prices once again looks a distant dream. Note, however, that China’s travel stocks are already +6%.
-That said, even China fell in the month, see below.
-Some surprises (although there are nearly always surprises): Why did media-darling Wizz fall -20%? Why is China’s CITS now 150% above its end-2019 price? Why are US hotels down more than US airlines?
Selected category-specifics:
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern -1%, Delta +0.5%, ICAG -36/54% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -16%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +2%, Easyjet -21%, Norwegian -22%, Ryanair -6%, Southwest -0.2%, Spring China +2%, Wizz -20%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor -7%, InterContinental -7%, Marriott +10%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +8%, Shangri-La +0.5%.
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM -4%, Sands -8%, Wynn -18%.
-Planemakers. Airbus -10%, Boeing -1%, Embraer -19%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -4%, Fraport -11%, Guangzhou -11%.
-Cruisers. Carnival -7%, RCC -6%, Star -23%.
-Travel-tech heavies. Amadeus +1%, Booking -10%, Expedia -7%, Trip +3%.
-No-hopers. Hertz -25%, Jet India -2%, Norwegian -22%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt -2%, Hong Kong -7%, London -2%, Tokyo +0.2%, US (average of our five -3%).
Numbers - Sectors:
-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific -6%, Europe -15%, US -7%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -36%, Europe -52%, US -43%.
-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels -0.1%, Others -15%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -41%, Hotels -24%, Others -42%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -28%, Hotels -10%, Others -28%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -61%, Hotels -42%, Others -61%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels -8%, Others -10%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -56%, Hotels -36%, Others -36%.
-China -2%. Compared with end-2019: +6%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -3%. Compared with end-2019: -6%.
-Travel-tech -6%. Compared with end-2019: -32%.
-Stockmarkets -2%. Compared with end-2019: -7%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 142, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 122, US 261. Index previous month: World 154, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 89. Index previous month 90. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 99. Index previous month 103. Index end-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel business updates
1 October 2020
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts for the Middle East this year:
-1.7mn jobs, a 52% share, will be lost in aviation and related industries.
-323,000 jobs forecast to be lost in aviation, a 46% share.
-Aviation-related GDP forecast to fall by US$105bn; that would be 49% below pre-covid.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] In China, the 8-day Golden Week holiday starts this week. The Economist quotes Qunar, an OTA, as forecasting 15mn +10% domestic air seats will be sold. Total trips forecast to be 600mn -25%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-20-26 September occupancy 48.7% (-31.5%), average room rate US$96.38 (-29.6%).
-13-19 September 48.6% (-31.9%) US$95.84 (-28.9%).
-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)
-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).
-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)
-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).
-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%) US$99.24 (-27.3%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
30 September 2020
[] Omio, a travel app and platform, forecasts five non-France destinations in top-20 for travellers from France this year* - Brussels #8, Barcelona 10, Munich 11, Berlin 13, Milan 19.
*Notes:
-Period is not clear, or whether these are Omio clients, or if bookings for 2020, or actual travel.
-Omio also lists ‘Reindeer’ as a destination city. Not clear if this is the city of Rovaniemi in Finland.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts 2020 traffic (presumed to be RPKs) will fall -66%.
  IATA puts its earlier forecast at -63%, but our database shows it forecast for 2020:
-In August, a -60% fall, although it defined that as ‘passenger journeys’, prompting us to wonder if it counts a traveller Paris-Dubai(flight change)-Singapore-return as 1 ‘passenger journey’ or 4).
-In July, -55% (‘traffic’).
-In April, -46% (‘traffic’).
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
29 September 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -59.76%. 2. -66.68%. 3. -67.35%. 4. -53.92%. 5. -60.59%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-September 27. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -86.3%. 4. -51.2%. 5. -71.3%.
-September 20. 1. -69.0%. 2. -82.0%. 3. -86.8%. 4. -52.0%. 5. -72.3%.
-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.
-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.
-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.
-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports August RPKs -75.3%, ASKs -63.8%, load factor 58.5% -27.2pt.
  RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -69.2%, Europe -73.0%, Middle East -91.3%, North America -77.8%.
  International RPKs -88.3% - Asia Pacific -95.9%, Europe -79.9%, Middle East -92.3%, North America -92.4%.
  Domestic RPKs - 50.9% - Australia -91.5%, Brazil -67.0%, China -19.1%, India -73.6%, Japan -68.6%, Russia +3.8%, US -69.3%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
28 September 2020
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 103 in August. Index previous month 91. Index end-2019 157.
  Comments:
-August results showed our travel-tech stocks collectively climbed back above their 100 baseline, which is from end-2014.
-Despite some disappointment in recent months, there are now indications that travel-tech is performing better than all-travel.
-Seven of our eight stocks were growing, but better than that, growth was good - broadly +11-26%. That excludes the -4% for Lastminute, and +1% for Trivago.
-But for Trivago, even that slight growth is good for the company, which is only at 16% of its baseline price.
-And again apart from Lastminute and Trivago, the other six stocks performed comfortably above their local stockmarkets. Growth at eDreams was 25pts above its local stockmarket.
-One of the eight, Booking, is now above its pre-covid prices, this past January! (Not shown in table.)
-And close (likely to climb above with September prices) are Trip and Trip Advisor. (Not shown in table.)
-(We will now start to mark the comparison with end-2019. Some stocks had started to fall in January, because news about covid started to leak out during that month. Booking and Trip are closest to getting back above their end-2019 prices.)
*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Aug 20

Jul 20

Jun 20

Dec 19

Dec 18

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

Amadeus

46.9

42.4

46.4

72.8

60.8

40.7

10.7

1.7

142

138

Booking╪

1910

1662

1592

2054

1722

1275

14.9

9.6

168

163

eDreams

2.26

1.79

2.47

4.27

2.38

1.90

26.3

1.7

137

133

Expedia

98.2

81.0

82.2

108

113

124

21.2

4.7

115

112

Lastminute

19.7

20.5

22.8

46.0

17.5

13.1

-4.1

1.9

131

128

Trip╪

30.2

27.2

25.9

34.9

27.1

46.8

11.2

4.7

65

63

Trip Advisor

23.4

20.2

19.0

30.4

53.6

NA

15.5

4.7

50

49

Trivago

1.84

1.82

1.97

2.62

5.63

na

1.1

4.7

16

15

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, October
25 September 2020
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2020: Jul -80.4%E; Jun -87.5%P; May -90.2%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2020: Jul -89.7%E; Jun -92.1%P; May -93.0%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2020: Jul -79.5%E; Jun -91.7%P; May -96.0%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2020: Jul -76.4%E; Jun -83.9%P; May -86.7%.[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 132; Jul 112; Jun 125. TBA.
[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Jul -79.8%; Jun -86.5%; May -91.3%. IATA.
[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 153; Jul 132; Jun 138. TBA.
[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 154; Jul 132; Jun 137. TBA.
[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 103; Jul 91; Jun 99. Net Value.
[] World visitor arrivals: 2020: Jun -92.6%; May -96.4%; Apr -97.1%. WTO. [] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 45; Jul 40; Jun 44. TBA.
[] AsPac visitor arrivals, estimate: 2020: Jun -98.5%; May -99.2%; Apr -99.6%. TBA.
[] Europe airport passengers, intl: 2020: Jun -93.2%; May -97.8%; Apr -98.4%. ACI.
[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 132; Jul 113; Jun 123. TBA.
[] Europe visitor arrivals: 2020: Jun -89.8%; May -96.3%; Apr -97.5%. WTO.

US travel business updates
24 September 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -59.55%. 2. -66.32%. 3. -66.85%. 4. -54.08%. 5. -60.24%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-September 20. 1. -69.0%. 2. -82.0%. 3. -86.8%. 4. -52.0%. 5. -72.3%.
-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.
-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.
-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.
-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-13-19 September occupancy 48.6% (-31.9%), average room rate US$95.84 (-28.9%).
-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)
-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).
-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)
-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).
-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%) US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9%) US$98.56 (-28.0%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

World region hotel results
23 September 2020
STR* reports on hotels in August:
-Asia Pacific occupancy -31.0% to 50.8%, average room rate -27.3% to US$69.81.
-Central/South America -66.4% 20.2% -34.7% US$53.66.
-Europe -44.6% 43.0%  -13.0% US$124 (€103.95).
-Middle East -32.5% 42.6% -26.3% US$115.46.
-US -31.7% 48.6% -22.8% US$102.46.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTO on domestic travel
22 September 2020
WTO* reports on domestic travel - as a sector likely to recover from covid faster than international travel. (In fact, this is already happening, and seen in many statistics.)
  It reports:
-In 2018, there were 9bn domestic trips.
  WTO notes this was 6x international arrivals, but does not note growth, or estimates for 2019. Our database indicates growth was flat in 2018, or perhaps a fractional fall (-0.2%). For 2019 we estimated +3.5%, which is the same growth as for international travel.
  Travel numbers have less value because there are different types of measures, with many not comparable from one destination to the next. As noted above, WTO reports 9bn trips for 2018. We estimate 10bn but, as noted, the total itself does not have much value; country-by-country measures have more actionable value.
-WTO reports that domestic travel spend in (the 37) OECD* destinations is 75% of total travel spend, and in the EU* 1.8x higher than inbound travel spend.
  To partially match presentation of these two measures, we calculate that domestic travel spend: in the OECD is 3x higher than international spend; in the EU 64% of total travel spend.
  Note, however, that the WTO compares with outbound spend for the OECD measure, but with inbound spend for the EU measure. It does not attempt to harmonise these.
-Largest domestic markets in terms of spend are the US US$1tn, Germany US$249bn, Japan US$201bn, UK US$154bn, Mexico US$139bn. Changes or year not given.
-Some initiatives to boost domestic travel: Costa Rica moved all 2020-21 holidays to Mondays to create long weekends; Italy, per-capita (PC) contributions of US$595 (€500) to spend on domestic accommodation; Malaysia US$227 PC vouchers for domestic travel; Malta US$120 (€100) PC vouchers for retail spend; Thailand to subsidise 5mn hotel nights at 40% of ‘normal’ (whatever they are) room rates for five nights.
*Notes:
-OECD. (Most from Wikipedia.) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. An inter-governmental economic body with 37 member countries. Founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. Sometimes described as a ‘rich-country body’ as its members are in general the wealthiest developed countries.
-EU (European Union) comprises 27 countries since the UK left end-2019.
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking:
Travel Traffic, Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world
21 September 2020
Our ‘TBA Travel Industry Indices’ from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows the following monthly traffic growths*.
World
2020: Jul -80.4%E; Jun -87.5%P; May -90.2%; Apr -91.8%; Mar -62.8%; Feb -8.9%.
Asia Pacific
2020: Jul -89.7%E; Jun -92.1%P; May -93.0%; Apr -96.2%; Mar -64.4%; Feb -27.3%.
Europe
2020: Jul -79.5%E; Jun -91.7%P; May -96.0%; Apr -94.2%; Mar -56.7%; Feb +2.7%.
US
2020: Jul -76.4%E; Jun -83.9%P; May -86.7%; Apr -90.0%; Mar -53.2%; Feb -4.2%.
*Notes:
-Aggregates of airline seats sold, airline RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency sales, visitor arrivals.
-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

US travel business updates
18 September 2020
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for August:
-Air tickets sold US$751mn -90%; average US roundtrip ticket US$321 -$162; passenger trips 6.07mn -76% (domestic 4.4mn -72%, international 1.6mn -82%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$1.80mn -73%; EMD transactions 35,508 -70%.
-Compared with July 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +94%; passenger trips +19% (domestic +22%, international +10%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-August occupancy 48.6% -31.7%, average room rate US$102.46 -22.8%.
-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)
-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).
-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)
-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).
-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%) US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9%) US$98.56 (-28.0%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Visitors; first half
17 September 2020
WTO* reports:
-Visitor arrivals fell -440mn -65% Jan-Jun, and -93% in June. Number not given.
-By region - Americas -55%, Asia Pacific -72%, Europe -66%, Middle East -57%.
-By sub-region - Northeast Asia -83%, Southern Mediterranean -72%. WTO lists just these two, noting their falls were the greatest.
-Visitor spend -US$460bn Jan-Jun, 5x the fall in 2009 after the 2008 world financial crisis.
-By early September, 53% of destinations had eased travel restrictions.
-In May, WTO forecast based on three scenarios, expecting 58-78% falls for all-2020. It now forecasts -70%.
-It forecasts a return to 2019 visitor arrival numbers will take 2-4 years.
*Notes:
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
16 September 2020
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in August at 853k -88.8%, YTD 19.0mn -66.2%.
[] LTI (Luxury Travel Intelligence) publishes what it counts as the best luxury hotel brands.
  We list just LTI’s top-5 - Six Senses 82.8% (of LTI’s 4494-point criteria; SS was #8 in 2019), Aman 82.3% (2), Auberge 79.3% (5; see below), Belmond 78.7% (1), Mandarin Oriental 78.0% (2).
  However, we question in/ex-clusion of some other brands. In terms of travelling-public awareness - &Beyond, Alila, Althoff, Auberge, Cheval Blanc, Firmdale, Maybourne, Montage, Nikki Beach, Oetker. In terms of mix (luxury- having the same brandname as standard-hotels - Oberoi). Or exclusion (Regent, Waldorf-Astoria).
*Notes:
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

France travellers
15 September 2020
A study by VVF* on France travellers found:
-Of those who took a holiday this past summer, 72% were satisfied; another 24% also, but felt concerned about the sanitary measures; 4% were not happy.
-Of the 83% who planned to take a holiday, 73% already did, 11% are due to go this month, 16% decided not to travel.
-Of that 16%, 60% were worried about covid, 17% did not have enough money, 13% problems related to travel agency or employer; 10% because they were concerned about ‘things’.
-90% travelled domestically this year, compared with 76% in 2019, and forecast to be 79% in 2021. Within Europe 9% 17% 15%. Outside Europe 1% 7% 6%.
-Accommodation shares. Camping/holiday centres etc were 77% this year, compared with 65% in 2019, and are forecast to be 74% in 2021. Friends/AirBnB-like 18% 24% 17%. Hotels 3% 11% 6%.
*Notes:
-VVF Ingenierie, a France-based consultant.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel business updates
14 September 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -59.31%. 2. -65.91%. 3. -66.28%. 4. -54.13%. 5. -59.93%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.
-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.
-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.
-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-30 August-5 September occupancy 49.4% (-18.9%), average room rate US$100.97 (-17.1%).
-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)
-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).
-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%) US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9%) US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%) US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%) US$101.36 (-20.9%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
11 September 2020
[] Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company, reports 115 corporate deals (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the worldwide travel business in August. It puts that at +4.5% over July; sometimes it makes comparisons over the same month one year earlier.
[] STR* reports on London hotels in August: occupancy -64.4% to 30.7%, average room rate -42.9% to US$108 (£86.40).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
10 September 2020
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in August for US hotel companies was 3,582 +19.0% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -32.0%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 155. Previous month: 132.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 132. Previous month: 112.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 155, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285. Previous month: World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 103. Previous month: 91.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 90. Previous month: 83.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Travel business updates
9 September 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -58.97%. 2. -65.40%. 3. -65.59%. 4. -54.11%. 5. -72.7%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.
-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.
-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel business updates
7 September 2020
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-23-29 August occupancy 48.2% (-27.7%), average room rate US$98.39 (-23.2%)
-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%), US$100.08 (-22.7%).
-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%), US$101.41 (-23.0%).
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%), US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -58.67%. 2. -64.94%. 3. -64.94%. 4. -54.07%. 5. -59.17%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.
-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Mastercard on travel spend
4 September 2020
Mastercard reports travel & entertainment (T&E) spend in one month* (July) was:
-For fastest-3 recovery markets -25% in Italy, -28% Russia, -28% France.
-Slowest-3 -84% Korea, -82% India, -81% China.
-Selected (by TBA) important markets -34% Australia, -41% Germany, -41% US, -64% UK.
-Other findings: World recovery rate of small independent hotels outpaced recovery of large hotels by 50%. US T&E spend -21.5% in July (-25.9% June).
*Notes:
-Data for one month is risky in normal times, but in these covid times, may be worth almost nothing.
-Most are our estimates on MC data.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTTC forecasts spend in US
3 September 2020
WTTC* forecasts:
-Spend by visitors to the US this year will be US$155bn below what was originally forecast (we believe by WTTC), which would be -79%.
  Other relative past data:
-2019 visitor-spend US$195.1bn, a 16% share; domestic travel 84%.
-New York shares (in 2018) were 45% and 55%.
*Notes:
-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
-An important part of its work has been to explain to world governments how valuable was the travel business (which, in respect of its name, the WTTC must define as the meaningless ‘travel & tourism’).
-What the WTTC has been struggling to do in its 30 years of existence, was achieved in 4/5 months of the covid coronavirus this year. Surely everyone now knows the value of the travel business?
-Although not expected to disband, WTTC has not yet announced any new/replacement mission.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
2 September 2020
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports July RPKs -79.8%, ASKs -70.1%, load factor 57.9% -27.7pt.
  RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -72.2%, Europe -81.3%, Middle East -92.5%, North America -80.6%.
  International RPKs -91.9% - Asia Pacific -96.5%, Europe -87.1%, Middle East -93.3%, North America -94.5%.
  Domestic RPKs -57.5% - Australia -90.0%, Brazil -77.7%, China -28.4%, Japan -65.2%, Russia -17.1%, US -72.6%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Updates from France:
-A survey by France’s DMO found the following markets thinking of a leisure trip to France in the next six months, in order of interest: France 68%, Belgium 24, Switzerland 15, Netherlands 12, China 9, Germany 8, Spain 7, UK 7, Italy 6, US 5.
-Those using Ski-Mojo* on ski slopes in France this past winter totalled 9000 +35%.
*Notes: Leg-support equipment, helping skiers ski longer and better.

TBA Tracking: August travel stocks - mainly ups!
1 September 2020
Commentary (category numbers below):
-Travel stocks in our three regions grew over the month, although they are still well below their end-2019 prices. See below.
-Despite that generally good news, some big unexpected falls - SAS -18%, Genting -35%, CITS -14%.
-Outside China, those back to end-2019 levels - Avis +6% its end-2019 price, China Airlines -5%, Choice -4%, Wizz -0.2%. In China, CITS, Jinjiang Hotels, Spring, are above their end-2019 prices.
-Airlines did not grow as fast as hotels (except in AsPac, although the hotel sector there is less developed), but at least they grew.
Some specifics:
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +10%, Delta +24%, ICAG +27%/+21% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa +16%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +3%, Easyjet +28%, Norwegian -47%, Ryanair +15%, Southwest +22%, Spring China +11%, Wizz +21%.
-Giant hotel groups - Accor +22%, InterContinental +25%, Marriott 23%. (The first-2 boosted by merger rumours?)
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin, Shangri-La both +13%.
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +40%, Sands +16%, Wynn +21%.
-Planemakers. Airbus +12%, Boeing +9%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +11%, Fraport +16%, Guangzhou +7%.
-Cruisers. Good for Carnival +19% and RCC +41%, but bad for Star -35% (but its business model is mixed).
-Travel-techs. Good; only one fall, Lastminute -4%.
-No-hopers mixed. Norwegian -47% but Hertz +1%, Jet India flat.
-TUI, despite bad general news, +15% in Frankfurt, +14% in London, but still -68%/-65% since end-2019.
Numbers - Sectors:
-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific +3%, Europe +13%, US +18%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -32%, Europe -45%, US -38%.
-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines +13%, Hotels +5%, Others -9%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -39%, Hotels -24%, Others -34%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines +7%, Hotels +19%, Others +11%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -50%, Hotels -36%, Others -48%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines +19%, Hotels +21%, Others +16%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -54%, Hotels -30%, Others -30%.
-China +7%. Compared with end-2019: +7%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +7%. Compared with end-2019: -4%.
-Travel-tech +12%. Compared with end-2019: -28%.
-Stockmarkets +3%. Compared with end-2019: -5%. Above their end-2019 levels Korea New York-Nasdaq New York-S&P New Zealand Shanghai Stockholm Taipei.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 154, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285. Index previous month: World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 90. Index previous month 83. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 103. Index previous month 91. Index end-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

TBA Tracking: Airline financial results compared
31 August 2020
Our results database compares latest airline results against our calculated non-industry-standard measures*. For Qantas whole group US$259 revenue-per-seat-sold, US$2.25 operating-profit-per-seat-sold (year earlier US$216 US$15.7).

*Notes: Data from airline, and most excerpted from the current Asia Pacific edition of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Travel business updates
28 August 2020
[] Hong Kong-based Shangri-La Hotels Jan-Jun results include:
-Revenue US$453.5mn (quoted in US$) -62.1%.
-Occupancy 26% -40pts, average room rate US$139, which we calculate is -16.8%.
-Highest occupancy Singapore 42%, which we calculate is -36pts; highest rate France US$1128, which we calculate is -7.5%.
  SLH now includes Hong Kong as part of China, not a semi-separate special zone in China - as its official name.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* forecasts overtourism this year. However, it gives no data, only forecasts international departures from Europe’s main markets - France, Germany, Italy, UK - will be -40% this year, domestic -25%.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-16-22 August occupancy 48.8% (-30.3%), average room rate US$100.08 (-22.7%).
-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%), US$101.41 (-23.0%).
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%), US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
27 August 2020
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports on Japan's travel market:
-2019 gross bookings US$104.4bn (quoted in US$) +3.6%, 2nd after China.
-Forecast this year US$47.8bn -54.2%.
-Once highest online penetration in AsPac - 42% 2018, 43% 2019, forecast 45% this year. Now 4th after Australia/New Zealand (which PCW reports as a single market), China, India.
-Forecast share this year 45% of travel bookings will be made online.
-Channel shares (our Net Value estimates on PCW data) - 2018 supplier 27%, OTA 18%, offline 55%; 2019 28% 19% 53%; forecast this year 30% 20% 50%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] A study by IGLTA* found:

-66% of its members would ‘feel comfortable’ travelling again for leisure before end-2020; September and October most popular.
-45% would be likely/very likely to take a shorthaul flight (up to 3-hours) in the next six months.
*Notes:
-The industry segment, and thus the initials, is complicated. US-based IGLTA is formally the International LGBTQ+ Travel Association; before it added Q as a category, it was the International Gay & Lesbian Travel Association. Of those, L=lesbian, G=Gay, B=Bi-sexual, T=trans-sexual, Q=queer (US meaning, not UK), and the + is for other categories. One count gave 27 categories - which may mean the industry segment is now too diverse to warrant a specific marketing approach.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Global Data reports on deals* by companies in the travel business in July:
  Deals done 110 +0.9%. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but this one over previous month.
*Notes:
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ - which may be only part travel-business.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
26 August 2020
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 91 in July. Index previous month 99. Index end-2019 157.
  Comments:
-July results were disappointing - another fall in our Index, and still further below the 100 baseline.
-Yet part of the disappointment is that travel-tech was generally assumed likely to perform better than all-travel.
-As last month, five of our eight stocks were falling, but different ones. Only Booking, Trip, Trip Advisor grew.
-There does not seem to be a close like with moves in their local stockmarkets. In the two stockmarkets that fell, our travel-tech stocks fell further.
-Four are still below their base price. That’s a continuing surprise for Expedia and Trip, but Trivago has been falling for most of the time it has been listed.
-All eight are still below their pre-covid prices, this past January. (Not shown in table.)
-We are frequently caught out with trends. With April results, we thought none seemed likely to catch up in statistical terms for at least 3/4 months. In May, we thought Booking’s trend line indicated it might recover by end-July. In June, it fell back again, and then recovered in July! Now, along with Trip, both are around -20% of their end-2019 prices; recovery, then, before end-2020?

*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US - one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20


Company

Price,local currency

Growth┼,%

NVTT* index

Jul 20

Jun 20

May 20

Dec 19

Dec 18

Dec 15

stock

market

Company

All

Amadeus

42.4

46.4

46.9

72.8

60.8

40.7

-8.7

-4.5

128

140

Booking╪

1662

1592

1639

2054

1722

1275

4.4

6.8

146

159

eDreams

1.79

2.47

2.86

4.27

2.38

1.90

-27.5

-4.5

108

119

Expedia

81.0

82.2

79.5

108

113

124

-1.4

4.8

95

104

Lastminute

20.5

22.8

20.2

46.0

17.5

13.1

-10.1

-0.2

137

150

Trip╪

27.2

25.9

25.9

34.9

27.1

46.8

4.9

4.8

58

64

Trip Advisor

20.2

19.0

20.0

30.4

53.6

NA

6.4

4.8

44

48

Trivago

1.82

1.97

2.10

2.62

5.63

na

-7.6

4.8

15

17

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Travel business updates
25 August 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -58.30%. 2. -64.41%. 3. -64.28%. 4. -53.98%. 5. -58.71%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] UK-based Juniper Research forecasts:
-Digital ticketing transaction volumes will grow to 32bn (JR rounded) in 2022. It puts this as +150% growth. It is actually +152% - but that is based on JR’s 12.7bn forecast for this year; it gives no data for 2019. We calculate 2020-22 AAGR (annual average growth rate) would be +58.8%; we believe that is not fast as we estimate a Dead Cat Bounce would produce around +50% in 2021 over 2020.
-Ticket sales to recover from 18bn fall in 2020. JR provides no further data. We do not know what the 18bn is, or when it will recover.
-Digital ticket values forecast to fall -US$400bn this year. No further data.
-Contactless ticketing transaction volumes forecast to grow to 13bn in 2022. JR reports this as +200% growth, although its own figures calculate to +664.7%! We calculate 2020-22 AAGR +176.5%.
*Notes:
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our Net Value monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Consumer Choice Center reports top passenger-friendly airports in Europe - Zurich 205 points, Dusseldorf 165, Copenhagen 155, Manchester 153,  Brussels 152.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, September
24 August 2020
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2020: Jun -85.7%E; May -90.8%P; Apr -91.8%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2020: Jun -91.8%E; May -95.8%P; Apr -96.2%%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2020: Jun -88.7%E; May -94.9%P; Apr -94.2%.
[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2020: Jun -82.7%E; May -86.7%P; Apr -90.0%.
[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 112; Jun 125; May 137. TBA.
[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Jun -86.5%; May -91.3%; Apr -94.3%. IATA.
[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 132; Jun 138; May 144. TBA.
[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 132; Jun 137; May 136. TBA.
[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 91; Jun 99; May 100. Net Value.
[] World visitor arrivals: 2020: May -97.6%; Apr -96.9%; Mar -55.0%. WTO.
[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 40; Jun 44; May 44. TBA.
[] AsPac visitor arrivals, estimate: 2020: May -99.2%; Apr -99.6%; Mar -64.4%. TBA.
[] Europe airport passengers, intl: 2020: May -97.8%; Apr -98.4%; Mar -59.5%. ACI.
[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 113; Jun 123; May 126. TBA.
[] Africa visitor arrivals: 2020: May -98.5%; Apr -95.8%. WTO.
[] China travel stocks index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), on 100: 2020: Jul 83; Jun 78; May 80; Apr 81. TBA.
[] Eva Air seat sales: 2020: Jul -95.8%; Jun -97.5%; May -98.0%.
[] Frankfurt airport passengers: 2020: Jul -80.9%; Jun -90.9%; May -95.6%.
[] Hawaii visitor arrivals: 2020: Jun -98.2%; May -98.9%.
[] Hong Kong visitor arrivals: 2020: Jun -99.3%; May -99.8%; Apr -99.9%.
[] North America air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Jun -86.3%; May -92.5%; Apr -96.6%. IATA.
[] Ryanair seat sales: 2020: Jul -70.3%; Jun -97.2%; May -99.5%.
[] Singapore Airlines seat sales: 2020: Jul -98.6%; Jun -99.3%; May -99.5%.
[] South America visitor arrivals: 2020: May -99.6%; Apr -98.6%. WTO.
[] Southwest Airlines seat sales: 2020: Q2 -85.0%; Q1 -20.9%.
[] Spain visitor arrivals: 2020: May -100%; Apr -100%; Mar -64.3%. Tourmis/WTO.
[] UK resident departures: 2020: Q1 -23.5%. 2019: Dec +4.3%; Nov +5.0%. gov.
[] UK visitor arrivals: 2020: Q1 -16.1%. 2019: Dec +12.0%; Nov -1.2%. gov.
[] US hotel occupancy: 2020: Jun -42.6%; May -51.8%. STR.
[] US outbound travel, overseas: 2019: Dec +5.0%; Nov +2.9%.
[] US travel agency sales: 2020: Jun -94.0%; May -102.1%. ARC.
[] US travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 243; Jun 243. TBA.
[] US visitor arrivals, overseas (2017 restated Sep 18): 2020: Jun -98.9%; May -99.4%.

Travel business updates
21 August 2020
[] MKG* (a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown) has reported some hotel data for summer*. Some excerpts (our commentary; see also Notes):
[] France occupancy (Jan-mid/Aug) 80%, Paris 47%.
  Although Paris is a big tourist destination in July and August, reduced business travel in those months lowers total occupancy. In addition, this year results were obviously affected by covid. All-France was less affected by covid as greater domestic travel boosted totals.
[] July. France occupancy 51%, average room rate US$97 (at US$1 to €0.84); Italy 36 117; Germany 35 101; Spain 30 136. MKG does not report the region’s biggest market, the UK.
*Notes:
-MKG focuses on hotel revpar (revenue per available room), which has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business. As a result, we reduce our report to measures other than revpar.
-Surprisingly, MKG does not define ‘summer’, but we assume it is reporting for July through August 16, although ‘summer’ should normally be July-plus-August. We presume competitive pressure pushes MKG to give some results before the end of the period covered!
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in Q2 0.4mn -97.8%, YTD 17.6mn -56.7%.
[] STR* reports on hotels in July:
-Asia Pacific occupancy -36.5% to 46.3%, average room rate -30.6% to US$64.35.
-Brazil -71.7% to 17.0%, -28.1% to US$39 (R208.61).
-Central/South America -68.6% to 19.0%, -33.8% to US$53.40.
-Europe (not defined) -66.4% to 26.5%, -20.9% to US$114.80 (at US$1 to €0.84).
-Middle East -41.8% to 35.3% -9.6% to US$106.93.
-UK -67.1% to 28.0%, -36.3% to US$83 (£66.74).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
20 August 2020
[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for July: air tickets sold US$387mn -95%; average US roundtrip ticket US$355 -$143; passenger trips 5.12mn -80% (domestic 3.6mn -77%, international 1.4mn -84%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$1.74mn -75%; EMD transactions 32.5k -73%.
-For July (compared with June 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: passenger trips -10% (domestic -14%, international +2%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-9-15 August occupancy 50.2% (-30.0%), average room rate US$101.41 (-23.0%)
-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%), US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] OE* forecasts visitor arrivals (VAs) will fall -57% this year, which would mean 847mn fewer arrivals. Other forecasts:
-VAs to return to 2019 levels ‘by 2024’. OE does not give totals, nor clarify if that is a total for 2023 or 2024; we believe it is 2024.
-Region VAs this year. North America -69% ((it also reports -70%) this year, Asia Pacific -57% or -203mn, Northeast Asia -61%, Europe -56% or -414mn arrivals.
-Destination VAs this year. Spain -55%, US -76.5% or -61mn VAs.
-City VAs this year, top-3 in three regions. Bangkok -66% (-14.5mn all-Thailand), Hong Kong -71%, Macau -60%. London -60% or -9.8mn, Paris -48%, Rome -53%. Los Angeles -77%, New York -79%, Orlando -78%.
-Domestic VAs forecast to return to 2019 levels ‘by 2022’. OE does not give totals, nor clarify if that is a total for 2021 or 2022; we believe it is 2022.
*Notes:
-OE = UK-based Oxford Economics, unrelated to the university.
-Topics and numbers selected by OE.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
19 August 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -57.83%. 2. -63.84%. 3. -63.54%. 4. -53.74%. 5. -58.20%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in July 563k -92.9%, YTD 18.1mn -62.7%.
[] STR* reports July US hotels occupancy 47.0% -36.1%, average room rate US$101.76 -24.8%.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel deals done
18 August 2020
Global Data reports on deals* by companies in the travel business. Findings include:
[] In Europe Q2:
-Deals done 53 -53.1% over average of last 4 Qs, which was 113.
-Deals done worth US$2.81bn.
-M&A (mergers and acquisitions) accounted for 35 deals, a 66.0% share, worth US$2.64bn. Venture-financing 12 US$42.26mn, Private-equity six US$128.67mn.
-Top-5 deals worth US$2.69bn, 95.6% share.
[] In the US Q2:
-Deals done 35 -37.5% over Q1, and -50% (GD rounded) over last four Qs average.
-Deals done worth US$387.67mn -94.4% over Q1, and -96.4% over last four Qs average of US$10.73bn.
-US M&A (mergers and acquisitions) worth US$3.64bn, 10.7% share.
-Top-5 deals worth US$380.6mn, 98.2% share.
[] North America deals Q2
-Deals done 60, -52% over average of last 12 months, which was 125.
-Deals done worth US$3.3bn. Growth not given.
-Leading category, deals: M&A 30 deals, 60% share; venture financing 20, 33.3%; private equity 4, 6.7%.
-Leading category, value: private equity US$2.25bn; venture financing US$666.95mn; M&A US$387.67mn.
[] M&A deals Q2
-Deals done worth US$3.64bn -71.8% over last Q, and -80.4% over average of last 4 Qs, which was US$18.59bn.
-Europe top, US$2.64bn; Sweden top US$2.32bn.
-Top country US 35 deals, UK 15, China 10.
[] M&A deals H1
-Deals done worth US$16.58bn -58.3%.
[] Venture financing deals Q2
-Deals done worth US$1.09bn +86.6% over Q1, and -39.9% over average of last 4 Qs, which was US$1.91bn.
-Top region North America US$667.0mn.
-Top country US US$597.0mn.
-Top country US 19 deals, India 9, China 8.
[] Venture financing deals H1
-Deals done worth US$1.67bn -65.4%.
-Top-5 US$779.01m, 71.7% share. Growth not given.
*Notes:
-Details as reported by GD. Not all follow standard categorisation. Not all same, or same data, etc.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ - which may be only part travel-business.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Aviation business updates
17 August 2020
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports* on Europe:
-August flights -50%.
-Seat sales all-2020 forecast 705mn -60% (IATA uses an irregular term, ‘passenger journeys’; we wonder if IATA counts a traveller Paris-Dubai(flight change)-Singapore-return as 1 passenger journey or 4).
-Seat sales forecast to reach 2019 levels in 2024.
-JAR (Jobs at Risk) in aviation (IATA includes undefined ‘tourism’, but we assume it means the total travel business) 7mn jobs. (IATA’s previous estimate in June was 6mn.)
-Selected markets, by TBA, August (key: Seat sales/Jobs at Risk/GDP): Germany -118mn/551k/-US$39bn; UK -165mn/780k/-US$59bn. (Most rounded by TBA.)
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports* on the Middle East:
-All-2020 traffic forecast to fall -56%. (IATA’s previous estimate in June was -51%.)
-Aviation GDP -US$85bn. (-US$66bn.)
-Job losses in aviation and related industries could be 1.5mn, which we calculate is a 63% share of the region’s total. (1.2mn.)
-Selected markets, by TBA, August (key: Seat sales/Jobs at Risk/GDP): Egypt -14mn/298k/-US$4bn; Saudi Arabia -39mn/323k/-US$20bn; UAE -35mn/421k/-US$26bn. (Most rounded by TBA.)
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
14 August 2020
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports on air trends in selected markets:
-H2 available seats: US 62mn -33%, Brazil 6mn -44%, Canada 5mn -47%, Mexico 5mn -31%.
-July available seats: US 50mn, Brazil 3mn, Canada 2mn, Mexico 4mn. August: 82 12 7 7. September: 93 12 8 8. October: 100 12 8 8. November: 96 12 7 8. December: 99 13 8 9.
-Searches. H1 US 299mn -20%, H1 Mexico -40%. July China +100% (against August), for July India +300% (against August). (Numbers, categories, as shown. As released mid-August, this number will presumably decrease; PCW makes no comment.)
-July available seats Europe -47%.
-Q2 available seats Australia -90%.
-Search shares, July: US domestic 65%, international 35%, Brazil 58%/42%, Canada 26%/74%, Mexico 39%/61%. August: 53/47 53/47 23/77 33/67. September: 47/53 45/55 16/84 30/70. October: 47/53 40/60 11/89 32/68. November: 41/59 28/72 6/94 31/69. December:  31/69 35/65 6/94 34/66.
-Searches, Jan-Jun: China +11% -52% -44% -48% -32% -23%. India +3 +9 -1 -67 -58 -72. Japan +6 +3 -18 -44 -49 -48. Australia -1 0 -12 -87 -91 -87. UAE -1 +2 -31 -88 -86 -85
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR/TE* forecast 2021 US hotel room revenue +US$32bn -32.5% below 2019 revenue.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-TE = Tourism Economics, US-based. Part of Oxford Economics, UK-based, and unrelated to the university.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
13 August 2020
[] Cote d’Azur’s DMO reports onsummer (presumed July/August but report in mid-August):
-July hotel occupancy 58% - 39% in the first week, 72% at the end. (Comparison not given.)
-August 1st 2-weeks 85% -4pts.
-July visits, museums and monuments -40%. (Number not given.)
*Notes:
-Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is brand identity; knowing what is meant by CDA.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports on TUI’s Apr-Jun results (its Q3):
-Summer 2021 bookings +145%. GD does not clarify comparison measure (S20 bookings or actuals). This is important because of the covid distortion this year.
-Revenue US$88.7mn (€75mn) -98.5%.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-2-8 August occupancy 49.9% (-32.6%), average room rate US$100.88 (-24.9%).
-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%), US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates
12 August 2020
[] Findings from an ITB China (ITBC)survey on industry-participants in the China travel market include: 
-90% say travel is a preferred leisure activity.
-40% have recently received enquiries from consumers about outbound travel.
-Over May and June, 60% said their clients were interested in buying travel products.
-Annual spend in the next year. 10.5% estimate under US$700, 60% US$700-2800, 24% US$2800-7060, 5.5% above US$7060. (ITBC roundings.)
-During the Tomb-Sweeping public holiday in April, there were 43.3mn domestic visitors spending US$1.18bn. (Methodology and comparisons not given.)
-During public holidays in May, there were 115mn domestic visitors spending US$6.79bn. (Ditto.)
-During the Dragon Boat public holiday in June, there were 48.8mn domestic visitors spending US$1.75bn. (Ditto.)
-Highest visitor numbers to ‘popular destinations’ has grown +273% over previous period (believed to be start-July to mid-July). Highest number of ‘tourists from popular departure destinations’ +1200% month-on-month. (Methodology, descriptions, numbers, not given.)
*Notes:
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on hotels in July:
-London occupancy -74.8% to 22.8%, average room rate -52.4% to  US$105 (£83.61).
-Sydney -57.9% to 33.2%, -25.7% to US$100 (A$143.68).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
11 August 2020
[] Flightright (FR) reports flights from selected (by TBA) France airports in July:
-Nice -51.3%.
-Paris CDG -51% (FR rounded).
-Paris-Orly -72% (ditto).
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports on Royal Caribbean’s Q2:
-Q2 net loss -US$1.6bn; Q1 -US$1.4bn.
-Cash reserves US$4.1bn.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -57.31%. 2. -63.21%. 3. -62.72%. 4. -53.45%. 5. -57.65%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks
10 August 2020
The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in July for US hotel companies was 3,010 -1.7% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -42.9%.
  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 132. Previous month: 138.
  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 112. Previous month: 125.
  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243. Previous month: World 137, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 243.
  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 91. Previous month: 99.
  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 83. Previous month: 78.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Travel business updates
7 August 2020
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports Latin America* gross travel bookings* were US$65bn +3% in 2019. Other year gross bookings:
-2020 forecast to fall -59% - each country minus 44-63%.
-2018 US$55.5bn -6%.
*Notes:
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.
-A common fault with many reports concerns the terms ‘Latin America’ and North America. LAm is not a geographical term and is usually assumed to include Central America, South America, but also Mexico. Not only is Mexico part of NAm, but the three ‘Guyana’ countries are not ‘Latin’. Reports rarely define what is included and excluded.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* forecasts -31.6% fall in Turkey’s visitor arrivals this year. Our database shows VAs were 51.2mn +11.9% in 2019; we do not know what totals GD uses.
*Notes: GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.

Travel business updates
6 August 2020
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-26 July-1 August occupancy 48.9% (-34.5%), average room rate US$100.04 (-25.3%)
-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] Lufthansa Group reports*:
-Q2 revenue US$2.4bn (at US$1 to €0.93) -80%. Seats sold 1.7mn -96%
-H1 revenue US$8.9bn -52%. Seats sold 23.5mn -66%.
-In July, capacity grew to 20% of its 2019 level. In Q3, capacity is forecast to grow to 40% on short- and medium-haul routes, to 20% on longhaul routes. In Q4, 55% 50%. By end-2020 95% 70%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
5 August 2020
[] IHIF reports Host Hotels as saying its hotels can be viable with 10% occupancy. Other HH data:
-Q2 revenue 103mn (IHIF reports this as UK£, but other data indicates it is US$) -93%.
-Occupancy 6.9% in April, 10.7% in June, Q2 8.8% (82% Q2 2019). Other comparisons not given.
-Average room rate US$129 April, US$194 June, Q2 US$249. No comparisons given.
[] GD* reports that TUI plans to close 166 travel agencies in the UK. Our data indicates it has about 500, which means a 30% share.
  GD research indicates:
-45% of ‘global tourists’ buying more products online. On its own, that figure means little. Nor the definition; what is a ‘global tourist’? 
-20% of consumers who ‘most typically book’ at a brick-and-mortar travel agency were aged 65+.
-43% of those in that age group say they are planning to reduce international travel in the short-term. There are too many unknowns (‘planning’, ‘reduce’, ‘short-term’) for this to have any value.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
4 August 2020
[] Summer on the Cote d’Azur* in France:
-80% of accommodation is open for summer (which we count as through mid-September).
-July hotel occupancy 55% (published two days before month-end).
*Notes:
-Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is brand identity; knowing what is meant by CDA.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -56.71%. 2. -62.53%. 3. -61.86%. 4. -53.05%. 5. -57.01%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: August travel stocks’ ups and (mainly) downs
3 August 2020
Commentary (numbers below):
-China has shaken off covid. Prices in Shanghai were 4% above end-2019. However, including China stocks quoted in other regions and prices were still -8% against end-2019.
-Another bad month for airlines. They fell further than all other sectors in the three regions we cover.
-Four airlines in AsPac grew, but only SAS in Europe, and none in the US. (No clear pattern in AsPac - two in Hong Kong, Korea, New Zealand.)
-Airline giants - Delta -11%, ICAG -23% (London; -24% Madrid), Lufthansa -16%, China Southern +5% (HK; +3% Shanghai).
-No frillers - Air Asia (worries about its survival) -27%, not-so-Easy -27%, Ryan -1%, Southwest -10%, Spring (China) +12%, Wizz -3%.
-No-hope airlines? Hainan China +5%, Jet India -5%, Norwegian -17%. Wheels? Hertz +3%!
-Hotel giants - InterContinental -1%, Marriott -2%.
-Aircraft - Airbus -3%, Boeing a punishing -14%.
-Top hotels AsPac - Mandarin -2%, Peninsula -9%, Shangri-La -16%.
-Sinking cruisers - Carnival -15%, Royal Caribbean -3%, Star -13%.
-Travel-tech. Hard to read - 3 up, 5 down.
-Travel agencies (remember them?) - Amex -2%, CITS (see next), TUI (shuts down 30% of its B&M shops in the UK) -24%.
-Hardest covid hits. Percentage below end-2019 - Hertz -91%, Norwegian -94%.
-Big surprises - Cathay -30%, CITS +58%, eDreams -28%, Jinjiang (Shanghai) +42%.
-Stockmarkets. A surprising number fell; nine - Bangkok Istanbul London Madrid New York-Travel Weekly Paris Singapore Tokyo Zurich.
Numbers - Sectors:
-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines -10%, Hotels -7%, Others -1%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -46%, Hotels -28%, Others -28%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -14%, Hotels -13%, Others -14%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -54%, Hotels -47%, Others -53%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines -12%, Hotels -2%, Others -1%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -63%, Hotels -42%, Others -39%.
-China +13%. Compared with end-2019: +4%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +9%. Compared with end-2019: -8%.
-Travel-tech -5%. Compared with end-2019: -35%.
-Stockmarkets +2%. Compared with end-2019: -12%.
Numbers - Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243. Index previous month: World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 83. Index previous month 80. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 91. Index previous month 99. Index end-2019 170.
  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

Travel business updates
31 July 2020
[] WTO* reports on covid closures:
-40% of destinations have eased travel restrictions at July 19. It was 22% June 15, 3% May 15.
-Of those 87 destinations, four have lifted all restrictions.
-Of the 87, 20 are small islands, many of which depend on tourism as an important part of employment, economy, development.
-Of the 87, 41 are in Europe.
-Of the 115 that have borders closed, 88 have been closed for more than 12 weeks.
*Notes: WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobbying body for the travel business.
[] STR* reports on US hotels:
-19-25 July occupancy 48.1% (-37.9%), average room rate US$99.24 (-27.3%).
-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.
-17-23 May: -50.2% 35.4%, -39.7% US$80.92.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports on the UK travel market:
-Forecasts a fall greater than it forecast in early June - 2020 gross bookings to fall -55% to US$28bn (£22.6bn).
-Monthly changes (our Net Value estimates on PCW data) - Jul -80%, Aug -70%, Sep -60%, Oct -55%, Nov -45%, Dec -35%.
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
30 July 2020
[] Excerpts from II* findings on Germany outbound travel:
-70% will continue to travel abroad (precise period not given), 20% domestic, 10% no travel.
-80% wanted to holiday before end-2020.
-Spain first, then Italy, France, Austria. No data given.
-85% are anxious, and 80% see travel as posing an additional risk of infection.
-For shorthaul destinations, Germany rated safest, then Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria. For longhaul, Korea, Singapore, UAE. No data given.
*Notes:
-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports on latest deals in the travel business in Q2:
-Deals. Value US$8.34bn -59.7% (over Q1) -67.9% over the last 4Q average (US$26.09bn). Number 177 -49% over the last 4Q average (347). Change over Q1 not given.
-North America. Deals worth US$3.3bn. Changes not given.
-Top-5 tourism & leisure deals; we do not know what GD’s other categories are. Share 69.4%. Value US$5.79bn. Comprising: Evolution Gaming’s US$2.32bn purchase of NetEnt; Apollo Global/Silver Lake US$1.2bn private equity deal with Expedia; Silver Lake/TPG Sixth Street US$1bn private equity deal with AirBnB; Nueva Inversiones Pacifico US$876.42mn private equity deal with Sun International; Broadscale/Ervington/Exor/83North/Hearst/Macquarie/Mori/Pitango/Planven/River Park/Shell US$400mn venture financing of Via Transportation.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some of these are not travel-business deals, or loosely.
-We have shortened the name of some companies.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts:
-RPKs to return to pre-covid levels in 2024; before it forecast 2023.
-Seat sales to return to pre-covid levels in 2023; before it forecast 2022.
-55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.
-2020 seat sales to fall -55%; in April it forecast -46%. 2021 seat sales to grow +62% (which would be down -30% on 2019).
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US visitors update
29 July 2020
[] The US DMO has published more data on characteristics of 2019 visitors:
-Total 40.4mn -1.3%, spending US$211.4bn, ‘down slightly’.
-Leisure and VFR (visiting friends or relatives) 33.1mn. Change shown only against 1997, when it was 18.8mn. We do not understand why a comparison is given with a year 22 years ago. We could understand 2000, but also would need a comparison with 2018.
-States visited 1.4 (1.6). Those visiting only one state 75.9% (63.1%).
-Length of stay 16.9 nights (15.4).
-Travel group size 1.7 persons (1.6).
-‘Conventional’ tour package 13.3% share (22.5%).
-Repeat travellers 78.7% (75.3%).
-Female share 48% (34%).
-89.3% rated their experience as ‘average/good/excellent’, 97.1% ‘met or exceeded expectations’, 97.7% expect to revisit. Comparison with 1997 not given.
-76.0% share stayed in hotels/motels for 1+ nights. Comparison with 1997 not given, but -0.2pts over 2018.
*Notes:A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
28 July 2020
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports June RPKs -86.5% (it was -91.0% in May), ASKs -80.1%, load factor 57.6% -26.8pt.
  RPKs by region - Asia Pacific -76.4%, Europe -93.7%, Middle East -95.5%, North America -86.3%.
  International RPKs -96.8% - Asia Pacific -97.1%, Europe -96.7%, Middle East -96.1%, North America -97.2%.
  Domestic RPKs -67.6% - Australia -93.8%, Brazil -84.7%, China -35.5%, Japan -74.9%, Russia -58.0%, US -80.1%.
[] WTO* reports on the visitor business:
-May arrivals fall -300mn -98%; Jan-May -56%.
-Visitor spend Jan-May -US$320bn - 3x loss during the worldwide economic crisis over 2008-9.
*Notes: WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobbying body for the travel business.
[] ARC* has processed US$1bn +558% in refunds over Mar 9-Jul 12 from airlines to US travel agencies - US$745mn in cash, the balance as credit.
*Notes: ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
[] GD* forecasts US ‘spend into’ South America will fall -44.4% ‘between 2020 and 2021’. We believe GD means ‘visitor spend in SA’, but we cannot interpret the period, or the comparison period.
-Spend was US$38.8bn +7.3% in 2019, and the same, +7.3%, AAGR (annual average growth rate) over 2017-9. (GD puts spend in 2017 at US$33bn, which we calculate would mean +8.4% AAGR 2017-9).
-GD forecasts US$54bn ‘by 2024’, which we believe is in 2024, not 2023.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates
27 July 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -56.01%. 2. -61.78%. 3. -60.96%. 4. -52.51%. 5. -56.30%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
24 July 2020
[] STR* shows US hotels gross operating profit per available room down -105.4% to -US$5.89 in June. It was -110.1% in May, -116.9% in April.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
[] STR* reports for June:
-On Asia Pacific hotels: occupancy -43.0% to 38.8%, average room rate -35.2% to US$58.86.
-On Middle East hotels: -42.9% to 33.6%, -24.9% to US$97.31.
-On Europe hotels: -72.8% to 21.6%, -34.8% to US$89.98 (€83.69).
-On Central/South America hotels: -68.9% to 17.3%, -34.6% to US$53.77.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
[] GD* reports on Australia:
-Jan-Apr arrivals 1.8mn -44%. We do not understand why GD has reported this. Not only is more current data needed, but Jan and Feb were not affected, or less affected before covid hit hard. And Apr-Jun at least were badly hit. Our databased shows -54% Jan-May but -68% Feb-May.
-Adelaide, Melbourne, Perth, Sydney ‘attract 85% of international visitor arrivals to the respective region’. GD means 85% ‘to their respective regions’ (we presume South Australia, Victoria, West Australia, NSW). This is not a surprise as these are the capitals and thus main foreign-entry point.
-‘Tourism’ spend is forecast to fall -US$38bn (at US$1 to A$1.44) in 2020-21. It reports visitors spent US$31bn in 2019.
  GD does not clarify is this US$38bn incudes domestic travel spend, nor what proportion of the total this is. Our database shows a total of US$45.7bn +9.1% (quoted in US$) for visitor spend in 2019.
-GD reports Australia residents (GD reports nationals, but we believe this is wrong) spent US$45bn on overseas holidays in 2019. Usually the spend figure is total, not one sector - such as ‘holidays’ noted here. GD does not qualify its figure.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
23 July 2020
 [] STR* reports on US hotels:
-12-18 July occupancy 47.5% (-38.9%), average room rate US$98.56 (-28.0%)
-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).
-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).
-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).
-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.
-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.
-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.
-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.
-17-23 May: -50.2% 35.4%, -39.7% US$80.92.
-10-16 May: -54.1% 32.4%, -42.4% US$77.55.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:
  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -55.30%. 2. -61.01%. 3. -60.06%. 4. -51.95%. 5. -55.57%.
 In 7-day periods through:
-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.
-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.
-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.
-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.
-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.
-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.
-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates
22 July 2020
[] STR* and AirDNA report on 27 international markets over March through 27 June:
-During the last week of the analysis, occupancy for larger short-term rentals was 61.4%, hotel-like short-term rentals 58.2%, hotels 39.2%. Comparisons not given.
-During the last two weeks of the analysis (thus different from the occupancy period), average room rate growths for hotels were +5.1% and +2.4%. Numbers not given, nor the other categories.
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] GD* reports on its study in the US:
-32% will reduce domestic and international travel.
-Forecast fall in domestic travel -31%; period not given.
-California, most-visited state, the ‘value’ its travel industry US$84.6bn in 2019, a 2.5% share of the total GDP.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.
-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, August
21 July 2020
An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.
TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2020: May -93.8%E; Apr -96.6%P; Mar -62.8%.
TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2020: May -91.6%E; Apr -97.5%P; Mar -64.4%.
TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2020: May -86.0%E; Apr -93.9%P; Mar -56.7%.
TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2020: May -86.2%E; Apr -93.8%P; Mar -53.2%.
World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 125; May 137; Apr 129. TBA.
World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 138; May 144; Apr 139. TBA.
World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 137; May 136; Apr 129. TBA.
World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 99; May 100; Apr 91. Net Value.
AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 44; May 44; Apr 46. TBA.
China travel stocks index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), on 100: 2020: Jun 78; May 80; Apr 81. TBA.
Hawaii visitor arrivals: 2020: May -98.9%; Apr -95.5%.
Hong Kong visitor arrivals: 2020: May -99.8%; Apr -99.9%; Mar -98.6%.
Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 123; May 126; Apr 119. TBA.
Frankfurt airport passengers: 2020: Jun -90.9%; May -95.6%; Apr -96.9%.
US travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jun 243; May 241. TBA.

Travel business updates
6 July 2020
[] Unctad* has issued a report on the travel business. As its base finding is wrong (unless mis-stated), we presume the report findings are also wrong.
  Unctad has used WTO* data to state that ‘tourism’ has grown ‘in value’ from US$490bn to US$1.6tn* in the last 20 years.
  It has not.
  Those WTO figures are visitor-spend in destinations. Not only are they subject to different methods of collection (and thus should better be defined as an estimate), but they exclude some spending - most notably on air travel.
  That a United Nations body should make such a giant error - although the WTO is opaque on its methodology - is disturbing for those trying to analyse its analysis of the travel business.
*Notes:
-Unctad = United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Wikipedia reports Unctad, established in 1964, is part of the UN secretariat, dealing with trade, investment, development issues.
-WTO - World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO - is a Spain-based lobby group for the travel business.
-Our WTO database shows US$1.5tn visitor spend in 2019, a US$100bn difference.

Our outlook
29 June 2020
The following extracted from our input for an external report.
What is your assessment of tourism performance in your destination/business the period January-April 2020 compared to what you reasonably would expect for that time of the year?
Much worse
What have been the main determinants for the evolution of tourism in this 4-month period?
Only one, covid. Even if there are other factors, this became essentially the only one.
What are your prospects for tourism performance in your destination/business in the period May-August compared to what you reasonably would expect for this time of the year?
Much worse. However, much better than the previous 4-month period, and getting better.
What will be the main determinants for the evolution of tourism in this 4-month period?
Still a supreme determinant - covid. But other factors will determine the beginning of recovery, although they are still related to covid. The first is access; if a border is closed, then zero travel. Then restrictions - some destinations are requiring money ‘bonds’, quarantine, etc. And as the situation is changing rapidly (sometimes daily), then would-be travellers will stick to ‘safe’. And they will determine what is meant by ‘safe’. Mostly, it will mean domestic travel. Sometimes nearby and ‘travel-corridor-clean’ destinations.
When do you think international tourism will recover?
By Q1 2021. Many assumptions, however, such as vaccine-found, no ‘big’ relapse, etc.
When do you think domestic tourism will recover?
By Q3 2020. But, note, boosted by reduced international outbound. And determined by the product - the US, say,  has a wider product choice for domestic travellers than, say, Belgium.
Do you think domestic tourism will compensate the temporary drop in international tourism in your destination?
Generally it will, although it depends greatly on the destination. As above about US/Belgium. For instance, Hong Kong will not do as well as the US.
  This is our calculation for AsPac:
If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xxx% of visitor arrivals


Market

Share*,%

Australia

47.8

China

173.7

Hong Kong

9.3

India

117.1

Japan

25.2

Korea

65.6

Singapore

22.4

Notes: Based on 2019 data. TBA=Travel Business Analyst. TBA manipulation on counts of inbound and outbound travel. China and Hong Kong include technically-domestic travel between China, Hong Kong, Macau. Source: DMOs for all except China (TBA estimates), Hong Kong (government for outbound), India (TBA estimates for outbound), Singapore (government).

If outbound travel switched to domestic
22 June 2020
See table for our calculation. Excerpts:
-Both China and India would actually have more ‘visitors’ if some of its residents switched from travelling outbound.
-Biggest loser would be Hong Kong. In addition to our statistical finding, we believe that few (less than 5%?) of outbound travellers would switch to a domestic ‘break’.
-Likewise for Singapore.
-For Australia, Japan, and possibly Korea, we believe those switching to domestic would be greater than our statistics indicate.
-For India, our calculation indicates a gain for the inbound market if 40% switched.

If outbound travel switched to domestic
If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xxx% of visitor arrivals


Market

Share*,%

Australia

47.8

China

173.7

Hong Kong

9.3

India

117.1

Japan

25.2

Korea

65.6

Singapore

22.4

Notes: Based on 2019 data. TBA=Travel Business Analyst. TBA manipulation on counts of inbound and outbound travel. China and Hong Kong include technically-domestic travel between China, Hong Kong, Macau. Source: DMOs for all except Australia (government), China (TBA estimates), Hong Kong (government for outbound), India (TBA estimates for outbound), Singapore (government).

US travel forecast to fall
18 June 2020
TE* forecasts for USTA* a -45% fall in total travel spend in the US this year. That is a bigger fall than the -31% expected in domestic and international travel. That means travellers are forecast to spend less when they do travel.
  This matches TE’s May forecast for STR* - a -46% fall in 2020 US hotel occupancy, then +46% in 2021.
  Other findings:
-Domestic traveller spend -40% to US$583bn.
-International visitor spend -75% to US$39bn, with most of the percentage fall from Overseas visitors, -69% to US$12bn. (Spend from Canada and Mexico visitors is bigger, totalling US$17bn.)
-Although recovery is forecast from 2021 in all sectors, some sectors are forecast to be below 2019 results at the end of this forecast period, 2023.
-Still below would be 2023 total visitor arrivals (although Canada and Mexico are forecast to have passed their 2019 totals). But 2023 spend is still forecast to be below 2019 - domestic and international.
-Of course, AAGRs (annual average growth rates) are forecast to be much slower. Of those, where our database has earlier forecasts, USTA forecast a +2.5% AAGR 2018-24 for visitor arrivals; now we calculate it forecasts a -4.9% AAGR over a different 2019-23. (Even if we extrapolate, an AAGR 2019-24 would still be negative, -1.7%.)
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-TE = Tourism Economics. Part of Oxford Economics, and unrelated to the university.
-USTA = US Travel Association. Member- not government-funded. Acts as an industry association, not a promoting body such as a DMO.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel Trottings: A bumbling bureaucrat
17 June 2020
See https://wp.me/pTv9-qq
Excerpt:
...‘Our interpretation is that Guterres (Antonio, head of the United Nations) tells us that travelling can help the world recover from the damage caused by the covid coronavirus.
...‘Now for the most egregious countering fact - travel was the sole cause of the worldwide spread of covid. If the virus started in Wuhan, China, as generally believed, then it would likely have not gone further if the first carrier/s stayed in Wuhan. But they travelled, as did others, and so spread the virus worldwide.
...‘To have the chutzpah not only to ignore this fact, but to add that travel can help the recovery, seems shockingly irresponsible - if not plain stupid.’

WTTC on job/business losses
12 June 2020
The WTTC* has reissued forecasts on job losses due to the covid coronavirus. Its earlier forecasts, in late-April, contained mistakes, some of which we refer to here.
  WTTC did not respond to our questions, and so we were unable to provide all corrections. Its reissued forecast is better presented than its first, although some mistakes are repeated.
  WTTC has forecast for three different scenarios, see below. Its current forecast for the worst-case (see below) includes:
-198mn (WTTC also reports 197mn) travel jobs will be lost due to covid. Previously WTTC did not clarify the period; its new forecast is for 2020. It earlier forecast -101mn job losses, but as the period was not provided, we cannot determine how its current forecast compares with the previous one. WTTC presents this as ‘new research’ and as a +96% growth from the -101mn jobs lost, so it would appear to be the same period, thus 2020.
Regions:
Regions in the ‘worst case’ (numbers rounded by Travel Business Analyst):
-Americas. -30mn (WTTC also reports -31mn) jobs lost (in April it forecast -14mn), -US$5.5tn loss in TGDP (travel GDP) (-US$791bn).
  We cannot understand the 7x difference between the old and new GDP forecasts, particularly as job losses are under 2x.
  Previously, we calculated that sub-regions North America, Latin America, Caribbean, were included in the Americas total. WTTC did not clarify that, but now it does.
  However, WTTC’s geographical knowledge on the Americas remains wrong - surprising given the fact that the organisation’s head is from Mexico! To explain (again), Mexico is part of North America as well as WTTC’s (non-geographical and technically incorrect) ‘Latin America’ (think of the three non-Latin ‘Guyanas’).
  We presume WTTC has not double-counted Mexico’s total, but that it has (wrongly) excluded the country from North America and included it in Latin America.
-Asia Pacific. -115mn -$1.9tn TGDP (-63mn -$1041bn). ThePacific’ was not shown in the earlier report; we presumed it was included in the Asia total but not so marked. WTTC has corrected what we now know was an error.
-Europe. -30mn -$1.6tn TGDP (-13mn -$709bn).
-Sub-region North America -18.2mn -$1.5tn TGDP (-8mn -$681bn).
Scenarios:
[] Worst-case. Current restrictions starting to ease from September for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from October for medium-haul, from November for longhaul. WTTC forecasts that this would cause a -73% fall in arrivals, and -64% in domestic travel - presumably for all-2020. WTTC notes domestic ‘arrivals’, but it is not clear if this is for arrivals in accommodation units, or something different.
[] Mid-case. Current restrictions starting to ease from June for regional travel, from July for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from August for medium-haul, from September for longhaul. That would cause a -53% fall in arrivals, and -34% in domestic travel.
[] Best-case: Current measures starting to ease from June for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from July for medium-haul, from August for longhaul. That would cause a -41% fall in arrivals, and -26% in domestic travel.
*Notes:
-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business. It terms all this a travel GDP (gross domestic product), which we usually reduce to TGDP.
-Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
-WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-WTTC reports that the travel business in 2019 represented a 10% (330mn) share of jobs, 25% of new jobs, 10.3% of world GDP.
-At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers. See https://wp.me/pTv9-q8
15 May 2020
Excerpt:
If outbound travel from selected markets in Europe switched to domestic


Market

Share*,%

 

Of inbound

Of domestic

Austria

15.4

38.0

Belgium

57.5

138.1

Denmark

21.8

23.3

France┼

11.8

6.3

Germany

111.7

27.2

Greece

1.2

6.1

Italy

9.3

10.6

Netherlands

43.9

35.3

Poland

26.0

10.7

Spain

7.9

4.7

Switzerland

52.2

91.8

UK╪

67.1

19.5

Notes:
-TBA manipulation on ES counts on outbound and domestic travel, and on WTO counts on inbound travel.
-*If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xx% of the annual inbound-visitor or domestic-traveller count.
-┼ES has also given an implausible, but unexplained, figure that would near double the shares shown.
-╪Based on 2013 data; even before it decided in 2016 to leave the European Union, the UK cooperated poorly with EU institutions.
Source: ES=Eurostat, TBA=Travel Business Analyst, WTO=World Tourism Organization.

France, Spain summer forecasts
14 May 2020
Home Exchange (HE) and Happydemics (together, HH) have forecast summer travel plans for the France and Spain markets. (HH reports as ‘French’ and ‘Spanish’, but indications are that this is not passport-defined.) Some findings:
[] France.
-49% plan to take a summer holiday. That is -20pts on a 2019 study by Trip Advisor (TA).
-21% have no plans; 13% will not take a summer holiday.
-76% will travel in France, with 15% internationally. We presume the 9% balance is undecided.
-58% will stay in their own holiday home, family home, or private home. HH commentary indicates this is to avoid hotels or holiday centres, to avoid crowding, but no data given. This share looks high, and as it is HE’s business area, perhaps the survey recipients were targetted.
[] Spain.
-43% plan a summer holiday - but with the (cancelling-out) proviso of ‘if the situation gets better’. No comparison given with 2019.
-62% plan to travel in Spain, 27% internationally. As this is 100%, the shares must be of those who plan to travel. In 2019 TA reported 39% planned their summer vacation in Spain. We do not know if we can deduce from this that the 2019 international share was 61%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, HH had not answered our request for clarifications.

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers
12 May 2020
Bernstein* appears to have taken OECD data to calculate winners and losers in dollars if international outbound travel this year switches to domestic travel.
-Top-3 losers - Spain -US$52.4bn, US -US$52.0bn, Turkey -US$32.5bn.
-Top-3 gainers - China +US$238.0bn, UK +US$31.4bn, Germany +US$30.3bn.
*Notes:
-Bernstein is a respected US-based research company, but at press time, it had not answered our request for clarifications.
-We believe its data is for 2018 and takes, say, visitor inbound spend, and deducts outbound spend by residents. We do that with WTO data and get US$55bn for Spain - close to Bernstein’s US$52bn.
-More complicated is China. Does Bernstein include Hong Kong and Macau, which are technically domestic areas? Again, our calculation is US$243bn without HK&M, which appears to indicate HK&M are not included in Bernstein’s China total.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTO 2020 forecast
8 May 2020
The WTO* forecasts all-2020 visitor arrivals (what it terms ‘international tourism’) minus 60-80%. Other data/forecasts:
-Details: World -22% Q1 2020, against +4% all-2019; AsPac -35% +4%; Europe -19% +4%; Americas -15% +2%.
-Fall in Q1 visitor spend (what WTO terms ‘exports’) -US$80bn. It also reports that figure for only March. Our database shows annual total US$1.5tn, so a monthly average US$122bn, but normally around US$100bn monthly in Q1.
-March visitor arrivals -57%.
-WTO’s 2020 forecast-falls are based on three different scenarios: 1, gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July, -58%; 2, same but in early September, -70%; 3, same but in early December, -78%.
-Fall in 2020: visitor arrivals, minus 0.85-1.1bn; visitor spend minus US$0.91-1.2tn.
-Direct ‘tourism’  jobs at risk 100-120mn. Unclear how WTO measures this, as some travel-industry jobs include not just those related to the inbound visitor business but also, say, domestic and outbound.
  WTO also asked some managers in the travel business to forecast:
-Q1: When do you expect tourism demand in your destination will start to recover? Contradiction with other data, some of which comments just on the inbound visitor business, and some of which are unclear.
-Q2: When do you expect international demand for your destination will start to recover? Different from Q1 in that this seems to be for the inbound visitor business.
    -Selected findings, Q1: May-Jun (domestic 14%, intl 3%); Jul-Sep (45%, 24%); Oct-Nov (25%, 34%); 2021 (15%, 39%).
    -Q2: May-Jun (AsPac 4%, Europe 2%, Americas 0 %); Jul-Sep (26%, 28%, 10%); Oct-Nov (31%, 31%, 40%); 2021 (39%, 39%, 50%).
*Notes:
-WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO), is a lobby group for the travel business.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Full-year results
29 April 2020
Selected* (by TBA) 2019 counts from our database. All sourced from relevant principles except Air Asia (our additions of available data), Europe inbound (from Tourmis).
US
Aviation
[] New York JFK AP passengers 62.6mn +2%.
[] Southwest AL seats sold 134.0mn -1%.
Inbound
[] Hawaii 10.3mn +5%.
[] US 40.4mn +1%.
ASIA PACIFIC
Aviation
[] Air Asia (group) seats sold 92.1mn +13%.
[] Air China (group) seats sold 114.8mn +5%.
[] Cathay (group) seats sold 35.2mn -1%.
[] China Eastern (group) seats sold 121.2mn +9%.
[] China Southern (group) seats sold 151.6mn +8%.
[] Hong Kong AP passengers 71.5mn -4%.
[] Japan AL seats sold 35.5mn +2%.
[] Qantas (group) seats sold 56.4mn +1%.
[] Singapore AL (group) seats sold 38.1mn +7%.
[] Singapore AP passengers 69.8mn +3%.
Inbound
[] Australia 9.5mn +6%.
[] Bali 6.2mn +3%.
[] Hong Kong 12.1mn -14%.
[] India 10.9mn +3%.
[] Japan 31.9mn +2%.
[] Maldives 1.7mn +15%.
[] Singapore 19.1mn +3%.
Outbound
[] Australia 11.3mn +2%.
[] Japan 20.1mn +6%.
[] Korea 28.7mn +0.1%.
[] Singapore 10.7mn +3%.

EUROPE

Aviation
[] Air France (not group) seats sold 52.5mn +2%.
[] British AW (not group) seats sold 47.7mn +2%.
[] Easyjet seats sold 96.7mn +9%.
[] Frankfurt AP passengers 70.6mn +2%.
[] London Heathrow AP passengers 80.9mn +1%.
[] Lufthansa (not group) seats sold 71.3mn +2%.
[] Paris CDG AP passengers 76.2mn +5%.
[] Ryanair seats sold 150.2mn +7%.
[] Turkish AL seats sold 74.5mn +3%.
Inbound
[] Berlin 5.5mn +1%.
[] Germany 39.6mn +2%.
[] Madrid 5.4mn +4%.
[] Paris 12.8mn -3%.
[] Switzerland 9.2mn -11%.
[] UK 38.9mn +3%.
Outbound
[] UK 73.0mn +2%.

*Notes: Additional entries due in next month’s WYSK, with a selection included on this site.

WTTC wrong counts
28 April 2020
The WTTC* has issued estimates/forecasts on job losses due to the covid coronavirus that appear to include some mistakes.
  We believe these apparent mistakes are the result of poor presentation, not poor data. As WTTC has not responded to our questions, we are not able to provide corrections.
  It reports/forecasts:
-In one month 25mn jobs lost in the travel business. Period not clear; presumed Mar 25-Apr 24.
-Job losses in the travel business +30% in the last month. Period not clear; presumed Mar 25-Apr 24.
-101mn job losses due to the covid coronavirus. Period not clear.
-Economic loss US$2.7tn off world GDP; it forecast US$2.1tn end-March. Period not clear; presumed 2020.
-1mn jobs lost daily. Period not clear.
  WTTC has also provided regional breakdowns, although these also hide apparent mistakes, see below. (Numbers rounded by Travel Business Analyst.)
-Regions: Americas -14mn jobs lost, -US$791bn loss to GDP; Asia -63mn $1041bn; Europe 13mn $709bn; Middle East 3mn $96bn. Sub-region North America 8mn $681bn.
-Pacific not shown; we presume this is included in the Asia total but not so marked.
-We calculate that sub-regions North America, Latin America, Caribbean, are included in the Americas total - although WTTC does not clarify that.
-Mexico is part of North America and WTTC’s non-geographical Latin America. We presume WTTC has not double-counted Mexico’s total, but that it is (wrongly) excluded from North America and included in Latin America.
*Notes:
-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business.
-Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
-WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Asia Pacific visitor forecasts
24 April 2020
PATA* forecasts:
-Visitor arrivals in 2020 in Asia Pacific 500mn -32%; fall ranging from -16% to -44%.
-Regions. Americas -12%, Northeast Asia -51%, South Asia -31%, Southeast Asia -22%, West Asia (believed to be Middle East) -6%, Pacific -18%. Asia data not given.
-Visitor spend in 2020 in Asia Pacific US$594bn -27%. PATA’s earlier forecast was US$811bn.
-Regions. Americas expected to lose -US$35bn -13% in visitor spend, Asia -US$170bn -36%, Northeast Asia -US$123bn -48%, South Asia -US$13.3bn -33%, Southeast Asia -US$34.6bn -20%, Pacific -US$18bn -18%. West Asia data not given.
*Notes:
-PATA = Pacific Asia Travel Association, a regional promotional body.
-PATA’s 46 destinations include many not usually associated with Asia Pacific – such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, US, and sometimes Turkey (yes). PATA’s data should thus be read with that qualification in mind.
-The top-5 destinations, in order, are China, US, Hong Kong, Turkey, Macau. We have problems with all five. We believe Turkey and US should not be included in an Asia Pacific travel study. And China, Hong Kong, Macau are all ‘China’ - a fact endorsed by PATA adding the moniker ‘SAR’ (Special Administrative Region, of China) for HK&M. Thus many of these ‘visitors’ are actually domestic travellers.
-PATA might be unwilling to make a change that would probably upset all three destinations – likely to ‘lose’ millions of visitors (50mn total?). Also, China not only likes to come top in any ranking, but dislikes even more being down-rated.
-PATA gives no support (including response to questions) to non-member subscription publications such as ours, and so we are unable to clarify what may be misleading.
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

New IATA 2020 forecasts
23 April 2020
IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) forecasts for 2020:
-Revenue loss by Europe’s airlines in 2020 -US$89bn, RPKs -55%. (March 24 forecasts, US$76bn, -46%.)
-Current 90% fall in air traffic puts 6.7mn jobs at risk (JAR), and a GDP impact of -US$452bn in Europe.
  Forecasts for top-5 biggest-fall markets:
  -France. Forecast -80mn fewer seats sold, -US$14.3bn revenue loss, 392.5k JAR, -US$35.2bn contribution to France’s GDP.
  -Germany. -103mn -US$17.9bn 483.6k -US$34bn.
  -Italy. -83mn -US$11.5bn 310.4k -US$21.1bn. 
  -Spain. -114mn -US$15.5bn 901.3k -US$59.4bn.
  -UK. -140mn -US$26.1bn 661.2k -US$50.3bn.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTO’s 2020 visitor/spend forecasts
31 March 2020
WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO, a loose lobby group for the travel business) forecasts for 2020:
-Visitor arrivals will fall 20-30%. Our database shows a 2019 total of 1.46bn +3.8%, which would mean 1.02-1.17bn arrivals, a 29-44mn fall.
-Visitor spend minus US$300-450bn -33%. Our database shows a 2018 (2019 not available) total of US$1462bn +5.7%; 2019 would probably have been US$1560bn. WTO’s forecast would put the 2020 total at US$1110-1260bn, a 19-28% fall.
-In 2009, the year following the worldwide financial fall, visitor arrivals fell -4%. In 2003, the year of the SARS coronavirus outbreak mainly contained in Asia, arrivals fell -0.4%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Our Air Asia 2019 counts
23 March 2020
The Air Asia group (AAG) sold 92.1mn +12.5% seats in 2019.
  These are our counts on AAG-released data. AAG does not provide all this data (for instance, releasing growth percentage only, not totals, on some measures), and does not add all AAG airlines. Air Asia X, for instance, is counted separately. Our total includes all.)
  Other findings:
-That growth compares with +15.9% in 2018, +13.0% 2017.
-The primary Malaysia division (excluding AAX) still accounts for a large share - 38% 2019, 39% 2018, 41% 2017.
-Of the two newest divisions, India seat sales were just short of 10mn +35.6%, and Japan just short of 500k +85.3%.
-Japan’s seat factor too low, at 79%; should be closer to 85%.
-AAX seat factor seriously low, at 81%. We believe it should be in the high-80s.
-The Thailand division, once a star performer seemingly on track to catch Malaysia, now slipping. Growth only +2.7% in 2019. Share 24%, 26% in 2018, 28% 2017.
-Indonesia, after some bad years earlier in the decade, grew +37.9%. But its total, 8.0mn, is not much better than the 7.9mn it counted in 2013.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

SELECTED ENTRIES - MOSTLY SUPERCEDED TRAVEL COUNTS, AND FORECASTS OUTDATED DUE TO COVID-19 - DELETED STARTING HERE

 

IATA on the Covid coronavirus
6 March 2020
IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports:
-2020 drop in passenger revenue US$63-113bn. That’s $63bn if Covid is contained in current markets with over 100 cases by 2 March; $113bn if a broader spread of Covid.
-Earlier analysis (on 20 February) put lost revenues at US$29.3bn - which assumed Covid would be largely confined to markets associated with China.
-Airline share prices have fallen 25% since the outbreak began, 21pts more than the fall at a similar point in the SARS coronavirus in 2003.
  Our data is for a different period. Our data shows February airline share prices fell -12% for airlines in Asia Pacific (excluding China), -27% Europe, -23% US. Conversely, all categories of travel stocks (including airlines) in China grew - by +10%, and for all China-based travel stocks (wherever quoted) +5%.
-Forecast market falls, annual: Italy -24%, China -23%, Iran -16%, Korea -14%, Japan -12%, France -10%, Germany -10%, Singapore -10%.
-Forecast market falls, annual: Asia (excluding China, Japan, Korea, Singapore) -11%, Europe (excluding France, Germany, Italy) -7%, Middle East (excluding Iran) -7%.
-Of missed US$63bn revenue, China would account for US$22bn. Markets associated with Asia (including China) would account for US$47bn. We do not know why the totals add up, but we believe perfect precision is not necessary in this case.
-Extensive Spread - markets that at 2 March had at least 10 confirmed Covid cases. The US$113bn missed revenue would be on a financial scale equivalent to losses in the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
-Forecast market impact if extensive spread of Covid:
   -Australia, China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam: seat sales -23%; passenger revenues -US$49.7bn.
   -Rest of Asia Pacific: -9% -$7.6bn.
   -Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, UK: -24% -$37.3bn.
   -Rest of Europe: -9% -$6.6bn.
   -Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, UAE: -23% -$4.9bn.
   -Rest of Middle East: -9% -$2.3bn.
   -Canada, US: -10% -$21.1bn.
-Positive. Oil prices have fallen -US$13/barrel since start-2020. This could cut US$28bn from the airlines’ fuel bill this year.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.


Cote d’Azur in 2019
28 February 2020
CRT* reports 2019 visitor results for France’s Cote d’Azur* (CDA). Much categorisation is different from what CRT reported for 2018; when relevant, we have added information on 2018 from our database.
  Details (any rounding by CRT):
-CRT did not report number of stays (= visitors) in 2019, but reported 11mn in 2018.
-Growth of domestic stays in some categories (see below) compensated for the fall in foreign.
-Hotel stays 4.5mn +2.4% - ‘stable’ Jan-Sep, grew +9% Oct-Dec.
-Hotel nights (not specified if guest- or room-nights) 10mn +1.4%. Occupancy 63% +1pt. CRT also reported 63% +1pt in 2018; its rounding might have caused this apparent discrepancy.
-3-star hotel nights +5% (number not given); occupancy 64% +2pts. 4/5-star hotel nights (number, growth, not given); occupancy, 65% +0.5pt.
-Hotel nights by France nationals +5%, foreigners 'almost unchanged'. (Hoteliers register nationality and residence, but report the less-important nationality count - as does CRT.)
-Accommodation nights in mountain locations were +4% Oct-Dec. Other categories not given.
-Number of foreigners 58% -2pts. We are not clear how this figure (presumably hotel occupancy, but possibly market share), is measured, nor whether it is important marketing information.
-Private accommodation 1.2mn stays; growth not given.
-Holiday resorts 0.6mn -5% stays.
-Of foreign markets, most were ‘stable’ or ‘changed marginally’. Specified: Japan +20%, Russia +9%, Middle East -26%. In 2019, CRT provided no analysis on China - the world’s largest travel market.
-Main foreign markets, reason for order not given: Italy +3%, UK/Ireland (CRT still combines these, even more anachronistic as the UK leaves the European Union and Ireland stays in) -3%, Germany ‘stable’, US +1%.
-Top-5 foreign markets for all types of accommodation, in order - Italy, UK/Ireland, US, Germany, Scandinavia (CRT sometimes wrongly includes Finland in ‘Scandinavia’; specifics not given here).
-Visitor spend (including accommodation, meals, shopping, excursions) down (figure not given). Share of visitors who spend more than US$83 (€75) daily was below 50% (figure not given).
-In 2018, CRT gave hotel rates (via the MKG consultancy), but these were for all France, not CDA. Growth was +3% in 'average price’ (we believe this is ‘average room rate’).
-In 2018, the visitor business was 15% of the region's GDP. Change not given, nor share in 2019.
-90% of visitors were ‘very satisfied’ with their stay in 2019. Those who were not satisfied fell by 50%. Data to put these in context not given.
-Nice airport (which the CRT reports as though it is the only airport for CDA, although there are 10 smaller ones handling commercial flights) counted 14.5mn +4.6% passengers.
-Two markets have priority for CRT promotional activity this year - Russia, US (despite weak direct air links).
*Notes:
-Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France - a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is that - brand identity.
-CRT (Comite Regional de Tourisme Cote d’Azur), the regional visitor office for the Cote d’Azur.
-At press time, CRT had not answered our request for clarifications.
 
Cirium and STR on Covid and SARS
24 February 2020
[] Cirium* reports on Covid affect:
-200,000 flights cancelled or removed from schedules to, from and within China.
-January 23 to February 18 99,254 scheduled flights, 89% domestic, cancelled.
-January 23-28, 9807 scheduled flights, 100% domestic, cancelled.
-For the first eight weeks of the year, Cirium reports worldwide capacity fell -0.9%. Weeks 8-10 showed a -10% fall, of which China’s airlines cancelled 60% of their flights.
-Most-affected airlines over January 23 to February 18: Lucky Air, with 51.2% of flights cancelled out of 4857 scheduled; China Southern, 53.8% of 44,274; Xiamen, 56.2% of 14,495.
-Most-affected airports: Wuhan, with 94% of flights cancelled (meaning 3443 flights). Percentage not given for others - Urumqi 4506 flights cancelled; Guiyang 4321; Changsha 4757; Hangzhou 6084.
*Notes: Cirium is a UK-based data and analysis company owned by Relx (sic).
[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on the SARS coronavirus in China in 2003:
-Lowest occupancy was May, 18%, with average room rate at US$73.58 (at today’s US$1 to Y7.04).
-August 67% US$78.41.
-Beijing May occupancy 10%, July 52%, August 65%, September 72%. 
-Guangdong (province) July 56%. Other months not given.
-Hong Kong July 60%, August 75%.
-Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai July 60%.

ICCA and IATA on the Covid coronavirus
20 February 2020
[] ICCA* reports:
-1065 meetings this year in Asia Pacific in its system.
-44 meetings affected by Covid, a 4.1% share.
-34 postponed, five cancelled, five relocated.
-Outside Asia Pacific, two meetings in Europe and one in Africa are postponed.
[] IATA* reports:
-RPKs for Asia Pacific airlines -13% for all-2020. Original forecast was +4.8%, so net impact will be -8.2%.
-Revenue loss -US$27.8bn, of which -US$12.8bn in China’s domestic market.
-Airlines outside Asia Pacific forecast to lose -US$1.5bn, bringing total worldwide revenue loss to -US$29.3bn, -5% lower passenger revenues compared to what IATA forecast end-2019, meaning -4.7% fewer RPKs.
-In December, IATA forecast +4.1% worldwide RPK growth, so this loss would result in a -0.6% worldwide fall for 2020.
-In 2003, the SARS coronavirus caused a -5.1% fall in RPKs of Asia Pacific airlines. 
*Notes:
-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.
-International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body.

ATF; Asean Tourism Forum; Brunei blocks Asean
20 January 2020
This time of the year, we usually report on travel product and travel marketing developments in the 10 Asean* destinations.
  This year, the Brunei host-committee for the Asean Travel Forum this month in Brunei, blocked attendance by Travel Business Analyst.
  Our first reaction was disappointment, then umbrage. Then on reflection, perhaps this is a better way. We espouse liberalism in the travel business, so that should be applied to coverage of travel industry events.
  But there are other factors, most important is that Brunei should not decide for Asean.
  Organisers need to think the reason for media attendance in the first place – to encourage editorial coverage of travel-related developments in the 10 destinations, not just the host destination.
  As it is, we will wait until ITB in Berlin in March to get the information we usually collect at ATF. But, because of ITBB logistics, we will probably not cover some smaller destinations that are also less important to Asean – say Brunei, Laos, Myanmar.
  There needs to be a change in rules for host destinations.
  Asean should give host committees their 'must' list of media (and probably of other hosted sectors as well, such as buyers). This can be companies as well as individuals. For instance, TTG Asia could be on the 'must' list as could, say, some named media people.
  If a person or company is on the host destination’s 'banned' list, then the host committee would have to transmit its reasons for the 'no', and Asean could decide whether to accept those reasons or not.
   Incredibly, Brunei's host committee does not have to transmit to anyone why we were delisted. So it could have been one person on the committee who said no, or other reasons. But without knowing those reasons, there is little we could do to change the decision.
  As a result, Brunei - representing about 5% of Asean's travel business - has prevented us from reporting on the 95%. Worse, no one in Asean cares whether this is a good or bad situation.
  We are prompted to write this because of our own experience, but the reasons are professional. For sure this has happened to other people in other destinations.
  Hosting an Asean event is a privilege, and a service to Asean. But Brunei appears to have ignored both those factors.
*Notes:
-Asean = Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean writes ‘Southeast’, even though that should make the abbreviation ASAN). Asean members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
-We did not seek comments from Asean for this report. Unfortunately, our experience is no acknowledgement, and never have we received a comment. We believe that despite the economic importance of the travel business to many of the 10 destinations, matters of state, not economics, get most attention.

Americas outbound 2019
16 January 2020
Excerpts from II* findings on outbound travel from Latin America (LAm) and North America (NAm) over Jan-Aug.
  See Notes below, which include important caveats and qualifications.
-LAm -3% (II rounded). Number not given. Negatively affected by ‘high-volume’ Mexico (total not given, but our database shows almost 20mn arrivals in the US alone), -5%.
-NAm growth +4.5%. Number not given. Boosted by travel from the US (II uses the term ‘US-Americans’), +6%.
-All Americas growth +3.5%.
-Travel to Europe +7% (from the Americas). Travel to Spain +11%, Italy +10%. These two destinations are believed to have been listed because they were the fastest-growing; they are not the largest.
-Outbound travel within the Americas grew +3%. Trips to Asia also +3%.
-‘Holidays’ grew +5%; now 60% share. Business travel fall -1%; share not givenII do not make clear if it records other categories, such as VFR; no other categories are shown.
-The following categories are believed to be sub-categories under ‘holidays’ as above. City Breaks +10%, ‘Holidays in the Country’ +9%, Cruises +6%, ‘Round Trips’ +5%, ‘Sun & Beach’ -1%. 
-IPKI forecasts LAm outbound to grow +1% this year, NAm outbound +3%. Base (all 2019 or Jan-Aug) not clarified.
*Notes:
-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.
-A common fault with II reports concerns Mexico. II do not seem to be aware that Mexico is part of North America. They often include it in Latin America (correct, although LAm is not a geographical term and which II do not clearly define), but then comment separately on North America. Does II’s NAm include or exclude Mexico?
  We believe II exclude Mexico from North America, because they include it in LAm. (And sometimes in South America, which is wrong.)
-For ‘holiday travel’, we believe II mean non-business travel, sometimes known as ‘leisure travel’.
-In 2019, II introduced ‘roundtrips’ as a category in some reports. There has been no further definition although the term makes little sense, as presumably around 95% of trips are roundtrips.
-Also added are ‘Holidays in the Country’ (not clear if this is same as a previously-used category, ‘Countryside’, but definitions not known.
-In some reports, II have had a category ‘tour [sometimes ‘touring’] holidays’ (II have also never defined this, and as it is open to interpretation, we wonder how those questioned defined it).
-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

WTTC on medical tourism
19 November 2019
Excerpts from a WTTC* report on medical tourism:
[] US largest market for inbound and outbound spend.
[] US outbound spend, share 20%. US nationals spent US$2.3bn in 2017. Not clear how WTTC can separate-out non-citizens living in the US, and also add US nationals living in other countries.
[] Kuwait 2nd largest outbound spend US$1.5bn in 2015. Note 1, that year is different from US dates, 2, not specified whether Kuwait nationals only, or whether including the large number of foreigners living in Kuwait.
[] Nigeria 3rd largest outbound spend US$783mn in 2017, a 13.5% share of total outbound spend. Not the same category as for the US, which is share of total medical spend.
 [] 'Leading' (no other definition) emerging destinations for spend - Turkey, Thailand, Jordan, Costa Rica, Mexico. Reason for order not given.
[] Spend on international medical tourism US$11bn in 2017, up +358% since 2000. We calculate that as +9.4% AAGR (annual average growth rate).
[] Medical-spend share 1.2% of total visitor spend in 2017; 0.6% in 2000.
[] WTTC names Europe markets in the top-10 - Netherlands, France, Belgium, Austria, Germany. Again, reason for order not known. Spend in each of the five is put at US$300-678mn.
[] Inbound US spend US$4bn in 2017, a 36% share of medical tourism spend.
[] Following the US, largest inbound spend France US$800mn, Turkey US$763mn.
[] 'Emerging economies' for medical tourism noted were Thailand US$589 million 1.0% share of inbound visitor spend, Costa Rica US$451mn 12.1%, Mexico US$315mn 1.5%.
[] Inbound spend; five are European countries, with Belgium, the UK and Hungary joining France and Turkey, spending US$417-636mn.
*Notes: WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business.

Europe's domestic travel
26 September 2019
Eurostat (ES) has released domestic-travel data* for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from each market, they are not always comparable one to the other.
  We compare 2018 data with our database for 2017 to calculate progress.
  Unfortunately, the domestic market that is probably the EU's 4th biggest, the UK (after France, Germany, Spain), has been uncooperative with ES - even before its decision to leave the EU. Latest data for the UK is from 2013.
  Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):
-ES shows that France’s total fell -13%. We assume this is wrong, and that there has been a change in definitions.
-Because of that reported fall in France, there is a fall in the total markets already filed of -1.9%. Germany is a big enough market that its results will likely turn that into a small growth. We calculate Germany's growth in 2018 was +4-5%.
-Exclude France, and the total for the 18 grew +5.3%.
-Largest market reported so far is France; that reported -13.2% represents 26mn fewer travellers.
-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 50mn): Italy grew +20%. Spain, the EU’s 3rd-largest, grew only +1%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, ES had not answered our request for clarifications.

Europe's outbound travel
25 September 2019
Eurostat (ES) has released outbound-travel data* for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from the market, they are not always comparable one to the other. And they do not always identify special cases - such as heavy work related border crossings.
  To date, 19 of the 31 markets have reported their 2018 data to ES. We calculate that this represents 45% of the total. The big market missing is Germany, which alone has an 30% share of the total. Germany should report within the next month.
  Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):
-Growth on those markets already filed is +5.8%. Germany is a big enough market that its results could change that total growth. We calculate Germany's growth in 2018 was +0-2%.
-Largest market reported so far is France; its -7.4% represents 2mn fewer travellers.
-Of the others, falls were recorded only for France and Norway -0.9%.
-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 10mn): Italy grew +26%, Netherlands with 20.9mn is on track to become larger than France, 26.3mn, in 2020. Spain grew +15%.
-Among medium markets (5-10mn): Czech R +9%.
-Among smaller markets (under 5mn): Estonia +61.7%, Bulgaria +23.9%.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Russia outbound
26 July 2019
Some findings on the Russia outbound market, by RMAA (Russian Marketing and Advertising Agency):
[] 69% of respondents buy air tickets online. Almost as widespread as the US, where it is 77%.
[] If a traveller watches a video about their trip before travelling, 65% watch YouTube, 24% an airline video, 20% Facebook, 12% OTA, and then others.
[] Among those who flew domestically, 43% did not use offline at all, 28% used offline and online.
[] Digital travellers made up their mind faster: 31% of them decided to buy a ticket within several hours.
[] 60% use PC or laptop, 8% smartphones.
[] 53% travel on vacation in couples, 28% travel alone, 8% in a group.
[] 51% decide on a trip within several days of travel (not enumerated, NE). 15% book tickets for travel after a few hours (NE) after booking a flight. 8% buy tickets several months (NE) before a departure.
[] For 70%, the cost of the ticket is a priority.
[] 30% are members of loyalty programs.
[] 40% go on vacation in Europe, 31% domestic.
[] 38% take a 2-week vacation, 36% one week.
[] 33% of travellers change their mind on which airline during the booking process, 56% book tickets of the company that they considered from the beginning, 39% choose different offers at the end of the process.
[] 32% buy tickets of only one airline.
[] 72% rely on their experience, 2% on advertising, 9% word-of-mouth, 10% online search.
[] Of those that are loyalty program members, 45% always fly one airline, 12% would look only at offers from one airline, 43% considered offers from other airlines but eventually booked the original one.
[] For those who are not members of a loyalty program, the shares were 25% 30% 44%.

More meetings counts
19 June 2019
ICCA* has issued more data on its report for 2018. We include some baseline data here, but brief because ICCA’s data is based on single-year counts.
  Our main analysis is based on multi-year results. We are motivated by those working in the MICE segment of the travel business – who tell us that single-year figures can be misleading. As a result, we calculate average-annual totals based on 5-year periods - to balance out distortions caused by unusually-big or -small events in one year.
  Surprisingly, the industry itself still works on annual figures! Even more surprising is that in 2013 ICCA said it was following our lead and tracking results in 5-year averages. Despite that, all its analysis and observations continues to be based on single-year figures!
  Our report on this topic is due to be included in the August issue of our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. This contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

  Some excerpts from ICCA’s single-year data:
-Barcelona counted most participants, although, as reported earlier, Paris counted most meetings. No3 in participants is Vienna, then Munich, Berlin. This highlights the problem with single-year counts; on a 5-year count, Munich would not only be below Berlin, but about No8 - see WYSK. Munich is No35 in meeting numbers. Two big medical conferences - 32,858 and 27,700 participants - made 2018 an exceptional year.
-The US remains in the top country, Spain overtakes Germany to become No2, then France, Canada.
-Main topics are Medical Science (share 16.9%), Technology (14.2%), Science (13.5%).
-Spend on international meetings was US$12.4bn (we calculate +3.8% from ICCA-rounded €11bn and +4%).
*Notes:
-ICCA’s counts are meetings of associations (and follow precise definitions), and thus are just one segment of the big MICE business. We have not seen estimates, but we would be surprised if ICCA’s segment was more than 20% of the total. Why do these counts attract so much interest? (Possibly, we answer ourselves, because no other worldwide trade body tracks the whole MICE business.)
-Until 2009, ICCA gave us additional information for our analysis, but has refused this since. Full data is reserved for ICCA members; a policy with which we agree, even if it causes us some difficulty. As a result, however, our coverage is now limited to meetings numbers, rather than adding commentary on attendance numbers as well.
-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.

ITB Berlin falling
13 March 2019
Key measures for last week’s ITB Berlin (ITBB) travel trade exhibition appear to show static or falling results.
  However, organisers Messe Berlin (MB) do not always report the same category of data every year, and some are rounded over a few years - 60,000 public visitors every year 2015 to 2018, and in some years before that.
  And the number of measures is falling. MB has published as many as 17 separate measures on ITBB; for 2019 it published five.
  But potentially of more concern for MB is an apparent denial that not all is going well. The following are some of MB’s public statements on ITBB 2019:
-‘Robust and resilient.
-‘International demand remains stable.
-‘Increase in trade visitors.
-‘Uninterrupted growth at a high level’.
  Apart from the trade-visitor count, we cannot see how MB can create such positive comment. The following are our calculations on MB data for this year, compared with our database for 2018 results:
-Zero growth in exhibitors - 10,000.
-Fall, -2.7%, in countries represented - 181.
-Fall, -5.9%, in total visitors - 160k.
-Growth, +3.2%, in trade visitors - 114k.
-Great fall, -22.5%, in public visitors - 45k.
  Note, however, that MB has not published this 45k (we calculated it), and it may be related to MB’s reporting of imprecise data in earlier years.
  In addition, this year there was a separate public travel show in Berlin at the same time - Berlin Travel Festival, March 8-10, Fri-Sun - although obviously BTF did not have the same volume of ITBB.
  Surprisingly, BTF was partly funded (‘supported’, which has no clear definition) by MB, although it certainly competes with the two public days of ITBB, Saturday and Sunday. We presume there will eventually be an adjustment - will ITBB be just three trade days, and the new show will take over from the last two days of ITBB, on the weekend?

Asean travel study
7 February 2019
Key findings from our calculation of visitor forecast to arrive in the 10 Asean destinations* this year. Although these are based on forecasts by the DMOs, the figures are substantially different from official Asean figures.
  We are unable to determine the reasons for this; Asean does not generally reply to queries and/or provide details of its broad positive presentations. Worse, if falls are forecast, the relevant figures are simply omitted.
  In travel, Asean is a ‘good news’ operation, and professional reporting takes second position. We are unqualified to comment on Asean’s main activities, built around politics and economics.
  We find it impossible to reconcile Asean reported data with our compilation of data from DMOs, partly because Asean issues no qualifications. We thus report both data, for better reader interpretation.
-Asean reports Asean+India 2018 visitor arrivals at 139.5mn +7.4%. Based on our estimates for 2018 (full figures are not yet available), we count 143.3mn +6.8% (Asean 132.7mn +6.9%, India 10.6mn +5.0%).
-Asean reports Asean+China+Japan+Korea 2018 visitor arrivals at 191.5mn - growth not reported. Our estimates show a giant difference - 330.1mn +6.2%. The problem is almost-certainly data on China visitors, and whether arrivals from Hong Kong and Macau are included. They are included in China’s official figures, and we have included them. Asean appears to exclude them because that would take about 100mn off our total - putting ours closer to Asean’s count. Asean provides no qualifications.
  The following is our calculation of the principal figures. We believe these are a better report on market realities than Asean’s data:
-Based on official statements by the 10 Asean DMOs forecast, there will be 150.1mn +13.1% visitors this year in their 10 destinations. However, this is unlikely to be achieved; 2018 growth was only an estimated +6.9% to 132.7mn, and 2017 +8.3% to 124.1mn.
-Growing Singapore’s total (by 40%) to better match over-counting by Malaysia and Thailand to balance their over-counting (by including land arrivals; see next) would result in an Asean total of 139.9mn +6.7% in 2018, with their forecast to grow to 157.5mn +12.6% this year.
-Reducing the totals for Malaysia (by 50%) and Thailand (by 10%), Asean’s total would be 116.1mn +7.9% in 2018, with their forecast to grow to 132.8mn +14.3% this year.
  We believe these figures are closest to reality. These also result in faster average annual growth - +8.0% over 2015, +9.0% over 2010. But that cumulative forecast for 2019 still looks too high, based on past performance - +14.3%.
*A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Trump Slump Bumped
17 September 2018
-there have been extraordinary changes in US visitor counts that turn a fall into growth.
The US has produced a new set of figures on visitor arrivals in the US. It reverses the Trump Slump into a Bump. But the new counts do not correct what may have been a fault; they deliberately miscategorise figures, which produces a Trump Bump.
  We are shocked, but we have seen no other reports that have analysed the changes.
  Here is the story:
  Earlier this year, many reports on visitor arrivals in the US were reporting a ‘Trump Slump’ - a fall in visitors prompted by the negative actions and words of the newish US president, Donald Trump. When he was not banning or trying to ban certain types or citizens from visiting the US, his words were unfriendly.
  Not only did his words ascertain that the US was on its way to becoming great again, but, almost concomitantly, non-Americans (=foreigners) were not so good, at best.
  In those circumstances, there should have been little surprise that the number of visitors would fall. Even if the banned nationals were tiny suppliers of visitors to the US (we guess some country-markets in the hundreds, and maybe 10,000 over a year), many others would, sensibly, have reconsidered a visit to the US.
  Would a France national, moslem, born in France of parents from Morocco, continue to assume a visit to the US would be trouble free?
  But a fall in visitors, of course, even if a likely outcome of specific actions, was not welcomed by the US administration. Its discourse was, and is, that everything is better for everyone in the US, and possibly better than since the beginning of time.
  This is not to say that we accuse the US government of helping the US administration to falsify facts. But its actions nevertheless raise suspicions.
  Last April, the US government said it was checking visitor-arrival counts because some visitors may have been miscategorised.
  The country’s DMO (NTTO, National Travel and Tourism Office) says some arrivals were incorrectly reported as showing US as the country of residence. The passport country for many (NTTO says ‘a large number’, but provides no further definition to enable others to define it thus) of the affected records was Brazil, China, India.
  This month, NTTO announced that the problem has now been fixed.
  But, we declare, it has not been corrected.
  The NTTO says any visitor-arrival that listed the US as the country of residence has now been changed to show the passport country as the country of residence. This is actually changing what may have been a mistake (obviously most arrivals with India passports were/are not residents of the US, even if some were recorded as US residents) to a clear mistake (assuming all those non-US-citizen visitor-arrivals were/are not resident in the US).
  This exercise has reversed the Trump Slump into a Trump Bump.
  In general terms, based on our notes above about the unwelcome sentiment in Trump’s US for ‘foreigners’, the visitor-arrival count now seems wrong. That said, we accept that few figures ‘seem’ right all the time; there are always surprises.
  The NTTO says the change (it says ‘corrective’ but as we have noted, these are not corrections, this is just re-categorisation) means the mistake (if that is what it was) in 2017 affected 3.7mn visitors in 2017 - almost a full Trump Year - yet only 540,000 visitors in non-Trump 2016.
  The other broad figures (more, with an accompanying table, in a WYSK report, what-you-should-know, from Travel Business Analyst):
-The new figures show there were 38.9mn +2.0% overseas visitors in 2017. The old figures were 35.2mn -6.2%.
-For total visitors (ie including Canada, Mexico), new 76.9mn +0.7%, old 73.3mn -3.1%.
-There were no changes for visitors from Canada, Mexico in 2017, but changes in 2016 and 2015. Although the changes in those earlier years were small, why were those 2017 figures ‘corrected’ before the ‘mistake’ in the categorisation was discovered? Even though the Canada and Mexico visitor-arrival counts are so big (almost 40mn in 2017), no visitor was mis-categorised?
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

We Were Right; Singapore Airlines Group
18 May 2018
With the news that Silk Air is being merged into Singapore Airlines, the businessplan we outlined for SAG (Singapore Airlines Group) is almost complete.
  We synopsised our points in a November 2013 report following a meeting with a senior SAG executive. Some of these points we had noted before, and of course later. The three elements were:
1. Scoot should not have been established. SAG’s first NFA* Tiger should have been expanded instead. SAG did not own a majority in Tiger at that time, and so we suggested SAG should simply buy a bigger share.
  Three years later this all started to happen. SAG increased its shareholding in Tiger. Then the two airlines Scoot and Tiger were put under a single management control, then Tiger was merged into Scoot.
  Essentially then, this is what we suggested – just one (NFA) airline.
2. Similarly there has been no need (for the past 15 years at least) to have two FSAs*. The inanity of this was illustrated in that there were some routes on which both SIA and Silk were flying. Duh!
  There are nuances to our argument, of course, which make this not quite so blatantly stupid, but it was still was poor business management.
  Now, following this announcement, what we proposed is happening – just one (FSA) airline.
3. However, there was an element in our proposed businessplan for SAG that has not been implemented, and which in some ways makes the SIA/Silk merger the wrong move.
  We proposed that Silk become SAG’s LCA*. As an LCA, Silk’s routes could be new ones for SAG – where it is usually better to start with a lower-cost operation until the financial viability for SIA to operate such a route is clearer. Or a Silk LCA could operate additional frequencies on routes operated by SIA – again, which might not be profitable for SIA to expand.
  Perhaps SAG management believes Scoot will fill that market need – develop new routes. But as management knows, and says, Scoot serves a different market segment.
  Under this new arrangement for SIA/Silk, the full-service market segment is not properly served (because any extra demand from the FSA market will be fulfilled by non-SAG FSAs). That, or higher-costs SIA will add flights to fulfil this extra demand, and lose money, at least initially.
  Also, that would mean SAG’s market share would steadily fall – or at least not grow at the rate it could.
  Will SAG management understand this?
  The chances do not look good – back in 2013 they laughed (literally, but at the proposal, not the deliverer) at our three proposals – two of which they have now carried out.
*Notes: Our airline-type definitions:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs - cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for example), fewer fare types, may have first and business cabins as well as economy, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. If relevant, usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: shorthaul point-to-point routes; market freedom in terms of fares, routes; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; extremely-low fares when bought at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no (free) service frills; single economy-class cabin; no (free) seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

Misleading WTTC reports
23 March 2018
WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has published a series of comprehensive reports* for selected markets – some measures comparable, some not.
  Unfortunately, the group is so careless in its presentations that the professional observer is sometimes left to guess what WTTC’s research shows. We believe its presentations are in contrast with the professionalism of its research.
  As a result, the following is our (abridged) list of WTTC’s findings, with comments where necessary.
  (Note: WTTC mainly uses the awkward term ‘travel and tourism’*, which we change to the more-practical ‘travel business’*, abbreviated here to TB. Data for 2017, unless noted otherwise.)
[] World.
-TB turnover +4.6%. Visitor spend +4.3%. GDP growth a WTTC-rounded +3%.
[] North Africa.
-TB turnover (overall GDP, TB’s share of GDP): +22.6%; Egypt US$21.1bn +72.9% (+4.1%, 11.0%); Tunisia US$5.7bn +7.6% (WTTC-rounded +2%, 14.2%); Turkey US$98.4bn WTTC-rounded +17% (+7.0%, 11.6%). Note Turkey is part in Europe, part in Asia (Minor), which is sometimes a reason for including it in the Middle East. Including it in North Africa is incorrect.
-‘...well on track to return to pre-crisis levels’. Without a date, this is meaningless commentary; it was on that track the moment the TB stopped falling.
[] Australia.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$156bn/A$197.5bn +2.3% (+2.2%).
[] Canada.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$108bn/C$138.8bn +4.5% (a WTTC-rounded +3%). In a separate report, WTTC puts growth as +5.5%.
[] China.
-TB turnover +9.8%.
[] France.
-TB 50% faster than world average. Wrong? The same report showed that this was a comparison with the visitor business, not the overall TB.
-Visitors to France spent US$54.7bn (at US$1 to €0.81) +6.4%.
-TB turnover US$252.2bn, an 8.9% share.
[] Germany.
-TB turnover US$429.8bn +1.7%.
[] India.
-Forecast to overtake Germany as #3 by 2028.
[] Indonesia.
-TB turnover US$57bn/Rph787.1tn +6.4%; overall GDP +5.1%.
-Forecast +6.4% annual average growth rate 2018-27.
[] Italy.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$275.6bn +2.7%, a WTTC-rounded 13% share (+1.6%).
-Visitor spend US$48.9bn +6.5%.
[] Japan.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$350bn/¥37.1tn +3.4% (+1.6%).
-Forecasts 40mn visitors in 2020. Not clear if this is a WTTC forecast or a restatement of Japan’s government’s target.
[] Saudi Arabia.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$64bn/R240.9bn +4.6% (a WTTC-rounded +1%), a 9.4% share of GDP.
[] Spain.
-TB turnover a WTTC-rounded +7%.
[] UK.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$297bn/a-WTTC-rounded-£214bn +6.2% (+1.5%).
-Visitors +6.7%, outbound travellers +2.5% (+7.8% 2016, +9.9% 2015), domestic travellers +5.8%, spend by visitors to UK +7.9%, spend by domestic travellers +5.8%.
[] US.
-TB turnover (overall GDP): US$1.5tn +2.3% world’s largest (same, +2.3%).
*Notes:
-WTTC has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure will be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business.
  Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.
  WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers - just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.
-Most US$ figures are our conversions from WTTC figures.
-A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

WTTC Research Director Rochelle Turner responds:
The methodology that WTTC uses aligns to the UN a statistical Methodology for accounting for Travel & Tourism (TSA RMF: 2008).  
The definition of the sector from the TSA RMF:2008 is as follows: ‘the activity of persons travelling to and staying in places outside of their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not remunerated from within the place visited’. 
Our approach has been independently audited and is fully available for view on our website, www.wttc.org. All country regions are fully explained on the final pages within each country report. 

Easy v Ryan v Southwest v Norwegian v Air Asia
22 December 2017
On the occasion of the departure of Easyjet CEO, Carolyn McCall, and prompted by some comments by the airline on her performance over her seven years at the airline, we check the results at Easy and some other competing airlines. These indicate that Easy’s claims for McCall are not justified*.
  According to our database, Easy’s seat sales have shown a +7.0% average annual growth rate since she joined. That looks weak alongside some key competitors – +8.2% AAGR at arch-rival Ryanair, the world’s biggest NFA (no-frills-airline), +14.5% at (relative) newcomer Norwegian, although only +5.9% at US-based Southwest, overtaken two months ago as the world’s biggest NFA, and +15.9% at Air Asia, that region’s biggest NFA. Air Berlin, which has now shut down, was negative, -1.6%.
  The same pattern for Easy’s share price. At current prices, Easy’s share AAGR over end-2010 was +18.3%, Ryan +24.6%, Southwest +24.4%. Only two years for Norwegian, but -25.2%. Also negative for Air Asia, -2.0% over the seven years. Air Berlin was not a quoted airline.
  We calculate Easy’s seat sales have grown +49.7% since 2010, although Ryan has grown +60.6%, Norwegian +124.9%, Air Asia +109.3%, but Southwest +40.9%.
*A report on this topic in our People-in-Travel (PinT) monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Ryanair tops
8 December 2017
It happened in September and was confirmed in October. According to our counts, Ryanair has overtaken Southwest to become the world's biggest no-frills-airline.
  Seat sales Jan-Oct were 11.0mn on Ryan compared with 10.8mn on Southwest.

Asean@50; unhappy birthday?
23 January 2017
The reclusive Asean travel secretariat (ATS) has reiterated its 2017 visitor target for the 10 Asean destinations at 121mn. Yet the figures it has published indicate that it expects slower growth in this celebratory year than in the ‘normal’ year 2016.
  We’ll explain:
  The forecast is related to what is named ‘Asean@50’ (A50). This is a so-called (non-funded) promotional campaign this year to encourage greater visitation into the 10 Asean destinations – to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the formation of the Asean political association.
  We believe few travellers are motivated by political birthdays. In 2015, the visitor element of Singapore’s 50th-year independence/foundation celebrations was a flop. Arrivals growth that year was just 1%; something which no-one now mentions. Ironically, A50 was officially launched in Singapore, indicating that nothing has been learned from Singapore’s birthday failure.
  One year ago, ATS released data that would mean visitor totals for the 10 destinations in 2015 totalled 92.3mn. Since then, ATS has changed that total to 109mn and now to 108mn.
  We estimate that there was strong growth in visitors in 2016 – probably 8.5%, even though that was below the 12.8% forecast that we calculated after adding up DMO forecasts at the start of 2016.
  That +8.5% would put the 2016 Asean visitor total at 117mn – based on ATS’s restated 2015 total of 108mn. From there to the targetted 121mn this year would mean 3.2% growth this year. We have seen no commentary that this means, in effect, that ATS forecasts slower growth this A50 year than in 2016, a ‘normal’ year.
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis.

We Were Right!
11 November 2016
We have had a good couple-of-months - in vindication.
1. Frequently, since 2007, we have been saying that the Air Berlin businessmodel was wrong, suggesting simplification. In September 2016, the airline announced it was downsizing (about 40%), moving some of its leisure operations into a new company, and more, to change what it called its “complicated business model”. (There is still more to do, however.)
2. In 2015 we formalised our 7-year-old strategy for bigger airline groups. One section proposed expanding Hop, an Air France subsidiary, into a low-cost subsidiary to operate certain flights (short medium long) instead of AF and its associate KLM. In November 2016, the AF-KLM group said it planned to establish a low-cost subsidiary in 2017 to operate certain Asia and Atlantic flights instead of the two.
3. In April 2016 we said the reported plan by Alitalia to buy 49% of Air Malta would not happen. In October 2016, it was announced that the sale would not take place.
4. When Scoot was established in 2011 we said it should not have been, and Tiger expanded instead. This plan was dismissed by the owner of both, the Singapore Airlines group (SAG), end-2013. In November 2016, SAG said Tiger would operate under Scoot’s name starting 2017.
  For those interested in more:
-What full-service-airlines need to do to survive. See 
https://medium.com/@tbaoffice/airline-strategy-185fa3ef7d0c#.octgrysmf
-We’ve been reporting Air Berlin’s problems since 2006. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jJ
-AirFrance-KLM new subsidiary; we thought of it first. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jW
-Scoot = Tiger. We thought of it first. See http://wp.me/pTv9-k0
-How to save Air Malta and others. See http://wp.me/pTv9-jB 
-Alitalia to buy into Air Malta? See http://wp.me/pTv9-it
-Analysing Alitalia’s 2015 results. See http://wp.me/pTv9-in

Air Berlin surprise
5 October 2016
Why did it take so long to see the problems? We’ve been reporting them since 2006. PAGPFT. On http://wp.me/pTv9-jJ

Asean’s Faultlines.
13 June 2016
Asean’s Faultlines, by Murray Bailey
3500-word critique entitled Asean’s Faultlines – includes a section What To Do. On https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/aseans-faultlines-by-murray-bailey/

Shouting some shocks: Virgin, Fly Be, Wizz, Air Berlin.
20 May 2016
Virgin on trouble
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
  Figures we have seen on Virgin Atlantic (the airline does not publish them) indicate all is not going well. OK, they are bad.
  For all-year 2015 we have a 3% fall in seat sales to 5.8mn following a particularly-bad December - -14%.
  But this year has started worse. We have Q1 seat sales at -7%. The 1.1mn total that represents compares with 1.2mn sold in 2015, and the peak of 1.3mn in 2014 - which was a 4% growth on 2013.
  We are not saying VA is not long for this world. (That’s an improvement as we said they would collapse within two years after they were established - 30 years ago.)
  But will owners Branson and Delta clash? Branson was able to deal easily with his previous supporter, Singapore Airlines, but Delta may be harder to fool.
Fly Be, or not-to-be?
But if you are looking for doom in the UK, then look at Fly Be. True, its seat sales were +1% in Q1 (ie better than VA’s -7%), but its seat factor was a disastrous 66%. We reckon the airline needs at least 14pts more than that.
  We propose that FB management (that’s Fly Be, not Mr Zuckerberg) campaign strongly for Brexit. If the UK makes the wrong decision and quits the EU, FB can take over some of the many UK-EU routes that Ryanair will likely be forced to abandon.
Wizzing ahead
Ready for another? Wizz - Hungary-based but think East Europe - is on track to overtake (sorry, wiz past) Air Berlin in 2017.
  Poor Air Berlin. It is tumbling faster - -7% YTD, -8% latest month. And that change would follow on from the ignominy of being overtaken this Q1 by Nano-Norway’s Norwegian.

Analysing Alitalia’s 2015 results
6 May 2016
Alitalia’s heading: ‘On track for profitability by 2017; reports strong 2015 performance.’
Ours: ‘Alitalia revenue and traffic fall again; will it achieve its target for profits in 2017?’
2015 seemed to be another year of operational weakening at Alitalia. ‘Seemed’ because the company does not publish all the data every year.
  We normally look at seat sales, and when we look at finance, at revenue and operating profit (not net, which can be more easily manipulated). So:
-Alitalia’s peak year for seat sales (including Air One) seems to have been 2007, with 31.5mn.
-The company does not reveal growth in 2015 (and did not report 2014 data) – just the figure. That was 22.1mn, thus a shocking 29.9% fall against 2007 – an average annual 4.3% fall.
-Revenue. We have US$3.99bn (at US$1 to €0.90) for 2012 – no full-year since then. In 2015 US$3.68bn -7.8%, an average annual 2.7% fall.
-Operating profit. No data.
-From our file data, Alitalia’s revenue in 2012 calculates to US$165 per seat sold. In 2015 it was better, US$167, a 1.2% growth, so 0.4% average annual growth.
-Other. It provides other data, but without comparative information, most are essentially worthless. Such as US$262mn from ‘codeshare revenue’. Of course Alitalia indicates that this is good, but with no comparative or other data, how can we know? Its load factor (not further defined, but we have assumed RTK over ATK, not RPK over ASK) looks worryingly low, at 76.2%. We would have thought it needs at least 10-points higher. That said, it is actually an improvement on the latest data we have, for 2006, of 65.7%!

wow – ow – ouch – oh
9 March 2016
China’s airlines – wow
Although it was a Lunar New Year month (compared with non-LNY in 2015), growth in seat sales for China’s big-3 is impressive nevertheless.
  In January on international routes (by size), China Southern was +29%, Air China +43% (!), China Eastern +30%.
  (Numbers: 1.14mn 1.10mn 0.88mn.)
Macau - ow
We follow Macau’s RCT (Rolling Chip Turnover; can be considered as money spent on gambling).
  We have just seen the 2015 results for IKGH, a company operating certain high-rollers rooms in four casinos in Macau.
  Its RCT in 2015 fell an enormous 61%, and it is not getting much better – Q4 RCT was down 57% and Jan-Feb this year -44%. (Dollar amounts are not relevant in this report – but for those interested, the figures were US$6.4bn in 2015, and US$1.2bn in Q4.)
  If those results are an indicator for all-Macau, will Las Vegas take back its title as the world’s biggest gambling centre?
Malaysia Airlines – ouch
I estimate that Malaysia Airlines’ international seat sales fell even further in 2015, possibly to under 10mn. Was it only two years earlier in 2013 that its count soared passed that 10mn with 30% growth?
  Unsurprisingly, traffic fell in 2014 after it lost two aircraft, but it is surprising that monthly traffic is still falling.
  We thought there would be a Dead Cat Bounce for the last three months of 2015. Not only did that not happen, by a long way, but also the fall seems to have been greater – down around 25% in Q4.
  Of course, these falls are not entirely the result of those two 2014 tragedies. There is still hard competition from the Air Asia group (although AA is not doing as well as it was). And Malaysia’s current governmental turmoil and currency fall may be slowing traffic in and out of the country – possibly more business- than leisure-travel.
  Also, we think MA should have changed its name last year (it did, but from its formal abbreviation MAS to MAB; most did not notice). At least to Air Malaysia.
  Those aforementioned political spats may be reducing the pressure on MA to explain and reverse its continued fall. But expect political demands for a return to better times to happen soon – however unrealistic. In the next 4-6 months?
Virgin Australia – oh
It was not supposed to be like this.
  When Virgin Australia launched, it started fortuitously - its big would-be rival, Ansett, shut down the following year, in 2001. It continued to go well until, encouraged by an adoring crowd, it started international flights. Some are still there, but international expansion was not as easy as it seemed to think.
  Then Qantas launched Jetstar in Australia, and VA felt the competition heat more warmly. Worse, Singapore Airlines (which actually got burned badly in the Ansett collapse – but let’s not bring that up again) cheekily started a Tiger Air division in Australia.
  That went sort-of reasonably, until the authorities shut it down temporarily in 2011 for safety reasons. 18 months later Singapore Airlines – which left the impression it did not know what it was doing with Tiger, in Australia and Asia – sold the Australia company to VA.
  VA smugly said it was pleased to get back into the no-frills-airline business. Smug because its original businessplan was for a no-frills-airline (even though that did not fit the overall Virgin strategy). When Ansett collapsed, Virgin steadily ditched the NFA model.
  So here we are with 2015 results – our counts from Virgin data, because it has a different financial year.
  Seat sales down for Virgin international and down for Virgin domestic Australia. Ironically, only Tiger grew, and that because it can be considered a newish airline that had lost its direction, and is now under more-determined direction.
  VA’s total count is down. If this continues, watch for another change in direction soon – from CEO change to change in strategy on domestic, international and Tiger. Will Tiger’s name go?
  (Numbers: domestic -3%, international -2%, Tiger +9%; overall -1%.)

Euromonitor Puerilities
7 December 2015
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.
Research company Euromonitor (EM) has listed what it calls “top emerging travel trends” (a misnomer) in the WTM Global Trends Report. We have criticised some EM reports and statements before, including its now-14-years of work for the GTR. But this latest list of blathers we find an insult to travel industry professionals in that most have little or no meaning:
  EM’s TETTs are:
The new American dream: work less, play hard.
“A growing number of American companies offer unlimited vacation time to create a happier, loyal and motivated staff, which will have an effect on travel bookings.”
We know of no company (in the US or anywhere) that pays staff and allows them not to do any work. But we do accept that such employees would likely spend some of their money and great amount of free time on travel.
Smart technology drives travel to UK’s secondary cities.
“Digitalisation and hi-tech solutions are redefining the tourist offerings of UK urban centres to boost travel outside of London, currently the jewel in the crown of UK tourism.”
Smart technology is also driving travel to London, and everywhere. But what, we wonder, does ‘digitalisation and hi-tech’ do, in this case, for such travel that it does not do for others?
‘Hipster Holidays’ revolutionise European city break.
“Young and hip travellers’ interest in alternative city areas opens new business opportunities and helps diversifying urban attractions in European cities struggling with excessive tourism.”
We tried to understand this, but failed. And we wonder which cities are struggling, and what, indeed, is ‘excessive tourism’.
Travel 3.0: the advent of smart travel.
“Smart technology is transforming the tourism industry with personalised services to create enjoyable experiences suited to a traveller’s individual preferences.”
Well, yes, but is this an ‘emerging trend’? We would think personalisation has been around for at least five if not 10 years. And in some cases, much longer; such as Thomas Cooks’ trips from the UK to the French Riviera in the 1850s.
Iran: the next travel hotspot.
“The recent sanction lift sparked a scramble to open Iran to international visitors, attracted by its ancient Persian history, 17 World Heritage Sites, as well as natural attractions.”
Well, visitor growth was 4% in 2014, but that was before an agreement on sanctions (and, EM, should know, they have not been lifted, but some may be lifted.) On a 5mn total, small numerical increases could produce big percentage growth – but all this hardly deserves such puerile descriptions as ‘hotspot’ and ‘scramble’. We would be surprised if the 2015 total reaches as much as 6mn.
We also wonder if EM wants us to note that there is a difference for potential travellers between Iran’s ‘ancient Persian history’ and its ‘Persian history’. We are not qualified to make any comment on any difference.
Technology start-ups changing the face of Africa.
“With technology start-ups flourishing across the continent, Africa is entering a new era of innovation, which will help change the perception to international tourists.”
Although this ‘changing the face’ is a super-exaggeration, does the creation of start-ups – anywhere - motivate travellers?
Luxury hotels keeping in with the crowd.
“Luxury hotels are turning to crowdsourcing and crowdfunding to get their properties financed, rather than relying on traditional sources of investment.”
Please EM, put this into perspective. Under-1% of funding of the under-5% of hotels in the luxury category?
The sharing economy heads to China.
“After a shaky start, the sharing economy is taking off in China, with the rise of new local players in 2014, a trend boosted by the number of Chinese millennials.”
Finally, something we can agree with! But hardly news. And, of course, the sharing economy is taking off in most places, with or without the help from millennials.
Travel for the Indian unbanked.
“Travel firms are adopting ‘cash-on-delivery’ payments to cater to the half a billion Indians without a bank account.”
Yes again, but this is not a new phenomenon.

end

 

 


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Main contents in current issues of our newsletters, reports, and other outlets:

What-You-Should-Know, Asia Pacific: Asia Pacific visitor forecasts. Airline financial results compared, Travel Stocks Indices, March travel stocks, Airlines in Asia Pacific. Plus: Market Monitor; ZERO; Market Headlines; People-in-Travel; Net Value; and 10 regular tables of market data.

What-You-Should-Know, Europe: WTTC wrong counts. IATA outlooks. Plus: Market Monitor; ZERO; People-in-Travel; Net Value; Market Headlines; and 10 regular tables of market data.

Net Value: Travel-tech stocks; ‘Things’; others.

People-in-Travel: Expedia gets new leader; others.

ZERO: IATA misses EV test; others.

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